Transcript PLANNING SUPPORT SYSTEMS Data Acquisition, Database …

Rule-Based Land-Use Models
Richard E. Klosterman
July 20, 2015
Land-Use Modeling Techniques
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Spatial interaction models
Spatial input-output models
Micro-simulation models
State-change models
Cellular automata models
Systems dynamics models
Rule-based models
Spatial Interaction Models
• Model spatial interaction and land use-transportation
interaction between zones
• Examples
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Lowry model – Ira Lowry (1964)
DRAM/EMPAL – Steve Putman
Spatial Input-Output Models
• Use input-output framework to model location and
movement of good and people between zones
• Examples
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MEPLAN – Marcial Echenique
TRANUS – Thomas de la Bara
PECAS – J. Douglas Hunt
Micro-Simulation Models
• Use economic data to model behavior of individual
actors
• Examples
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UrbanSim – Paul Waddell
CUBE Land
State-Change Models
• Use information at two points in time to calibrate
statistical model relating observed land use change to
set of independent variables
• Independent variables used to project future land use
changes
• Example
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California Urban Futures, 2 –John Landis
Cellular Automata Models
• Represent region with lattice of cells and use
transition rules to model cell states over time
• Cell changes function of their current state and
neighboring cells
• Calibrated from historical growth trends
• Example
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SLEUTH (Slope, Land cover, Exclusion, Urbanization,
Transportation, and Hill shade) – Keith Clarke
System Dynamics Models
• Represent region with a model of stocks and flows
between elements assumed to cause change
• Example
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LEAM (Land use Evolution & impact Assessment
Model) – University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Rule-Based Models…
• Incorporate explicit decision rules which determine
the implications of user-specified assumptions
• Impact models
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CommunityViz – Placeways, LLC
INDEX – Criterion, Inc.
• Growth models
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UPLAN – Robert Johnson, UC, Davis
What if? – What if?, Inc.
Example – What if? 2.0
• Projects
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Residential and employment-related land uses
Residential and group quarters population
Housing units, households, and average household size
Employment by place of work for 19 NAICS sectors
• For
• Census tracts and block groups
• TAZs
• Any user-defined areas
Over 150 Customers
• Across United States
• Internationally
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Australia
China
Italy
Korea
Malaysia
Mexico
Poland
Spain
Taiwan
GIS Data Layers
• Existing land uses
• Estimated population and employment for block
groups (obtained from ESRI)
• Current and proposed infrastructure
• Land use controls
What if?
• Balances
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Supply of land -- Suitability scenarios
Demand for land -- Demand scenarios
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Allocation controls -- Allocation scenarios
Suitability Scenarios
• Reflect user’s assumptions concerning
• Development potential
• Natural features (slopes, floodplain, etc..)
• Access to amenities and disamenities
• Public policies
• Open space/environmental protection policies
• Public desires
• Development preferences
Suitability Scenarios
• Waupaca County, Wisconsin
• Received state planning grant for preparation
of county-wide plans and 33 local plans
• Prepared over 250 suitability scenarios at 15
public meetings, involving hundreds of
participants
Suitability Scenario Creation Process
• Base maps were reviewed and corrected by
local planning commissioners
• Helped citizens become more familiar with
their local landscape and fostered ownership
in the information used in analysis
• Suitability maps were developed through
consistent and open process in public
meetings
Suitability Scenarios
• Provided concrete answers to questions such
as “What if we preserve farm land?”
• Suitability maps—and the decisions on which
they were based—were defensible and
transparent
Residential Suitability – No Controls
• Suitability from
developers’ perspective
• No public policies for
controlling growth
• 20,000 acres suitable for
residential development
Residential Suitability – Farm Preservation
• Assumes policy of
prohibiting development
on prime agricultural
soils or near dairy farms
• 12,300 acres suitable for
residential development
Residential Suitability – Environmental Protection
• Assumes policy of
prohibiting development
in wetlands, floodplains,
or near rivers/streams
• 12,000 acres suitable for
residential development
Residential Suitability – Farmland and
Environmental Protection
• Assumes policies of
farmland and
environmental policies
• Only 5,400 acres suitable
for residential
development
Demand Scenarios
• Reflect user’s assumptions concerning
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Projected residential growth, housing trends and
densities
Projected employment growth and densities
Public policies for conserving land
Projected demand for local land uses
Allocation Scenarios
• Combine
• Suitability and demand scenarios
• Public policies for controlling growth
• Staged expansion of infrastructure
• Growth pattern assumptions
Allocation Scenario Outputs
• Land use maps
• Current and projected land uses for parcels by year
• Reports
• Projected land uses, population and employment by
year for user-defined areas
• Shape files
• Current and projected land uses, population and
employment by year for user-defined areas
Dublin, Ohio – Current Land Use Map
2030 Land Uses – Low Growth, No Controls
2030 Land Uses – High Growth, No Controls
2030 Land Uses – Medium Growth, No Controls
2030 Land Uses – Medium Growth With Plan
Strengths of Rule-Based Models
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Low cost
Tied directly to GIS
Smaller data requirements
Easy to understand and implement
Policy-oriented
Can be linked with other models (e.g., TransCAD)
Appropriate for public hearings
Weaknesses of Rule-Based Models
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Do not consider spatial interaction and markets
Do not consider land use-transportation interaction
Not widely adopted for transportation applications
Cannot be calibrated
Questions or Comments?