Transcript Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation Through

SYNERGIES BETWEEN MITIGATION
AND ADAPTATION THROUGH
AGROFORESTRY AND COMMUNITY
FORESTRY
Louis Verchot
1800
Climate Change
is Here
Kigoma
Mbala
1600
Lake Tanganyika:
Steady increase in
rainfall over last century
Total Rainfall
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
Fournier Index of rainfall agressivity
4000
Kigoma
Mbala
Steady increase in
rainfall intensity
(erosivity) over last
century
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
1900
1920
1940
1960
Year
1980
2000
Climate Change is Here
Observed Changes
1950-1995
Green = wetter
Orange = drier
(Source: Goddard and Graham, 1999)
What can we expect from
climate in the future?
Short answer: more of the same!
Maize yield
Change in yields
<-2000
-1000
-250
+250
+1000
>2000
Jones and Thornton (2003)
Jones and Thornton (2003)
Despite the efforts of scientific and development
organizations increase in agricultural productivity in
SSA is slow.
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
All cereals (5.2 hg ha-1 over 33 years)
Maize productivity (t ha-1)
Productivity (t ha-1)
1.1
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Maize (6.8 kg ha-1 over 33 years)
Source: FAOSTAT
Maize productivity (t ha-1)
Since 1985 cereal yields have stagnated.
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
1985
1990
1995
Year
Source: FAOSTAT
2000
Harvested area (x 106 ha)
Increases in agricultural production in Sub-Saharan
Africa have been largely through the extensification
of agriculture.
90
80
70
60
50
40
1970
1980
1990
Year
Source: FAOSTAT
2000
The result is increasing food insecurity
in SSA
How does all this relate to regional
development aspirations?
The combination of population growth,
expansion of farming to marginal land,
inappropriate agricultural practices, and climate
change leads to some dramatic land
degradation, which compromises future
sustainable development.
We need to consider ‘adaptation’ for agricultural
productivity because
• The primary drivers of Clim are not going to stop
• Global conventions are not sufficiently effective to stop the
increase of GHG concentrations
• Mitigation effects will only provide a partial ‘softening’ of the
effects of CC
• Therefore, local climates and terrestrial ecosystems will
change, threatening biota and human livelihood,
Yet, we hope that food & fibre production,
‘environmental services’ and ‘rural livelihoods’ can
improve, not just maintained
Farm level sustainability challenges
C signal
*
**
**
*
*
Land access
Markets (inputs, outputs; access, prices)
Knowledge (basic principles, innovative cap.)
Technologies (strategic & tactical interventions)
Water (drought, flooding, irrigation, drainage)
Soil fertility
Pest & disease
On-farm labour (HH size, off-farm act., illness)
Weeds
Potential production of germplasm used
Angry neighbours
Dissatisfied customers
In addition to C sequestration
Agroforestry and community
forestry can help reduce the
pressure on forests by raising
the productivity of land
Short and Long duration fallows
Senna siamea (Chipata, Zambia)
Single species fallows of Crotalaria and
sesbania (Mutumbu, w.Kenya)
Improved fallows can contribute to
increased grain yield
7
SED
-1
Grain yield (t ha )
6
5
4
3
2
1
Control
Fertilizer
Glircidia fallow
0
1995
(580)
1996
(1158)
1997
(927)
1998
(1077)
1999
(1209)
2000
(789)
Year
(Annual rainfall (mm))
Data: Msekera, Zambia P. Mafongoya
2001
(1342)
2002
(832)
2003
(1402)
Biological Nitrogen fixation (kg ha-1) by coppicing
fallow species across sites in eastern Zambia.
Species/provenances
Acacia angustisma-34/88
Kalicero
158
Kalunga
374
Calliandra.calothyrsus-Embu
69
187
Grilicidia. Sepium-Retalhuleu
190
464
Leucaena collinsii-45/88
301
331
Leucaena pallida
91
119
Improved fallows decrease soil
erosion losses
Tephrosia
Minimum tillage
Tephrosia
Conventional tillage
Crotalaria
Minimum tillage
Crotalaria
Conventional tillage
Continuous maize
Minimum tillage
Continuous maize
conventional tillage
0
400
800
1200
Soil loss (kg ha-1)
1600
2000
Infiltration rates are higher under fallows
(Msekera, eastern Zambia)
Infiltration rate (mm hr -1)
40
30
20
10
0
Sesbania sesban Tephrosia vogelii
Natural fallow
Treatments
October 2000
Source; Nyamadzowo et al 2002
October 2001
Maize with
fertilizer
Siratro
There are significant mitigation potentials
through forestry sinks
Source: IPCC LULUCF Report
Wetland restoration
Restoration degraded lands
Agroforestry
Forest management
Grazingland management
Rice management
Cropland management
0
10
20
30
40
Gt CO2e
50
60
70
80
C sequestration in AF and CF
Vegetation Carbon
(Mg ha-1)
400
Primary Forest
300
Managed forest
200
100
Tree-based systems
From ASB Climate Change Working Group,Palm et al.
Crops, Pastures,
Grasslands
Costs of enhancing sinks using
CF and AF
Back of the envelope
calculation
IPCC LULUCF report suggested that within 10
years:
• 10% of land could be under improved pasture
management
• 20 % of available land could be under improved
agroforestry
By 2040, 40% of the available land could be
under improved agroforestry
Agroforest Production Systems
Multistory systems with
tree crops
Examples:
Pine, coffee, banana
system, Indonesia
Peach Palm, Peru
Jungle rubber system,
Indonesia
Cacao systems,
Cameroon
C accumulation in a model
woodlot system in W. Kenya
SOIL CARBON
DEAD WOOD MASS
LITTER MASS
BELOW GROUND BIOMASS
ABOVE GROUND BIOMASS
Net biomass and carbon stocks
(tonnes per hectare)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
5
10
15
Time (Years)
20
25
Scenarios of C sequestration
Permanent
agroforestry (IPCC)
Time
(years)
Land
area
(M ha)
conversion Rate of C
C
of area
gain
(%)
(tC ha-1 y-1) (Mt y-1)
Community forestry
(ENCOFOR)
Rate of C
gain
(tC ha-1 y-1)
Carbon
(Mt y-1)
Agroforestry
10
630
20
3.1
391
1.26
159
20
27
521
212
30
33
651
265
Costs over two rotations
• Plantation establishment – $780
• Operational costs – $440
• C monitoring – $190
• C documentation – $60
• Total costs – $1470 per ha
• Equivalent of $10.04 per tCO2e
Applying the concept of additionality, C finance only
has to overcome the financial barrier in years 1-3
2500
IRR = 22% w/o
C finance
Cash flow ($)
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
Year
Rotation agroforestry
$4.36 per tCO2e
Permanent agroforestry $1.77 per tCO2e
17
19
21
23
25
Recommendations
• Need to make C finance work for multiple
benefits including poverty reduction.
• Need to make C finance work in countries that do
not necessarily have high deforestation
emissions levels
• Need for demonstration projects that generate
real benefits in rural communities
Some first steps to accomplish this
• Overcome the technical constraints of
measurement and monitoring
• Address institutional constraints in developing
countries (CDM and JI are bureaucratic)
• Address the thorny issue of permanence within the
context of sustainable development
• Establish standards of meeting the sustainable
development goals
• We need project development tools for
partners in these countries