Transcript 20050502_csiro_powerpoint_template.pot

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
Implications for Agriculture in the Asia-Pacific Region
Andrew Ash
Interim Director
CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship
www.csiro.au
Climate change is occurring and is due to
human activities *
* From: IPCC, 2007: Summary for Poicymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor
and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
We are currently tracking at the very high end of
emission scenarios and temperature projections
Rahmstorf et al.
Climate change is projected to continue
15-model average changes in temperature by 2030,
relative to 1990
Suppiah et al (in prep)
Low CO2 emission scenario
High CO2 emission scenario
Temperature change (°C)
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes
Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions
Summary of Projected Climate Changes
• Temperature to increase 3oC by 2050 and 5oC by 2070 over land areas
• Lower increases in temperature in maritime environments
• Precipitation increases in high latitudes (temperate) but a drying in midlatitudes (sub-tropics) over Asia
• Equatorial tropical zone – uncertain but little mean change expected
• No increase in cyclone frequency but intensity could increase by 10-20%
• Accelerated melting of glaciers – 65% of China’s glaciers will not exist by
2050 with current and projected warming trends
• Sea level rise modest in IPCC projections (c. 50cm) but estimates don’t
include significant ice melt
Vulnerability to extreme events
Table 2.3. Reported Natural Disasters in the Pacific Islands (19502004)
Event
Number
Fatalities
Population
Affected
Losses
(millions 2004
US$)
Windstorms
157
1,380
2,496,808
5,903.90
Droughts
10
0
629,580
137.00
Floods
8
40
246,644
94.80
Earthquakes
17
53
22,254
330.60
Others
15
274
21,520+
60.00
Vulnerability to sea level rise
Sectoral vulnerability
Vulnerability of Asian Sectors Related to Agriculture to Climate
Change
Regions
Food and Fibre
Water
Resources
Coastal
Ecosystems
Highly vulnerable
Highly
vulnerable
Moderately
vulnerable
Tibetan Plateau
Slightly or not
vulnerable
Moderately
vulnerable
Not applicable
Temperate Asia
Highly vulnerable
Highly
vulnerable
Highly vulnerable
Arid and semi-arid Asia
Central Asia
Tropical Asia and Small Island States
South Asia
Highly vulnerable
Highly
vulnerable
Highly vulnerable
Southeast Asia
Highly vulnerable
Highly
vulnerable
Highly vulnerable
Impacts on agriculture
Four main climate related drivers on agriculture:
• Elevated carbon dioxide
• Rainfall and associated water resource availability
• Temperature – both direct and indirect through evaporation
• Extreme weather events (wind, flood damage)
These interact to affect agricultural productivity, quality, pests
and diseases.
Impacts on agriculture and food security
• Benefits of elevated CO2 lost as temperatures increase
• Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes
for local warmings of 1-3o C, then decrease for greater warming
• Crop productivity is projected to decrease for local warmings of 1-2o C at
lower latitudes, e.g. tropics, which would increase risk of hunger. Decreases
in revenue up to 25%
• Monsoon more variable and increased damage from cyclones
• Agricultural irrigation demand in sub-tropical semi-arid zones (lower
precipitation, higher evaporation) likely to be 10% per degree of warming
• Northward shift of agricultural zones in Asia (single, double, tri-planting)
• Commercial timber productivity is projected to rise modestly
• Likely impacts on fisheries but outcomes are uncertain
Adapting to Climate Change
Adaptation involves both the actions of adjusting practices, processes and capital
in response to the actuality or threat of climate change as well as changes in the
decision environment such as social and institutional structures.
Adaptation helps to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of
opportunities, or to cope with the consequences of climate change.
Mitigation of climate change refers to those response strategies that reduce the
sources of greenhouse gases or enhance their sinks, to subsequently reduce the
probability of reaching a given level of climate change
Adapting to climate change
Stationary Climate &
Coping Range
Changing Climate
Vulnerable
Coping
Range
Vulnerable
Stationary Climate &
Coping Range
Changing Climate
Vulnerable
Adaptation
Coping
Range
Planning Horizon
Vulnerable
Adaptation in agriculture
Tropical Asia
• Adjust cropping calendar and crop rotation to deal with climatic variability
and extremes
• Develop and promote use of high-yielding varieties and sustainable
technological applications
Semi-arid and arid Asia
• Change in agriculture system (introduction of humidity-preserving
technologies, application of advanced agro-technical measures, and the
introduction of new frost resistant, low water use and drought-resistant
high-yielding varieties)
• Reconstruction of existing irrigation system (introduction of sprinkling and
drip irrigation)
Conclusion – Winners and Losers
 Between agricultural industries
 Between regions
 Impacts are on economic, environmental and social
components of the system
 Degree of impact will depend on adaptation