Transcript Slide 1

Profiles and Projections
Latino Children Today and Tomorrow
Linda A. Jacobsen
Population Reference Bureau
NCLR Symposium
October 22, 2009
The Number and Share of All Children Who Are
Latino Is Growing Rapidly
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and National Center for Health Statistics
Components of Population Change: 2007-2008
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Latino Women Average about Three Children
3.5
3.0 3.0
3.0
2.6
2.5
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.1 2.1
2.0
1.9 1.9
1.9
1.8
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
U.S. Total
White nonHispanic
Black nonHispanic
1990
Source: National Center for Health Statistics
Hispanic
2006
Asian/Pacific
Islander
American Indian
Distribution of Children by Race and Ethnicity:
1990, 2008, and 2030
*Non-Hispanic. Estimates for 2008 and 2030 for Whites, Blacks and Others are for those who identify with only one race.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and National Center for Health Statistics
In 1990, Latino Children Were Primarily
Concentrated in the Southwest and Florida
Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Decennial Census.
Today, Latinos Make Up an Increasing Share of
Children in the Midwest and Southeast
Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
National Center for Health Statistics; “Bridged-Race Vintage 2008 Postcensal
Estimates,” prepared in collaboration with U.S. Census Bureau.
Latino Youth Have Significant Potential to
Contribute to their Communities and the U.S.
 34 percent of Latinos are under age 18
 Most children are born in the U.S. and most are
U.S. citizens (9 in 10)
 Strong families: almost two-thirds (66%) live with
two parents
Latino Children and Youth Also Face Some
Significant Challenges
 Economic Security
 Education
 Health
 Language Barriers
Economic Security
 More than one-fourth
live in poverty
 Three-fifths (60%) live in
low-income families
(below 200% of poverty)
Education
 More than one-fourth of
Latino 4 year-olds are not
enrolled in early
childhood education
programs
 Only 55 percent of ninth
graders graduate from
high school on time
Health
 One in five (19%) do not
have health insurance
 Among children ages 10
to 17, about 4 in every 10
(41%) are overweight or
obese
Language Barriers
 One-fourth live in
linguistically isolated
households
 Almost one-fifth (18%)
have difficulty speaking
English
If These Challenges are not Addressed,
What Are the Implications?
Two Possible Scenarios:
 Current risk factors (rates) remain
unchanged from now until 2030
 Current risk factors (rates) change
between now and 2030
Latino Children Will Make Up a Larger Share of
All Children in High Risk Groups
Scenario One: Same Rates In 2030
Share Today
In poverty
Low-income families
Linguistically isolated
Overweight or obese
No health insurance
32%
31%
65%
22%
42%
Share in 2030
44%
44%
74%
37%
56%
Latino Child Poverty Declined in the 1990s, But
Has Risen Again in Recent Years
Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
Scenario Two: Potential Changes
 Child Poverty Rate
 What if it rose to 1990 level of 38 percent?
 Share of Children Overweight/Obese
 What if it increases by an additional 3 percentage
points to 44 percent?
 Share of Children without Health Insurance
 What if it decreases by an additional 2 percentage
points to 17 percent?
How Many Latino Children Could be
Affected?
Today*
2030*
In poverty
4.1
10.2
Overweight or obese
2.2
5.2
No health insurance
2.7
4.6
*In millions
Stay Tuned in 2010!
NCLR State-Level Report
Regional Variations
in Well-Being and
Key Trends Since 2000