Transcript Folie 1

AQUA-CSP
Work Packages:
1. Technologies (combination of CSP and desalting technologies)
2. Water and Solar Energy Resources
3. Demand Side Scenario
4. CSP Market Potential 2000-2050
5. Socio-Economic Impacts
6. Environmental Impacts
7. Literature
WP 4: CSP Markets
Middle East & North Africa
AQUA-CSP
Middle East & North Africa
Water Consumption [Bm³/y]
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
Natural Water Used
Groundwater Over-Use
2020
2025
2030
Wastewater reused
CSP Desalination
2035
2040
2045
2050
Fossil Fuel Desalination
Efficiency Gains
WP 4: CSP Markets
North Africa
AQUA-CSP
Water Consumption [Bm³/y]
North Africa
200
200
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
2000
2005
2010
Natural Water Used
Groundwater Over-Use
2015
2020
2025
Wastewater reused
CSP Desalination
2030
2035
2040
2045
0
2050
Fossil Fuel Desalination
Total Demand North Africa
WP 4: CSP Markets
Western Asia
AQUA-CSP
Water Consumption [Bm³/y]
Western Asia
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
2000
2005
2010
Natural Water Used
Groundwater Over-Use
2015
2020
2025
Wastewater reused
CSP Desalination
2030
2035
2040
2045
0
2050
Fossil Fuel Desalination
Total Demand Western Asia
WP 4: CSP Markets
Arabian Peninsula
AQUA-CSP
Water Consumption [Bm³/y]
Arabian Peninsula
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Natural Water Used
Fossil Fuel Desalination
CSP Desalination
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Wastewater reused
Groundwater Over-Use
Total Demand Arabian Peninsula
0
2050
WP 4: CSP Markets
By Country
AQUA-CSP
140
120
100
80
60
40
CSP Desalination Potential [billion m³/y]
CSP Desalination Potential [Bm³/y]
160
12
Bahrain
Yemen
UAE
10
Saudi Arabia
Qat ar
8
Kuwait
Oman
Iran
6
Iraq
Syria
4
Lebanon
Jordan
Israel
2
Palest ine
Egypt
Libya
0
20
2020
Tunisia
Year
Morocco
Algeria
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Bahrain
Yemen
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Kuwait
Oman
Iran
Iraq
Syria
Lebanon
Jordan
Israel
Palestine
Egypt
Libya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
WP 4: CSP Markets
By Country
AQUA-CSP
Coast Potential - Oman (20 m a. s. l.)
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
2000
2005
2010
2015
Natural Water Used
Groundwater Over-Use
2020
2025
2030
Wastewater reused
CSP Desalination
2035
2040
2045
Desalination Potential [Bm³/y]
Water Consumption [Bm³/y]
Oman
0.0
2050
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800
Fossil Fuel Desalination
Total Demand Oman
DNI [kWh/m²a]
Oman
Population MP
Exploitable Water
Sustainable Water
Irrigation Efficiency
Agricultural Use
Municipal Efficiency
Municipal Use
Industrial Use
Total Demand Oman
per capita Consumption
Wastewater reused
Non-sustainable Water
CSP Desalination
Fossil Fuel Desalination
Groundwater Over-Use
Mp
Bm³/y
Bm³/y
%
Bm³/y
%
Bm³/y
Bm³/y
Bm³/y
m³/cap/y
Bm³/y
Bm³/y
Bm³/y
Bm³/a
Bm³/y
2000
2.4
0.99
0.99
0.50
1.2
0.65
0.1
0.0
1.4
567
0.009
0.4
0.00
0.1
0.3
2010
2.9
0.99
1.02
0.52
1.4
0.68
0.13
0.04
1.6
551
0.0
0.6
0.00
0.2
0.4
2020
3.5
0.99
1.04
0.54
1.7
0.70
0.17
0.05
1.9
538
0.1
0.8
0.08
0.4
0.4
2030
4.1
0.99
1.08
0.56
1.9
0.73
0.22
0.07
2.2
527
0.1
0.4
0.63
0.4
0.0
2040
4.6
0.99
1.14
0.58
2.0
0.76
0.28
0.08
2.4
519
0.1
0.3
0.98
0.3
0.0
2050
5.0
0.99
1.21
0.60
2.1
0.78
0.33
0.10
2.6
512
0.2
0.0
1.32
0.0
0.0
Kuwait
Population MP
Exploitable Water
Sustainable Water
Mp
Bm³/y
Bm³/y
2000
2.2
0.02
0.07
2010
3
0.02
0.20
2020
3.7
0.02
0.40
2030
4.3
0.02
0.64
2040
4.8
0.02
0.91
2050
5.3
0.02
1.22
>
2800
WP 4: CSP Markets
Total
AQUA-CSP
440
10
0
1
90
5
0
1
1,650
50
0
1
20,000
150
90
2
10,000
43
40
2
170,000
165
90
3
Technical CSP Electricity Potential
Local CSP Electricity Market 2050
Export CSP Electricity Market 2050
CSP Desalination Market 2050
45
4
0
1
140,000
22
90
26
617,000 TWh/y
1700 TWh/y
700 TWh/y
500 TWh/y
400
50
0
1
75,000
395
90
225
10,000
120
6,500 60
50 50
30,000
190
30
2
60
3
(www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp)
(www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp)
(www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp)
(www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp)
125,000
135
90
110
5,000
150
0
40
3,000
20
30
23
20,000
22
30
5
WP 4: CSP Markets
Total
AQUA-CSP
Installed Capacity [GW]
600
500
400
Desalination
Export Electricity
Local Electricity
300
200
100
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
AQUA-CSP
WP 4: CSP Markets
Conclusions
 Sustainable supply must be initiated immediately to avoid groundwater collapse
 Increase efficiency of water production, distribution, end-use and management
 Increase re-use of waste water
 Start introduction and dissemination of CSP-desalination plants
 Over-use of groundwater will increase still from 45 Bm³/y to 70 Bm³/y in 2020
 Conventional desalination will grow by a factor of 5
 All measures should be taken to avoid groundwater collapse, but CSP is the
key to sustainability