Transcript Slide 1
Rudd’s Foreign Policy Andrew Carr and Chris Roberts Todays presentation • Administration and Centralisation • Middle Power Activism • Relations with the world • The fall and rise of Rudd Centralisation and burden – Centralisation of office • Appoint National Security Advisor – Duncan Lewis • Personal Envoys on key topics – Garnaut (Climate), Woolcott (APC) • Centralisation not a new trend, but strongly reinforced by Rudd • Big workflow problems – Issues raised & dropped suddenly. Or sit idle as PM is distracted. • Loved ideas and details, not so much decision making and administration. The lone ranger – Little help/engagement • Rudd his own ‘uber’ foreign minister. • Stephen Smith as Foreign Min, Joel Fitzgibbon as Defence Minister • Strained relations with DFAT – Excluded & underfunded. • Opposition AWOL on International Affairs. 3 leaders, 3 shadow foreign affairs ministers. No attention – Australia’s foreign policy during the Rudd government was utterly driven by the strengths, and weaknesses of Kevin Michael Rudd Middle Power Activism – Strong vision of activist middle power nation: ‘[Australia] which seeks to take Chifley’s vision of a ‘light on the hill’ into an uncertain century. This is an enlarging vision that sees Australia taking the lead on global climate change…on the Millennium Development Goals…This is an Australia that becomes a leader, not a follower, in the redesign of the rules of the international order’ (Rudd – 2006 ‘Faith in Politics’) – G-20 – A notable success, due in large part to Rudd’s personal activism. • Rudd thinks if he can be in the room, a deal can be worked out. Middle power Activism #2 – Lots of ideas, but little implementation. – ICNND – Good start, then forgotten. – Climate Change – Excluded from Copenhagen, abandoned at home. – Whaling – Needless antagonism of Japan – UN Security Council seat – Still going, late, difficult run. – Didn’t learn lessons of Evans era ‘careful identification of opportunities for action, sufficient physical capacity to follow issues through, including the energy and stamina to ensure that good ideas did not fall by the wayside, intellectual imagination and creativity, and credibility through independence and consistency’ Rudd’s Vision for an Asia Pacific Community • An Asia Pacific wide institution • Engage and cooperate in economic, political and security matters • Develop a genuine and comprehensive sense of community whose default instinct is to cooperate Challenges to Rudd’s APC • Richard Woolcott’s appointment – Problems – Outcome of consultations: ‘interest’ but no implementation • Institutional design – A regional debate or an attempted fait accompli? – Repeated references to the EU – Calls for details (ambiguity) Challenges to Rudd’s APC • Issue of membership and leadership • Nexus between capacity and a noodle bowl of regional institutions – ASEAN, APEC, ASEAN Plus Three, SAARC, SCO, Shangri-La dialogue, EAS… – Number of meetings in ASEAN – Language • Method of delivery • Singapore: ‘dead in the water’. The challenge of building a community The challenge of building a community 100.0% 100.0% 14% 80.0% 14% 20% 80.0% 53% 67% 75% 60.0% 100% 40.0% 100% 100% 53% 67% 75% 80% 60.0% 86% 42% 80% 57% 86% 33% 42% 33% 57% 100% No No Unsure Unsure Yes Yes 40.0% 26% 20% 20.0% 14% … 0.0% … …… …… 25% 21% 20% 14% 13% 13% … 26% 20% … 20.0% 25% 0.0% 17% Are there any Are there any circumstances circumstances where you could where you could 17% envisage armed envisage armed 20% conflicts between conflicts between two or moretwo or more ASEAN states ASEAN states during the course during the course of the next twenty of the next twenty years? years? 47% … 42% 29% 20% 47% 42% 29% 21% … Brunei Laos Brunei Malaysia Laos Philippines Malaysia Philippines Thailand Thailand Myanmar Indonesia Myanmar Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Vietnam Singapore Cambodia Singapore Strategic Allies by Overall Rank Country Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3 Singapore United States Indonesia Australia Malaysia Indonesia Brunei Thailand Indonesia United States Malaysia Japan The Philippines Indonesia United States Singapore Thailand Singapore Malaysia United States Cambodia Malaysia Singapore China Myanmar * Laos Malaysia Thailand Laos Vietnam China Cambodia Brunei * Malaysia Singapore Indonesia Vietnam Laos China Singapore Bilateral Relations • Indonesia – Early resentments – Largely on track • India – Uranium – Indian student assaults • Japan – The whaling issue Relations with China • China – 2008 lecture at a Chinese university • Rudd’s honours thesis: Wei Jingsheng – 2009 Defence White Paper • Reference to China • Government: ‘amazed’ and ‘displeased’ • Other Chinese sources: ‘crazy’, ‘stupid’ and ‘dangerous’ – Cancellation of $19.5 billion acquisition Relations with the US • Ideological differences with Bush • Ideological convergence with Obama – Obama praised Rudd as ‘somebody who I probably share as much of a world view as any leader out there…’ – Implications of Obama’s prioritisation of Afghanistan • 40% increase in military deployment • Cancelled visits – little impact The fall and rise of Rudd – Dumped – but restored to Foreign Ministry post election. – No evidence Rudd has learnt lessons from time. – However: While PM – Big area, small dept. While FM – Smaller area, larger dept. – Gillard showing focus on economics/fundamentals in FP. – Balance w/ Gillard’s details & Rudd’s creativity could work well – If they can fix personal relationship.