Transcript Flexible parametric illness

Flexible parametric illness-death models
Sally R. Hinchliffe
David A. Scott
The Stata Journal (2013)
Paul C. Lambert
Mutually exclusive endponts
Competing risks model
Death cause 1
State 1
Death cause 2
Death cause 3
Transient/Intermediary events
Death cause 1
State 1
Death cause 2
Death cause 3
Bidirectional illness-death model
Example
Alive and well
Ill
Authors focus on unidirectional models!
Dead
Main measures of interest
• Transition hazards
-the impact of risk factors on rates of illness or mortality
• Probability of being in each state as a function
of time
-on which state should we base prognosis and clinical decisions?
Pupose of article
• Set up data using illdprep
• Transition hazards stmp2
• Probability of being in each state as a function
of time stmp2illd
Unidirectional illness-death model
Alive and well
Transition 2
Ill
State 1
α12 (t)
State 2
Transition 1
α13 (t)
α24 (t)
Transition 3
Dead
Dead
State 3
State 4
T denotes the time of reaching state j from state i and
the hazard rate of the i
j transition is given by: