Transcript Diapositiva 1 - Energy Delphos

February 2012
Cycles
&
Trends
An Overview to Energy Sector in
Mexico
2011-2012
Index
Chapter II
Energy Sector
•
•
•
•
•
•
Oil & natural gas reserves
Production
Exports
Scenarios
Investments
Pemex strategies
Chapter II
Energy Sector
Oil & Natural Gas Reserves
At January 1st, 2011, hydrocarbon proven reserves are 13,796 billion barrels of
crude oil, 74% corresponds to crude oil; 9% to condensates and plant liquids, and
the rest, 17% , to dry gas.
Reserves at January 1st , 2011
(Billion boe)
50
14.3
45
43.1
40
35
15
30
28.8
25
20
15
13.8
10
5
0
Proven
Probable
2P
Possible
3P
Oil & Natural Gas Reserves
R
Reserves Evolution
Hydrocarbon reserves evolution
(Billion barrels)
70
60
58.2
56.2
Possible
Probable
Proven
53.0
50.0
50
25.1
23.5
40
21.9
20.1
48.0
46.9
46.4
45.4
44.5
43.6
43.1
43.1
18.9
17.6
16.5
15.5
14.7
14.3
14
13.8
30
20
21.2
21.3
20.8
17
16
15.8
15.8
15.3
15.1
14.5
14.2
15
12
11.3
10.3
13
13.1
13.4
14.2
14.6
14.6
14.7
14.8
14.3
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
10
0
Oil & Natural Gas Reserves
From 2010 to 2011, crude oil reserves 3P increased by 62 MMboe, mainly due
incorporation of 878 MMboe exploratory crude oil. Proven reserves decreased by
259 MMboe as result of production of 940 MMboe in 2010.
Evolution of crude oil reserves
(Billions of barrels)
Possible
Probable
Proven
35
30.9
30.5
30.6
10.4
10.4
10.2
10.4
10
10.7
10.1
10.1
9.7
2009
2010
2011
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oil & Natural gas reserves
From 2010 to 2011 3P reserves of natural gas increased in 39 Billion cubic feet,
due mainly discoveries of 2,724 billion cubic feet of gas. In this way, it was
possible to offset a significant production volume of 2,562 billion cubic feet that
were extracted during 2010.
Natural Gas Reserves Evolution
(Billion cubic feet)
Possible
Probable
Proven
70
60.4
61.2
61.3
17.6
16.8
17.3
20.1
20.7
20.9
22.6
23.7
23
2009
2010
2011
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Oil & Natural Gas Reserves
Between 2007-2010 exploratory activities have allowed incorporate sustained
volumes annually of reserves up to 1,000 MMboe, this situation has made
possible fulfill commitments of incorporate reserves by exploration .
Evolution of hydrocarbon discoveries
(MMboe)
2000
1800
1,773.9
Possible
Probable
1600
Proven
1,482.1
388.9
1,437.8
1400
230.8
363.8
1200
966.1
1000
800
600
1,053.2
490.3
312.1
182.8
182.9
229.1
548.6
492.6
400
200
894.8
894.8
2010
2011
569.7
554.1
377.8
0
2007
2008
2009
Oil & Natural Gas Reserves
Recovery rate of proven reserves will reach a value of 100% in 2012, due
reclassification of probable reserves to proven reserves, these will come from the
development of projects such as Ku-Maloob Zaap, Crudo Ligero Marino, BellotaChinchorro and Chicontepec, among others.
Evolution of recovery rate of proven reserves
(%)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
25.5
22.7
26.4
41
50.3
71.8
77.1
85.8
100
Production
In Mexico, oil production has decreased since 2005. Main reason is declining of
Cantarell Asset. This field had its maximum production in 2004 and then began a
descendant trend in a constant way.
Crude Oil Production in Mexico, 1900-2025 (Thousands
of barrels per year)
Production
In 2011 Pemex achieved to consolidate stability in crude oil production. Pemex
modified descendant trend during period 2007-2009, when registered an
accumulative total declining of 475,000 barrels daily.
Crude Oil Production by type 2002-2011
(Thousand barrels per day)
Heavy
4,000.0
3,500.0
3,177
3,370
3,382
Light
3,333
Ultra light
3,255
3,075
2,791
3,000.0
2,601
2,576
2,550
2,500.0
2,000.0
1,500.0
1,000.0
500.0
0.0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ultra light
156.9
134.8
135.3
144.1
180.4
198.6
210.4
269.7
320.0
336.0
Light
846.6
810.7
789.6
802.3
831.5
837.7
815.5
811.8
834.4
794.0
2,173.7
2,425.4
2,458.0
2,387.0
2,243.8
2,039.4
1,765.6
1,529.0
1,422.0
1,419.0
Heavy
Production
Reversing decline in oil production in recent years was possible primarily by
increasing production in Ku-Maloob Zaap, Litoral Tabasco, Crudo Ligero Marino
and Ixtal-Manik projects. They have partially compensated decline in Cantarell.
Oil Production of the three main Assets
(MMboe)
2,500.0
2,000.0
1,500.0
Cantarell
1,000.0
500.0
Ku-Maloob-Zaap
Litoral Tabasco
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Production
Last year Pemex Exploration & Production showed a contraction in extraction of
natural gas associated and non-associated, due the declining production in the
main regions: Marine, South and North.
Natural Gas Production by type, 2002-2011
(MMcfd)
8,000.0
7,000.0
6,000.0
5,000.0
Gas non
associated
4,000.0
3,000.0
Gas associated
(include nitrogen)
2,000.0
1,000.0
0.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Gas non associated
1,271.7
1,305.4
1,379.2
1,563.3
1,863.9
2,266.1
2,613.0
2,598.8
2,550.3
2,477.5
2,205.0
Gas associated
3,239.0
3,118.1
3,119.2
3,009.6
2,954.1
3,090.0
3,445.4
4,319.8
4,480.3
4,542.5
4,390.0
Exports
On 2011, Pemex achieved a stable crude oil export platform. Lower international
sales during 2008 and 2009 are explained by the global economic slowdown that
led to a reduced demand of energy.
Exports volume crude oil
(Thousand barrels daily)
2,000.0
1,800.0
1,843
1,705
1,870 1,817
1,755
Istmo
Olmeca
Maya
1,792
1,686
1,755
1,600.0
1,361
1,403
1,400.0
1,338
1,222
1,200.0
1,000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Exports
Pemex achieved a significant increase of 37.4% in revenues from foreign sales of
crude oil during last year, this due the high price (101 dollars per barrel) registered
by Mexican oil in the international market.
Value of Crude Oil Exports
(Million dollars)
49,322.0
50,000.0
43,341.5
45,000.0
37,937.5
40,000.0
35,985.0
34,706.8
35,000.0
28,329.4
30,000.0
25,605.4
25,000.0
20,000.0
21,257.9
16,676.3
14,552.9
13,392.2
11,927.7
15,000.0
10,000.0
5,000.0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Exports
Pemex registered a surplus of 24,996 million dollars (MMUSD) in its trade
balance of crude oil, petroleum products, petrochemicals and natural gas on 2011.
This represent an increase of 28% compared with previous year.
Pemex Annual Trade Balance
(million dollars)
60,000
Exports
Imports
Balance
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Scenario 2012
This year Pemex will continue with its optimization program in all its processes
and associated services in order to strengthen areas that create value to the
company, identifying those areas that require new strategies to perform efficiently
its activities.
Pemex Strategy for 2012
(Main goals)
6,165.7 MMpcd
2,559.9 Mbd
1,331.3 Mbd
1,175.7 Mbd
1071.4 MMpcd
445.1 Mbd
Crude Oil
production
Domestic
Market
International
Market
Petroleum
Products imports
Natural Gas
production
Dry gas
imports
Scenario 2012
Major resources for investment expenditure segment allow fulfill with maintenance
and infrastructure development programs, in order to continue with modernization
of the company, while reduction in current expenditure indicates a minor
bureaucracy in Pemex operation.
Pemex Budget by Economic Classification, 2012
(pesos & percentage structure)
141,230,386,919,
32%
301,255,000,000,
68%
Scenario 2012
Current Expenditure Budget
Current Expenditure Budget, 2012
70,000,000,000
(Pesos)
60,059,251,227
60,000,000,000
50,000,000,000
40,213,237,592
40,000,000,000
32,856,898,871
30,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
7,328,309,969
772,689,260
0
Public Services
Public Goods
Budget support
& improving efficiency
Support public function
& management
improvement
Pensions &
retirements
50,000,000,000
0
Breakdown
3,193,598,577
investments
Other
1,846,916,460
Acquisition
785,996,808
Programs
Pre-investment
studies
17,407,323,789
3,658,787,248
16,087,135
100,000,000,000
Infrastructure
maintenance
Other projects
Estate
Social
213,527,446
Infrastructure
274,132,762,537
300,000,000,000
economic
infrastructure
Hydrocarbons
301,255,000,000
350,000,000,000
Investment
Expenditure
Scenario 2012
Investment Expenditure Budget
Pemex Investment Expenditure Budget, 2012
(Pesos)
250,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
150,000,000,000
Scenario 2012
Total annual expenditure programmed for Pemex in 2012 amounts to 442,485.4 million
pesos, while non-programmed is 34,839.6 million pesos. Pemex Exploration &
Production receives 291,075.5 million pesos from programmed expenditure and
34,475.5 million pesos from non-programmed. PEP becomes subsidiary that receives
more resources..
350,000
300,000
Total programmed expenditure, investment expenditure by subsidiary
(Million pesos & percentage)
REF
19.8%
291,075
250,000
PEP
65.8%
200,000
PGPB
4.0%
150,000
PP
3.7%
87,694
100,000
Corporativo
6.6%
50,000
17,835
16,538
PGPB
PP
29,346
0
PEP
REF
Corporativo
Scenario 2012
Strategic Objectives
Based on Business Plan 2012-2016, Pemex Exploration & Production update its
strategic objectives for this period as follows:
 Maintain an average of oil production between 2.6 to 2.9 MMbd
 Maintain an average of gas production between 5.8 to 6.1 MMMcfd
 Replace 100% of proven reserves
 Maintain production costs in the first quartile and optimize discovery and
development costs in order to reach first quartile
 Achieve the goal of zero accidents
 To be considered as a socially responsible company
Scenario 2012
Investment Programs & Projects
PEP, Investment Programs and Projects, 2011-2012
(Thousand Million pesos)
60
52.8
50
49.5
45.8
43.4
39.3
40
2011
2012
30.7
30
20.6
20.7
18.3
20
18.1
12.7 13.5
10
6.5
5.6
0
Cantarell
Gas
Strategic
Program
Ku-MaloobZaap
ATG
Burgos
Antonio J.
Bermúdez
Complex
JujoTecominoacán
Scenario 2012
Investment Programs & Projects
PEP, Investment Programs & Projects, 2011-2012
(Thousand million pesos)
8.0
7
7.0
6.6
6.1
6.1
5.8
6.0
2010
2011
5.4
4.8
5.0
4.9
4.5
4.2
4.0
3.2
3.0
2.8
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.0
1.0
0.0
Chuc
Delta del
Grijalva
Yaxche
Caan
BellotaChinchorro
Poza Rica
Arenque
El GolpePuerto Ceiba
Scenario 2012
Investment Programs & Projects
PEP, Investment Program & Projects, 2011-2012
(Thousand million pesos)
4.0
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.0
2.5
2011
2012
2.4
2.3
2.1
1.9
2.0
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.0
Ek-Balam
TamaulipasConstituciones
Cactus SitioGrande
Och-Uech-Kax
Ayin-Alux
Carmito-Artesa
Cárdenas
Lakach
Investments
During current administration, investment budget has increased 100%. In 2011,
Cantarell projects, Gas strategic program, Ku-Maloob-Zaap, Aceite Terciario del
Golfo, Burgos and Antonio J. Bermúdez exert most of total investment.
Pemex Investments
(Billion pesos)
350,000
350,000
286,338
300,000
268,599
251,882
250,000
198,247
200,000
164,629
143,600
150,000
116,757
122,161
94,123
100,000
65,525
67,471
67,657
50,000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Investments
Long-term investments of Pemex Exploration & Production are focus on maintain
crude oil production above 2.5 MMbd, gas extraction above 6,100 MMcfd, and
reserve replacement rate exceeding 100%.
Exploration & Production Esteemed Investments
(Billion dollars)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Exploration
3
3
3
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
Production
17
18
19
18
19
18
18
18
17
18
17
17
17
17
18
Investments
On Business Plan 2012-2016, Pemex forecast a growth rate of 2% regarding
crude oil production during period 2012-2016, projection includes implementation
of integral contracts for exploration & production.
Crude Oil Production, 2012-2016
(Thousand barrels per day)
2,821
2,850
2,800
2,731
2,750
2,675
2,700
2,628
2,650
2,606
2,600
2,550
2,500
2,450
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Scenario 2011-2016
For period 2012-2016, oil exports will maintain stability, growth rate for reference
period is of 1%, coupled with high prices projected, will maintain high income
rates in the country.
Crude Oil Exports, 2012-2016
(Thousand barrels daily)
1,314
1,320
1,300
1,271
1,280
1,252
1,260
1,260
1,240
1,221
1,220
1,200
1,180
1,160
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Scenario 2012-2035
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reviewed oil production projections in
Mexico according different scenarios; in referent scenario for 2011 forecast a
decline annual rate of -2.4% for period 2008-2035, projection for 2010 rate was of
-2.9% between 2007-2035.
Mexico: liquid hydrocarbons production scenarios
(million barrels daily)
4.5
Esteemed
Historic
3.6
2.7
Reference
High oil prices
Low oil prices
1.8
High economic growth
Low economic growth
0.9
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Reference
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.3
1.8
1.4
1.5
1.7
High oil prices
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.3
1.7
1.4
1.6
1.8
Low oil prices
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.4
1.8
1.5
1.6
1.7
High economic growth
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.4
1.8
1.4
1.5
1.7
Low economic growth
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.3
1.8
1.5
1.6
1.8
Strategies
Pemex has outlined the following objectives & strategies
Main initiatives by subsidiaries
Exploration &
Production
Refining
Gas & PQB
Petrochemical
•Increase incorporation of reserves
•Maintain production platform (Cantarell)
•Development of complex fields in an efficient way (ATG,AP)
•Reactivate marginal fields – Incentivated Contracts
•Increase and maintain use of gas
•Increase reliability and profitability of the National Refining System
•Deep conversion projects
•Meet gas & diesel standards
•Increase import capacity and strengthen storage & distribution
capacities
Increase process and transport capacity, according with growth in
primary production and demand
•Increase efficiency of profitable chains
•Stimulate participation of private sector in new projects development
Strategies
Bajo control de Pemex
Cross-cutting initiatives
Security
•Consolidation and continuous improvement of SSPA
• Sustainability and Environment Protection
Reliability
•Operational Reliability
•Control of fuels illicit market
Profitability
and efficiency
•Best practices in Projects development
•Integral Business Model of supplies
•Human Resources Strategy
Sustainability
•Strategic Technological Program
•Suppliers Development
•Management Processes System
Strategies
Prioritized initiatives: importance vs. progress
Main initiatives
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
New. Tula Refinery
Salamanca
Fuels quality
Petroleum logistic
Alliances
Human resources
Operative reliability
Illicit market
•
•
•
•
Environmental Protection
Energy reform
Corporate governance
Structural issues:
– Fiscal regime
– Labor
a
liabilities
– Subsidies
– Citizen bonds emission
– Debt structure diversification
High
Importance
• Chicontepec
• Deep waters
• Minatilán
Security
Oil production
Operative
reliability
Human
resources
Environmental
r
Protection
Gas
production
New
Refinery
Fuels quality
Structural issues
Reserves
Logistic
Deep waters
Use of gas
Minatitlán
Chicontepec
Alliances
Salamanca
Energy
Illicit market reform
2008
Corporate Governance
Medium
• Reserves
• Crude oil production
• Gas Production
-
Advance
Líneas de negocios
Transversales
+
Estructurales
Strategies
Develop complex fields and reactivate marginal fields
n In
short-term, Pemex must use different schemes in order to develop internal capacities in
substantive areas
n New schemes proposed are: Integral contracts (IC) Integral field laboratories
(IL) Transactional contracts (TC)
Internal capacity
Low
Complexity
High
Medium
Low
Deep waters
Medium
High
IC
IC
IL
IC
IL
TC
IC
IL
IC
IL
TC
TC
IC
IL
TC
TC
TC
Chicon tepec
Matures fields
Internal capacity :
• Human resources
• Technology
• Process
Complexity:
• Scale
• Technological challenges
• Market service
(Reactivation)
Strategies
Reactivate marginal fields: Incentivated Contracts
6 fields grouped in 3 blocks
Reserves 3P of 195 MMboe; Average surface: 312 km2.
First
round
Reserves 3P
(MMboe)
1,465
104
40
(2011):
Magallanes Santuario
Mature
Fields in
the South
Region
Original volume
(MMboe)
Current production
(bd)
51
461
Carrizo
Magallanes Santuario
Carrizo
Award: August18, 2011
Rates US$/b)
Santuario
Magallanes
Carrizo
Maximum
7.97
9.78
12.31
Winning bid
5.01
5.01
9.40
2011
Next
Bid
Calls
(2012)
321
I
Mature Fields
North
.
Region
Chicontepec
Deep Waters
II
III
IV
I
2012
II
III
IV
This report was prepared by:
Sergio Rivas F.
Office: +52 55 10 56 08 05
Mobile: +52 1 55 18 00 14 16
Mobile: +52 1 55 59 09 68 15
Please feel welcome to contact Sergio Rivas F.
(E-mail: [email protected]) for any
questions concerning this report.