Transcript The Outlook for Ethanol, Corn, and Beef

The Outlook for Ethanol, Corn, and
Beef
Chad Hart
Center for Agricultural and Rural Development &
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute
Iowa State University
[email protected]
515-294-9911
Beef Quality Summit: Beef Quality in the Ethanol Era
Omaha, Nebraska
November 8, 2007
Outline
•Look at key variables for ethanol,
crops, and beef sectors
•FAPRI March 2007 Baseline
•FAPRI August 2007 Update
Model Interactions
U.S. Ethanol Industry
Current ethanol capacity:
131 plants, 6.92 billion
gallons/year
Total capacity under
construction and expansion:
6.56 billion gallons/year
73 new ethanol plants and
10 expansion projects
underway
2.2 billion bushels of corn were used in producing fuel ethanol in 2006/2007 marketing year.
3.2-3.5 billion bushels of corn are expected to be used in producing fuel ethanol for 2007/2008
marketing year.
Projected U.S. Ethanol Production
billion gallons
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Wholesale Gasoline and Ethanol Prices
US$/gallon
3.00
2.75
2.50
2.25
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
2006
2008
Unleaded Gasoline
2010
Ethanol
2012
Projected U.S. Corn Acreage
million acres
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Corn Production
billion bushels
15
15
14
14
13
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Corn Prices
$/bushel
3.40
3.40
3.35
3.35
3.30
3.30
3.25
3.25
3.20
3.20
3.15
3.15
3.10
3.10
3.05
3.05
3.00
3.00
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected Utilization of U.S. Corn
million bushels
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2006
2007
Feed
2008
Fuel
HFCS
2009
2010
Seed
Food, Other
2011
Exports
2012
Projected U.S. Wheat Acreage
million acres
65
65
63
63
61
61
59
59
57
57
55
55
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Wheat Prices
$/bushel
5.20
5.20
5.00
5.00
4.80
4.80
4.60
4.60
4.40
4.40
4.20
4.20
4.00
4.00
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Soybean Acreage
million acres
80
80
75
75
70
70
65
65
60
60
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Soybean Prices
$/bushel
8.40
8.40
8.00
8.00
7.60
7.60
7.20
7.20
6.80
6.80
6.40
6.40
6.00
6.00
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Soybean Meal Prices
$/ton
220.00
220.00
210.00
210.00
200.00
200.00
190.00
190.00
180.00
180.00
170.00
170.00
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Hay Acreage
million acres
62.5
62.5
62.0
62.0
61.5
61.5
61.0
61.0
60.5
60.5
60.0
60.0
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Distillers Grains Production
million tons
45
45
35
35
25
25
15
15
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Distillers Grains Prices
$/ton
115.00
115.00
105.00
105.00
95.00
95.00
85.00
85.00
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Beef Cows (Jan. 1)
million head
35
35
34
34
33
33
32
32
31
31
30
30
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Cattle and Calves (Jan. 1)
million head
100
100
99
99
98
98
97
97
96
96
95
95
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Beef Production
billion pounds
30
30
29
29
28
28
27
27
26
26
25
25
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Beef Domestic Use
billion pounds
30
30
29.5
29.5
29
29
28.5
28.5
28
28
27.5
27.5
27
27
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Cattle Prices
$/cwt.
95
95
92
92
89
89
86
86
83
83
80
80
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
1100-1300 lb. NE Direct Steers
2012
Projected U.S. Beef Retail Prices
$/lb.
4.50
4.50
4.30
4.30
4.10
4.10
3.90
3.90
3.70
3.70
3.50
3.50
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Projected U.S. Cow-Calf Net Returns
$/cow
100.00
100.00
75.00
75.00
50.00
50.00
25.00
25.00
0.00
0.00
-25.00
-25.00
-50.00
-50.00
2006
2008
Aug-07
2010
Mar-07
2012
Thank You