Transcript Slide 1

Food Security and
Nutrition Analysis Unit
Somalia
Livelihood-based
Food Security
Monitoring/Early
Warning in Somalia
Nairobi, 26 September, 2011
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Food Security Analysis Unit (FSNAU)
Field Staff Distribution and Locations
Somali Livelihoods, Food Security and
Nutrition Information and Analysis Unit
•
Baseline Livelihoods Analysis
•
Seasonal & Emergency Assessments
•
Early Warning Monitoring
•
Nutrition Situation Analysis
•
Integrated Food Security Analysis
•
Applied Research
1.
Information is Used to Inform:
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Humanitarian Appeals & Response
•
Development Programming
•
Project Monitoring
•
Strategic Planning
2.
Total staff number: 68
•
Field Analysts: 30

14 Nutrition Analysts

16 Food Security Analysts
•
NBI Based Staff: 38

Food Security Team

Nutrition Team
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Data Systems Team
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Operation Support Team
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Network of Field Data Enumerators: 91
Foundation of FSNAU Food Security and
Nutrition analysis
1.
Baseline description and
understanding of livelihoods
2.
Main Components:
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Livelihood Assets & Strategies
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Coping, Seasonality, Gender
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Shocks & Hazards
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Early Warning Indicators
•
Underlying Causes of
Vulnerability
3.
FSNAU Information Products:
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Livelihood Zone Maps
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Livelihood Baseline Data
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Livelihood Zone Reports
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Livelihood Profiles
Somali Livelihood Systems/Zones
 A total of 33 rural livelihood zones :
o Riverine (5);
o Agropastoral (14);
o Pastoral (14)
 Total area under rural LZs: 634sq.km
o Pastoral (74%);
o Agropastoral (24%);
o Riverine (2%)
 Total rural population: 4.5mln people
o Pastoral (48%);
o Agropastoral (43%);
o Riverine (9%)
 Major concentrations of LZ populations:
o Pastoral - North and Central (70%);
o Agropastoral - South (88% );
o Riverine - South (100%)
Importance of Agriculture and Livestock in
Somalia
Food source of the poor:
 Farming LZ: 60-70% comes
from own production of
cereals
 Pastoral LZs: 15-20% (livestock
products)
Income source of the poor:
 Farming LZ: 60-70% of crop
sales, farm labour and zakat
 Pastoral LZs: 70-80% from
livestock/livestock product
sales, zakat
Main Crops and Livestock Species
Crop Areas
Livestock areas
FSNAU Monitoring System
Seasonal: assessments - Deyr and Gu (primary data)
• Crop: Cereal (maize, sorghum) planting , harvesting, production; inputs
and irrigation, cash crop production; cereal flow; stocks, post-harvest
losses, etc.
• Livestock: rainfall performance, pasture conditions, water conditions and
prices, migration patterns, livestock conception, calving/kidding, off-take,
debt level, food and income sources, etc.
Monthly:
• Rainfall Performance – satellite imagery (Spot and NOAA), rain-gauges
(Fewsnet and SWALIM), ground-truthing
• Cereal availability on the markets - primary
• Livestock and cereals prices, daily labour wage rates, import commodity
prices, etc. - primary
• Cereal imports (cross-border and official through ports) - secondary
• Relief food assistance statistics - secondary
Agricultural Seasonality
Cereals
Zone
Irrigated maize
Rain-fed maize
Sorghum (Irrigated in
Hiran)
Sorghum (long cycle)
Rain-fed maize
South
South
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Deyr wet season
Feb
Mar
Apr
Jilaal dry season
May
Jun
Jul
Gu wet season
Aug
Sep
Hagaa dry season
South
NW
NW
land preparation
planting
weeding
harvesting
Cereals
Zone
Off-season sesame, Juba , Shabelle, Hiran
maize and cowpea and Gedo Riverine
Oct
Nov
Dec
Deyr wet season
Jan
Feb
Mar
Jilaal dry season
Apr
May
Jun
Gu wet season
Jul
Aug
Sep
Hagaa dry season
Pastoral Seasonality
Livestock Species
Oct
Nov
Dec
Deyr wet season
Jan
Feb
Mar
Jilaal dry season
Apr
May
Jun
Gu wet season
Jul
Aug
Sep
Hagaa dry season
Sheep&goat
Cattle
Camel
Conception
Calving/kidding
Peak of Normal Sales
Peak of distress sales
Normal selling peak: 70 days window between the end of Ramadan and the beginning of Hajj
Distress selling peak: end of Jilaal
Crop Assessment
District, Village questionnaires (KI, focus groups); Cereal flow
(traders, grain trade brokers, store owners, etc)
Pastoral Assessment
Key informant questionnaire on seasonal performance; Pastoral
households on herd dynamics, food source, debts, etc.
Climate
Gu 2011 Rainfall Performance
Gu 2011 RFE percentage of Normal
July 2011 NDVI Absolute
Difference from LTM
Crop Performance (Gu 2011)
Failed sorghum production. Tubaako, Baardera Gedo, July 2011
Failed crop. Malaaley, Jammame, L. Juba, FSNAU, July 2011
Average Maize Crop. Mandhere, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July ‘11
Average Maize Crop. Mandhere, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July ‘11
Cereal Availability (Gu 2011)
Calendar year cereal harvests in southern Somalia
(1996-2011) compared to average
Cereal Balance for Somalia(Mt. Tons)
Food Access in Crop Livelihoods (Gu 2011)
SOSH Shabelle & Juba Riverine-Trends in White Maize
Prices
Jamame
25,000
Jiliib
Qorioley
North West -Trend in White Sorghum Prices
SLSH
Hargeisa
Jowhar
20,000
Borama
SOSH
Burao
Togwajale
8,000
14000
7,000
12000
6,000
15,000
10000
5,000
10,000
4,000
5,000
3,000
8000
6000
4000
2,000
2000
1,000
Month
Sorghum Belt-Trends in Red Sorghum Prices
SOSH
Terms of Trade: daily wage to cereals
25,000
Bardera
Beletweyne
Baidoa
Huddur
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Month
Jul-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Mar-10
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-09
Nov-08
Jul-08
Mar-08
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-07
Nov-06
Jul-06
Mar-06
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-05
Jul-04
Nov-04
0
Jul-11
Mar-11
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-10
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-09
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-08
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-07
Jul-06
Nov-06
Mar-06
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-05
0
Jul-04
0
Nov-04
Month
Jul-11
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-10
Mar-10
Jul-09
Nov-09
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-08
Mar-08
Jul-07
Nov-07
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-06
Mar-06
Jul-05
Nov-05
Nov-04
Mar-05
Jul-04
0
Pastoral Assessments
Rahmo Camp. Coastal LZ, Beyla town, Bari region, FSNAU, July 2011
Good body & pasture condition. Hawd Hargeisa, FSNAU July 2011
Livestock Carcass. Nugaal Valley, Sool, FSNAU, July 2011
LIVESTOCK
Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Region
Calving/kidding
( Gu ’11 )
Milk production
( Gu ’11 )
Camel: Low
Sh/goat: Low except
Golis/Guban: Low to
Medium
Camel: Low
Sheep/Goats: Medium with
exception Sool and Coastal
Deeh (Low)
Below average all regions,
but average in W. Galbeed
& Awdal
Camel: Low
Sheep/goat: Medium
Camel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend for
all livelihoods, except Golis/Guban where all
species are above Baseline)
Sh/goats: Low
Camel: Below Average
Camel : Low
Sh/goats: Medium
Camel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
Camel : Low
Sheep/Goat: Medium
Sh/Goat: Low to Medium
for Coastal Deeh and
Cowpea Belt
Sh/goats: Low
Camel: Below Average
Camel: Low to None
Sh/Goat: Medium to Low
Camel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
Camel /Cattle: Low
Sh/Goat: Low to Medium,
except Agropastoral Low to
None
Low for all species in all
livelihoods
Low to None for All species
Cattle/sh/goat: Very low
Camel: below averge
Cowpea Belt and Coastal
Deeh: Low to None for all
species
Camel : Low
Cattle: Low
Sh/Goat: Low to Medium
Camel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
Cattle: Below baseline (decreasing trend)
Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
Camel: Low
Cattle: Low
Sh/goat: Medium
Very Low for all species
Camel /Cattle: Low to None
Sh/goat: Low to Medium
Camel: Low to Medium
Cattle: Low to None
Sh/goat: Low to Medium
Low to None for all species
Camel: Low to Medium
Sh/goat and Cattle:
Low to None
Conception
NW
Camel: Low to Medium
Sh/goat: Medium
NE
Camel : Low
Sh/Goat: Low to Medium
with exception of Coastal
Deeh (Low)
Central
Camel : Low to None
Sh/Goat: Medium to Low
Hiran
Shabelle
Juba
Gedo
Bay/Bakool Low to None for All species
Camel: Low to Medium
Sh/goat and Cattle:
Low to None
Expected calving/ kidding
(Jul-Dec ’11)
Herd Size Projection (up to Dec. ‘11)
Camel : Low
Cattle: Low to None
Shoats: Medium
Very Low cattle,
Camel: Medium to Low
sheep/goats but average
Cattle: Low to None
for camel
Sheep/Goats: Low to
Medium
Camel: Below Average
Camel: Low
Cattle and Sheep:
Cattle, Sh/Goats: Low to
Significantly below average None
All Species: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
Camel: Below Average
Low for All species
Cattle and Sheep: Very Low
Camel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
Cattle: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
Camel: Above Baseline (decreasing trend)
Cattle: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
Sheep/goats: Below Baseline (increasing trend)
Camel: Below Baseline (Decreasing trend)
Cattle: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
Food Access in Pastoral Areas
Price per Head of Goat (SOSH)
NE
Central
NW (SLSH)
1,600,000
400,000
1,400,000
350,000
1,200,000
300,000
1,000,000
250,000
800,000
200,000
600,000
150,000
400,000
100,000
200,000
50,000
0
0
Month
Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Maize, Sorghum to Goat
Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Rice to Goat
Central (Red Rice)
100
90
Kg per Head
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Month
NE(Red Rice)
Price per Head of Goat (SLSH)
Trend Local Quality Goat Prices in Northern and Central regions
Trend Local Quality Goat Prices in Southern Regions
Livestock Exports
550
Camel Exports
Hargesia Price
Cattle Exports
Galkayo Price
Shoats Exports
Burao Price
500
Total Annual Livestock Exports
Compared to 5 Year Average
80
70
450
400
60
350
50
300
40
250
200
30
150
20
100
Price Per Head (US$)
Livestock Exports (Heads) in Thousands
Bossaso: Livestock Exports (Heads) and
Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)
10
50
0
0
Month
Camel Exports
Hargesia Price
Cattle Exports
Galkayo Price
Shoats Exports
Burao Price
1,000
80
900
70
800
60
700
600
50
500
40
400
30
300
20
200
10
100
0
0
Month
Price Per Head (US$)
Livestock Exports (Heads) in Thousands
Berbera: Livestock Exports (Heads) and
Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)
* 2011 up to July
Oct-Dec seasonal rainfall forecast
Sept. – Nov. 2011
Oct. – Dec. 2011
Nov. 2011 – Jan. 2012
Dec. 2012 – Feb. 2012
Source: ECMWF
1. In the most-likely scenario the Oct-Dec rains are expected to start on time and overall season
totals are expected to be average, though rains during the second half of the season are likely to
be less favorable.
2. The consensus-based climate outlook concluded on the 29th Forum of Greater Horn of Africa
Climate Outlook (1-3 Sep. ’11) predicts near normal rainfall with a slight tendency to above
normal in southern regions; near normal to below normal in Central and North, apart from
Awdal region (near to above normal).
20
Likely Price Movement in Southern Somalia (Sep-Dec 2011)
Staple cereal prices and projections - Baidoa
Staple cereal prices and projections - Qorioley
21
Food Security Outcomes
Food Security Outcomes (Aug – Sep ’11)
Projected Food Security Outcomes (Oct-Dec ’11)
22
Thank You