Transcript Strategic Plan for Advanced Travel Modeling at CMAP

OVERVIEW OF
CMAP’S ADVANCED TRAVEL MODEL CADRE
Kermit Wies, Deputy Executive Director for Research and Analysis
AMPO Modeling Group, November 2010
Why Advance the CMAP Models?
O Answer modern urban planning questions
O How do people arrange their activities?
O What factors affect their choices?
O How sensitive are they to change?
O Keep our methods “state-of-the art”
O Advanced models underway at most large MPOs
O Take advantage of research partnerships
O Show off
Who is the “CMAP Modeling Cadre”?
O The (growing) team of advanced modeling experts that
contribute to CMAP’s advanced model system
O Original 5 members authored the “Strategic Plan for
Advanced Model Development”
O Two consultant contracts for Freight and Pricing have
been issued
O Federal research collaborations underway
CMAP’s Strategic Plan for
Advanced Model Development
O Introduction
O Model management principles
O Three Chapters
O Policy Response
O Data Development
O Computing Environment
O Two Appendices
O Behavioral model integration
O Demand/Supply model integration
CMAP’s Model Management Principles
O Ultimate Goal: Complete activity and travel
microsimulation
O Incremental coupling : agent-based demand
and supply
O Persistent attention to model integration
Model developers:
(the science)
CMAP’s Model Management Principles
O Ongoing activity and travel survey program
O Ongoing performance data acquisition
O Regional planning indicators
O Active planning priorities
the customer:
(the product)
CHAPTER 1: POLICY RESPONSE
O Two major sections:
O Policy analysis requirements
O Advanced models response capabilities
Policy Analysis Requirements
O Regional Comprehensive Plan (Go To 2040)
O Livable communities
O Regional mobility
O Human capital
O Efficient governance
O Transportation Investments and Strategies
O Air quality conformity
O Major capital projects
O Freight
Advanced models response capabilities
First Generation
Second Generation
Basic
computational
modules
Module
coupling and
integration
Population Synthesis
Zonal Detail
Network Detail
Long Term Choices
Activity-based Tours
Freight System
Network Assignment
Economy and Land Use
Any policy analysis requiring alternatives evaluation or forecasting should start here.
CHAPTER 2: DATA DEVELOPMENT
O Three major sections:
O Data required by advanced model features
O Suggested data resources
O Data development program
Data required by advanced model features
Survey Data
Spatial Data
Network Data
Internal personal travel
External travel
Visitor travel
Airport travel
Freight agents
Ongoing
survey
program
Coded
and
complete
Traffic microsimulation
Bike/Ped agents
Data development needed for an advanced model should start here.
Data Resource Requirements
O
Survey Data
O
O
O
O
Spatial Data
O
O
Base and projections for:
O population, housing, employment, school, parking, hotels, tourist
Network Data
O
O
O
Household and visitor diaries
External and airport intercepts
Business enterprises, commodity flows, intermodal
Full streets for GIS interpretation
Coded for static and dynamic assignment :
O Highway, transit, bicycle, pedestrian, freight
Traffic and ridership data
O
counts, speed, travel time, queues for validating:
O autos, trucks, transit, pedestrian, bicycles, external, intermodal
Data Development Program
O Internal ongoing survey work program
O Freight business models
O Census
O Purchase commercial datasets
O Data exchange with managers and operators
CHAPTER 3: COMPUTING ENVIRONMENT
O Algorithms, calculations and procedures
O Effective software and hardware solutions
Algorithms, calculations and procedures
O Calculating activity patterns
O Computationally efficient
O Individual decision making and interactions
O Continuous variation in coefficients
O Tour-based travel modeling
O Bi-directional variation
O Spatial chaining behavior
O Challenges remain
O Practical logsum computation
O Continuous network level-of-service and equilibrium
Effective Software and Hardware Solutions
O Examples of:
O Common modeling framework
O General software architecture
O CPU distribution and threading
O Hardware configurations
O Staffing and qualifications
TWO APPENDICES ON MODEL INTEGRATION
O “Intra” Activity-based model integration
O Focuses on problem of modeling
simultaneous or sequence-independent
choices within different AB frameworks
O “Inter” demand – supply model integration
O Focuses on problem of exchange of valid
level-of-service and activity-based information
between demand and supply frameworks.