Transcript Slide 1

Third International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th -17th October 2008
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Annele Eerola
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
Ian Miles
University of Manchester, UK
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Contents
Outlines of the presentation
• Multiple faces of FTA
- multiple contexts and objectives
- method developers, general FTA principles
• Making sense of FTA methods and tools
- classification schemes
- examples of methods and tools
• Contribution of the various methods and tools
- for the dynamic process of shared knowledge creation
- for the various phases of the FTA process
• Selecting methods and designing the process
- general guidelines
- important design dimensions
- assessing quality
• Directions for further research
- implications for Theme 1 parallel sessions
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Multiple faces of FTA
Multiple contexts and objectives (1)
• National and regional foresight programmes (Miles et al, 2008)
– creating shared understandings among the societal key actors
– facilitating dynamism, innovation and competitiveness
– developing prospective intelligence for policy-making and strategies
Recent considerations:
– from S&T policy focus towards a more horizontal policy view
– from technology focus to broad-scope societal foresight
– from expert consultation to participatory approaches involving
a wide pool of stakeholders
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Multiple faces of FTA
Multiple contexts and objectives (2)
• Technology Assessment (Johnston, 2008; Rader & Porter, 2008)
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assessing the potential impacts of emerging new technologies
facilitating sound technological developments
providing input for legislative policy options
serving national parliaments and governmental bodies at national,
regional and municipal levels
– US OTA (1974-1995), parliamentary TA & EP STOA, and Danish
Board of Technology as examples
Recent considerations:
– balanced consideration of positive and negative impacts
– balanced consideration of economic, societal, environmental and
ethical perspectives
– external expert analysis vs. constructive technology assessment
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Multiple faces of FTA
Multiple contexts and objectives (3)
• Industrial foresight and roadmapping
(Cuhls & Johnston, 2008)
– examining development drivers and challenges at industry and
company-level
– supporting strategic decision making, innovation and
competitiveness
– creating shared visions and commitment among the key actors
Recent considerations:
– balanced consideration of technology-push vs. demand pull issues
– consideration of the entire value chain, incl. end-users
– broadening the meaning of 'technology' (services, business models
and organisational issues included)
– corporate social responsibility
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Multiple faces of FTA
Developers of methods and tools
• A variety of epistemic communities have influenced the
methodological development of FTA, including
–
–
–
–
–
–
innovation studies
technology foresight
technology assessment
futures research
technology forecasting
business forecasting & roadmapping
(see e.g. Johnston, 2008; Miles, 2008)
• The biennial FTA conferences have provided a new
opportunity for mutual learning and exchange of experiences
since 2004
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Multiple faces of FTA
Some general FTA principles can be defined
(Cagnin & Keenan, 2008)
• Future-orientation
• Participation
• Evidence-based
• Multidisciplinarity
• Coordinated mobilisation of people and resources
• Action orientation
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Types of methods and tools
Various classification schemes
• The previous two FTA conferences have documented a
wide variety of methods and tools contributing to FTA
• A fresh overview can also be found in The Handbook of
Technology Foresight (ed. by Georghiou et al, 2008)
In these contexts, the various methods and tools have been
classified by
– type of technique: qualitative vs. quantitative/semi-quantitative
– type of approach: exploratory vs. normative
– type of knowledge source: expertise-interaction/creativity-evidence
(see e.g. Popper, 2008)
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Types of methods and tools
Examples of qualitative methods in use
• Backcasting
• Brainstorming
• Expert panels, citizens panels, conferences, workshops
• Essays, scenario writing
• SWOT analysis
• Interviews
• Literature reviews
• Morphological analysis
• Relevance trees, logic charts
• Role play, acting
• Environmental scanning, weak signals
• Science fictioning, wildcards, genius forecasting
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Types of methods and tools
Examples of semi-quantitative & quantitative
methods in use
• Critical & key technologies
• Delphi panels & questionnaires
• Gaming-simulation
• Multicriteria analysis, quantitative scenarios
• Polling & voting
• Roadmapping, benchmarking
• System analysis, structural analysis
• Cross-impact analysis
• Patent analysis, bibliometrics
• Indicators and time series analysis
• Trend extrapolation
• Modelling
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
The Foresight Diamond (Popper, 2008)
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Contribution of methods and tools
When and how do methods and tools contribute
• Potential contribution of various methods and tools
has been considered
– for different modes of knowledge conversion in the
dynamic process of shared knowledge creation
 socialization, externalisation, combination, internalization
(Nonaka, 1994; Eerola & Väyrynen, 2002; Eerola & Jørgensen, 2008)
– for different phases of FTA processes
 systemic framework for methods (Saritas, 2006)
 pre-foresight, recruitment, generation, action, renewal
(Miles, 2002/Popper, 2006)
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Contribution of methods and tools
FTA as a dynamic process of shared knowledge creation
Tacit knowledge
Tacit knowledge
Dialogue
Externalization
Socialization
Tacit
knowledge
Core group
Project group
Steering committee
Stakeholder groups
Expert networks
Conferences & seminars
Expert interviews
Delphi surveys, questionnaires
Interactive workshops focusing on
SWOT/visions/scenarios/roadmaps/
and/or action recommendations
Explicit
knowledge
Linking
Field
building
Tacit
knowledge
explicit
Participants' and stakeholders'
pilot projects, R &D activities and
strategy work
Regional and national strategies
and priority setting
International agreements/
strategies/priority setting
Internalization
Reports on desk-top surveys
Background reports for focused
workshops
Reports on the results of
SWOT/scenario/roadmap/action
Integrative reports on foresight process
and results
Conference papers
Project website
Combination
Learning by doing
Explicit knowledge
Explicit knowledge
( Eerola et al, 2002, 2008; SECI by Nonaka, 1994)
knowledge
Explicit
knowledge
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
A systemic framework for methods (Saritas 2006)
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Assessing contribution of methods by FTA phase (Popper, 2006)
Qualitative methods
Methods / Activities
•1
•2
•3
•4
•5
•6
•7
•8
•9
•10
•11
•12
•13
•14
•15
•16
•17
Backcasting
Qualitative
Brainstorming
Qualitative
Citizens panels
Qualitative
Conferences / workshops
Essays / Scenario writing
Expert panels
Qualitative
Genius forecasting
Qualitative
Interviews Qualitative
Literature review
Qualitative
Morphological analysis Qualitative
Relevance trees / logic charts
Role play / Acting
Qualitative
Scanning Qualitative
Scenario workshops Qualitative
Science fictioning
Qualitative
SWOT analysis
Qualitative
Weak signals / Wildcards
*) percentages acc. to the author's assessment
PreRecruit- Generation
foresight ment
50%
10%
10%
60%
10%
40%
10%Qualitat10%iv
40%
10%Qualitative
70%
20%
20%
20%
90%
10%
10%
60%
70%
30%
50%
10%Qualitative
40%
50%
50%
10%
30%
70%
100%
20%
50%
10%Qualitative
50%
Action
50% *)
10%
40%
20%
10%
20%
10%
10%
50%
40%
50%
Renewal
10%
10%
20%
10%
20%
10%
10%
10%
30%
30%
30%
10%
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Assessing contribution of methods by FTA phase (Popper, 2006)
Quantitative & semi-quantitative methods
Methods / Activities
•18
•19
•20
•21
•22
•23
•24
•25
•26
•27
•28
•29
•30
•31
•32
•33
PreRecruit- Generation Action
foresight ment
Critical / key technologies
10%Semi-quantitative
Delphi
Semi-quantitative
Gaming-simulation
Semi-quantitative
Multicriteria analysis
10%
Patent analysis
100%
Polling / voting
20%
Quantitative Scenarios / SMIC
Roadmapping
10%
Stakeholders mapping
10%
20%
System / structural analysis
10%
Benchmarking
40%
20%
Bibliometrics
90%
10%
Cross-impact
Quantitative50%
Indicators and time series
50%Quantitative
Modelling Quantitative
Trend extrapolation
Quantitative30%
*) percentages acc. to the author's assessment only
Renewal
50%
60%
50%
40%
30%
30%
50%
40%
10% *)
10%
30%
90%
10%
20%
50%
40%
30%
10%
70%
40%
40%
20%
50%
30%
60%
50%
10%
10%
10%
20%
40%
20%
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Selecting methods and designing the process
Some general guidelines
(Rader & Porter, 2006)
• Focus on the triad of Data, Theory & Methods
• Use multiple methods
- blend quantitative and qualitative methods
- integrate distinct methodological contributions & multiple judgments
• Consider the available time/resources when selecting methods
• Formulate an explicit communication plan, taking advantage of
electronic media
• Devise an explicit path to impact decision-making
• Assess the quality of FTA
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Selecting methods and designing the process
Important design dimensions (Könnölä et al, 2008)
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•
•
•
Informative vs. instrumental outcomes
Consensual views vs. diverse future perspectives
Exclusive vs. extensive stakeholder involvement
Fixed vs. autonomous process
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Assessing the quality (Rader & Porter, 2008)
Issues
Information Pedigree
Quality of Tools
Information
communicated through
networking
Dimension
Fitness for purpose
Correspondence of
information & issues:
- Adequacy
- Relevance
Accuracy
Applicability
Access & Availability
Intelligibility
Reliability
Control
- Sources – Where from?
- Sources – Method of gen.
- Verification
- Consensus
Confidence
- Peer acceptance
- Legitimacy
Fitness for purpose
Adequacy/Applicability
Relevance
Adaptability/
Flexibility
Transparency
Model documentation
Sources of
information
Arbitrariness –
scientific setups
Legitimacy
Collegial consensus
Intelligibility
Compliance with target
audience
Accessibility
Transparency
Communication of
uncertainties
Recognition
Statement
Pedigree statement
Information communicated into the foresight
exercise
Considerations
Acknowledgement of
Input
Comprehensive
ness
Transformation/
Encoding
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Directions for further research
Theme 1 parallel sessions: Issues to be considered
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•
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Conceptual framing of the FTA process
Varying roles of methods & tools in FTA processes
Challenges of adaptive FTA and modular design
Accumulation of useful knowledge on methods and tools
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
References
Cagnin, C. and Keenan, M. (2008). Positioning Future-oriented Technology Analysis. In 'Future-Orieted
Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer,
Berlin Heidelberg.
Cuhls, K. and Johston, R. (2008). Corporate Foresight. In 'Future-Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic
Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg.
Eerola, A. and Väyrynen, E. (2002). Developing TF and TA Practices on the basis of European Experience. VTT
Research Notes 2174, Espoo (in Finnish; abstract in English).
Eerola, A. and Jørgensen, B. H. (2008). Foresight in Nordic Countries. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts
and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton.
Johnston, R. (2008). Historical Review of the Development of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis. In 'FutureOrieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al.
Springer, Berlin Heidelberg.
Könnölä, T., Ahlqvist, T., Eerola, A., Kivisaari, S. and Koivisto, R. (2008): Management of Foresight Portfolio Analysis of Modular Foresight Projects at Contract Research Organisation. Submitted to TASM
(forthcoming).
Miles, I. (2008). From the Futures to Foresight. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by
L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton.
Miles, I., Cassingena Harper, J., Georghiou, L., Keenan, M. and Popper, R. (2008). The Many Faces of
Foresight. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al . Edward
Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton.
Nonaka, I. (1994). A Dynamic Theory of Organizational Knowledge Creation. Organization Science, Vol. 5, No.1,
p. 14-37.
Popper, R. (2008). Foresight Methodology. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L.
Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton.
Rader M. & Porter, A. (2008). Fitting Future-oriented Analysis Methods to Study Types. In 'Future-Orieted
Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer,
Berlin Heidelberg.
Saritas, O. (2006). Systems Thinking for Foresight, Ph.D. Thesis, PREST, Manchester Business School,
University of Manchester.