Transcript The Complete IDC Intelligence Solution

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Welcome To The
HPC User Forum
Meeting
HLRS October 2010
Important Dates For Your Calendar
FUTURE HPC USER FORUM MEETINGS:
International Meetings:
 HLRS/University of Stuttgart, October 7/8, 2010
 SARA Computing & Networking Services,
Amsterdam, October 11/12, 2010
 Beijing, China, October 30th
2011 US Meetings:
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April 5 to 7, Houston, Texas
September 6 to 8, San Diego, California
Introduction: Logistics
We have a very tight agenda (as usual)
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Please help us keep on time!
Review handouts
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Note: We will post most of the presentations on
the web site
Please complete the evaluation form
HPC User Forum Mission
To Improve The Health Of The
High-performance Computing Industry
Through Open Discussions, Informationsharing And Initiatives Involving
HPC Users In Industry, Government And
Academia
Along With HPC Vendors
And Other Interested Parties
HPC User Forum Goals
• Assist HPC users in solving their ongoing computing,
technical and business problems
• Provide a forum for exchanging information, identifying
areas of common interest, and developing unified
positions on requirements
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By working with users in other sectors and vendors
 To help direct and push vendors to build better products
 Which should also help vendors become more successful
• Provide members with a continual supply of information
on:
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Uses of high end computers, new technologies, high end best
practices, market dynamics, computer systems and tools,
benchmark results, vendor activities and strategies
• Provide members with a channel to present their
achievements and requirements to interested parties
Steering Committee Members
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Steve Finn, BAE Systems, Chairman
Sharan Kalwani , KAUST, Vice Chairman
Earl Joseph, IDC, Executive Director
Vijay Agarwala, Penn State University
Alex Akkerman, Ford Motor Company
Doug Ball, The Boeing Company
Rupak Biswas NASA/Ames
Paul Buerger, Avetec
Steve Conway, IDC Research Vice President
Jack Collins, National Cancer Institute
Jeff Broughton. NERSC/Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
Merle Giles, NSCA/University of Illinois
Chris Catherasoo, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory
James Kasdorf, Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center
Doug Kothe, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Paul Muzio, City University of New York
Michael Resch , HLRS, University of Stuttgart
Marie-Christine Sawley, ETH Zurich - CERN Group
Vince Scarafino, Industry Expert
Robert Singleterry, NASA/Langley
IDC HPC
Market Update
Top Trends in HPC
The global economy in HPC appears to have leveled off
 The first half of 2010 grew by 2%
 We are forecasting 3% to 5% growth in 2010
 The high end of the market grew by 65% in 2009!
Major challenges for datacenters:
 Power, cooling, real estate, system management
 Storage and data management continue to grow in importance
Software hurdles will rise to the top for most users
 Driven heavily by multi-core processors and hybrid systems
 Application scaling and performance is a problem
SSDs will gain momentum and could redefine storage
GPUs are seeing real tractions in certain verticals
The worldwide Race on Petascale is in full speed
HPC Server Market Size By Competitive
Segments (first half of 2010)
HPC
Servers
$4,131M
Workgroup
(under $100K)
$699M
Supercomputers
(Over $500K)
$1,386M
Divisional
($250K - $500K)
$572M
Departmental
($250K - $100K)
$1,474M
HPC Market Results:
Revenues and System Units
Segment
Supercomputer
Divisional
Departmental
Workgroup
Grand Total
Segment
Supercomputer
Divisional
Departmental
Workgroup
Grand Total
Q110
Revenue ($K)
Q210
Revenue ($K)
Sequential
Growth
669,521
273,753
688,785
372,914
716,725
298,033
784,900
326,041
7.1%
8.9%
14.0%
-12.6%
2,004,973
2,125,700
6.0%
Q110
Shipments
Q210
Shipments
Sequential
Growth
527
865
4,094
20,987
703
945
4,762
21,592
33.4%
9.2%
16.3%
2.9%
26,473
28,002
5.8%
HPC Vendor Revenue Shares, Q210
NEC
0.8%
Cray
Dawning 0.4%
0.6%
Hitachi
0.5%
Other
10.4%
HP
33.3%
Bull
0.9%
Appro
1.2%
SGI
2.3%
Fujitsu
1.6%
Sun
2.2%
Dell
16.2%
IBM
29.5%
Revenue Share by Vendor
Supercomputer Segment, Q210
Fujitsu
0.3%
Sun
0.8%
Bull
NEC
Appro
2.6%
SGI 1.3% 0.2%
2.1%
Cray
1.3%
Other
1.8%
HP
27.4%
Dell
5.0%
IBM
57.2%
HPC Server Processor/Sockets
Metrics, First Half of 2010
CPU Type System ASP($K)
Ave.
CPUs/System
$(K)/CPU
CPUs /$M
69.1
25
2.7
364
EPIC
219.5
25
8.8
114
RISC
120.3
15
7.9
126
Vector
647.9
12
54.0
19
x86-64
Industry/Application Segments
Worldwide HPC Revenues ($M)
2008
Bio-Sciences
$1,412
CAE
$1,131
Chemical Engineering
$238
DCC & Distribution
$572
Economics/Financial
$281
EDA / IT / ISV
$751
Geosciences and Geo-engineering
$570
Mechanical Design and Drafting
$112
Defense
$920
Government Lab
$1,460
University/Academic
$1,852
Weather
$392
Other
$80
Total Revenue
$9,772
2009
$1,120
$874
$179
$460
$198
$540
$539
$73
$849
$1,349
$1,641
$353
$78
$8,252
HPC Server Revenue($K) Forecast
2008 - 2014
WW HPC Server Forecast, 2009 - 2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
CAGR
2014 (09-14)
Supercomputer
3,369,410 3,624,352 3,879,294 4,134,237 4,389,179 4,617,522
6.5%
Divisional
1,070,764 1,129,694 1,188,625 1,247,555 1,306,485 1,366,596
5.0%
Departmental
2,516,253 2,698,090 2,879,928 3,061,765 3,243,602 3,479,978
6.7%
Workgroup
1,680,687 1,787,410 1,894,133 2,000,856 2,107,579 2,242,167
5.9%
Total
8,637,114 9,239,547 9,841,980 10,444,413 11,046,846 11,706,263
6.3%
Source: IDC, 2010
Growth In The Broader HPC Market
Worldwide HPC Revenue for Server, Storage, Service and Software Revenue ($K) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
2011
2012
2013
CAGR
(09 - 13)
2008
2009
2010
Compute
$9,771,849
$8,637,114
$9,239,547
$9,841,980 $10,444,413 $11,046,846
6.3%
Storage
$3,371,288
$3,022,990
$3,280,039
$3,641,533
$3,968,877
$4,308,270
9.3%
Service
$1,856,651
$1,554,681
$1,686,217
$1,820,766
$1,958,327
$2,154,135
8.5%
Application Software
$3,322,429
$2,971,167
$3,215,362
$3,444,693
$3,759,989
$4,065,239
8.2%
Middleware
$1,172,622
$1,062,365
$1,154,943
$1,259,773
$1,357,774
$1,458,184
8.2%
$19,494,839 $17,248,317 $18,576,110 $20,008,745 $21,489,379 $23,032,673
7.5%
Total
Source: IDC, 2010
Conclusions
 2010 is a year of evolutionary rather than revolutionary
change in the worldwide HPC market
 Incremental advances will help, but not resolve persistent issues,
such as highly parallel programming challenges, power and
cooling costs, and software licensing costs
 IDC predicts the HPC market will resume growth in 2010
and grow by 3% to 5% in 2010
 And then will rebuild to exceed $11 billion by 2014
 The recovery will benefit HPC segments unevenly:
 With hard-hit verticals such as automotive recovering more slowly
than oil and gas, or government and academia
 The Supercomputer segment growth will remain turbo-charged by
government spending aimed at HPC leadership and “petaflop
club” membership
Questions?
Please email:
[email protected]
Or check out:
www.hpcuserforum.com
Agenda: Day One
12:45
13:00
13:15
13:45
14:15
14:45
15:00
15:30
16:00
16:15
16:45
17:00
17:30
18:30
HPC User Forum Welcome/Introductions, Steve Finn and Earl Joseph
HLRS Welcome/Introductions, Michael Resch
HPC in Europe from a PRACE Perspective, Thomas Eickermann
Ideas About the Future of HPC in Europe, Bernhard Fabianek
HPC Industrial Partnerships, Merle Giles, NCSA
Vendor Technical Update, Microsoft New HPC Directions
Break
HPC in Japan, Dr. Toshikazu Takada
Vendor Technology Update, T-Platforms
Daimler Research Update, Lina Longhitano
IDC EU HPC Recommendations for Leadership
HPC at EXTOLL, Mondrian Nuessle
After Meeting Socializing
End of First Day
Welcome
To Day 2 Of The
HPC User Forum
Meeting
Important Dates For Your Calendar
FUTURE HPC USER FORUM MEETINGS:
International Meetings:
 HLRS/University of Stuttgart, October 7/8, 2010
 SARA Computing & Networking Services,
Amsterdam, October 11/12, 2010
 Beijing, China, October 30th
2011 US Meetings:


April 5 to 7, Houston, Texas
September 6 to 8, San Diego, California
Agenda: Day Two
9:00
9:10
9:30
9:55
10:20
10:45
11:00
11:35
12:00
12:30
12:55
1:00
Welcome/Logistics, Earl Joseph and Steve Finn, BAE Systems
A Perspective on HPC, Michael Resch, HLRS
The PRACE industrial offer preview, Stefan Wesner, HLRS
ASCS/Porsche End User HPC Site Update, Erich Schelkle
High Performance Computing for Flight Projects at JPL, Chris
Catherasoo, NASA JPL
PRACE Industry Activities, Dr. Stefan Wesner
Break
SimTech and Industry, Wolfgang Ehlers
HPC Usage for Industrial-Relevant Combustion Problems, Benedetto
Risio, RECOM
HPC Research Using Jaguar at ORNL, Don Maxwell
Wrap up and plans for future HPC User Forum meetings, Earl Joseph
and Steve Finn
Farewell and Lunch
Agenda: Day Two
11:35 SimTech and Industry, Wolfgang Ehlers
12:00 HPC Usage for Industrial-Relevant Combustion
Problems, Benedetto Risio, RECOM
12:30 HPC Research Using Jaguar at ORNL, Don
Maxwell
12:55 Wrap up and plans for future HPC User Forum
meetings, Earl Joseph and Steve Finn
1:00 Farewell and Lunch
Important Dates For Your Calendar
FUTURE HPC USER FORUM MEETINGS:
International Meetings:
 HLRS/University of Stuttgart, October 7/8, 2010
 SARA Computing & Networking Services,
Amsterdam, October 11/12, 2010
 Beijing, China, October 30th
2011 US Meetings:


April 5 to 7, Houston, Texas
September 6 to 8, San Diego, California
Thank You
th
For Attending The 38
HPC User Forum
Meeting
Questions?
Please email:
[email protected]
Or check out:
www.hpcuserforum.com