Transcript Decision Makers, Value Propositions, and Project Failures

Decision Making,
Value Propositions, and
Project Failures
Reality and Responsibility
INCOSE
Las Vegas
September 15-18
Rick Dove
[email protected]
Paradigm Shift International
Anonymous Case Study: Projects and Value Propositions
That will probably stick
 Staffed integration-management responsibility
 Agile enterprise IT infrastructure (XML bus, ETL templates)
 On-Demand application integration (anything anytime)
That will probably be lost
 Access to comprehensive information On-Demand
 Differentiated eBusiness strategy
 Dept-manager responsibility for IT business tools
 Business-engineering office
 Comprehensive employee involvement in customer service
That were planned but will probably not be implemented
 Strategy Portfolio Management system
 Agile-culture development and maintenance
 Agile security strategy
© 2004 RKDove, Paradigm Shift International, www.parshift.com
Attributed Copies Permitted
Case Stdy: Hindsight Observations
Value propositioning insufficiently addressed for execs
 CEO vision was articulated, but not bought into by others
 Benefits of agile vision neither appreciated, nor taught
Major attention focus conflict
 Production focused on plant/process construction (Herculean)
 Sales/Marketing focused on getting orders (Herculean)
 Other areas struggling with OJT and cultural conflicts
Unresolved responsibility gaps
 Copy-Exact MES untouchable, isolationist (Mfg Execution Sys)
 Unresolved data-integrity conflict between ERP and MES
 Unresolved ownership of eBusiness strategy & proj mgmnt
Unresolved cultural conflicts
 Serious intercultural cold war and gang politics
 Competency and performance not appreciated concepts
Unsustainable implementation and strategy
 Mandate to hire local IT, but insufficient capabilities available
© 2004 RKDove, Paradigm Shift International, www.parshift.com
Attributed Copies Permitted
Project Failure Defined
Project fails to deliver acceptable ROI = Implementation Failure
 project terminated before completion
 needs cease to exist - the world changed unpredictably
 necessary resources become insufficient or unavailable
 decision makers have a change of heart or are replaced
 project ill defined = resources inefficiently applied
 project incorrectly defined = user rejection or insufficient value
Project fails to deliver as proposed = Proposal Failure
 project exceeds budget
 project exceeds time
 project doesn't meet spec
Caused by Inadequate Value Propositioning
© 2004 RKDove, Paradigm Shift International, www.parshift.com
Attributed Copies Permitted
Individual Decision Logic
Decision Makers hear promised benefits
with a bit of healthy skepticism.
Kaheman & Tvarsky: Prospect Theory
Individual
Decision
Behavior
reflects valuation as:
In the information technology arena,
with a good deal of skepticism.
They associate a
with
probability,
that a benefit
Psychological
will
deliver as
Bias
looks like
promised.
Non-Linear
Relative
unless
shaped as
Ruiness
Outcome
"S" Curve
Value
Over
Under
Over
Low Prob
High Prob
Certainty
[interpretation
of Prospect
Theory]
Weighted
Weighted
Weighted
Under
Valued
Increases
to
Status
Quo
shaped by
They know
Initial
Loss
Gain
Gains/Losses
from
Dominate
experience
effect is
that
Diminishing
Incremental
honest
Values
claims assume ideal
conditions of implementation,
results in
results in
results in
results in
transfer, and acceptance.
Formulation
Dependent
Losses
Loom
Larger
which
biases
Knowledge
Dependent
by
if DM has
Elimination
Hopes and
Expectations
sets neutral
point of
Perception as
Loss or Gain
if
Chunking
Probabilities
Not
Significant
High
Knowledge
Low
Knowledge
perceptions of
effect is
Steeper
Negative
Values
Simplified
Low
Probability
Gain
results in
results in
Loss
Averse
Behavior
Risk
Seeking
Behavior
High
Probability
Loss
results in
Risk
Averse
Behavior
High
Probability
Gain
Low
Probability
Loss
results in
Simplification
results in
Under
Weighted
Prob
results in
Over
Weighted
Prob
Probability (Prob) is the subjective likelihood, assumed by a Decision Maker, that a proposed benefit will deliver as promised.
© 2004, Rick Dove, Value Propositioning – Book One – Perception and Misperception in Decision Making, Iceni Books, 2004
Attributed Copies Permitted
Group Decision Logic
Group
Decision
Behavior
involves
The Decision Maker "...looks for a
course of action that is satisfactory,
or 'good
enough'....Because
Objective
Perception
Setting
Creation
administrators satisfice ... they can
includes
interpreting
make their decisions with
Value
Propositions
relatively simple
from
Influenced by
rules of thumb Attention
Focus
Candidate
that do not
Training and
Solutions
Experience
make
Simple
selected by
Patterns
impossible
Decision
Search
Psychology
Process
demands
Unresolved
Conflict
determined by
upon their
Amount of
Org Slack
capacity
forObjective
thought.
Performance
Targets
List
Choice
based on
Standard
Rules
based on
Past
Experience
avoids
uncertainty by
Past Org
Slack
Mitigating
Conflict
by
Who's
Searching
Simplification
may
based on
Similarity
based on
to Current
lead
to error, but there is
Solution
Past
Objectives
no realistic alternative
Past
in the Performface of the
limits on
human DM's
PerformGroup
ance
ance of
Members
Objectives
knowledge andOthers
reasoning."
[Herb Simon]
Cyert & March: Behavioral Theory of the Firm
Simon: Administrative Behavior
Acceptable
Level Rules
Sequential
Attention
Short Term
View
Negotiated
Predictability
results in
results in
results in
results in
Lowest
Commonality
Postponing
Some
Objectives
Contract
Terms
"Satisficing"
Valuation
Problem
Perception
© 2004, Rick Dove, Value Propositioning – Book One – Perception and Misperception in Decision Making, Iceni Books, 2004
Attributed Copies Permitted
Misperception Logic
Plous: Behavioral Psychology of Decision Making
Recreating from memory what was
witnessed at an auto accident is not
unlike trying to remember what was
shown in a project presentation,
or what was read in a
written proposal.
Information is Context
Dependence
selectively
may use
filtered and
Contrast
Primacy
Recency
interpreted
by
the observer
Effect
Effect
Effect
in the
process
of
becoming
making
meaning
meaning
memory and First
perception.
Last
Comparison
Perception
Perception
Thewith
end result is will
a be
setSpecific
of perceptions
Dominate
Reference
Perception
that are both
incomplete
and different than the
original information.
[paraphrasing Plous]
Misperception
is caused by
Perception
Creation
Memory
Bias
determined by
determined by
Selective
Perception
Halo
Effect
making
Associated
Perceptions
conform to
conforms to
Cognitive
Dissonance
Hindsight
Bias
forces
believing
Consistency
Past
Event
Hopes
was
Expectations
with
Self
Image
Predictable
Reconstruction
of Event
from
Partial
Memory
filled in
with
by changing
Old
Perceptions
Other
Information
Inferred
Details
drawn from
results in
Biased
Knowledge
© 2004, Rick Dove, Value Propositioning – Book One – Perception and Misperception in Decision Making, Iceni Books, 2004
Associated
Memories
Attributed Copies Permitted
Perception Formation Logic
Perception
Formation
"The most important single factor
influencing learning is
what the learner already knows.
Ascertain this and
teach him accordingly."
[David Ausebel]
David Ausebel, Meaningful Learning
Joseph Novak, Concept Maps
is
Learning
which
creates
with dimensions of
Knowledge
which appears to be
Relevancy
Source
has scale spanning
has scale spanning
Rote
Close Prior
Knowledge
Meaningful
with
principles
of
requires
learner with
Interest in
Material
Commitment
To Learn
Internal Self
Discovery
Hierarchy
as
New Info
Subsumed
Under Old
External
Presentation
reflecting
Structured
Concepts
that can be
modeled as
Concept
Maps
consisting of
Progressive
Differen_
tiation
Integrative
Reconciliation
Concepts
as
as
connected by
Increasing
Linkage &
Refinement
Cross Links
& Fixed Links
Relationships
© 2004, Rick Dove, Value Propositioning – Book One – Perception and Misperception in Decision Making, Iceni Books, 2004
Attributed Copies Permitted
Case Study: Hindsight Lessons
Value propositioning for main decision should never stop
 People will not listen until they are ready
 Focus individually on individual's values
Success constraints should be addressed with
separate and continuous value propositioning
 Do not assume problems are understood, make the case
Responsibility voids and conflicts must be resolved early
 IT cannot get cooperation w/o business mgr's commitment
Cultural engineering should start early
 Soft stuff is hard part, and cannot be postponed
There is no substitute for competency and talent
 Plan sustainability up front and act early
© 2004 RKDove, Paradigm Shift International, www.parshift.com
Attributed Copies Permitted
Value
Propositioning
Book One
Perception and Misperception in Decision Making
by Rick Dove
– Book One –
Perception and Misperception
in Decision Making
Nov 2004, Iceni Books,
14 Chapters, ~60 pages, $15.00
Pre-publish PDF available now
– Book Two –
Competency and Talent
of Decision Champions
Q2 2005
– Book Three –
Responsibility and Skill
of Decision Makers
Q4 2005
© 2004 RKDove, Paradigm Shift International, www.parshift.com
Attributed Copies Permitted