Transcript History of Globalization

Population
and
Demographics
1st test next week on last week and this week’s
lectures.
Study the PowerPoint and Use the Study Guide
that’s on the website.
Questions are taken from the visible PowerPoint
slides.
There may be more detail is on the hidden slides
or slide notes but no questions are taken from
them.
Data questions: No specifics required unless I
say so in lecture but you need to know ‘greater
than, increase/decrease’ type answers.
Date questions: I give you dates/periods and you
have to know what went on.
1. Population and demographics are important because…
2. Economic Geography explores…
3. The production network of the space economy is comprised of what.
4. The space economy’s contexts.
This is not a substitute for studying nor will I
7. Linkages within the space economy.
entertain complaints that it misguided you!
8. Distance decay?
9. Characteristics of the stages of the demographic transition as they relate to economic
Normally I…
change and urbanisation.
10. Modelling, levels
abstraction,
isotropic
conditions, assumptions.
Doofnot
expect you
to remember
any data slides
11. The Wisdomexcept
of the Crowd.
in terms of greater than, less than, increase,
12. Immigrationdecrease
and importance
countries.
termstoetc,
unless I mention that you need
13. Population pyramids, forto
levels
of development.
remember
the data in class.
14. The synchronous model of demographic, economic, and urban change.
15. Relationships between fertility, infant mortality, population growth rates and GDP for
Do not expect you to remember dates - I give you
different regions.
periods and you need to know what went on.
24. What is the demographic dividend?
25. Implications of the butterfly effect.
26. Dependency rates and what they measure.
27. Urbanisation and urban growth.
28. Implications of dependency rates for nations.
Population and Demographics
The World’s Population Clock
As of today: 7,206,579,893 people on earth
Every minute:
271 born
106 die (among them 11 infants)
165 population increase
# Born
# Dying
Increase
Developed
Developing
27
23 (0.1)
3
245
83 (11)
162
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH
Population and Demographics
The World’s Population Clock
As of today: 6,871,496,764 people on earth
By the time this lecture ends:
Every minute:
264 born
108 die (among 48,780
them 13 infants)
births
156 population increase
# Born
# Dying
Increase
19,080 deaths
Developed
Developing
29,700
increase
27
237
1,980
23 (0.2)infant deaths
85 (13)
4
152
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH
WORLD POPULATION BILLIONS
World Population Growth Through History
Linear Scales
12,000
Much is hidden by the time scale
and slow early population growth.
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
YEARS
AGOGROWTH
DEMOGRAPHICS
- POPULATION
2,000 1,000 Now
WORLD POPULATION (Log10 Scale)
World Population Growth Through History
Log10 Population Scale
7 billion
I billion
12,000
Period of urbanization:
the last 300 years
About 300 years ago, as industrial revolution
takes hold, population grows exponentially.
About 8,000 years ago, as agricultural
revolution takes hold and cities begin,
population surges.
10,000
Period of urban growth:
9,000 to 300 years ago
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000 1,000 Now
YEARS AGO
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH
World Population 1950 to 2050 (est.)
10,000
2.5
9,000
2
7,000
6,000
1.5
5,000
4,000
1
3,000
2,000
0.5
1,000
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0
Population, millions
Source: Calculated from U.S. Bureau of the Census data.
Growth Rates, Percentage
Percentage Change
Population Mllions
8,000
100
Absolute Population Growth, 1950 to 2050 (est)
Decreasing annual growth in
numbers of people started in 1988.
90
70
60
50
But still added
almost 70 million
people in 2014…
40
30
20
10
1985
1990
1995
2000
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1950
1955
0
•Source: Calculated from U.S. Bureau of the Census data.
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
… and by 2050 it will
still be almost 40
million.
2005
2010
2015
2020
Millions of People
80
Population Growth Rates
been declining since
3
the mid 1980s, with
2.5
the developed world
declining since the
2
1950s.
Developing world and Sub
Saharan Africa higher than
world average
World
Sub Saharan Africa
1.5
It1 is not growth rates
that drive increasing
0.5
population but the
0age composition of
the population.
-0.5
Many young equals
potential for large
population growth
despite declining
fertility rates.
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
Percentage
All growth rates have
3.5
Europe
North America
Developed Regions
Developing Regions
Developed world and Europe lower
than world average, with negative
rates for Europe.
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH
Billions of Women
Billions 15-49
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
The number of women of childbearing age
more than doubled between 1950 and
1990.
0.00
6
Average # of Children per Woman
2.50
Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility
Even though fertility rates (# live births per female) are
decreasing (blue line), the number of women of
childbearing age is increasing (red columns).
The net result is population growth.
1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050
Women 15 to 49
Fertility Rate
5
4
3
2
1
0
2010
Rank
Most Populated Countries
2050
Nation
The U.S.
1
China
moves
to
4th2largest
India
in number
3
United States
and 1st in
4
Indonesia
resource
5use.
Brazil
6
Russia
7
and
8
Japan
9will
leave
10
the list…
Pakistan
Population
(millions)
Rank
Nation
1,330
1
India
1,173
2
China
310
3
Nigeria
243
4
United States
201
5
Indonesia
Nigeria shoots from 8th to 3rd
177
6
Pakistan
Bangladesh
158
7
Brazil
Nigeria
152
8
Bangladesh
Russia
139
9
DR of Congo
Japan
126
10
Ethiopia
Total
3938
Total
% of Total
58.9%
% of Total
Population
By 2050
(millions)
India will
1,652
replace
1,314as
China
the440
world’s
most
400
populated
country.
366
363
227
…and two
201
African
182
nations
will
178 join
it.
5,190
58.0
The top 10 most populous countries have @60% of the world’s population.
- POPULATION
GROWTH
By 2050 they will all be in DEMOGRAPHICS
the current
developing
world except for the U.S.
Now:
7.286 billion
Likely between
high and
medium.
UN high fertility variant: Fertility rates stay constant = 11.2 billion
UN med fertility variant: ZPG = 9.0 billion
No chance.
UN low fertility variant: Fertility rates <ZPG = 8.5
Global Population Growth: A Developing-Country Phenomenon
World population, 1950-2050 (projected using U.N. Medium Variant)
10
9
7
6
2050
6.1 billion
@83%
7.9 billion
@85%
7.3 billion
100%
9.3 billion
100%
1.2 billion
@17%
1.4 billion
@15%
5
4
3
2
1
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Population (Billions)
8
2014
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH
15
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH
Demographic Transition
Rate per 1,000 population
40
Total
Population
growth
30
Natural Increase/decrease
20
Death Rate
Birth Rate
10
0 1700
1740 1780
1820
1860
1900
1940
1980 2020
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
High Fluctuating
Early expanding
Late expanding Low fluctuating
U.K. pre 1760
U.K. 1760-1870
U.K. 1870-1950 U.K. post 1950
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH
Stage 5
Decline?
U.K.
21st century
Controlling Death
Measles Mortality Rate in the United States 1900-1990
Stable high
mortality 19001925.
Rapidly declining
rates 1925-1942
with better
prophylactic care.
Lower rates
stabilise
1942-1964.
•DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION
GROWTH
Vaccination
begins in 1964,
virtually
eliminating
disease.
•18
Controlling Death
Measles Incidence and Vaccination Rates, England & Wales
In the 2000s a decrease in vaccination rates due to fears of autism
caused a recurrence of and increase in measles until increasing
vaccination rates reduced the incidence rates again.
18000
16000
14000
12000
Incidence rate
Vaccination rate
100%
95%
90%
10000
8000
85%
6000
4000
80%
2000
0
1990 1992
•DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION
GROWTH
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
75%
•19
Controlling Death
Tuberculosis Mortality Rate in the United States 1900-1970
Similar pattern to measles: declining rates due to better prophylactic
care. Then rapidly declining rates due to immunization in 1951.
Multi Drug Resistant TB a
growing concern globally,
especially for poorer countries
and unvaccinated people.
More on this in health and
pandemics lectures.
•DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION
GROWTH
•20
Controlling Births
Birth rates more difficult to control since it is a cultural and economic
decision. Any gains from declining death rates of children are not
immediately obvious. Here fertility rates decline as infant mortality
declines, stabilizing at about replacement rate.
Total Fertility Rate
Replacement Rate
Infant Mortality
21
DEMOGRAPHICS - DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Demographic Transition, Low and High Income Nations
50.0
Per 1,000 Population
45.0
40.0
35.0
Low Income Nations
Stage 3, BR & DR still declining
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
High Income Nations
Stage 4, BR & DR both low
Source: World Bank Indicators
Births, Low Income
Deaths, Low Income
Births, High Income
Deaths, High Income
2009
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
0.0
Demographic Transition, Canada
30.0
Per 1,000 Population
25.0
Stage 4 since @ 2000, BR & DR both low
20.0
15.0
Births
10.0
Deaths
5.0
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
0.0
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH
Source: World Bank Indicators
Demographic Transition, Germany
20
18
Per 1,000 Population
16
Stage 5 since @ 1971, BR lower than DR.
14
12
10
Death Rate
Birth rate
8
6
Natural decrease.
Without in-migration, there will
be population decline.
4
2
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
0
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH
Source: World Bank Indicators
Rate per 1,000 Population
25
20
Where’s demographic transition at?
Europe
Europe has moved into stage “five” of demographic
transition where death rates exceed birth rates.
15
10
5
0
It now faces population decline unless this is
compensated by increased fertility or migration.
-5
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Natural Increase
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH
POPULATION CHANGE, MEXICO AND SWEDEN 1735-2005
Showing death rates, birth rates and demographic transition
stages (orange Sweden, green Mexico).
Stage 1
Stage 1
Stage 2
1815
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 3
Stage 4
1905
•26
•27
Staying Alive
Its one thing to control births and deaths but
quite another to stay alive in between.
How good that life might be is also worth
exploring, so we will look at a few life
variables such as survivorship, life
expectancy and aging.
Survivorship is very amusing – it looks at
your chances of reaching your next birthday.
Yours are better than mine 
•28
Survivorship
Survivorship is a demographic technique that
computes the probability that a given age cohort
will live until their next birthday.
Basically, it tracks the fate of a given age cohort –
newborns, 10 year olds, 80 year olds, etc.
They are fundamental to actuarial science and to
population projection models for all species.
The basic curves are thus:
•29
Percentage of population
surviving
Basic Survivorship Curves
High survivorship
Rapid die off in older years
e.g. humans
Steady survivorship
Constant die off across all years
e.g. most birds
Low survivorship
Rapid die off in younger years
e.g. turtles
0
Age of population
Old
Percentage of population
surviving
Human Survivorship Curves
High survivorship
Rapid die off in older years
More developed countries
Steady survivorship
Constant die off across all years
Developing countries
Low survivorship
Rapid die off in younger years
Least developed countries
Age of population
•31
Canadian Female and Male Survivorship Curves 1831 and 2011
Probability of Surviving to Next cohort
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
In 1831 the probability of
surviving your first 5 years of life
were as low as those of surviving
your 55th to 60th year of life.
50.00
40.00
Female survivorship rates are
higher than those of males.
30.00
20.00
10.00
Overall, survivorship rates have
increased over the period.
0.00
0 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
AGE COHORT
Males 1831
Females 1831
Males 2011
Females 2011•32
% Probability of Surviving to Next Age Cohort
Canadian Female and Male Survivorship Curves
0-5 Age Cohort 1831 to 2011
100.00
98.00
96.00
94.00
92.00
Survival rates of infants have
improved by almost 20
percentage points over the
period, and males have closed
the gap with females.
90.00
88.00
86.00
84.00
82.00
80.00
Year
Age 0-1 Males
Age 0-1 females
•33
% Probability of Surviving to Next Age Cohort
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
Canadian Female and Male Survivorship Curves
85-90 Age Cohort 1831 to 2011
Survival rates of the elderly have
improved by almost 45 percentage
points over the period, but the gap
between males females has grown.
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
-
Year
Females Age 85 Cohort
Males Age 85 Cohort
•34
Survivorship Curves, India, Niger, U.K. (1999), 17th Century England
U.K. 1999
India
Niger
17th Century England
•35
Life Expectancy 2013
Highest Life Expectancy (Years)
Hong Kong
84
San Marino
84
Lowest Life Expectancy (Years)
Lesotho
44
Sierra Leone
45
Switzerland
83
Botswana
47
People in the most developed
nations live 1.7 times
Singapore
83
Swaziland
49 as
the least
developed
countries.50
Japan long as people in 83
Central
African Republic
Spain
82
Congo
50
Sweden
Liechtenstein
Australia
82
82
82
Cote d’Ivoire
Chad
Angola
51
51
52
Italy
82
82.7
Equatorial Guinea
Average
53
49.2
Average
Population Reference Bureau, 2011
•36
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS
An Aging Gender Bound World
Going to look at changing population structure in the
world, which principally means exploring aging and
gender.
Underlying economic principles are that:
People are an asset when they can work.
People are a liability when they cannot.
Women in the developing world are the principal earners.
This leads to:
The need for a socio-economic system that can support
dependents (the young and the old) and this means having
an appropriate number of workers who are working.
The need for a socio-economic system that provides the
freedom for women to get educated, obtain resources,
and to work.
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS
The Population Pyramid Structure
Gender is split on the horizontal axis…
males
females
Each “row” shows the
number or proportion
of males or females in
that cohort for that
region/nation.
…as is population size in numbers or proportions.
Age cohorts
are on the vertical axis.
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS
The Population Pyramid Also Shows Potential for
Growth.
The lower cohorts become the
older cohorts – e.g. the 0-4
years olds become the 30-34
years olds in 30 years.
Dependent
Groups
Workforce
Elderly = economic liability
Children = economic
asset for Reproduction
Potential
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS
Basic Population Pyramids
Fewer
old
Pyramids
Very few old
population
Fewer
support population
Many young
Many support
are dynamic,
changing
population
over time from one
shape to another.
Fewer
young
Typical of
developed world
with migration
such as Canada.
Typical of
developing
world.
Many Old
Few support
population
Few
young
Typical of developed
world with little
migration such as
Japan.
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS
Population in Percent Share, World
Population
(millions):
1950 = 2,516
2015 = 7,324
2050 =9,550
World
1950
World
2015
Percent change in
population:
2015-2050 = 23.8%
2050-2100 = 13.6%
Source: http://populationpyramid.net
World
2050
Population in Percent Share, Europe
Population
(millions):
1950 = 549
2015 = 743
2050 = 709
Europe
1950
Europe
2015
By 2050 Europe will have
declined in population,
having only @7%.
Europe
2050
Population in Percent Share, Africa
Population
(millions):
1950 = 228
2015 = 1,166
2050 = 2,393
Africa
1950
Africa
2015
By 2050 only Africa will still have
population growth potential; i.e. a
young population, and about 25% of
global total.
Africa
2050
Population in Percent Share, Asia
Population
(millions):
1950 = 1,359
2015 = 4,450
2050 = 5,162
Asia
1950
Asia
2015
By 2050 Asia will have reached
European pyramid shape but will have
54% of global total.
Source: http://populationpyramid.net
Asia
2050
If current fertility and immigration rates continue to
2050, Germany's population will age dramatically.
With few young people to support the aging population, by 2050 the
tax base will erode and social services decline.
Population millions
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS
Population in Percent Share, Germany
Population
(millions)
1950 = 70
2015 = 82
2050 = 72
Germany
2015
Germany
2015
Germany
2050
By 2050 Germany’s population
will have declined almost back
to 1950 levels.
Source: http://populationpyramid.net
Japan: Population Pyramids, 1990 to 2050
Declining population + increasing number of elderly + highly
restrictive immigration policies = pending economic disaster.
Population 2013 = 127.1 million.
Dependents
Support group
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS
Population in Percent Share, Japan
Population
(millions):
1950 = 82
2015 = 126
2050 = 108
Japan
1950
Japan
2015
Japan – decline in population
(2015 = 125.4 million):
2015-2050 = -15.9%
2050-2100 = -22.1%
Japan
2050
Population in Percent Share, Canada
Population
(millions):
1950 = 14
2015 = 36
2050 = 45
Canada
1950
Canada
2015
Canada’s population will
continue to grow steadily – from
migration.
Source: http://populationpyramid.net
Canada
2050
Population in Percent Share, China
Population
(millions)
1950 = 544
2015 = 1,432
2050 = 1,384
China
1950
China
2015
China’s population will continue
to decline steadily but will still
constitute 14.5% of the world.
Source: http://populationpyramid.net
China
2050
MEDIAN AGE (50% of population below and 50% above)
Location
1950
2010
2050
World
24.0
29.1
38.4
More developed regions
29.0
39.7
45.6
Least developed regions
19.5
19.9
29.0
Eastern Europe
26.4
38.5
46.0
South America Japan: 2014 = 46.1, 2050
20.4 = 53 28.2
42.1
Sub Saharan Africa
19.0
27.2
There will be almost as
many 18.6
Asia
22.3
29.0
40.2
centenarians as newborns.
China
23.9
34.2
45.2
India
21.3
25.0
38.4
Canada
27.7
39.9
45.2
U.S.A.
30.0
36.6
41.7
Source: United Nations Database.
Germany
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS
Uganda
Malawi
Zambia
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS
Growth Rate by Age Group, Canada 2006-2011
Where the workers – and customers – are.
CHILD 0-19
GenZ
iGen
EchoGen
GenY
SUPPORT 20-64
GenX
ELDERLY 65+
Boomers Boomer
Parents
G.I. Gen
0 5 10 15 20 25 30DEMOGRAPHICS
35 40 -45
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
POPULATION PYRAMIDS
AGE COHORT
Canada Population Pyramid 2011
ECONOMIC LIABILITY?
BOOMER PARENTS
BOOMERS
GEN X
ECHO
GEN Z
DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS
And what happens to the (not so) old folks?
Boomers have largest pension fund reservoir in history,
estimated in 2013 at $29.7 trillion or 78% of GDP,1 but…
But the value was about 25% higher before the 2008
crash and the low interest rates of the “recovery’s”
monetary policy have since crippled its ability to
recover.
Canada has $1.5trillion - @84% of GDP.
1
For Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Japan, Netherlands, South Africa, Switzerland, U.K., U.S.
Source: Towers Watson, Global Pension Assets Study 2013
DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY
Not The Birds and the Bees
The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children
being born to women of child bearing age in a given society
and is related to social and economic decisions.
It should not be confused with fecundity, which refers to the
biological and genetic capacity of a woman to bear children.
All women have the same fecundity, but a nation’s women
might have quite different fertility rates.
The higher the TFR in a nation/region the more population
will grow.
Even low TFRs can result in population growth if there are
many females 15-49, and especially in younger cohorts:
4m women at TFR 2 = 8m kids, 1.6m at TFR 5 = 8m kids.
DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY
Relationship Between TFR and Population Size
The volatility of population growth is shown in the table
below, with three of the scenarios producing high to very high
growth rates. Even when female population is low, high TFRs
can produce high growth rates.
TFR
FEMALE
POPULATION
15-45
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
Population growth
rate very high.
Population growth
rate high.
LOW
Population growth
rate high.
Population growth
rate very low.
•61
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
World TFR
Years
TFR
1950–1955
4.95
1955–1960
4.89
1960–1965
4.91
1965–1970
4.85
If these things are high, then
1970–1975
4.45
fertility will be low.
1975–1980
3.84
A TFR of 2.1 is considered
1980–1985
3.59
necessary to achieve zero
1985–1990
3.39
population growth.
1990–1995
3.04
1995–2000
2.79
Less than that leads to
2000–2005
2.62
population decline while
2005–2010
2.52
higher rates mean population
2.36
growth. •DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY 2010–2015
The TFR is dependent on
many things, most of which
affect a woman’s health,
education, prosperity to
name three.
World TFR 2012
Canada’s TFR is currently 1.68 – very low. Without
immigration Canada’s population size would decline rapidly.
And
Japan’s is
1.37
•DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY
Fertility Rate and Women of Childbearing Age
2.00
6
Even though fertility rates (# live births per female) are
decreasing (blue line), the number of women of
childbearing age is increasing (red columns).
The net result is population growth.
1.50
1.00
0.50
The number of women of childbearing age
more than doubled between 1950 and
1990.
5
Average # of Children per
15-49
Billions of Women
Billions
2.50
0.00
4
3
2
1
0
1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050
Women 15 to 49
Fertility Rate
8
Association
Between Fertility and Infant Mortality, 2011
Strong positive relationship between
infant mortality and fertility rate
Total Fertility Rate
7
6
5
R² = 0.6978
4
3
As infant mortality increases,
fertility rate increases.
2
1
0
0
20
•Source: Derived from World Bank Data
40
60
80
Infant Mortality
DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY
100
120
140
Association Between Fertility and Education
9
Strong negative relationship between
education attainment and fertility rate
8
Total Fertility Rate
7
R² = 0.7435
6
5
4
3
2
As education increases
fertility rates decrease.
1
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
DEMOGRAPHICS
- FERTILITYin Secondary School
Percent of Women
Enrolled
120
Association Between Fertility and Poverty, 2011
9
Strong positive relationship between
poverty and fertility rate
8
Total Fertility Rate
7
R² = 0.6429
6
5
4
3
2
As poverty increases total
fertility increases.
1
0
0
20
40
60
80
DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY
Percent of Population
Living on <$2 a Day
100
Whither Europe?
2.2
2
But nowhere near the 2.1
Fertility levels have been on the
replacement rate required to rebound in much of Europe from
stablise population.
the mid-1990s, except in Bosnia.
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
Euro Zone
Source: Worldbank Databank
Bosnia Herzogovinia
Germany
DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY
Sweden
Italy
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1
Population will start
declining by 2030 if
baseline (current)
trends hold.
X
2050
2000
DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY
DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY
Dependency
Dependency refers to the number of workers in a
population to the number of dependents.
Indicates the degree of tax burden on the economy, or
the cost of supporting children and the elderly.
It is measured using the ratio of the 15 to 64 age
cohort to the 0 to 14 and 65+ age cohorts.
It is comprised of:
an elderly cohort + a child cohort / a support cohort
DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY
Dependency Ratios
Total Dependency Ratio = (Number of people 0-14 + 65>)
Number of people 15-64
For example – Canada, dependency ratio
Pop 65+ = 4,945,000 (14.8%)
Pop <=14 = 5,607,345 (16.7%)
Pop 15-64 = 23,930,434 (68.5%)
Calculated:
By Proportion: (16.7%+14.8%)/68.5% = 0.46
By Population: (4,945,000+5,607,345)/23,930,434 = 0.44
Low dependency ratios mean a low level of dependence,
DEMOGRAPHICS
- DEPENDENCY
so low
numbers
are good.
Inverse Dependency Ratios
Inverse dependency ratios tell you how many support
people (or workers) you have for every dependent.
Using the Canadian population ratio calculated in the
last slide:
(4,945,000+5,607,345)/23,930,434 = 0.44
We take the inverse of the ratio:
1/0.44 = 2.27
which tells us that there are 2.27 support people for
every dependent.
High inverse dependency ratios mean a low level of
dependence so high numbers are good.
DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY
Interpreting Dependency Ratios
Dependency ratios are about the number of dependents.
Inverse dependency ratios are about the number of workers.
Dependency
Ratio
Inverse
Dependency
Ratio
Effects on an Economy
High
Low
Not good
Good
(Too many
(Not too many
dependents, not
dependents for the
enough workers)
number of workers)
Good
Not good
(Enough workers to
(Not enough
support the
workers to support
dependents)
the dependents)
DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY
Interpreting Dependency Ratios - Children versus Elderly
Developed nations are weighted heavily towards the elderly.
Developing nations are weighted heavily towards children.
Effects on an Economy
Elderly
cohort
component
(economic
liability)
Children
cohort
component
(economic
asset)
High contribution to
ratio
Not good
(Too many elderly
requiring support
without future
benefit.)
Good
(Children require
support but will
eventually become
workers.)- DEPENDENCY
DEMOGRAPHICS
Low contribution to
ratio
Good
(Few elderly
requiring support.)
Not good
(Children require
support and not
enough of them to
become workers.)
Growth in Canada’s Dependent Groups
The dependency ratio has decreased since 1921 but the
proportion of elderly has increased substantially.
1921
Proportion of dependents = 39.2%
Dependency ratio (1/x) = 0.65 (1.6)
Proportion of elderly dependents of
all dependents = 12.2%
2011
Proportion of dependents = 31.5%
Dependency ratio (1/x) = 0.46 (2.2)
Proportion of elderly dependents of
all dependents = 46.8%
DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY
Regional Proportions of Selected Dependent Age Cohorts of World
Population 2014
45%
34%
Under 15 years
34%
32%
DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY
35%
33%
Over 64 years
33%
Share of working age population
Working age populations are decreasing in developed countries, and the
elderly dependent group is increasing, as is sovereign debt, which eats
into the resources available to provide support.
DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY
Dependency Rates, Selected Nations, 2005 and 2050
As these nations age, ratios increase dramatically.
Japan has an especially difficult time ahead due to
restrictive immigration policy.
DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY
The Demographic Dividend
The advantage gained from having a young
population.
When a country has a large reservoir of young, it can
achieve what is called the demographic dividend.
This is the potential economic growth that may
result from having a large number of young who
move into the 15 to 64 year old cohorts – or into the
support group on a population pyramid.
But the dividend only occurs if a decline in a nation’s
birth and death rates – especially those of infants
and children - occurs.
DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY
The Demographic Dividend
Dividend requires that the TFR decreases significantly,
leading to fewer births and thus a decline in the ratio
of the young to the support cohorts of the economy.
Even then, the right social and economic policies
must be developed and the right investments made:
• Investment in child survival and health programs.
• Commitment to voluntary family planning.
• Investment in the reproductive health and
education for youth.
• Prioritize education, especially for women.
• Prioritize income earning, especially for women.
DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY
The Demographic Dividend – South Korea
South Korea made a rapid transition from high to low
fertility, while at the same time experiencing an
annual growth in per capita gross domestic product
of 6.7 percent between 1960 and 1990.
South Korea's success was the result of addressing
population issues, while also investing in
reproductive health programs, education, and
economic policies to create infrastructure and
manufacturing.
The following population pyramids illustrate how
quickly the fertility transition in South Korea took
place.
DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY
Population in Percent Share, Korea
Population
(millions)
1950 = 19
1980 = 40
2015 = 50
Korea
1950
TFR = 5.4
Korea
1980
TFR = 2.9
Korea’s population declined rapidly
after the Korean war and the
nation realized its demographic
dividend.
Source: http://populationpyramid.net
Korea
2015
TFR = 1.2
DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION
Where Does Population Growth Come From?
Pop growth =(Births - Deaths) + (In-migration - Out-migration)
(Births – Deaths) = Natural Increase or Decrease
(In-migration – Out-migration) = Net migration
Pop growth = Natural Increase or Decrease + Net Migration
Low rates of natural increase must be offset by increases in net
migration, otherwise populations decline.
Population Is important
Economic demand
Human resource asset
Territorial security
Cultural identity
DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION
WORLD POPULATION BASICS 2012
Natural
Net
Population
Population
Region
Births Per Deaths Increase Migration Growth Per
Growth rate
(Less Developed)
1000 Per 1000 Per 1000 Per 1000
1000
(%)
(B-D=NI)
(NM)
(NI+NM)
1.2
World
20
8
12
N/A
12
0.3
MDCs
11
10
1
2
3
1.3
LDCs
22
8
14
-1
13
2.4
Least DCs
35
10
25
-1
24
Africa
36
11
-1
2.4
25
24
Sub Saharan
38
12
-1
2.5
26
25
North Africa
26
6
-1
1.9
20
19
N. America
13
8
3
0.8
5
8
Canada
11
7
7
1.1
4
11
U.S.
13
8
2
0.7
5
7
Latin America
19
6
-1
1.2
13
12
Asia
18
7
0
1.1
11
11
China
12
7
0
0.5
5
5
Europe
11
11
2
0.2
0
2
N. Europe
13
9
3
0.7
4
7
Oceania
18
7DEMOGRAPHICS11
4
1.5
15
- MIGRATION
Source: Population Reference Bureau, World Data Sheet 2012
Population Growth Rate 2012
3
Percentage
2.5
2
1.5
2.5
Less developed regions are
growing fastest.
2.4 2.4
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.2 1.2
1.1 1.1
1
0.8
0.7 0.7
0.5
0.5
0.3
0
DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION
0.2
30
Natural Increase Per 1000 Population 2012
26
20
Natural increase is high in less developed parts
of the world.
20 By 2050 Europe’s population is estimated to
decrease to 732 million, from 740 million in
2012.
14
15
13
12
11 11
10
5
5
5
4
4
1
DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION
MDCs
N. Europe
Canada
China
U.S.
N. America
Oceania
Asia
World
Latin America
LDCs
North
Africa
Least DCs
0
0
Europe
5
Sub Saharan
Population per 1,000
25
25 25
8
7
7
Net Migration Per 1000 Population 2012
Developed regions depend on migration
for population growth.
6
5
4
4
3
3
Oceania includes Australia and New
3
Zealand.
2
2
0
0
0
-1
LDCs
Latin America
DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION
North
China
Asia
Europe
MDCs
U.S.
N. Europe
N. America
Oceania
Canada
World
-2
Africa
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Least DCs
0
2
Sub Saharan
1
2
COMPONENTS OF CANADIAN POPULATION GROWTH 1851 TO 2001
PERIOD
1851-1861
1861-1871
1871-1881
1881-1891
1891-1901
1901-1911
1911-1921
1921-1931
1931-1941
1941-1951
1951-1956
1956-1961
1961-1966
1966-1971
1971-1976
1976-1981
1981-1986
1986-1991
1991-1996
1996-2001
NATURAL
INCREASE (NI)
NET MIGRATION
POP GROWTH
611,000
610,000
690,000
654,000
668,000
1,025,000
1,270,000
1,360,000
1,222,000
1,972,000
1,473,000
1,675,000
1,518,000
1,090,000
936,000
977,000
987,000
987,000
912,000
616,000
21,253,000
182,000
-150,000
-54,000
-146,000
-130,000
810,000
311,000
230,000
-92,000
169,000
598,000
482,000
259,000
463,000
695,000
493,000
400,000
951,000
780,000
841,000
7,092,000
793,000
460,000
636,000
508,000
538,000
1,835,000
1,581,000
1,590,000
1,130,000
2,141,000
2,071,000
2,157,000
1,777,000
1,553,000
1,631,000
1,470,000
1,387,000
1,938,000
1,692,000
1,457,000
28,345,000
NM as a % of NI as a % of
Pop Growth Pop Growth
22.95%
77.05%
-32.61%
132.61%
-8.49%
108.49%
-28.74%
128.74%
-24.16%
124.16%
44.14%
55.86%
19.67%
80.33%
14.47%
85.53%
-8.14%
108.14%
7.89%
92.11%
28.87%
71.13%
22.35%
77.65%
14.58%
85.42%
29.81%
70.19%
42.61%
57.39%
33.54%
66.46%
28.84%
71.16%
49.07%
50.93%
46.10%
53.90%
57.72%
42.28%
25.02%
74.98%
COMPONENTS OF CANADIAN POPULATION GROWTH 1851 TO 2001
NM as a % of NI as a % of
Pop Growth
PERIOD
NET MIGRATION
POP GROWTH
Period Pop Growth
Average
net
1851-1861
611,000
182,000
793,000
22.95%
migration77.05%
share
1861-1871
610,000
-150,000
460,000
-32.61%
132.61%
of pop growth
1871-1881
690,000
-54,000
636,000
-8.49%
108.49%
1851 natural
1881-1891 Since
654,000
-146,000
508,000
128.74%
1931-2001 -28.74% 29.44%
1891-1901increase
668,000
-130,000
538,000
-24.16%
124.16%
has provided
1941-2001 44.14% 32.85%
1901-1911about
1,025,000
810,000
1,835,000
55.86%
75% of Canada’s
1911-1921
1,270,000
311,000
1,581,000
19.67%
80.33%
population
growth.
1951-2001
35.35%
1921-1931
1,360,000
230,000
1,590,000
14.47%
85.53%
1931-1941
1,222,000
-92,000
1,130,000
108.14%
1961-2001 -8.14% 37.78%
1941-1951
1,972,000 has been
169,000
2,141,000
7.89%
92.11%
But migration
1971-2001 28.87% 42.98%
1951-1956
1,473,000
598,000
2,071,000
71.13%
providing an ever
1956-1961
1,675,000
482,000
2,157,000
22.35% 45.43%
77.65%
1981-2001
increasing
share259,000
of
1961-1966
1,518,000
1,777,000
14.58%
85.42%
1991-2001 29.81% 51.91%
1966-1971 population
1,090,000 growth.
463,000
1,553,000
70.19%
1971-1976
936,000
695,000
1,631,000
42.61%
57.39%
1996-2001
57.72%
1976-1981
977,000
493,000
1,470,000
33.54%
66.46%
Between
2001
and
2013
1981-1986
987,000
400,000
1,387,000
71.16%
2010-2011 28.84% 72.49%
migration
share of 951,000
total
1986-1991
987,000
1,938,000
49.07%
50.93%
2011-2012 46.10% 65.46%
growth912,000
has averaged
71%
1991-1996
780,000
1,692,000
53.90%
1996-2001
616,000
841,000
1,457,000
57.72% 76.41%
42.28%
2012-2013
DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION
21,253,000
7,092,000
28,345,000
25.02%
74.98%
NATURAL
INCREASE (NI)
Natural Increase and Migration Canada, 1851-2001
2,500
Natural Increase dominant
growth component
2,000
Migration increasingly
dominant as major growth
component
1,500
1,000
500
Migration outstrips
natural increase
0
1851-1861
1861-1871
1871-1881
1881-1891
1891-1901
1901-1911
1911-1921
1921-1931
1931-1941
1941-1951
1951-1956
1956-1961
1961-1966
1966-1971
1971-1976
1976-1981
1981-1986
1986-1991
1991-1996
1996-2001
-500
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
Natural Increase
Net Migration
Percent Migration of Population Growth
Natural Increase and Migration as a Share of Population Growth
1851-2012
140.0%
Migration increasingly
dominant as growth
component.
120.0%
Percentage Share
100.0%
80.0%
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
Migration outstrips
natural increase
0.0%
-20.0%
1851-1861
1861-1871
1871-1881
1881-1891
1891-1901
1901-1911
1911-1921
1921-1931
1931-1941
1941-1951
1951-1956
1956-1961
1961-1966
1966-1971
1971-1976
1976-1981
1981-1986
1986-1991
1991-1996
1996-2001
2010-2011
2011-2012
-40.0%
Migration
Natural Increase
DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION
Source: Calculated from previous Statistics Canada data.
Japan 1965-2005
Net Migration as a Percent of Population Growth
40.00%
Canada Average 45%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
Note that natural increase is
so low in Japan that
migration share is fairly
meaningless.
0.00%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-10.00%
Average 5.4%
-20.00%
-30.00%
DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION
E.U. 27 Migration and Natural Increase
Transformation of just who it is
that is responsible for population
growth in Europe since the 1990s.
DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION
Implications of Migration on Population Growth
If natural increase becomes natural decrease,
populations will decline rapidly. So…
Rapid net migration increases are necessary to offset
population decreases to sustain demand and labour.
But the implications of this are changes in:
• Ethnic and cultural composition of the population.
• Geopolitical behaviour and power.
• Demand/supply patterns for goods and services.
• Availability and skillsets of labour.
• Income distribution – more inequality.
• Resource consumption patterns.
DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION