Transcript NCA GROCERY MARKET VIEW DATA TO 03TH OCT 2010

A Summary Update of the Irish
Grocery Market to 3rd October
2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Grocery Performance Summary
– The total grocery market continues to come out of decline with value growth for the
latest 12 weeks now at 1.2%. With the number of sub-markets in growth steadily
increasing, overall market recovery is becoming more evident.
– Shopper spend is not rising in line with inflation in the latest period. Value growth
remains flat over the latest month.
– Frozen food is driving the volume (pack) growth while the value growth is driven by
the household sector.
2
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING?
52 & 12 WEEKS ENDING
ROI GROCERY MARKET COMES OUT OF DECLINE ON A 12 WEEK BASIS
9,367,539
9,263,439
-1.1%
8,850,175
-4.5%
2,107,577
1,998,193
-5.2%
52 w/e 05
Oct 08
52 w/e 04
Oct 09
52 we €000’s
52 w/e 03
Oct 10
12 w/e 05
Oct 08
12 w/e 04
Oct 09
2,022,918
1.2%
12 w/e 03
Oct 10
12 we €000’s
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING (PACKS)?
52 & 12 WEEKS ENDING 03th OCT 2010 – VOLUME GROWTH
4,889,141
5,160,083
+5.5%
5,168,763
+0.2%
1,134,797
1,155,382
+1.8%
52 w/e 05
Oct 08
52 w/e 04
Oct 09
52 we €000’s
52 w/e 03
Oct 10
12 w/e 05
Oct 08
12 w/e 04
Oct 09
1,173,462
1.6%
12 w/e 03
Oct 10
12 we €000’s
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING? 4 W/E
4 we €000’s
705,340
674,950
660,949
-6.3%
+2.1%
4 w/e 05 OCT 08
4 w/e 04 OCT 09
4 w/e 03 OCT 10
© Kantar Worldpanel
4 W/E VALUE GROWTH OF 2.1% AS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET
COMES OUT OF DECLINE OVER SHORTHER PERIODS
% Value Growth in Total Grocery
4
2.1
2
2.1
1.2
0
0.1
-0.5
-1.2
-1.8
-2
-3.6
-4
-5.2
-6
-4.9
-5.5
-6.3
-5.6
-6.3
-7.6
-8
-6.8
-7.5
-6.4
-6.9
-7.8
-7.6
-7.5
-7.6
-6.9
-3.5
-5.2
-6.5
12 w/e % chg
4 w/e % chg
-8.4
-10
12
w/e
04
Oct
09
12
w/e
01
Nov
09
12
w/e
29
Nov
09
12
w/e
27
Dec
09
12
w/e
24
Jan
10
12
w/e
21
Feb
10
12
w/e
21
Mar
10
12
w/e
18
Apr
10
12
w/e
16
May
10
12
12
12
w/e w/e w/e
13 11 Jul 08
Jun
10 Aug
10
10
12
w/e
05
Sep
10
12
w/e
03
Oct
10
6
© Kantar Worldpanel
WHICH SECTOR IS DRIVING MARKET GROWTH?
12 W/E – ALCOHOL IS THE ONLY MARKET STILL IN DECLINE ON A 12 W/E
BASIS WITH HOUSEHOLD DRIVING THE VALUE GROWTH
Value share
4.9
Value change
5
1.7
Frozen Food
1.2
Fresh & Chilled Food
48.3
48.2
2.6
Ambient Food
1.7
Toiletries
26.1
26.5
4.3
7.0
1.3
8.0
4.3
7.2
1.3
7.5
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
4.0
Household & Petcare
2.0
Healthcare
Alcohol
Total Grocery
-6.0
1.2
© Kantar Worldpanel
WHICH SECTOR IS DRIVING MARKET PACK GROWTH?
12 W/E 03 OCT 10 – FROZEN FOOD DRIVING VOLUME GROWTH FOR THE
TOTAL GROCERY MARKET
Volume share (Pack)
3.6
Volume (Pack) change
3.7
4.4
Frozen Food
2.5
Fresh & Chilled Food
54.9
28.7
55.4
27.9
2.7
7.1
0.5
2.5
2.7
7.2
0.5
2.5
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
-0.9
Ambient Food
Toiletries
2.5
Household & Petcare
2.6
Healthcare
Alcohol
Total Grocery
-4.4
3.1
1.6
© Kantar Worldpanel
17.6
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
18
12 w/e 05 Sep 10
18.1 18.3 18.3 18.1 17.9
12 w/e 08 Aug 10
12 w/e 11 Jul 10
12 w/e 13 Jun 10
12 w/e 16 May 10
12 w/e 18 Apr 10
18.4
12 w/e 21 Mar 10
12 w/e 21 Feb 10
19.7 19.5
12 w/e 24 Jan 10
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
19.0 19.1
12 w/e 29 Nov 09
12 w/e 01 Nov 09
18.5
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
19.1 19.0
12 w/e 06 Sep 09
12 w/e 09 Aug 09
19.5
12 w/e 12 Jul 09
20.2 20.0
12 w/e 14 Jun 09
22
12 w/e 17 May 09
19.7 19.5 19.8
12 w/e 19 Apr 09
12 w/e 22 Mar 09
12 w/e 22 Feb 09
20.3 20.3 20.1
12 w/e 25 Jan 09
12 w/e 28 Dec 08
12 w/e 30 Nov 08
19.5
12 w/e 02 Nov 08
20
12 w/e 05 Oct 08
PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITY LEVELS OFF AT 17% OF ALL GROCERY SALES GOING
THROUGH ON DEAL. THE LOWEST PROMOTIONAL LEVELS IN TWO YEARS HELPS
TO DRIVE THE VALUE GROWTH WITHIN THE MARKET
% Sold on Deal in Total Grocery, €
Value Sales
19.1
17.0 17.0
16
14
12
10
© Kantar Worldpanel
9
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
14.5
12 w/e 05 Sep 10
16.0 15.9 15.7
15.5 15.2 15.6 15.5 15.5
15.0
12 w/e 08 Aug 10
12 w/e 11 Jul 10
12 w/e 13 Jun 10
12 w/e 16 May 10
12 w/e 18 Apr 10
12 w/e 21 Mar 10
12 w/e 21 Feb 10
12 w/e 24 Jan 10
15.3 15.6
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
16.2
12 w/e 29 Nov 09
14.8
12 w/e 01 Nov 09
15.6
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
12 w/e 06 Sep 09
12 w/e 09 Aug 09
17.2 17.2 17.0
16.7
12 w/e 12 Jul 09
12 w/e 14 Jun 09
12 w/e 17 May 09
12 w/e 19 Apr 09
16
15.7
16.3
12 w/e 22 Mar 09
16.2
12 w/e 22 Feb 09
15.9
12 w/e 25 Jan 09
16.6
12 w/e 28 Dec 08
17.2
12 w/e 30 Nov 08
18
12 w/e 02 Nov 08
12 w/e 05 Oct 08
% PACK SALES SOLD ON DEAL
% Sold on Deal in Total Grocery,
22
20
14.0 13.9
14
12
10
© Kantar Worldpanel
10
HOW HAVE THE PROMOTIONAL MECHANICS CHANGED?
MONEY OFF IS THE MOST POPULAR PROMOTION MECHANIC BUT THE TOTAL ON OFFER DECLINES
THIS YEAR
8.1
8.4
% volume on deal type
6.9
6.4
7.8
6.1
0.9
Volume mechanics
52 w/e 05 Oct 08
Money Off
52 w/e 04 Oct 09
1
1
Other Offer
52 w/e 03 Oct 10
© Kantar Worldpanel
PRIVATE LABEL
The average shopper spent €1,827 on Private Label
products this year
Private Label products featured in 66% of all shopping
trips
In the latest year Private Label products were worth a
total of €2,9bn
There are currently 30,730 Private Label SKUs in the
ROI market, +27% more than in 2008
52 w/e 05 Sep10
© Kantar Worldpanel
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
12 w/e 05 Sep 10
12 w/e 08 Aug 10
12 w/e 11 Jul 10
12 w/e 13 Jun 10
12 w/e 16 May 10
12 w/e 18 Apr 10
12 w/e 21 Mar 10
12 w/e 21 Feb 10
12 w/e 24 Jan 10
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
12 w/e 29 Nov 09
12 w/e 01 Nov 09
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
12 w/e 06 Sep 09
12 w/e 09 Aug 09
12 w/e 12 Jul 09
12 w/e 14 Jun 09
12 w/e 17 May 09
12 w/e 19 Apr 09
12 w/e 22 Mar 09
12 w/e 22 Feb 09
12 w/e 25 Jan 09
12 w/e 28 Dec 08
12 w/e 30 Nov 08
12 w/e 02 Nov 08
12 w/e 05 Oct 08
32
34.3
33
32.9
34.5
34.9
35.1
35
34.2
34.2
32.8 34
32.9
32.9
33
32.9
33.2
33.5 34.7
34.2
32.6
34
34.2
34.3
32.9
32.4
34.5
33.1
34.8
34.7
33
33.3
34.5
33.8
33.5
32.8
32.4
32.2
32.2 33.2
32.333.1
33.1
31.1
34.1
33.8
33.5
33.3
32.6
30.9
30.4
31
30.9
30.8
Private label has stabilised at a third of the market share
Private Label Share of Grocery
% Value share
% Packs share
© Kantar Worldpanel
13
PRIVATE LABEL HAS GROWN SHARE STEADILY OVER THE LAST 10
YEARS
GB Equivalent
46.4%
46.8%
46.3%
46.5%
PL Levelling off?
22.2
16.2
17.5
2001
2002
2003
25.6
2004
28.2
29.3
29.9
30.7
2005
2006
2007
2008
32.6
32.8
2009
52 w/e 05
Sep 10
Private Label Share of Spend
© Kantar Worldpanel
Total Grocery– Key Dynamics to 03 October 2010
Buy less?
Contributions to Change %
less
frequently?
2.7
Pay less?
fewer
categories?
reduced
quantity?
different
retailer?
more
promotions?
cheaper
products?
2.4
0.2
Inflation
Volume per HH
Store Choice
2.1
2.0
Promotion/ Product Change
Spend Per HH
15
© Kantar Worldpanel
% Markets in Growth vs Decline
% Markets in Growth
% Markets in Decline
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
16
© Kantar Worldpanel
Number of Markets in each Inflation Band
We now have more categories with prices going up
80 Categories With
Deflation
69
205 Categories With Inflation
70
62
54
19
11
-5+
0 to -5
0 to +2.5
2.5 to 5
+5 to +10
10+
Inflation Bands
05 September 2010
17
© Kantar Worldpanel
Total Grocery evolution – Inflation and shopper reaction
Although inflation continues to rise, shopper spend remains flat. Household
spending is not in line with rising inflation.
12 w/e 03 Oct 2010
18
© Kantar Worldpanel
So what is the effect on shopper behaviour?
No of Trips per Household
58.2
Average Spend per Household
56.8
€1,265
€1,239
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
Spend per Trip
€21.70
€21.80
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
People aren’t shopping around
as much this quarter and spend
less vs. this time last year.
19
© Kantar Worldpanel
2008
Shop 241 Times
2010
+4%
Shop 250 Times
Within 6.5 Different Stores
+7%
Within 7 Different Stores
Full Store Trolley Missions
-9%
Top Up Baskets
Spend €25.6 Each Time
-13%
Spend €22.3 Each Time
Adding to €6,172 on Groceries
-10%
Adding to €5,572 on Groceries
12 w/e 25 Jan 09
39
35
40 38
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
39
12 w/e 05 Sept 10
43
12 w/e 11 July 10
12 w/e 8 Aug 10
12 w/e 13 June 10
36
12 w/e 16 May 10
42
12 w/e 18 April 10
31
12 w/e 21 Feb 10
43
12 w/e 21 Mar 10
27 28
12 w/e 25 Jan 10
30
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
33
12 w/e 01 Nov 09
12 w/e 29 Nov 09
28
25 26 25 24 26 27
12 w/e 4 Oct 09
12 w/e 6 Sep 09
12 w/e 09 Aug 09
12 w/e 12 Jul 09
12 w/e 14 Jun 09
12 w/e 17 May 09
28
12 w/e 19 Apr 09
26
12 w/e 22 Feb 09
12 w/e 22 Mar 09
37 36 35
33 31
30
12 w/e 28 Dec 08
12 w/e 30 Nov 08
12 w/e 02 Nov 08
12 w/e 05 Oct 08
12 w/e 07 Sep 08
12 w/e 10 Aug 08
40 42
12 w/e 15 Jun 08
12 w/e 13 Jun 08
12 w/e 18 May 08
47
12 w/e 20 Apr 08
43
12 w/e Mar 08
12 w/e 24 Feb 08
The number of markets where shoppers are choosing more expensive or nonpromoted products has dropped slightly this quarter.
% of markets where shoppers are trading up
47
© Kantar Worldpanel
21
Total Grocery Packs Growth by Price Brand
Consumers continue to opt for lower priced products
Growth in RST sales (Packs)
Change in sales
Share of sales
12 w/e 03 Oct 2010
22
© Kantar Worldpanel
ALCOHOL IS THE ONLY MARKET STILL IN DECLINE OVER ALL
PERIODS. TOILETRIES AND AMBIENT FOOD ARE SHOWING
STRONG GROWTH IN THE LATEST 4WEEKS
% Value Change
2
1.2 2.1
5.7
4
2.6
1.7
1.7
-1.8
-4.5
-4.0
-5.3 -6
4
-2.8
-5.7
1.2 2
-4.6
1.7 1.1
-5.8
-7.9
Total
Grocery
Alcohol
Healthcare Household
& Petcare
52 w/e Change
Toiletries
12 w/e Change
Ambient
Food
Fresh &
Chilled
Food
Frozen
Food
4 w/e Change
23
© Kantar Worldpanel
DISCOUNTER OVERVIEW - SUMMARY
– Discounters continue to grow. In the last ten years they have managed acquire 9.6% of value
share, and 13.4% of volume.
– Discounters have attracted 1,351,185 households over the last year
– Footfall for the discounters is increasing by over 400 visits per week. Consumers are
becoming more loyal and return to the discounters every ten days.
– Average basket size is €19.00, dropping slightly this period.
– Yearly growth for the discounters is driven by Alcohol and fresh and chilled.
Discounters continue growth
through store openings.
Combined, Aldi and Lidl
currently have 195 stores
© Kantar Worldpanel
Brief Overview of
UK Market
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Grocery evolution – Inflation and shopper reaction
We are seeing inflation rate above average household spend for the first time this
year
10
Inflation
HH Spend change
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1011
1010
1009
1008
1007
1006
1005
1004
1003
1002
1001
913
912
911
910
909
908
907
906
905
904
903
902
901
813
812
811
810
809
808
808
807
806
805
804
12 w/e 03 Oct 2010
26
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Total Grocery Packs Growth by Price Brand
Premium products are driving growth in the UK
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
Change in sales
Share of sales
4.7
5
9
4
12
3
2.3
2
1.6
1.5
34
Super
Premium
Premium
1.1
Good
1
21
0
Standard
-0.3
-1
All
Budget
Purchasing (Median 75%)
Standard
(Median 25%)
Good
(Median
price)
Premium Super Prem
(Median
(Median
+25%)
+75%)
24
Budget
% Packs
12 w/e 03 Oct 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Grocery update to 03rd Oct 2010
–As expected, inflation has increased again to 3.0 and we can
expect this to continue until the end of the year.
–Average price per pack continues to rise with inflation.
–Majority of retailers are in growth.
–Promotional activity is the main factor used by households to
reduce their spending.
© Kantar Worldpanel