Transcript New Approaches to Measuring Emergent U.S. Demographic Trends

Data Collection and Analysis in the
U.S. Demographic System
John F. Long
www.usademography.com
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Dimensions of Data Collection
• Geography –
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Nation
State
County
City
Tract
Block
Housing unit
•Time Period –
•Decennial
•Annual
•Monthly
•Characteristics –
•Demographic
•Social
•Economic
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Dimensions of Data Collection
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Major Data Collection Systems
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2010 Census
Vital Event Registration
Administrative Data
American Community Survey (annual)
Monthly Labor Force Survey
Specialized Household Surveys
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Dimensions of Data Collection
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Data Collection Types
Data
Collection
2010 Census
Vital Events &
Administrative
Records.
Household
Surveys
American
Community
Survey
Geography Characteristics Time
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Dimensions of Data Collection
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2000 Decennial Census –
(geography by characteristics)
In Census 2000, the census used 2 forms
1.“short” form – asked for basic demographic and housing
information, such as age, sex, race, how many people lived in
the housing unit, and if the housing unit was owned or rented
by the resident
2.“long” form – collected the same information as the short form
but also collected more in-depth information such as income,
education, and language spoken at home
Only a small portion of the population, called a
sample, received the long form.
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2010 U.S. Decennial Census
(geography by selected characteristics)
• Design Features
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Basic Demographic Data Only
Hand-held GPS address canvassing
Mailed Census Forms
Non-response follow-up
• Functions
• Political Apportionment / Redistricting
• Fund Allocation and Policy Implementation
• Base for Estimates and Surveys
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2010 Census Timeline
Spring 2009: Census employees go door-to-door to update
address list nationwide.
February – March 2010: Census questionnaires are mailed or
delivered to households.
April 1, 2010: Census Day
April – July 2010: Census takers visit households that did not
return a questionnaire by mail.
December 2010: By law, Census Bureau delivers population
counts to President for apportionment.
March 2011: By law, Census Bureau completes delivery of
redistricting data to states.
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GPS Address Canvassing
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Mail-out Census Forms
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2010 Census Questionnaire
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7 Census Questions per person
-Name
-Sex
-Relationship
-Date of Birth
-Race
-Hispanic Ethnicity
-Housing Tenure
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Census 2010 Questions (part 1)
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Census 2010 Questions (part 2)
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Census 2010 Questions (part 3)
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Processing Forms
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Non-Response Follow-up
Personal Interview
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Vital Events and Administrative
Data --(geography by time)
Annual data on Births and Deaths for
Counties from Vital Events Registration
Annual data on migration from
administrative records
-tax returns
-immigration registration
-housing construction
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Household Surveys(characteristics by time)
National data on specific topics from
national household surveys
- monthly unemployment
- government program participation
- school enrollment
- etc.
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Increasing Rate of Change of
Social and Demographic Factors
• Small Area Data Previously Available
only Every 10 Years (census)
• National Survey provided data only at
the level of states or above
• American Community Survey will
provide more frequent data for small
areas
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American Community Survey(geography by characteristics by time)
• Based on Results of Latest Census
• Controlled to Annual Independent Estimates
• Provides Annual detailed Data for Demographic,
Social , and Economic Characteristics for large
areas
• Provides 5-year detailed data for the smallest
geographies
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2010 Census and
American Community Survey
• 2010 Census will focus on counting the U.S. population
• The sample data are now collected in the ACS
• Puerto Rico is the only U.S. territory where the ACS is
conducted
• 2010 Census will have a long form for U.S. territories
such as Guam and U.S. Virgin Islands
• Same “short form” questions on the ACS
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American Community Survey
Content
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American Community Survey
Social Characteristics
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Education
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Marital Status •
Fertility
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Grandparent
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Caregivers
• Veterans
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• Disability Status
Place of Birth
Citizenship
Year of Entry
Language Spoken
at Home
Ancestry / Tribal
Affiliation
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American Community Survey
Economic Characteristics
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Income
Benefits
Employment Status
Occupation
Industry
Commuting to Work
Place of Work
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American Community Survey
Housing Characteristics
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Tenure
Occupancy & Structure
Housing Value
Taxes & Insurance
Utilities
Mortgage/Monthly Rent
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American Community Survey
Demographic Characteristics
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Sex
Age
Race
Hispanic Origin
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American Community Survey
Methodology
• Sample includes about 3 million addresses each year
• Three modes of data collection
– mail
– phone
– personal visit
• Data are collected continuously throughout the year
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Telephone Non-Response Follow-up
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American Community Survey
Target Population
• Resident population of the United States and Puerto
Rico
– Living in housing units and group quarters
• Current residents at the selected address
– “Two month” rule
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American Community Survey
Group Quarters
• Place where people live or stay that is normally
owned or managed by an entity or organization
providing housing or services for the residents.
• 2 categories of group quarters:
– Institutional
– Non-institutional
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American Community Survey
Period Estimates
• ACS estimates are period estimates, describing the
average characteristics over a specified period
• Contrast with point-in-time estimates that describe
the characteristics of an area on a specific date
• 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year estimates will be released
for geographic areas that meet specific population
thresholds
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American Community Survey
Data Products Release Schedule
Data Product
Population Size
of Area
2007
1-Year Estimates
for Data Collected in:
65,000+
2006
3-Year Estimates
for Data Collected in:
20,000+
5-Year Estimates
for Data Collected in:
All Areas*
2008
Data released in:
2009
2010
2011
2007
2008
2009
2010
2007-2009
2008-2010
2005-2009
2006-2010
2005-2007 2006-2008
* Five-year estimates will be available for areas as small as census tracts and block groups.
Source: US Census Bureau
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American Community Survey
Similarities with Census 2000
• Same questions and many of the same basic
statistics
• 5-year estimates will be produced for same broad
set of geographic areas including census tracts and
block groups
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American Community Survey
Key Differences from Census 2000
• Beginning in 2010, data for small geographic areas
will be produced every year versus once every 10
years
• Data for large and mid-sized areas are available now
and data for small areas will be available in
December 2010
• Census 2000 data described the population and
housing as of April 1, 2000 while ACS data describe
a period of time and require data for 12 months, 36
months, or 60 months
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American Community Survey
Key Differences from Census 2000
• The goal of ACS is to produce data comparable to the
Census 2000 long form data
• These estimates will cover the same small areas as
Census 2000 but with smaller sample sizes
• Smaller sample sizes for 5-year ACS estimates results
in reductions in the reliability of estimates
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Data Analysis Issues
• Define Analytical/Policy Issue
• Choice of Data Collection Types
• Integrating Multiple Data Collection
Results: example of migration
• Emerging Issues in the U. S. and
Measurement Strategies
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Data Analysis from Different Data
Dimensions
Example: Migration Analysis
2000 Census data provided data for a 5year period
No migration data from 2010 Census
Alternatives –
- CPS data
- Administrative records
- American Community Survey
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Alternative Migration Data Sets
Previous Censuses – geography by characteristics
Administrative Records – geography by time
Household Surveys – characteristics by time
American Community Survey (ACS) – geography by
characteristics by time
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ACS Comparability Issues
-5-years of annual ACS data is not equivalent to a
migration period of 5-years (return and repeat
migration)
-Small geographic areas require use of multi-year
averages
-Sampling error can mask demographic change –
especially for net migration.
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Comparison of 1-year Migration and Mobility
Rates from the American Community Survey
and the March Current Population Survey:
2005, 2006, and 2007
Migration rates in percent
Total Movers
Intracounty Movers
Total Domestic Migrants
Intrastate Migrants
Interstate Migrants
International Migrants
Total, 1 and over (in 1,000's)
2005
ACS in HHs
16.1
9.9
5.6
3.1
2.5
0.6
284.4
CPS
13.9
7.9
5.3
2.7
2.6
0.6
ACS
16.8
9.9
6.9
3.6
2.7
0.6
287.1 295.3
2006
ACS in HHs
15.9
9.7
5.6
3.1
2.5
0.6
287.3
CPS ACS
13.7 15.9
8.6 9.4
4.7 6.5
2.8 3.4
2.0 2.5
0.4 0.6
2007
ACS in HHs
14.9
9.2
5.2
2.9
2.3
0.5
CPS
13.2
8.6
4.2
2.5
1.7
0.4
289.8 297.5
289.4
292.7
Conclusion: ACS rates are 10 to 20 % higher than CPS rates.
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Comparison of 1-year Net Migration from the 2007
American Community Survey and the 2007 Intercensal
Population Estimates: Selected Areas in Michigan
Geographic Area
Michigan
2007 Pop.
ACS (pop. 1 & over)
margin of error
Estimates (total pop.)
9,945.3
4.3
10,071.8
Detroit-Warren- ACS (pop. 1 & over)
Livonia,MSA
margin of error
Estimates (total pop.)
4,410.6
3,167.0
4,467.6
Wayne County
1,959.6
2.3
1,985.1
ACS (pop. 1 & over)
margin of error
Estimates (total pop.)
In Migration Out Migration Net Migration
(interstate migration)
131.3
209.8
-78.5
7.7
12.0
-94.4
(migration between counties)
160.6
228.6
-68.0
12.3
17.3
-58.1
(migration between counties)
50.8
96.8
-46.0
7.7
12.2
-40.8
Rate
-0.79%
-0.94%
-1.54%
-1.30%
-2.35%
-2.06%
Conclusion: ACS net migration numbers and rates are similar to intercensal estimates.
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Conclusion
---Multiple data collection methods in the U.S.
demographic system– particularly the new American
Community Survey – provide flexibility and new
insights to social and demographic change
---However, comparing results across systems requires
care and an understanding of methodological
differences.
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