Transcript Project Aardvark - Amazon Web Services
Goldman Stanley, Inc.
Project Aardvark
Presentation to the Board of Directors January 29, 2010 Goldman Stanley Confidential Draft
Table Of Contents
Executive Summary Aardvark Valuation Potential Acquisitions Process Recommendations Appendix Goldman Stanley 3 5 11 16 19
Executive Summary
Goldman Stanley
Executive Summary
• • • • • • As of January 29, 2010, Aardvark’s share price and valuation are at all-time highs, having more than doubled since early 2009 As Aardvark’s stock price has soared in value, it has also generated over $35B in cash & cash-equivalents As Aardvark’s cash balance grows, it is likely to face shareholder pressure to re invest the cash in its business and to make significant acquisitions Given Aardvark’s strong currency and cash balance, it could easily make several “tuck-in” acquisitions – or larger-scale acquisitions to acquire customers Such a strategy would allow Aardvark to capture more of the smartphone, laptop, and desktop markets, and significantly improve its software offerings Given Aardvark’s cash position, such acquisitions could be made with 100% cash – or in the case of a larger deal, stock could also be used Goldman Stanley
Aardvark Valuation
Goldman Stanley
Valuation Summary
• • • • • Aardvark’s current share price of $192.61 far exceeds the value implied by comparable public companies Recent comparable transactions show higher implied valuation ranges due to flurry of consolidation and hardware M&A activity over 2009 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis under base-case assumptions shows implied valuation on par with Aardvark’s current share price, implying that share price is justified All valuation analysis is based on “base-case” financial projections in line with Wall Street analyst expectations Given Aardvark’s cash balance and high valuation multiples vs. similar public companies, few competitors are well-positioned to make substantial acquisitions Goldman Stanley
Aardvark Valuation Summary
Goldman Stanley
Aardvark Comparable Public Companies
Goldman Stanley
Aardvark Precedent Transactions
Goldman Stanley
Aardvark Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
DCF Assumptions: Discount Rate: 12.5% Terminal EBITDA Multiple: 7.0 x Model Uses “Base Case” Financial Projections Mid-Year Convention Used For PV Of Cash Flows
Goldman Stanley
Potential Acquisitions
Goldman Stanley
Potential Acquisitions
• • • Given Aardvark’s large cash balance, it could make a wide variety of acquisitions – ranging from small “tuck-in” deals to acquire technology and IP to larger deals driven by customer or market share acquisition Tier 1 Potential Acquisitions – “Tier 1” acquisition candidates are worth over $1 billion and would significantly boost Aardvark’s market share or result in substantial revenue or cost synergies – Leading candidates include ARM, for its chipset technology and integration with Aardvark’s existing products, and Research in Motion – to capture additional share in the corporate smartphone market Tier 2 Potential Acquisitions – “Tier 2” acquisition candidates are worth less than $1 billion and would enhance Aardvark’s core technology and fill in gaps in existing products – Potential acquisitions include specialized chipset and semiconductor companies as well as Web 2.0, social media, and mobile software companies Goldman Stanley
Potential Acquisition Candidates
Tier 1 Acquisition Candidates Tier 2 Acquisition Candidates Goldman Stanley
Company Profile: ARM
ARM Holdings
Warren East Tudor Brown Graham Budd Headquarters: Employees: Founded: Market Cap: Cash: 2009 Revenue: 2009 EPS: 2010E Revenue: Cambridge, UK Mike Muller John Cornish Ian Drew Antonio Viana 2010E EPS: $10.97
Goldman Stanley •
Processors
– ARM provides 32-bit embedded microprocessors based on a common architecture that delivers high-performance, power efficiency, and reduced system cost.
•
System IP
– Serves as the connection between processors, memory, and peripherals to ensure optimum performance.
•
Multimedia
– ARM provides graphics processors that enable embedded graphics, audio, and video applications. •
Physical IP
– Provides SoC integrated circuits and logic, embedded memory, and interface IP.
•
Tools
– ARM subsidiaries provide compilers, debuggers, simulators, and other optimization tools for a wide variety of chip and processor families.
Management Team:
CEO President COO CTO CFO EVP, Systems EVP, Marketing EVP, Sales
Company Profile: Research In Motion
Research In Motion
Headquarters: Employees: Founded: Waterloo, ON 12,000 1984
Management Team:
Research In Motion designs the BlackBerry smartphone and creates solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market, including a variety of software for the BlackBerry device. In addition to its line of BlackBerry devices, the company also provides enterprise server software to support businesses using the device.
Jim Balsillie Mike Lazaridis Don Morrison Robin Bienfait Brian Bidulka David Yach Co-CEO Co-CEO COO CIO CFO CTO
Financial Information:
Market Cap: Cash: 2009 Revenue: 2009 EPS: 2010E Revenue: 2010E EPS:
Products:
$36B •
BlackBerry Pearl 3G
– Provides Trackpad and dedicated media keys as well as SureType technology and 3G network support.
•
BlackBerry Bold
– Provides extended battery life as well as GPS, Wi-Fi, and 3G network support.
•
BlackBerry Curve 8500
– Includes Trackpad and dedicated media keys, easy media sharing, and 2.0 MP camera.
•
BlackBerry Tour 9630
– Provides GPS, worldwide compatibility, and 3.2 MP camera.
•
BlackBerry Storm
– Features Wi-Fi, SurePress technology, and 3G network support.
•
BlackBerry Curve 8900
– Features thin, lightweight design as well as GPS and Wi-Fi support and 3.2 MP camera.
Vodafone,
Key Partners:
AT&T, Brightstar, Digital China, GPXS, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Skype, Sprint, Tata Indicom, T Mobile, Verizon, Virgin, and Goldman Stanley
Process Recommendations
Goldman Stanley
Key Recommendations
• • • • We recommend engaging in targeted discussions with the Tier 1 acquisition candidates and assessing their receptiveness to M&A discussions At the same time, Goldman Stanley will reach out to Tier 2 candidates and introduce Aardvark as a potential acquirer M&A process with Tier 1 candidates will take significantly longer due to the scale of the companies, so we recommend conducting both processes simultaneously Depending on responses from Tier 1 and Tier 2 candidates, Goldman Stanley and Aardvark may do additional research to determine other potential acquisitions and then approach them Goldman Stanley
Process Recommendation
Broad Marketing Goldman Stanley
Appendix
Goldman Stanley
Aardvark Projected Income Statement
Goldman Stanley
Aardvark Comparable Public Companies
Goldman Stanley
Aardvark DCF Analysis – WACC Calculation
Goldman Stanley