Transcript Clincal Trials: Introduction
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Dortmund 227, Sheffield 4
The Record of Dortmund-Sheffield Exchanges
Nick Fieller Department of Probability & Statistics, University of Sheffield
visiting
Fachbereich Statistik, Universit ät Dortmund
8 th March 2004
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Synopsis
The Universities of Dortmund & Sheffield have had a formal Academic Cooperation Agreement since 1980 which is renowned throughout both countries and further afield.
• • • How did this develop?
Who was involved?
What are the benefits? 2
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Outline
Historical Development Personalities Statistical analysis Benefits Statistics in Sheffield
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Historical Development
The story starts in Karlsruhe, 1976 • ICME 1976 – International Congress on Mathematical Education [chance?] meeting between Peter Holmes, Vic Barnett & Fred Eicker • • Vic : – Head of Department in Sheffield Peter : – Director of Statistical Education Centre Discovered common interest in Statistical Education, particularly at school level 4
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I recall Vic reporting later in Sheffield that he had met a Professor from a German University which had a new Statistics Department
&
This Department
‘felt lonely’
since it was the only
real
statistics department in the country, so had suggested forming a link with Sheffield.
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Various meetings and visits followed: Particularly: – • Vic Barnett and Clive Anderson • Siegfried Heiler, Fred Eicker, Wolfgang Urfer A draft proposal was drawn up & signed on 11 November 1979 A formal
Programme of Academic Cooperation
was signed in Dortmund on
8 August 1980
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The first six students from Dortmund came to Sheffield in October 1980 • & every year from then until 2002 I (& family) spent three months in Dortmund in Spring, 1981 Wolfgang & Barbara Urfer came to Sheffield in Spring 1981 for a month – [kindly lending us their flat…] In 1982 the first Sheffield student came to Dortmund • & the second in 1994, the 3 rd in 2000, 4 th 2003!
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Other Landmarks:
1988: – Start of •
ERASMUS
University of Lisbon joins as scheme by EU a third partner to form network • Provides generous funding for staff travel – – Annual Sheffield meeting for all network coordinators Bilateral visits 1991: – the
100 th
student from Dortmund comes to Sheffield –– Mathias Rusert 10
Bob Loynes presents a beer tankard to Mathias
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Other Landmarks:
1987: –
• Start of
ERASMUS
scheme by EU University of Lisbon joins as a third partner to form a network • Provides generous funding for staff travel – Annual Sheffield meeting for all network coordinators – Bilateral visits
1991: –
the 100th student from Dortmund comes to Sheffield –– Mathias Rusert
1989
:
other partners join the network • UPC Barcelona, Amsterdam, AUEB Athens, Perugia, Montpellier, Tampere, – Many student exchanges in all directions – » (especially from Dortmund) ~ 40 incoming students to Sheffield each year 1990 –95 11
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1994:
– Last meeting of Erasmus network coordinators in Sheffield 12 Ali ( Montpellier) Luigi ( Perugia) Kiki (Athens ) Wolfgang ( Dortmund) Lupe ( Barcelona)
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A Solar Eclipse marks the event 13
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Since then Erasmus Network replaced by Socrates bilateral agreements: • • Less money More bureaucracy But
Sheffield students started to travel
• New degree scheme MMath(Eur) allows 30% of time studying language – German/French/Italian/Spanish/Dutch/Catalan – Took
7 years
from 1 st idea to 1 st student abroad 14
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France • • • • 14 Montpellier 5 Versailles 3 Caen 4 Le Mans Spain • 2 Barcelona Italy • 1 Perugia Germany/Austria • • • • • 2 Dortmund 5 Augsburg 2 Dresden 1 Kaiserslautern 2 Graz Netherlands • 1 Amsterdam
42 in Total
enough of history………
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Personalities:
The first ambassadors in 1980: –
•
Heiko Becher
•
Sabine Brenneisen
•
Soeren Kristiansen
•
Petra Neumann
•
Willi Sauerbrei
•
Wolfgang Schumann
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Heiko Sabine Soeren Petra Willi
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Wolfgang
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Followed by:
1981: –
•
Gisella Kesting
and in 1982: –
•
Arno Schell
•
Rainer Muche
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And in 1983: –
•
Marita Durek
•
Reiner Latsch
•
Uwe Müller
•
Christoph Schröder
•
Claudia Spix
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Via: –
20
Berthold Lausen 1984 Sabine Landau 1985 Johannes Fa ßbinder 1989 Dietrich Alte 1995 Vivian Lanius 1997
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Achim Zeileis 1998
To the most recent (2002)
Wiebke Haupt
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Henrike Feuersenger
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Including several family pairs: –
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Astrid (1999) & Henrike (2003) Feuersenger
Note: one of these was
Viviane (1987) & Veit (1994) Grunert Ulrike (1995) & Siegfried
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Schach
Including several family pairs: –
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Astrid (1999) & Henrike (2003) Feuersenger
Daniel Fieller
Klaus (1993) & Joerg (1995) Langohr Viviane (1987) & Veit (1994) Grunert Ulrike (1995) & Siegfried
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Schach
& not forgetting
Stephanie Scheid Klaus Nordhausen Frauke Jantzen who took my Medical Statistics course in Tampere, April 2000 • (& with apologies to the 200+ not commemorated here) 24
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The Sheffield 4 in the other direction: –
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Peter Cooper (1982) Polly Hardy (1994) Christine Romslo (2000)
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Rhiannon Maudsley (2003)
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Peter Cooper (1982) Polly Hardy (1994) Now lecturing in Medical Statistics in London (LSH&TM) Christine Romslo (2000) Now working at Girling in K öln
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Rhiannon Maudsley (2003)
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Peter Cooper (1982) (50% English) Polly Hardy (1994) (English) Christine Romslo (2000) (Norwegian)
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Rhiannon Maudsley (2003) (Welsh)
To be followed by next year : –
Gemma Stephenson & Oliver John
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Both English — 133% increase in total!
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Statistical Analysis — Future Trends
15 10 Dortmund 5 1980 1985 1990 trend 1995 2000 Zero in 2003 ??? 2004/5/6
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Sheffield
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Statistical Analysis — Future Trends
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trend 10 Dortmund 5 1980
2 Sheffield 1 2000 Zero in 2003 ??? 2004/5/6 1985 1990 1995 2000 The Kramer-Huff Upper Bound may not apply in this case 2003 2004
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Two useful statistical guides : –
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very edition
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Objectives
Original Agreement called for
Student Exchange
• Take courses, transfer credits
Staff Exchange
• Visits for 1-6 months
Material Exchange
• Research reports, papers,…
Seminars/Colloquia
• Workshops, conferences
Statistical Education
• Especially school level
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Student exchange
Yes (and improving)
Staff Exchange
Most Sheffield staff visited Dortmund in 1980 – 83 Many Dortmund staff visited Sheffield Only 1 extended visit (me in 1981) Very few visits in last 10 years
Material Exchange
Sheffield research reports sent to Dortmund None received from Dortmund for ? years 34
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Seminars/Colloquia
First Anglo-German Statistical Conference in Dortmund, 1982 Second one in …………??
Statistical Education
Any joint activity??
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Objectives
Original Agreement called for
Student Exchange
Staff Exchange
Material Exchange
Seminars/Colloquia
Statistical Education
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Benefits
Clear benefits to participating students Many participants now in major positions Clear personal development • (especially noticed in returning Sheffield students in last 6 years) • Maybe partly self-selection but not entirely 37
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Clear benefit to Sheffield
It’s a pleasure to have some of the
best
students from the
best
across Europe Universities Good for ‘ordinary’ Sheffield students •
If they won’t go to Europe then I’ll bring Europe to them
Provides a significant source of PhD (& MSc) students •
Viviane Grunert
–
+ 6 other PhDs + 8 MSc
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Our Dortmund visitors particularly show our students different attitudes to study and different ways of approaching work Especially good in collaborative data analysis projects 39 We particularly appreciate the courtesy when Dortmund students switch to English when talking to each other.
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Statistics in Sheffield
Bayesian Statistics
Major Bayesian Statistics group in UK Tony O’Hagan + 50% of Department • Health Economics – National Institute for Clinical Excellence (
NICE
) • Risk Assessment in Industry and Government
Environmental Statistics
Clive Anderson et al
Archaeostatistics
Caitlin Buck, Paul Blackwell (& me) 40
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My interests: – Currently 6 PhD students
41 Facial identification • Multivariate shape analysis • Use of statistics in forensic evidence – Funded by US Government (FBI) Archaeostatistics • Tree-ring sequences, Robust Time Series analysis Bioinformatics • Microarrays, tumour images, high content cell biology – Funded by AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals Design of Clinical Trials • Covariate adaptive methods
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Bioinformatics :
Data from microarrays gives gene expression levels for ~13,000 genes.
Very high dimensional data sets, very ‘noisy’ data, subject to contamination
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Bioinformatics (ct
d
.)
:
E14M34: 50mg dose NMR Images of tumour before & after treatment: use statistical characterization of images as measure of response to treatment. Very high dimensional data sets, very ‘noisy’ data, subject to contamination …….
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Norak Transfluor HTS – samples of images 44 High Content Cell Biology
non-hit hit potent hit
false positives toxicity compound fluorescence over confluency imaging error
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Archaeostatistics:
45 PhD student Julie Hopkins measuring mummy pots in British Museum, April 1997.
What was their provenance?
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Saqqara, Egypt At top of 10m shaft leading to labyrinth
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Sample size calculations are important…………….
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Inside labyrinth: note broken pots
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Intact pots
in situ
in labyrinth gallery Now need a random sample of size 20………… Complex sampling problems, messy data, ……..
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Tree-Ring Dating
This photo has 2 full rings, the left-most ring having a false band.
This phenomena can also occur in ways much more difficult to detect.
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Facial Identification
(See GfKl 2004)
53 Traditional anthropometric landmarks
coordinates captured ‘manually’ with public domain software
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Four subjects from the 2002 pilot study
Different sections of the face are censored so only use landmarks common to a pair of faces
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+ + * * * * * + * * * + + * * * * + + + + + * * * + * * * + + + + + + + + * * * + * * * * * + + * * 55 Indication of variability between different faces -0.4
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Plots of range of
3 s.d.s in mean position of 6 landmarks
0.6
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Indication of variability between different measures of same face -0.4
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0.0
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Cluster analysis of Procrustes coordinates of mean shapes of 48 images from 2 sections of catalogue: matches identified
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http://www.shef.ac.uk/nickfieller
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