Transcript EDPAC 2005

Connectivity and Super Supply
Chains
AIAA Enterprise Chapter of Los Angeles
AIAA Western Office
Ken Dozier
Executive Director, WESRAC
10/17/2006
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
The Western Research
Application Center
http://ttc.usc.edu/
learningcenter/
presentations.asp
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
WIRED Project
Department of Labor Workforce Innovation in Regional
Economic Development initiative
"Innovation, education and entrepreneurship: those are the keys
that will open the door to challenging and rewarding jobs."
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, February 2, 2006
WESRAC is a funded-partner of WIRED
• Interface with industry/economic
development academia to
support/develop education/training
resources
• Create sustainable innovation
economic development model
• Identify candidate companies for
projects
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
The Future
“When the Rate of Change Outside
is Greater Than the Rate of
Change Inside, The End Is In
Sight”
Jack Welch, Former Chairmen General Electric
Source: John F. Welch, Jr. Chairman / CEO General Electric’s 2000 Annual Report
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Velocity
“ According to Silicon Valley
CEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech
items they manufacture today did not exist
10 months ago”
Source: Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency, South Bay
Economic Development Partnership, “South Bay of Los Angeles County Workforce Perspective", October 2001
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
What is Knowledge ?
Truth
Universal
Knowledge
Belief
Social
Personal
No Debate
Converge on debate
Diverge on debate
Effect
Cause
Cause
Source: “Ten Philosophical Mistakes”, Mortimer J. Adler 1985
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Technologies Change Fast
Bio-Tech
Info-Tech
Nano-Tech
Source: SRI International 2002
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Anchor and Adjust
“where ... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30
tons, computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh
- Popular Mechanics, 1949
only 1.5 tons”
“This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a
means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us”
- Western Union, Internal memo, 1876
“The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued
on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it” - New York Times, 1949
“I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996
catastrophically collapse ”
- Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”
- Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
Source: “The Future is Ours” Communication of the ACM, March 2001
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Global Competition
1. USA
2. Hong Kong
3. Singapore
4. Iceland
5. Canada
6. Finland
7. Denmark
8. Switzerland
9. Australia
10.Luxembourg
Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International 2005
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
6-D Dimensions of
Global Commerce
Decentralization
Denationalization
Despacialization
Disaggregation
Demassification
Disintermediation
Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild March 2000
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Make & Sell vs.
Sense & Respond
Source: Corporate Information Systems, Lynda Applegate, 1999
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Exponential Economy
An
increasing
attribute of
our
knowledge
age
Copyright SRI International 2002
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Computing Synergy
Possibility for
creating
N(2(N-1)-1)
value
0
2
9
28
Copyright SRI International 2002
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Media Bandwidth
10^12
120 Gbps 12X QDR InfiniBand
10^11
Async. Trans. Mode (ATM)
10^4
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
DV Video
MPEG Video
NTSC Video
Digital Music
VHS Video
10^5
File sharing
10^6
Gaming
10^7
Internet Access
10^8
Voice
Bandwidth Required
Bits/sec (bps)
10^9
HDTV Video
10Gig Ethernet
10^10
Gigabit Ethernet
IEEE 1394 / Firewire
LASER / Fast Ethernet
10BaseT/CAT 5 Ethernet
Microwave
G3 / Wireless LAN
DSL/ Cable
G2 Wireless
G1 Wireless
High Performance Grid
Computing
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
What’s up?
• The United States initially was the world
leader in broadband deployment.
• Now it has plunged to 19th place.
• While the United States is still first in
absolute number of broadband lines, its lead
will soon be overtaken by China.
Source: http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0601, January 2006
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
How Important is Broadband?
• The Brookings Institution estimated that
America’s broadband decline could lead to
a potential loss of $1 trillion in economic
productivity over the next decade, as well as
more than 1.2 million jobs that could be
created by better broadband.
Source: The Brookings Institute 2004
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Europe is getting it
• City of Amsterdam announced a project to deploy
FTTU throughout the city.
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=86384
• Paris, France, announced the goal of deploying
FTTU throughout “all of Paris.”
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=86547
• The City of Vienna, Austria, announced plans for a
citywide FTTU network that will provide residents
1 Gbps of symmetrical broadband capacity.
http://www.heise.de/english/newsticker/news/68912
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
How Important is Computing?
Walmart Perspective
• If you can understand your data, you can do
predictive analysis.
• It’s an advantage if suppliers can link into
Walmart’s systems and perform their own analyses
using Walmarts’s complex tables
- CTO Walmart (September 2006)
Source: HPC Wire, September 15th , 2006
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
How Important is Computing?
Pratt & Whitney Perspective
• Building models on the computer is faster and lowercost, and you can look at any level of detail.
• Digital models are the basis for innovation.
• Suppliers also do modeling and simulation to speed
development and reduce costs.
• We take a lot of time determining whether suppliers
can use these tools.
- Chief engineer for systems analysis & aerodynamics, Pratt & Whitney
(September 2006)
Source: HPC Wire, September 15th , 2006
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
How Important is Computing?
Competitiveness
Transformation
Challenge
Never
Ever
User
NICE:
Move Users
Forward
Number of Users
Number of Applications
National Innovation
Collaboration
Ecosystem
(NICE)
NICE:
Fill the
Expertise
Gap
Entry
Level
HPC
User
Experienced
HPC User
“Heroes”
0 12
4
6
4
Mid Range HPC User
“Missing Middle”
1,00
Nodes
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
0
World
Class
Computin
g
10,000
+ Source: USC ISI
Dynamic Systems
Common modes of behavior in dynamic systems
Source: System Dynamics, John Sterman, 2000
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Exponential Growth
• How thick do you think
a paper folded in-half
42 times would be?
• How thick would it be
after 100 folds?
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Exponential Growth
The Answers
• 42 folds = 440,000 Km (the
distance from the earth to the
moon.)
• 100 folds = 850 trillion times
the distance from the earth to
the sun!
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
The Beer Game
Steady
state at 4
cases per
week.
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Connectivity
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
The Beer Game - Not Sharing
The system
after only a
single
change
from 4 to 8
case.
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
The Beer Game - Sharing
Knowledge
sharing,
reduces the
damage of a
simple
change in
the system.
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Findings
• Disruptions move up and down the supply
chain. Creates a state of co-dependency.
• Knowledge sharing between members of
the supply chain tend to suppress the
damage created by unwanted oscillations.
• Grid computing can create a B2B trust
environment that creates super supply
chains.
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Contact Information
For more information, please write:
http://wesrac.usc.edu
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)