Transcript Developing and Operationalizing Theories of Change

Developing Programs: What
does this entail?
Michael Drinkwater, PIKL
CARE Ethiopia Senior Staff
Meeting
October 2008
Remember why we need to
change…
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Underlying causes of poverty not being
addressed
Short term projects do not address poverty
New development approaches
Northern policies
Social movements
Critique of International NGOs
Importance of impact assessment
The Evidence: We must change
SII on Women’s Empowerment:
Our portfolio
15%
60%
25%
positioned for sustained societal impact
positioned for individual/small impact
showing little or no impact
WHY?:
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Failure to target UCPs - what really drives poverty in context
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No theory of how UCPs actually change – and our contribution
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Too “CARE-centric”- UCPs require synergies and alliances
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One-off projects fail to build on prior gains and relationships
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Organizational amnesia: project closes, staff go, learning ends
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Organizational measures of success – size and stability
Definition of a Program
A program is a coherent set of initiatives by
CARE and our allies that involves a long term
commitment to specific marginalized and
vulnerable groups to achieve lasting impact at
broad scale on underlying causes of poverty and
social injustice.
This goes beyond the scope of projects to achieve
positive changes in human conditions, in social
positions and in the enabling environment.
8 Characteristics of a Program
1. A clearly defined goal for impact on the lives of a specific group, realized at broad scale.
2. A thorough analysis of underlying causes of poverty, gender inequality, and social
injustice at multiple levels with multiple stakeholders.
3. An explicit theory of change that is rigorously tested and adapted to reflect ongoing
learning.
4. A coherent set of initiatives that enable CARE and our partners to contribute
significantly to the transformation articulated in the theory of change.
5. Ability to promote organizational and social learning, to generate knowledge and
evidence of impact.
6. Contribution to broad movements for social change through our work with and
strengthening of partners, networks and alliances.
7. A strategy to leverage and influence the use and allocation of financial and other
resources within society for maximizing change at a broader scale.
8. Accountability systems to internal and external stakeholders that are transparent.
A Programmatic Approach:
The Mind Shift
It is difficult to shift our mindsets about our
work, about what it should be about, and about
the scope and scale we need to reach.
Projects – and even related sequences of
projects – are an answer to the question,
“What can CARE do?” (even if there are
contractual partnerships within the project).
Programs – when crafted correctly – respond
to a different question: “What is the change in
society (impact) that we wish to catalyze?”
A Programmatic Approach:
The Mind Shift - 2
A program is more about CARE
articulating a picture and vision of
social change – one of course in line
with government and MDG
strategies – that moves others to join
forces with us (and us with them) to
achieve something far beyond our
sole ability to accomplish.
Elements of a Pathway to Becoming a
Programmatic Organization
Components of Program Design
(1) IMPACT GROUP
+ DESCRIPTION
(3) SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS
(Context
, UCP,gender
, power analysis
)
(2) LONG
-TERM IMPACT GOAL
(4) THEORY OF CHANGE
(5) PROGRAM STRATEGY
CAUSAL PATH
Year15
With and
By Whom
E.g.
Coherent set of initiatives
Allies
,
with clearly articulated
strategic
strategies for achieving the
partners
,
outcomes
and other
stake
holders
OUTCOME
Hypothesis
“if-Then”
OUTCOME
Hypothesis
“if-Then”
OUTCOME
Year1
ASSUMPTIONS
+
RISKS
(6) LEARNING AND
IMPACT
MEASUREMENT
SYSTEM
How are new programs
different?
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Need to ensure that as COs reorganize their
project portfolios into programs, that this is
not simply a relabeling exercise (sectors
now become programs)
Importance of starting with clear
identification of impact populations
Distinction between impact population,
target group and stakeholders
Impact, Target, Sub Groups and
Stakeholders
Health Bureau
Impact Group
Schools
community
Resource poor youth in urban and
periurban areas vulnerable to HIV &
AIDS
BOLSA
ACSI
Bureau of Youth
& Sports
Chat
‘Bet’/houses
Ønp?
Ruralurban
migrant
CSWs
Male and
female
youth
living with
HIV/AIDS
Urban youth
parents
Urban
Unemploy
ed youth
Brokers
Unemploy
ed youth
(addicted)
Community at
transit Woreda?
Youth
urban
daily
laborers
Police
MSE?
Education
Office
Micro
enterprises
Key:
Blue – (Sub) Impact groups
Yellow – Stakeholders
Purple – Target groups
Youth
Association
CBOS
(Target +
Stakeholders)
Microfinance
institutions
MunicipalityPA
Women
Association
Micro
Finance Inst.
Hotel owners &
house renters
Likeminded
LNGOS
Youth
associations,
Women
associations,
Kebele
Administration
Private sector
(Industrialists)
Defining Impact Populations
The impact group for a program is the
specific population group whose lives
should show a measurable, enduring
improvement through the effects of the
program
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different from the broader target group with
whom we work
 needs to be defined specifically, eg not just
‘women’ or ‘girls’
Situational Analysis
Includes any or all of:
 Context analysis
 UCP analysis (can be related to MDGs)
 Gender analysis
 Power analysis
All these forms of analysis should occur at
multiple levels, and with stakeholder
involvement (in ways that are feasible)
Long Term Impact Goal
This is a 10-15 year ambition, and
specifies the kind of enduring impact we
would like to see being achieved in the
lives of the impact population group, at
broad scale
Why Theories of Change?
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Social change is a messy, complex
affair, rather than a predictable, linear
process
But while social change is complex
and incoherent, it is not unintelligible
We have to be adaptive, iterative and
non-linear – we have to seize
opportunities and learn what works
and what doesn’t work.
Theory of Change: Working
Definition
A set of hypotheses and critical
assumptions that make up a causal
pathway of change which is the basis of
the program design.
 Hypotheses are ‘if-then’ statements
between different levels of the change
pathway
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Theory of Change - 2
THEORY OF CHANGE
CAUSAL PATH
Year 15
OUTCOME
Hypothesis
“if-then”
OUTCOME
Hypothesis
“if-then”
OUTCOME
Year 1
CARE Malawi Program Shift: Impact
Groups
ASSUMP-TIONS +
RISKS
Change Pathways, and their
Assumptions
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A path of change is like a road map – but one
where we have an idea of the destination, but will
have to experiment to find an effective route of
getting there
The change pathway(s) laid out for achieving our
long-term impact goal has to be hypothetical
because it is based on assumptions
It gives us a hypothetical answer to the question:
what is the change we are working for and what
needs (beliefs, activities, approaches) to happen for
the change to come about?
It serves as a planning and reflection tool and
should be regularly reviewed and adjusted (testing
the assumptions, measuring breakthroughs and reexamining the pace of change)
Bangladesh TOC:
Women’s Empowerment - 1
Narrative Form
The most socially economically, politically
marginalized women will be empowered by
women’s greater exercise of choice in
decision affecting their lives at all levels
and reduced violence against women and
girls. This, accompanied by a strong social
movement built on women’s solidarity
and participation of men, will have a
multiplier effect in realizing the impact vision
Domains of Change
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Domain of change: can refer to (a) a
group of people, (b) a relationship between
two groups of people, or (c) a system in
which behavioral and structural change are
essential to achieving an impact goal /
overcoming the underlying causes of
poverty and social injustice of the impact
group.
The program is expected to influence
behaviors and systems of the domain of
change.
Domains of Change:
Examples
Example from Bangladesh Marginalised Women Impact Statement:
Path of change states that women will be empowered by:
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Exercise of greater choice in decisions affecting their lives
Reduced violence against women
(including establishing and strengthening systems to deal with cases of VAW)
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Strong social movements built on women's solidarity and participation
of men
But also involves
Addressing marginalization at different lifecycle stages
Transforming institutions to address power imbalances between men
and women
2
5
Stakeholders
6
Indicators
related to
breakthroughs,
domains, and
long-term goal
Desired Long-term Goal
(related to population impact group)
4
Breakthrough
7
Assumptions
and Risks
Breakthrough
3
1
Domain of change
Domain of Change
Domain of Change
Current Situation, including underlying causes/barriers to change
Pathways of
change
Bangladesh TOC:
Women’s Empowerment - 2
CARE Bangladesh Impact Statement on the most Socially,
Economically and Politically Marginalized Women
Women will be empowered by:
Exercise of
greater
choice in
decisions
affecting
their lives
+
Reduced
violence
against
women
X
Strong
Social
movements
built on
women's
solidarity and
participation of
men
Bangladesh TOC:
Women’s Empowerment - 3
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The “+” sign signifies that the two domains are not necessarily
inter-dependent but mutually supportive. The intent is to see a
positive trendline in both, with one reinforcing the other.
The strong social movements is a multiplier on the
achievements of the two domains of change. Social
movements will sustain and carry forward those achievements
and will scale up the impact at national level. It is not enough
for CARE Bangladesh to be satisfied with empowering a few
women; it must think about the next generation.
The multiplier effect is also present in the pressure for
structural change upon the institutions and norms that survive
the cycles of repressive governments with the potential to help
temper an unstable political environment.
Finally, our SII research has shown us that solidarity building
is crucial for women’s empowerment.
Theories of Change: Summary
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A Theory of Change consists of a number of
domains of change linked together in an
hypothesis to achieve the impact goal
It has also a set of change pathways, with
identified breakthrough areas
Together, the domains of change + the
pathways provide a plausible set of
hypotheses and assumptions to address the
major underlying causes/ barriers
It need not be complex, but it must be
logical and coherent
Lasting change…
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If we assume a 15 year impact goal has to
do with transformation in the lives of the
people who compose the impact group …
Then it is important that the pathway of
change must be one that brings about
‘social change’ which is deep and lasting.
That is the result of actually addressing
underlying causes of poverty and social
injustice.
Breakthroughs…
Breakthrough: a change that represents a
leap forward or an advance on the pathway
of change that is not easily reversed.
 In its greatest magnitude, it is a structural or
systemic change. But on a smaller scale, it
can manifest as a precedent or something
that happens for the first time.
 We will seek breakthroughs in the change
domains relevant to the Theory of Change
Learning and Impact
Measurement System
This system needs to allow us to do two
things:
 Test – and adapt – our theory of
change
 Measure progress towards achieving
impact
Learning and Impact
Measurement System - 2
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Require a core set of outcome and impact
indicators, aligned with global set (MDIs +)
A set of qualitative and quantitative methods
– but as light and clearly focused as
possible, and integrated into work roles
An annual reflection and learning process
Changing the Knowledge
Hierarchy
Figure 5: Comparison of CARE’s Current
Knowledge Hierarchy with a Future Hierarchy
Wisdom
Intelligence
Wisdom
Intelligence
Knowledge
Knowledge
Information
Data
A Project
Approach
Information
Data
A Program
Approach
In a future scenario under a
program approach, CARE would
produce far less data and
information but derive more
knowledge, intelligence and
wisdom from this reduction, as
compared with the project
approach. Proportionally, the
production of knowledge will
exceed that of data and
information.
Is this feasible?
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We do not do this alone
We must mirror the change we wish to see
This is the change the specific impact
populations desire… there is always energy
that can be tapped and created, support
that can be found; it is really up to our
desire and imagination
Are we serious? What is our level and
ambition and commitment? What do we
want CARE Bangladesh to become?