Transcript Information and Communication Technologies for Innovation

Information and
Communication
Technologies for Innovation
J.P.CONTZEN
IST LISBOA
February 4, 2005
« With the coming of the information society, we
have for the first time an economy based on a key
resource that is not only renewable but selfgenerating »
John Naisbitt
Megatrends
Warner Books, N.Y., 1982
The role of ICTs in Innovation


A strong engine for innovation in their own field.
With biotechnologies, they represent one of the
most creative fields of S&T development and of its
rapid transformation in products, processes and
services.
A strong engine for innovation in other fields. They
have revolutionized the conduct of Science, the
diffusion of knowledge; they have impacted on all
areas of human activity, they have facilitated
organizational and institutional innovation.
Innovation within ICTs
Innovations in the two essential areas of
hardware and software should progress in
parallel.
 Within hardware,several aspects:

 Processors
 Memories
 Input/Output
interfaces
 Communication links
 Energy supplies
 Computer and system architecture
Processors (1)

Processors:
 The
challenge is getting greater transistor density,
and lower cost. Moore’s law of doubling performance
every 18 months is still valid but for how long?
Physical limits of packing circuitry are not far away:
90 nm constitute currently the minimum feature size.
 Ultra-small electronics could no longer be siliconbased. HP Quantum Science Research Group in Palo
Alto works on molecular electronics (IHT, February 1,
2005, p.13)
Processors (2)

Processors (cont.):
 In
the longer term, optical, quantum and DNA
processors could be the solution.
 “Cooler”, less energy hungry, processors constitute
an emerging trend for innovation: “preferring an
energy-efficient processor that gives an extra hour of
battery life to one that can run your PowerPoint
animation faster” (MIT Technology Review, February
2005) The Pentium M is the answer of Intel to this
issue.
Processors (3)

Processors (cont.):
 “Platformization”
constitutes the other emerging
trend, i.e. the convergence of computing and
communications. Microprocessors for raw
computing power are no longer the solution.The Intel
Centrino is an example of the evolution: the
combination of a Pentium M, a Wi-Fi radio and a new
low-power chipset (memory and graphics chips
supporting the CPU). In March 2003, Centrino had
already 11% of the market of wireless networks.
Memories, Input/Output Devices


Memories: greater density, reduced access time,
sensitivity to “soft errors” induced by cosmic rays
and alpha particles (non negligible rate of errors,
from 4 to 10 failures per 10000 chip-hours)
Input/output devices: two challenges:
electronic/optical interfaces and voice actuation
Communication (1)


Communication links: Mobile and Wireless systems
beyond 3G, optimally connected anywhere,
anytime.
Broadband is the main motto but not at the
expense of geographical coverage. Security is
another preoccupation, e.g for VoIP configurations
(FT, February 3, 2005).
Communication (2) and Energy

Communication links (cont.):
the battle for broadband access: is it essential?
 100
pages file: 34 Mb/s = 0.5 s; 64 kb/s = 30s
 Color photo high quality: 34 Mb/s = 1.5 s; 64 kb/s =
15min.
 5 min. full screen video: 34 Mb/s = 25 min.; 64 kb/s =
9 days

The tools available for broadband: satellite,
coaxial cable, optical fibers, local radio, copper
wire with ADSL
Energy supplies: the weak point of any portable
system, miniature fuel cells as a possible solution?
Computer Architecture (1)

Computer architecture: several issues trigger
innovation in this area:

replacement of sophisticated processors by more
simple ones e.g. “an Intel 64-bit Itanium processor
replaced by an array of several hundreds of 4- or 8bit processors of the Intel 8086” (Ian Pearson, UK
futurologist, FT, January 26, 2005). Most applications
do not require sophisticated processors
 The end of the desktop due to the evolution of
notebooks and mobile platforms?
Computer Architecture (2)

Computer architecture (cont):
 Low
cost computers, using paper and cardboard, MIT
Nishi 10$ objective, J.Willard 1-2$ objective
(www.papercomputer.com)
 Profitability of PC manufacturing in question with
IBM project sale of its PC business to Lenovo in
China (US Congress objections for security reasons)
 The return of the mainframe at the expense of
servers? The server market was down in recent
years while mainframe maintained its position.
Computer Architecture (3)

Computer architecture (cont):
 Would
Grid computing reverse this trend?
Harnessing the processing power of thousands of
distributed computers would be the solution?
Interfaces constitute the main issue, interconnecting
clusters of servers and transport large amounts of
data at high speeds over Wide Area Networks (WAN).
Experiments between CERN Geneva and Carleton
University, Ottawa via Amsterdam and Chicago,
achieved line speeds of more than 9 Gigabytes per
second and moved 365 Terabytes of data over 91
hours of operation without loosing a single data
package. Grid computing is a reality for e-Science,
will it move in other areas?
Computer Architecture (4)

Computer architecture (cont):
 The
race of supercomputing power: the most
powerful supercomputer is still in Japan, the Earth
Simulator with an operating speed of 35.86 Teraflops
(peak 40.96 Teraflops). The second one is in Spain,
Mare Nostrum, in the 30Teraflops range. The 4 next
ones are in the US.
Computer Architecture (4)

Computer architecture (cont):
 One
objective of grid technology and
supercomputing: reducing computing time
The example of a 0.1 degree grid for ocean dynamics
simulation over long periods of time: for a century of
evolution, it requires 28 days computing on the Earth
Simulator. With most of the current CPUs devoted to
scientific computing, it would require 850 days. The
objective for the future is a Peta scale grid : One
Petaflops for operations and 10 Petabytes of storage.
Computer Architecture (5)

Computer architecture (cont):
 Another
objective of grid technology: large scale
storage of data:
The example of the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC)
computing grid: one single LHC detector (ATLAS) will
produce, after 2007, 2 Petabytes per second of raw
data; filtering leaves 320 Megabytes per second of data,
requiring a yearly storage of 10 Petabytes.
The data from the LHC will be stored on 10 000
commodity servers with 1 Terabyte of storage.
On-demand access to LHC data will be provided worldwide.
Computer Architecture (6)

Computer architecture (cont):
 Grid
computing and supercomputers raise the acute
question for moderate size computing centers about
how much capacity should be kept internally. The
extreme would be none, considering computing as a
utility in the same way as water, gas and electricity
Systems Architecture (1)

Systems architecture:
The trend is towards the diversification of functions,
information and communication together:
 The
success of camera cell phones exceeding in
sales already in 2003 the digital still cameras.
 The success of Voice on Internet Protocol: NORTEL
Canada currently saves 22 M$ on a 4.7 M$
investment by asking employees to make phone calls
on soft phones rather than cell phones.
 Current Microsoft based smart phones synchronize
e-mail diary and contacts like a PDA. The competition
will be essentially on prices (P800 smart phone as
expensive as fully equipped PDA)
Systems Architecture (2)

Systems architecture (cont.):
 The
use of cell phones as credit cards
 The next step: the multipurpose watch? Time, TV,
pager, computer, camera, music player, health
monitor. Interest of major players Timex, Samsung,
Swatch (IHT, January 24, 2000)
Source: STERN 10/2004
Software (1)


Too much complexity? “I wanted a pound of butter
and Bill Gates sold me a grocery store” (Senior US
Telecom executive)
What future for software? Two scenarios (CIO
magazine, December 15, 2003):
A
land where giants rule: few monopolistic vendors,
expensive, complex, not very innovative
 Open source slays Goliath: open-source software
pushed by European and Asian governments. US
CIOs climb aboard. You don’t pay for the software
but for the services. Innovation will flower.
Software (2)
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Other issues:
The increased attention devoted to I/O interfaces
such as speech
The expansion of virtual reality
The improvement of artificial intelligence, robotics,
expert systems, pattern recognition. Artificial
Intelligence with high level cognitive capabilities is a
significant subject: interpreting data from real world
events, developing reasoning, planning and
communication faculties.
Software (3)


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Other issues (cont.):
“Data mining”: “We are drowning in information but
starved from knowledge” (John Naisbitt, op.cit.).
Improvements in data handling, storage and
retrieval are essential.
The development of tools for the digitalization of
people’s own memorabilia: « Google yourself »,
visual diary of people.
The exchange of information using people’s own
languages.
Software (4)

The language issue:
In terms of language on-line use, the main issue is
not the predominance of English but rather the
balance to achieve between a strong demand for
work in native languages and a weaker offer in
such languages, as illustrated by the following data.
Software (5)

The language issue (cont.):
The on-line community using English represents
36.2% of the total Internet population while this
language zone represents 33.4% of the world
economy, a fairly proportionate relation. NonEnglish European languages are used by 35.5% of
internauts while accounting for 30.3% of the
economy. Asian languages total 28.3% of on-line
use for 36.3% in economical terms.
Software (6)

The language issue (cont.):
The distribution of languages other than English
used mainly by Internauts is as follows :
Chinese 10.8% ; Japanese 9.7%;
Spanish
7.4% ; German
6.6%
Korean
4.5% ; Italian
3.8%
French
3.5% ; Portuguese 3.0%
Russian
2.9% ; Dutch
2.0%
Software (7)

The language issue (cont.):
In contrast, in terms of web pages existing in a
specific language, about 70% are in English while
non-English European languages are limited to
about 18% and Asian languages to 12%.
The offer is much more restricted, there lies the
main issue.
(source: http://glreach.com)
Innovation in ICTs applications (1)


Many applications have experienced a strong
development, notably:
E-health: ICT-based systems processing and
integrating all possible relevant biomedical
information from different levels and from different
places, followed by interpretation, leading to health
prevention, diagnosis and treatment
E-government: efforts for interfacing with public but
inside the government itself? E-voting is not
favored by citizens.
Innovation in ICTs applications (2)

E-commerce: the total E-Commerce in 2003
amounted to about 4 Trillions $, with a predicted
growth to 6.8 Trillions $ in 2004. 59% are in the US,
21% in Western Europe and 18% in the Asia Pacific
region. 2% are left for the rest of the world.
(source: Forrester Research, Inc; http://glreach.com)
Innovation in ICTs applications (3)

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
E-business: a growing area, some European
countries (Ireland, Sweden, U.K.) lead over the US,
more could be done in terms of on-line billing, online supply
E-safety: great potential in transportation systems
E-risk: self-organizing, self-healing, ad-hoc in situ
monitoring and alert systems, crisis management.
Innovation in ICTs applications (4)
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Other important areas:
E- learning: the virtual school, college, university.
Important for developing countries and lifelong
learning
E-elderly care: socially important with the aging of
the population. Quality of life is the issue.
E- agriculture: an area not fully exploited, could
assist leapfrogging in developing countries
Innovation in ICTs applications (5)

Other important areas (cont.):
E- inclusion: generalized accessibility in consumer
goods and services to ensure equal access,
independent living and participation in all aspects of
the Information Society. Development of assisting
systems, innovative solutions for persons with
cognitive disabilities.
Social consequences of ICTs applications
(1)



Internet replaces social interaction, more than TV
(studies by Stanford, CMU, ISCTE, Univ. Lisboa)
ICTs favor delocalization of industrial activities, not
only call centers and software factories but also
industrial production: digital products are easier to
produce than analog ones: Nokia delocalizing its
production, failure of Sony to do so (FT, January
27, 2005). IT should be low-tech??
The proliferation of blogs raises the issue of free
speech (FT, January 26, 2005)
Social consequences of ICTs applications
(2)



Internet replaces social interaction, more than TV
(studies by Stanford, CMU, ISCTE, Univ. Lisboa)
ICTs favor delocalization of industrial activities, not
only call centers but also industrial production:
digital products are easier to produce than analog
ones: Nokia delocalizing its production, failure of
Sony to do so (FT, January 27, 2005)
The proliferation of blogs raises the issue of free
speech (FT, January 26, 2005)
Social consequences of ICTs applications
(3)

The most important impact of ICTs: the consumer
becomes a producer, participating in the production
of goods and services. The creative contribution of
the consumer could mean the end of industrial
production and mass consumption. Consumers
become financial analysts, literature critics,
photographic artists, printers. Star Academy is a
sign of the shaping of musical stars by the public.
(La Libre Belgique, January 15-16, 2005)
Social consequences of ICTs applications
(4)

“In the future, editors won’t tell us what to read. We
will tell editors what we choose to read”
(John Naisbitt, op.cit.)

In E-Science, Google becomes the reference for
scientific evaluation.
In conclusion
Speaking of the ICT revolution is no hype.
Information and Communication Technologies are
revolutionizing our World and their impact has not
been yet fully felt. The most important issue is not
technological, it is political and social, i.e. how to
master it for the benefit of the greatest number of
human beings.