Transcript Document

Real Estate Trends and Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Broker Summit
Atlanta, GA
August 7, 2014
GDP Rebound … 4% !!!
in 2014 Q2
GDP Annualized Growth Rate
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014
- Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1
-2
-4
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
But Still not Robust … Below 3%
GDP Annual Growth Rate
10
8
6
4
2
0
Sluggish Growth + Gap after Great Recession
($1.5 trillion gap … $4,700 per person)
GDP in 2009 Dollars
18000
3% Growth Line
17000
16000
15000
2.2% Growth Line
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
1998 - Q1
2000 - Q1
2002 - Q1
Real GDP
2004 - Q1
2006 - Q1
2008 - Q1
2010 - Q1
Real GDP W/O Recession
2012 - Q1
140000
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - May
2013 - Nov
2014 - May
GDP Growth = Job Creations
(8 million lost … 8+ million gained)
In thousands
138000
136000
134000
132000
130000
128000
126000
124000
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
2014 - Jan
Unemployment Rate
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
2014 - Jan
Employment Rate
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
Job Market Comparisons by State
Fast Growing
States
1-year Growth
Rate
Slow Moving
States
1-year Growth
Rate
North Dakota
4.5
Michigan
0.7
Nevada
3.7
Alabama
0.6
Texas
3.4
Wyoming
0.6
Florida
2.9
South Dakota
0.3
Utah
2.9
Virginia
0.3
Colorado
2.8
New Jersey
0.1
Oregon
2.7
Illinois
0.0
Delaware
2.6
Alaska
0.0
West Virginia
2.5
New Mexico
-0.1
California
2.2
Vermont
-0.2
480
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug
2001 - Mar
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2006 - Jun
2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jun
2014 - Jan
Jobs in North Dakota
In thousands
4150
2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug
2001 - Mar
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2006 - Jun
2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jun
2014 - Jan
Jobs in Georgia
4200
In thousands
4100
4050
4000
3950
3900
3850
3800
4100
2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug
2001 - Mar
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2006 - Jun
2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jun
2014 - Jan
Jobs in New Jersey
4150
In thousands
4050
4000
3950
3900
3850
3800
Existing Home Sales
20% cumulative increase over 2 years
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Monthly Pending Sales Index …
Hits Speed Bump
(Seasonally Adjusted)
115.0
110.0
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
80.0
75.0
70.0
Source: NAR
Two and Out?
Or Multi-year Expansion?
(Single-Family Existing Home Sales Only)
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 Q1
0
Causes of Recent Sales Slowdown
• Bad winter
– Only delayed sales not cancellation
• Home prices rose too fast in relation to income
– Showing signs of slowing
• Lack of inventory
– Steadily more inventory coming to market
• Mortgage rates jumped … then declined
– Trouble ?
• Mortgage credit difficulties
– New Qualified Mortgage Rules
– Surely cannot get worse!
Mismatch Growth
Home Price
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Household Income
19%
4%
2-year Growth
-5
-10
2014 - May
2014 - Mar
2014 - Jan
2013 - Nov
2013 - Sep
2013 - Jul
2013 - May
2013 - Mar
Case-Shiller
2013 - Jan
2012 - Nov
2012 - Sep
2012 - Jul
NAR
2012 - May
2012 - Mar
2012 - Jan
2011 - Nov
2011 - Sep
2011 - Jul
2011 - May
2011 - Mar
2011 - Jan
Change in Home Price
(% change from one year ago)
CoreLogic
15
10
5
0
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
2014 - Jan
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
and
1-year Adjustable Rate Mortgage
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2014 - Q1
2013 - Q1
2012 - Q1
2011 - Q1
2010 - Q1
2009 - Q1
2008 - Q1
2007 - Q1
2006 - Q1
2005 - Q1
2004 - Q1
2003 - Q1
2002 - Q1
2001 - Q1
2000 - Q1
1999 - Q1
1998 - Q1
1997 - Q1
1996 - Q1
1995 - Q1
Repeat Price Index
(Des Moines and Las Vegas )
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2007 - Jan
2007 - May
2007 - Sep
2008 - Jan
2008 - May
2008 - Sep
2009 - Jan
2009 - May
2009 - Sep
2010 - Jan
2010 - May
2010 - Sep
2011 - Jan
2011 - May
2011 - Sep
2012 - Jan
2012 - May
2012 - Sep
2013 - Jan
2013 - May
2013 - Sep
2014 - Jan
2014 - May
Inventory of Homes for Sale
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
Shadow Inventory
% of mortgages in foreclosure process or seriously delinquent
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
- Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1
Shadow Inventory – AZ and CA
% of mortgages in foreclosure process or seriously delinquent
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
- Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1
Shadow Inventory – NJ and NY
% of mortgages in foreclosure process or seriously delinquent
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
- Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1
Forecast #1:
Higher Inflation … Higher Interest Rates
• Federal Reserve “Quantitative Easing” finishes
by the year end 2014
• Fed Funds Rate … hike in 2015 Q1
• Earlier Move to Tighten because of Inflation
Pressure
• Long-term Steady State Rate (2016 onwards) ..
10 year Treasury at 5.0%
-1
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
2014 - Jan
Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth
(On the Way to 3%)
Owners' Equivalent Rent
Renters' Rent
5
4
3
2
1
0
2014 - Jun
2014 - Apr
2014 - Feb
2013 - Dec
2013 - Oct
2013 - Aug
2013 - Jun
2013 - Apr
2013 - Feb
2012 - Dec
Falling
2012 - Oct
2012 - Aug
2012 - Jun
2012 - Apr
2012 - Feb
2011 - Dec
2011 - Oct
2011 - Aug
2011 - Jun
2011 - Apr
2011 - Feb
2010 - Dec
REALTOR® Rent Survey –
Shows Rent Pressure
Rising
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Economic Forecast
2013
2014
forecast
2015
forecast
GDP Growth
1.9%
1.9%
2.7%
Job Growth
1.7%
1.7%
1.8%
CPI Inflation
1.4%
2.5%
3.5%
Consumer
Confidence
73
82
86
2.5%
2.8%
3.6%
10-year Treasury
Forecast #2
Multi-year Housing Expansion – Broadly Speaking
• Pent-Up Demand
– Population Growth
– Job Growth
• Some underperformance, however, from lockin effect
• Inevitable Growth in housing starts add
inventory
• Vacation home sales growth
U.S. Population
350
In millions
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
Pent Up Demand
2000
2013
Existing Home Sales
5.2 m
5.1 m
New Home Sales
880 K
430 K
Mortgage Rates
8.0%
4.0%
Payroll Jobs
132.0 m
136.4 m
Population
282 m
316 m
Locked-in Effect of Low Rates?
• Housing cannot get back to normal in a hurry
• People move even in high interest rate
environment
• Many unplanned landlords
– Take advantage of rising rents while rates are low
and fixed
• Potential future lock from longer holding
period for capital gains tax exclusion
Reasons Why Sellers Move
Reason
Percentage
Home is too small or large
29%
Job relocation or closer to
current job
20%
Want to move closer to
13%
friends .. Better neighborhood
Neighborhood has become
less desirable
10%
Marriage, Divorce, Birth
8%
Moving due to retirement
6%
Upkeep is too difficult
4%
Cannot afford the mortgage
3%
and other expenses of owning
2012 - Q4
2012 - Q1
2011 - Q2
2010 - Q3
2009 - Q4
2009 - Q1
2008 - Q2
2007 - Q3
2006 - Q4
2006 - Q1
2005 - Q2
2004 - Q3
2003 - Q4
2003 - Q1
2002 - Q2
2001 - Q3
75000
2000 - Q4
2000 - Q1
Household Net Worth
$ billion
70000
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
Vacation Home Sales
1,200
1,000
In thousands
800
600
400
200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Housing Starts Rising … More Inventory
But Needs to Reach 1.5 million
multifamily
single-family
2500
Thousand units (annualized)
2000
Long-term Average
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
- Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan
Time to Sell a New Spec Homes
(in months)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
- Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan
Sluggish Recovery in Housing Starts
• Cost of Construction Rising Faster than CPI
• Labor Shortage for construction work
• Construction loan difficulty for small local
homebuilders … Dodd-Frank financial
regulations?
National Housing Forecast
2013
2014
forecast
2015
forecast
Housing Starts
925,000
1.1 million
1.4 million
New Home Sales
430,000
Near 500,000
Near 700,000
5.1 million
4.9 million
5.3 million
Median Price
Growth
+ 11.5%
+ 5% to 6%
+ 3% to 5%
30-year Rate
4.0%
4.4%
5.4%
Existing Home Sales
2008 - Oct
2009 - Jan
2009 - Apr
2009 - Jul
2009 - Oct
2010 - Jan
2010 - Apr
2010 - Jul
2010 - Oct
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
2013 - Oct
2014 - Jan
2014 - Apr
First-time Buyer Share
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Young Adult Homeownership Rate
(under 35 years old)
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
- Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1
Millennial Housing Demand Returns
• Austin
• Dallas-Ft. Worth
• Denver
• Des Moines
• Grand Rapids
• Minneapolis
• New Orleans
• Ogden
• Salt Lake City
• Settle-Tacoma
Forecast #3: More Unequal Wealth
Distribution
• Renters do not accumulate wealth
• Renter population rising
• Homeowners build wealth after buying at low
prices
• Stagnant homeowner population
• Tight Credit hinders ‘good’ renters from
becoming homeowners
• Investors becoming increasing share of
property owners
41,000
39,000
1980 - Q1
1981 - Q1
1982 - Q1
1983 - Q1
1984 - Q1
1985 - Q1
1986 - Q1
1987 - Q1
1988 - Q1
1989 - Q1
1990 - Q1
1991 - Q1
1992 - Q1
1993 - Q1
1994 - Q1
1995 - Q1
1996 - Q1
1997 - Q1
1998 - Q1
1999 - Q1
2000 - Q1
2001 - Q1
2002 - Q1
2003 - Q1
2004 - Q1
2005 - Q1
2006 - Q1
2007 - Q1
2008 - Q1
2009 - Q1
2010 - Q1
2011 - Q1
2012 - Q1
2013 - Q1
Renter Households
In thousands
37,000
35,000
33,000
31,000
29,000
27,000
25,000
80,000
1980 - Q1
1981 - Q1
1982 - Q1
1983 - Q1
1984 - Q1
1985 - Q1
1986 - Q1
1987 - Q1
1988 - Q1
1989 - Q1
1990 - Q1
1991 - Q1
1992 - Q1
1993 - Q1
1994 - Q1
1995 - Q1
1996 - Q1
1997 - Q1
1998 - Q1
1999 - Q1
2000 - Q1
2001 - Q1
2002 - Q1
2003 - Q1
2004 - Q1
2005 - Q1
2006 - Q1
2007 - Q1
2008 - Q1
2009 - Q1
2010 - Q1
2011 - Q1
2012 - Q1
2013 - Q1
Homeowner Households has not Grown since
2006 … but Primed to Grow
In thousands
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000
Wealth Distribution
(Federal Reserve data on median net worth)
$300,000
Bubble Crash
$250,000
1998
$200,000
2001
$150,000
2004
2007
$100,000
2010
$50,000
2014
$0
Renter
2014 Forecast by NAR
Owner
What Homebuyers Want?
Slightly More Preference For Condo or
Apartment Living Than In 2011
Housing Type Preference (2013):
Housing Type Preference (2011):
Condo
or Apt.
8%
14%
Condo or Apt.
5%
Single
Family
Attached
7%
4%
6%
Single Family
Attached
76%
Single Family
Detached
House
80%
Single Family
Detached House
Right now, if you could choose, which of the following would you prefer to live in:
Slide 47
What Buyers Want Most From Their Agent
Determine
what
comparable
homes were
selling for,
8%
Help with the
price
negotiations,
11%
Help with
paperwork,
7%
Help find
and arrange
financing,
3%
Help buyer
negotiate the
terms of sale,
12%
Help find the
right home to
purchase,
53%
Where Clients Come From
• From Members:
– 21 percent repeat business from past clients
– 21 percent referrals from past clients
– 3 percent off member website (of those with a website)
• From Buyers:
– 54 percent use an agent that was referred to them or
they had worked with before
– 9 percent found agent online
• From Sellers:
– 64 percent use an agent that was referred to them or
they had worked with before
– 4 percent found agent online
• 2/3rds of buyers/sellers only contact 1 agent
Commercial Market Activity
Commercial Investment Sales of Large Properties
(Properties valued at $2.5 million and over)
Commercial Sales in $Billions
571
430
400 420
423
362
355
299
212
130
233
174
147
67
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug
2001 - Mar
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2006 - Jun
2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jun
2014 - Jan
Green Street Price Index
Charting New Highs
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Price Increases Supported
by Rising Rents and Low Interest Rates
Cap Rates and Treasuries: Large Gap
10yr UST*
Cap Rate
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
REALTOR® Markets & Deal Size
(Not $2.5 million Properties)
2013 CRE Lending Survey: Value of most recent sales transaction
> $10,000,000
$5,000,000 - $10,000,000
$2,000,000 - $5,000,000
$1,000,000 - $2,000,000
2%
1%
12%
17%
$500,000 - $1,000,000
$250,000 - $500,000
< $250,000
26%
22%
21%
Source: NAR
Small Banks Important to REALTORS®
Current sources of financing for commercial deals
National banks (“Big four”)
3%
1%
8%
Regional banks
11%
Local banks
17%
Credit unions
Life insurance companies
REITs
18%
Private investors
Public companies
Small Business Administration
4%
25%
6%
7%
Source: NAR
Other, please specify
Prices Accelerate in REALTOR® Markets
Sales Prices (YoY % Chg)
Moody’s/RCA CPPI - Major Markets
Realtor CRE Markets
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics
REALTOR® CRE Markets Rebound
Sales Volume (YoY % Chg)
Major CRE Markets
Realtor CRE Markets
200%
150%
Deals > $2.5M
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics
Commercial Forecast
OFFICE
Vacancy Rate
Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.)
Completions ('000 sq. ft.)
Rent Growth
2013 I
16.0%
10,268
7,220
0.6%
2013 II
15.9%
6,310
7,275
0.6%
2013 III
15.7%
8,955
6,030
0.7%
2013 IV
15.6%
8,440
5,494
0.7%
2014 I
15.6%
13,128
8,598
0.7%
2013
15.9%
33,973
26,019
2.6%
2014
15.7%
42,349
30,986
2.8%
INDUSTRIAL
Vacancy Rate
Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.)
Completions ('000 sq. ft.)
Rent Growth
2013 I
9.6%
24,354
12,643
0.5%
2013 II
9.5%
21,919
13,448
0.6%
2013 III
9.5%
38,966
8,787
0.5%
2013 IV
9.4%
36,531
8,362
0.7%
2014 I
9.2%
20,695
18,849
0.6%
2013
9.5%
121,770
43,241
2.3%
2014
9.0%
103,475
64,467
2.6%
RETAIL
Vacancy Rate
Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.)
Completions ('000 sq. ft.)
Rent Growth
2013 I
10.7%
4,297
1,981
0.2%
2013 II
10.6%
2,865
1,712
0.3%
2013 III
10.6%
1,910
1,923
0.5%
2013 IV
10.5%
2,865
1,964
0.5%
2014 I
10.4%
5,899
3,328
0.5%
2013
10.6%
11,935
7,580
1.5%
2014
10.1%
16,387
12,735
2.1%
MULTI-FAMILY
Vacancy Rate
Net Absorption (Units)
Completions (Units)
Rent Growth
2013 I
4.0%
64,954
31,851
1.0%
2013 II
3.9%
67,661
40,457
1.1%
2013 III
3.9%
56,835
36,945
1.2%
2013 IV
3.8%
81,193
39,205
1.3%
2014 I
3.9%
60,759
36,251
1.2%
2013
3.9%
270,643
148,458
4.6%
2014
4.0%
253,161
168,962
4.7%
Sources: National Association of REALTORS® / Reis, Inc.
Forecast over the next 2 years
• GDP Growth near 3%
• Net New Jobs about 2 million a year
• Rising interest rates …
– 10-year Treasury to reach 4% by late 2015
• Cap rates rise somewhat (narrow the gap first)
• Increased occupancy and falling vacancy (new
supply lacking)
• Rising rents … can offset rising rates to support
property values
• Overall … improving business opportunities
Washington Policy Watch on
Commercial Real Estate
• Facilitate Covered Bonds to help credit flow
• Raise cap on holding of commercial RE loans by
credit unions
• Preserve Like-Kind Exchanges
• Preserve Terrorism Insurance
• Preserve capital gains status on carried interest
• Depreciation Rules should match economic life
• Oppose lease-accounting changes
For Daily Update and Analysis
• Facebook
–Key word search … NAR Research
• Twitter
@NAR_Research