Framework Programme 6, Call 1A Thematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10

Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research

STEPs Project Scenarios for Transport and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects

Angelo Martino – [email protected]

Davide Fiorello - [email protected]

TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 1

Objectives

STEPs: Scenarios for the Transport system and Energy supply and their Potential effects (January 2004 – July 2006) Funded by EC (6 th Framework Programme Research) • To develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and energy supply in Europe • To use these results to assist in future decisions in the field of land use, transport and energy supply TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 2

Policy questions addressed

STEPs has attempted to answer questions such as… • What are viable scenarios regarding transport and energy?

• Which measures have to be taken to achieve the targets?

• What can and should decision makers take along in their long-term considerations?

• To what degree can technological progress contribute? And demand management?

• What are transport impacts of the scenarios on mobility patterns? And on non-transport impacts?

TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 3

The scenarios matrix

Columns:

policy approach

Rows

: low/high oil price growth Low oil price growth High oil price growth No policies Business as Usual A-1 A0 Demand regulation A1 Technology investment A2 B-1 B0 B1 B2 TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 4

The simulation models

EUROPEAN MODELS    POLES (analysing the world energy market, transport and socio-economic interconnections) ASTRA (focused on linkages between transport, economy and environment) SASI (concerning the impacts of transport on socio economic development) REGIONAL LAND-USE AND TRANSPORT MODELS     

Edinburgh Dortmund Helsinki South Tyrol Brussels

TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 5

POLES-ASTRA modelling loop

Transport costs – transport demand

From oil price assumptions to fuel price development

Car fleet – Fuel price development

Low oil price growth High oil price growth Oil price development (2005 – 2030) +2% p.a.

+7% p.a.

Pure fuel price development (2005 – 2030) +1% p.a.

+4% p.a.

TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 6

No policies scenario results

Main results

 Transport demand continues to grow steadily and significantly  Freight demand growth exceeds the economic growth measured in terms of GDP: i.e. no decoupling  Car ownership is growing but with a decreasing growth rate.

 Energy consumption is decreasing (thanks to road vehicle fleet renewal)  CO 2 emissions are stable or slightly increasing  Average accessibility of European regions is increasing (thanks to Trans-European Networks) TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 7

Business-as-Usual scenario results

Low oil price growth

 Transport demand is not significantly affected  Car and road freight continue to be the main modes  Total energy consumption and polluting emissions are substantially unchanged  Growth of GDP and employment is slightly reduced, (base trend of the reference scenario not significantly changed)  Average accessibility for European passengers and freight is reduced TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 8

High oil prices scenario results

Transport variables

ASTRA model: Passengers-km (EU25 Member States)

130 125 120 115 110 105 100 2005 2010 2015 Reference 2020 High oil price 2025 2030 TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 9

High oil prices scenario results

Environment variables

Dortmund model: polluting emissions

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2005 2010 2015 NOx - Reference PM - Reference 2020 2025 2030 NOx - High oil price PM - High oil price TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 10

High oil prices scenario results

Social and economic variables

ASTRA model: Employment (EU25 Member States)

120 116 112 108 104 100 2005 2010 Reference 2015 2020 2025 High oil price 2030 TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 11

High oil prices scenario results

Main results

 Pressure for improving efficiency and using alternative sources of energy  Slight reduction of total mobility  Some shift to non-road modes  Passenger demand more elastic than freight demand (reduction in car ownership)  Polluting emissions further decreased (locally and CO 2 )  GDP and employment growth only slightly reduced  Accessibility not dramatically damaged TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 12

The effects of policy leverages

Transport variables

ASTRA model: Passengers-km (EU25 Member States)

130 125 120 115 110 105 100 2010 2015 Technology investments 2025 Demand regulation 2030 TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 13

The effects of policy leverages

Energy variables

POLES model: Share of energy from renewable sources

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2005 Reference 2010 Technology investments 2015 2020 High oil price 2025 Demand regulation 2030 TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 14

The effects of policy leverages

Environment variables (2005 – 2030)

ASTRA model: CO2 emissions (EU25 Member States)

125 100 75 50 2005 2010 2015 Reference Technology investments 2020 2025 2030 High oil price Demand regulation TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 15

The effects of policy leverages

Social and economic variables

ASTRA model: Employment (25 EU Member States)

125 120 115 110 105 100 2005 2010 2015

Reference Technology investments

2020 2025 2030

High oil price Demand regulation

TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 16

The effects of policy leverages

Technology investment:

 neutral impact on economic development  additional investments, acceleration of fleet renewal  positive development of energy consumption  reduction of polluting emissions and CO2 TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 17

The effects of policy leverages

Demand regulation:

 transport demand slow down  further reduction of polluting emissions and CO2  road transport sector is penalised  negative impact on the economy (but still growing significantly)  reduced accessibility of regions TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 18

Conclusions

– Scarcity of oil could accelerate the development and take up of alternative fuel technologies, – Investment in alternative technologies alone will alleviate the impact of local emissions and reduce unitary energy consumption but will only reduce yearly CO2 emissions after a time lag of about 15 years, – Some form of regulation of demand will be necessary to reduce total emissions and externalities caused by congestion.

– Demand regulation measures could significantly impact on people’s lifestyles and impose severe constraints on personal mobility TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 19

Thank you for your attention

Angelo Martino – [email protected]

Davide Fiorello - [email protected]

TRT Trasporti e Territorio FTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 20