Transcript Radar & lidar observations from Chilbolton

Reading – Met Office collaboration
Reading RAP
University: R Hogan, P-J van Leeuwen, K Shine, A O’Neill, R Sutton,
S Gray, J Methven
Met Office: R Kershaw, D Barker, P Stott
Science themes
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From processes to parameterisation to future models
Advanced data assimilation
High-resolution convective- and urban-scale modelling
Multi-scale predictability and ensembles
Attribution and seasonal-to-decadal prediction of climate through
observation and process understanding
6. Application of the science of climate and its application in
adaptation and mitigation decision-making
7. Space weather
Diabatic influences on
mesoscale structures in
extratropical storms
What is the origin, structure, and dynamical consequence of
diabatically-generated flow anomalies in cyclonic storms and what
are their consequences for rainfall and surface winds?
A. Observations and detailed modelling
– Observational campaign in four phases (aircraft and radar)
– Doug Parker, Sue Gray, Peter Knippertz, Dave Schultz
– Roy Kershaw, Phil Brown, Jon Taylor, Malcolm Kitchen
B. Parametrization of physical processes
– Convection in cyclones, ocean & BL fluxes, latent heat release in clouds
– Bob Plant, Ian Renfrew, Tom Choularton
– Humphrey Lean, Paul Field
C. Predictability at the mesoscale
– Ensembles and DA, balances at small scales, link to precipitation
– John Methven, Peter Jan van Leeuwen, Ross Bannister
– Sue Ballard, Nigel Roberts, Richard Swinbank, Dale Barker
Data Assimilation
• Confronting atmospheric models with observations
– Kelly/Migliorini/Lean - Improving the use of satellite atmospheric
motion vectors in high resolution NWP (EUMETSAT fellow)
– Eyre/Pavelin/Migliorini - improved methods for presenting satellite
radiance information to NWP systems – EUMETSAT/CASE
• Land data assimilation
– May workshop - Mason/Garcia-Pintado/Gurney - Macpherson/Barker
– Reading recently hired new Lecturer Tristan Quaife
• Coupled ocean-atmosphere-land data assimilation
– Haines integrating project + Lawless, van Leeuwen, Matthews/Barker
• Convective-scale data assimilation
– Balance, ensembles, covariances: Dance/Bannister/Ballard
• Opportunities for expanded collaboration
– COPE – convection field campaign and DA
– Space weather – assimilating STEREO obs. into a solar wind model
© Crown copyright Met Office
Improving radar
assimilation & nowcasting
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Anthony Illingworth, Rob Thompson, John Nicol
Malcolm Kitchen, Tim Darlington, Sue Ballard,
Jacqueline Sugier
Radar attenuation is the big problem in quantitative estimates of rainfall
Can lead to substantial underestimates in severe flooding events
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New idea: attenuating targets
also emit microwaves and total
attenuation can be estimated
from increased receiver noise
Met Office shortly to fund Rob
Thompson to evaluate this
Future work: assimilation
Wimbledon storm 28 June 2011
– Emission indicates total
attenuation up to 7 dB
– Corresponds to a factor of 3
underestimate in rainfall
which can now be corrected
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Also collaboration on assimilation
of refractivity and insect winds
DYMECS
Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms
Robin Hogan (PI), Bob Plant, Thorwald Stein, Kirsty Hanley, Humphrey Lean, Emilie Carter
– Gathering statistics on hundreds of storms and tracking their evolution with radar
– Will statistically evaluate the evolution of storm size, rain rate, ice water content, updraft
strength in UM, plus testing new configurations and higher resolutions
– Application successful to use mOnSoOn
Radar observations
Forecast plan-view of rainfall
National radar network rainfall
16.00 on 26
August 2011
Rain rate (mm h-1)
Met Office 1.5 km model
Forecast
3D storm
structure
3D structure
observed by
Chilbolton
Atmospheric Science for Health
Impacts of Urban Air Quality
NERC consortium led by Reading
(Stephen Belcher) with 11 other
institutes including the Met Office
Health Drivers
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Particulate matter
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Ozone and NOx
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Heat waves
Measurement strategy
Establish infrastructure
Long-term measurements to
investigate seasonal variations
IOPs for process studies
Link to ACTUAL Urban
Atmospheric Laboratory obs
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Atmospheric Science Questions
Urban meteorology (Reading – Met Office)
– Heat balance and BL depth
Evolution of particulate matter
– Size, composition & processing
Evolution of gas phase
– Emission, oxidation & processing
Process Studies
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Predictive tools
Strengths and weaknesses
Urban meteorology
Janet Barlow, Stephen Belcher, Sylvia
Bohnenstengel, Sian Lane, Humphrey Lean…
Model development
• Joint development of MORUSES urban
scheme now introduced into JULES/UM
• Collaboration using mOnSoOn service
Evaluation
• Long-term UKV being evaluated using
Doppler lidar and other ACTUAL obs
• Large opportunity for evaluation of AQUM
at high resolution over London with the
huge ClearfLo dataset
London urban heat island effect
modelled using high resolution
UK (Sylvia Bohnenstengel)
Process studies
• Boundary layer structure & depth over
London
• Sea breezes & air quality
• Urban heat island
• Diurnal cycle
AMDAR profiles
Helen Dacre, Alan Grant, Robin Hogan, Dave Thompson,
Volcanic Ash
andMarenco,
Observations
Volcanic
AshPredictions
Jim Haywood, Franco
Ben Devenish
The Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted in April 2010 emitting a plume of ash into the
atmosphere. The Met Office and the University of Reading collaborated in providing
urgently needed model simulations of the ash plume
The FAAM aircraft in-situ
measurements of volcanic
ash have been used to
evaluate the NAME model
Grant et al (2012), in prep.
Dacre et al. (2012), in prep.
Doppler lidars measurements at
Chilbolton and Exeter have been
used to evaluate the NAME
model
Dacre et al. (2011), JGR
Devenish et al. (2011), Atmos. Env.
Marenco and Hogan (2012), JGR
The MO and UoR have collaborated on a
NERC proposal (PURE) to quantify the
uncertainty of volcanic ash forecasts using a
variety of statistical and physical models.
NCAS-Climate@Reading
collaborations with Met Office
• High-res global modelling and applications (e.g. tropical
and mid-latitude cyclones (P-L Vidale, L Shaffrey) - JWCRP post
• Attribution (R Sutton, J Gregory) including Changing Water
Cycle - Joint posts & PhD student
• Asian summer monsoon (A Turner) - JWCRP post
• Ocean heat uptake and sea level (J Gregory)
• Atmosphere-land surface interactions (P-L Vidale)
• Convection (S Woolnough) – including CASCADE project
• Monthly to decadal variability, predictability and prediction
(R Sutton, E Hawkins, L Shaffrey, E Guilyardi) – joint NERC &
EU projects e.g. VALOR, THOR, SPECS
• Mid-latitude storms, storm tracks & blocking (L Shaffrey,
T Woolings)
• Radiation and the water cycle in models and obs (R Allan)
Development of process-based
fingerprints for attribution
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Changing water cycle (Beena Sarojini, jointly funded post-doc)
– GCM experiments to unpick the competing role of CO2 rise and aerosols
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More thoroughly account for role of natural internal variability (Vikki Frith,
PhD student with Peter Stott, Rowan Sutton and Ed Hawkins)
Improved understanding of ocean heat content and sea level rise (Proposed
PhD studentship with Jonathan Gregory, Matt Palmer)
Zonal mean precipitation
changes as observed
(coloured lines) and
modelled (MM)
© Crown copyright Met Office
Improved decadal predictions
through better use of
observational constraints
• Ed Hawkins and Peter Stott
• Weight future model
predictions by their
agreement with previous
observational constraints
(ASK) to get better decadal
predictions
– Figure for AR5 Chapter 11
© Crown copyright Met Office
Space weather
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Coronal mass ejections have potential to knock out
satellites, kill astronauts, overload power grids…
– Met Office is developing new forecasting system
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Reading has strong expertise in this area
– Lots of scope for collaboration (modelling, assimilation…)
– Several proposals pending with Met Office involvement
Matt Owens (Lecturer)
– Numerical modelling
– CME observations
Prof Mike Lockwood
– Long-term solar variations
– Magnetosphere
– energetic particles
Chris Davis (Reader)
– STEREO mission PI
– Ionospheric physics
Some key challenges to address by theme
1. From processes to parameterisation to future models
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Boundary-layer clouds, deep convection, ocean mixing, radiative transfer
New dynamical core development (GUNG-HO project)
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Convective-scale data assimilation (e.g. FLOOD opportunity)
Making use of new observations (clouds, refractivity, radar polarization…)
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Enabling COPE science to go ahead
Collaboration on AQUM at 1.5 km in urban areas
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Strat-trop interaction, convective-scale ensembles, exploiting DIAMET obs…
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Process-based model evaluation, also involving NCEO, NCAS
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Enhance impacts prediction (e.g. flooding/crops) via better links to Walker
Institute
2. Advanced data assimilation
3. High-resolution convective- and urban-scale modelling
4. Multi-scale predictability and ensembles
5. Attribution and seasonal-to-decadal prediction of climate through
observation and process understanding
6. Application of the science of climate and its application in adaptation and
mitigation decision-making
7. Space weather
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Data assimilation and space weather collaboration at Reading
Met Office investment: 1.5 FTEs – enough to build new capability?