Transcript Title

MASDAR
International
Consultants
2001: AFDB/MOFA Agro Industry Study 2001
2003: Technoserve Ghana
Cashew Processing
Aquaculture
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So Cashew: Where does it all start?
1
How is the value added …..
Basic processing
1.Steaming
2.Air drying
3.Shelling
Post-processing
4. Oven
drying
5. Peeling
6. Sorting
7.
Packaging
25lbs
25
50 lbs
•Raw nuts
are
steamed
under
high
pressure
•Dried, to
•Nuts are
make shell
cracked
brittle and
to free
easy to crack the
kernel
•Kernels
are
ovendried
•Kernels
are
peeled
•Sorted
and
graded
•Kernels
are CO2flushed
and
vacuumpacked
Outturn ~ 20%
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2
What does a cashew processing operation look like?
3
Global production for cashews has grown at an average rate of
4.4%* over the past 40 years
World cashew raw nut production, 1961-2001
Metric tons, millions
2
CAGR*
1961-2001
4.4%
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1961
1971
1981
*Compound annual growth rate
Source: FAO (Food & Agricultural Organization of the UN)
1991
2001
4
Vietnam has now become a major player, it shows what can be done!
%
%
Other
East Africa
Global annual
production is West Africa
of the order of
1.5m MT.
4
12
20
Vietnam
13
Brazil
16
India
34
Raw Nut
Source:
Other
4
Vietnam
17
Brazil
18
India
61
Global annual
production of
kernel is of the
order of 300k
MT.
Pre-processed bulk
Samsons Trading Company; The Market for Cashew Nuts and its Relevance to African
Production, 1999.
5
The EU and the US consume the lions share!
% Global Cashew Kernel Consumption
Brazil 2.6
Oceania 2.6
Japan 2.6
West Asia 2.6
China
India
10.5
Rest 2.6
34.3
US /
Canada
21.1
21.1
Europe
Source:
Samsons Trading Company; MAN Production – Edible nut market report
6
Long-term real prices have been stable with a typical slight decline
World cashew raw nut price, 1971-2003*
USD per metric ton, indexed to 1990 CPI
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
Long-term
price trend**
600
400
200
0
1971
1981
1991
*2003 indicative price based on initial harvest price of $620-650/Mt from Guinea Bissau
**Excluding 1980-81
Source: Cashew Board of Tanzania (“CBT”), FAO, Industry sources
2001
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Historic prices, are somewhat volatile but solid over time
World Market Cashew Kernel Prices
(Grade W320)
3.5
US$/lb
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
83 84 85 86 86 87 88 89 89 90 91 92 92 93 94 95 95 96 97 98 98 99 00 01 02
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20
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Cashew production in Ghana is set to further expand over the next few
years with the assistance of the AfBD funded Cashew Development
Project
Ghana Raw Cashew Nut Production
6000
5000
MT
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
2000
2001
2002
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Virtually all cashew production in Ghana is exported out of Ghana in
raw nut form!
Price/MT
MT/Year
4500
Value $m
480
1.8
3500
0.175
Raw cashew
nuts
1.0594214
50
Value added
in Ghana
Source: TNS Cashew Team
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We are beginning to see an evolution in product flows
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To:
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In 5 years time 50% of the cashew nuts could be processed in Ghana
7000
6000
harvested
5000
Metric
Tons
4000
3000
2000
processed
1000
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
13
Minimum efficient scale business unit size needs to be 1000 tons
of raw nuts processed per year producing 200 tons kernel
3500
3000
2500
Raw Nuts
2000
Third
processed
1500
First plant
Second
1000
500
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Ramp up: 500,750,1000 mt/yr
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Based on the assumptions total value of cashew exports can
increase from $2m to $3.3m in 5 years and create at least 750 real jobs!
Price/MT
MT/Year
3000
Value $m
480
1.2
3500
2.1
Raw cashew
nuts
1.0594214
3000 = 600 kernel
Value added
in Ghana
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Cashew processing is labour, not capital intensive.
Buildings
Equipment
Vehicle & Other
Total capital
investment
30
Cashew Processing Plant
Estimated Investment
$,000
50
40
120
Raw nuts
Salaries
150
50
Other
50
Total Working
Capital
250
Total investment
370
Processing 500 metric tons in first year, 10 tons nuts per week!
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But cost structure is critical
P&L per Kg Raw Nuts
Revenue/Kg Raw Nuts
0.79
Nut cost
0.37
0.12
Labour
Processing/Overheads
Packing/Distribution
Profit BIT/Kg
500mt/annum factory, $/kg
0.06
0.06
0.17
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So what are the building blocks critical to success?
Entrepreneur
Management
Scale
Infrastructure
Economies
Good
Quality
Productivity
Training
Raw Nuts
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Who can help develop my business idea?
MOFA Cashew Development Project (launched April 2003)l
•Increase cashew production and production in Ghana
•$13m provided by African Development Bank/GOG
•$4.8m credit facilities available to private sector
•6 year implementation period, 5 regions.
•Contact CDP on
021 662472
Technoserve
Experience of cashew in Mozambique, Tanzania and Ghana
Knowledge and Information of International Cashew Industry
Market Linkages
Business Development Skills
Contact us on
021 763675
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• There is a future in farming fish!
November 2003
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Large scale commercial aquaculture is
less than 30 years old. By 2030 almost all
fish consumed will be farmed!
CAGR* since 1990
Wild
Supply
Meat Production
2003
Wild Supply 1950
Fish Farming
0%
* Compound Average Growth Rate
21
5%
10%
15%
Fish farming is now a major source of fish
M MT
Global Fish Consumption 2000
80%
produced in
low intensity
systems for
local
consumption
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
wild fish
farmed
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the local pond
• Current catch (350 MT) is at max. sustainable level
• Fish imports in 2000 were estimated at $150m
• Fish represents 70% of animal protein consumed
• Fish is the major source of protein in most dishes
• Demand is growing with population increase
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the EU fish supper
• Technoserve Market Study 2003 looked at the
opportunity to export tilapia from Ghana to EU
– EU fish market huge and growing
– Existing tilapia suppliers making slow inroads
– Need to educate customers to potential
– New suppliers should focus on fresh sector
– Cost of product delivered critical (€6/Kg)
– Regulations complex
– Duty free access
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what about the American diner?
Frozen Whole:
China
Taiwan
Indonesia
$2.60/Kg
Fresh Whole
Ecuador
Costa Rica
Honduras
Future:
Fresh Fillets
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prices in real terms for fresh fish have
increased three fold in the last 50 years
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on the home front?
• Urban market for tilapia worth $20m
• Target customers: hotels, restaurants, supermarkets,
middle class homes
Distribution outlet
Price (US$/kg)
Average wholesale price of imported frozen tilapia
2.00
Average lake-side (farm gate) price of fresh tilapia
2.20
Average retail price frozen tilapia
2.80
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the catch
• Ponds: rejuvenation, improvements, new ponds
• Inland water bodies, particularly Volta Lake
• New Technology: Cages
– Wide span of water surface
– Gentle breeze and a gentle current
– Water quality (pH, temp, O2, Ca)
– Depth of water (6-8m)
• Volta Lake has some ideal sites.
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model cage farm
• 1000 tons Tilapia annually
• 180 days from hatching to harvesting
• Production cycle to produce 20 tons a week
• Consume 2,500 tons extruded feed
• Employ 40 full time staff
• Analysis suggested this is an attractive investment
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issues
• Site location
• Need stock with high genetic potential
• High quality feed
• Technical/management expertise
• Environmental management plan
• Security
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conclusion
• Strong local market for tilapia
• Suitable natural resources
• Technology proven
• Financially viable
• Management/Knowledge Critical
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Give a man a fish and he
will eat for a day
Teach a man to fish and he
will eat for life
Help that man to build a fish
farm then he can feed a
nation!
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Contact Details
• Presentations: www.masdar.com
• Internet: www.technoserve.org
• Email : [email protected]
• Tel Accra
021 763675
• Tel Kumasi 051 60264
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