Transcript Slide 1

Introducing absolute return strategies
Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund
Friends Provident
International
This presentation is for
Professional Clients only
and is not for consumer use.
Current market environment – a fertile
ground for absolute return funds?
•
Choppy markets impacting returns from traditional
long-only funds
•
Low interest rates available on cash investments
•
Historically low yields from government bonds
Recent rise in number of absolute return products:
49% of the funds within the Morningstar Absolute Return
sector were launched since the beginning of 20071
1Source
© 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or
its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither
Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Data
based on Morningstar Offshore & International Funds Absolute Return Sector. First fund in sector was launched on 1 July 1994.
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What are absolute return funds designed
to deliver?
•
Absolute returns: they seek a positive absolute return for
investors irrespective of market conditions whereas
traditional funds aim to outperform relative to a
stockmarket or specific peer group
•
Risk diversification: invest in a wide range of global
assets (typically cash, equities and bonds)
•
Low correlation: combine number of uncorrelated
investment strategies to generate returns
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Historically more stable returns from
absolute return index vs. other indices
160
140
120
100
80
HFRX Absolute Return
MSCI World
Dow Jones Commodity
JP Morgan Global GBI
FTSE AW (Dev)/Real Estate
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
Source: Lipper to 31 May 2009. Performance on a total return basis in US$.
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Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund
Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund
A multi strategy approach for all market conditions
•
Combination of 2 principle investment strategies
Market neutral
strategy
Global macro
strategy
Invesco Global Absolute Return
Fund
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Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund
A multi strategy approach for all market conditions
•
Seeks to generate positive returns in up and down markets
•
Targets a return above inflation and above cash
•
Low correlation with traditional asset classes
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Low correlation with bond and equity markets
Simulated
90%
Actual
Rolling 24 months Performance:
60%
GARF
30%
MSCI World in
local currencies
JPM Global Bonds
in local currencies
0%
-30%
Rolling 24 months Correlation:
Overall equity correlation:
Overall bond correlation:
0.2
0.1
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Correlation
with equities
Correlation
with bonds
-1.0
Jan
94
Jan
95
Jan
96
Jan
97
Jan
98
Jan
99
Jan
00
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Simulated past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Source: Invesco as at 31 May 2009. Equities: MSCI World in local currencies; Bonds: JPM Global Bonds in local currencies.
Simulated returns for the period 12/1993 to 03/2008. The simulated (not live) performance results for GARF were achieved using
the Invesco Global Quantitative Equity stock selection model as well as Tactical Asset Allocation models. Currency is in EUR.
Performance data are gross of management fees and net of trading cost, including gross income reinvested.
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Market neutral strategy
Market neutral strategy
•
Quantitative model effectively screens thousands of stocks to
identify investment opportunities within global equity markets
•
Model looks at 4 factors to assess each stock:
—
Earnings momentum
—
Price trend
—
Management action
—
Relative value
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Investment strategy that seeks to generate returns from both
rising as well as falling stock prices
•
Removes a large degree of market exposure by creating two
different investment portfolios:
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—
Long portfolio: investment in stocks where the share price is expected to rise
—
Short portfolio: investment in stocks where the stock price is expected to fall
How does long/short investing work?
Generate returns both from rising stock prices and falling
stock prices
Total/
absolute
return
Price
Rises
Sell
Long
Long
Buy
Falls
Time
Open (sell)
Close (buy)
For illustrative purposes only.
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Short
Short
Global macro strategy
Global macro strategy
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Top-down analysis of global market trends and factors
that influence market movements
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Used to determine exposure to equities, government
bonds and currencies almost equally weighted
•
Regularly reviewed and rebalanced
•
Exposure achieved through use of highly liquid
financial instruments (futures)
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Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund
A-Shares
Performance (%)
6
4.2
4
5.3
3.7
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund A-Shares (Bloomberg: INVABSA LX)
-5.8
3 month Euribor
-8
1 Year
2008*
Annualised Periods
to 28 February 2009
1 year
2008
YTD (2009)
Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund (A-Shares)
-5.80%
5.30%
-10.54%
4.23%
3.73%
0.49%
-10.33%
1/57%
-11.03%
3 month Euribor
Excess return
Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Source: Bloomberg. Data as at 25 March 2009. *Since inception: 25 March 2008.
Performance figures are shown in Euros on a mid-to-mid basis, inclusive of gross reinvested income and net of the
annual management charge. The figures do not reflect the initial (sales) charge paid by individual investors.
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Reasons for YTD underperformance
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In Q2 2009 there was a rally in cyclical stocks and beaten
down financials, to which the fund had a negative
exposure: we believe this rally was a junk-rally - a rally in
stocks which are low quality, with poor balance sheets and weak
recent momentum
•
Our market-neutral selection model favours high quality
stocks: this strategy values companies with improving price and
earnings pattern and healthy balance sheets and valuations, and
was therefore at odds with the rally in the market and contributed
negatively to the fund
•
Sharp and speculative market reversals impacted our
global macro performance: trend reversals in equities, bonds
and currencies were captured by our model, but only with a time
lag. Coupled with unusually high currency and equity correlations
this strategy had a negative impact on the fund at the same time
as the market-neutral strategy
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Conclusion
•
As markets rationalise, we are confident that the predictive ability
of the fundamental and behavioural concepts used (earnings
momentum, price trend, management action and relative value)
will continue to add value over the long term and through full
market cycles
•
The A-rated1 Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund integrates two
long-standing, uncorrelated strategies seeking a low overall
correlation with bond and equity market
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Seeks to spread risk by investing across a globally diverse range
of assets, namely cash, equities and bonds
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Managed by experienced investment team comprising over 50
investment professionals2
1S&P
Fund Ratings as at 27 June 2009, Copyright© 2009 Standard & Poor’s, a
division of the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
2Source: Invesco as at 30 June 2009.
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Appendix
Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund
Profile of a Typical Investor
This Fund is suitable for experienced investors who are seeking capital appreciation over a 5 to 10 year timeframe
and are prepared to accept risk to their capital and higher volatility in the value of their investments. Although the
Fund has a cash benchmark, it should not be used as a substitute for traditional liquidity funds.
Objective and investment policy
The Fund will be managed with the objective of achieving in all market environments an absolute return in excess
of the return on Euro short-term money-market instruments through a combination of (i) a market neutral micro
economic strategy of taking long and short positions in global equities (“micro strategy”) where the long positions
may be held through a combination of direct investments and/or financial derivative instruments and where the
short positions are held through the use of financial derivative instruments and (ii) a global macro economic
strategy of taking long and short positions in global stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity index futures
(“macro strategy”). Short positions will be held through financial derivatives instruments.
The Investment Adviser will apply a fundamental and systematic approach to investing in global equities and
global stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity index futures. The Investment Adviser expects the
combination of macro and micro strategies to deliver a higher ratio of return to risk than the use of a single
strategy.
Financial derivative instruments used to achieve long and short positions may include (but are not limited to)
futures (including single stock futures), forwards, equity swaps and contracts for differences. The Fund may also
use financial derivative instruments for efficient portfolio management and hedging purposes.
The Fund may invest directly in cash, cash equivalents, money market instruments and debt securities (including
floating rate notes). Non-Euro investments are intended to be hedged back into Euro at the discretion of the
Investment Adviser. The Fund may through the use of financial derivative instruments hold gross long or short
positions of up to 290% of the Fund’s Net Asset Value and net long or short positions of up to 200% of the Fund’s
Net Asset Value. The total combined gross long and short positions through the use of financial derivative
instruments may not exceed 380% of the Fund’s Net Asset Value.
The global exposure of the Fund is measured using a Value-at-Risk calculation.
Source: Invesco. Simplified Prospectus dated 31 July 2008.
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Important information
This document is for Professional Clients only and is not for consumer use.
The value of investments and any income will fluctuate (this may partly be the result of exchange rate fluctuations) and
investors may not get back the full amount invested.
Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Where the GQE Team has expressed views and opinions, these may change.
The investment strategy and risks inherent in the Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund are not typically encountered in
traditional long only funds. The Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund will use derivatives as part of its investment strategy
and such investments are inherently volatile and the fund could potentially be exposed to additional risks and costs should
the market move against it. In extreme market conditions, the Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund may be faced with
theoretically unlimited losses. Such extreme market conditions could mean that investors could, in certain circumstances,
face minimal or no returns, or may even suffer a loss, on such investments.
The distribution and the offering of funds in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law. Persons into whose possession this
document may come are required to inform themselves about and to comply with any relevant restrictions. This does not
constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not authorised or to any person to
whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation.
Persons interested in acquiring funds should inform themselves as to (i) the legal requirements in the countries of their
nationality, residence, ordinary residence or domicile; (ii) any foreign exchange controls; and (iii) any relevant tax
consequences.
The Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund is not registered under any US securities law, and may not be offered or sold in the
USA, its territories or possessions, nor to any US persons. The Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund is not offered for sale in
any jurisdiction in which the Invesco Global Absolute Return Fund is not authorised to be publicly sold. The Invesco Global
Absolute Return Fund is available only in jurisdictions where its/their promotion and sale is permitted.
For the purposes of UK law, funds are recognised schemes under section 264 of the Financial Services & Markets Act 2000
apart from the Invesco Absolute Return Fund, which is an unregulated collective investment scheme in the UK and therefore
cannot be promoted to retail clients in the UK.
The protections provided by the UK regulatory system, for the protection of retail clients, do not apply to offshore
investments. Compensation under the UK’s Financial Services Compensation Scheme will not be available and UK cancellation
rights do not apply.
Further information is available from Invesco Global Investment Funds Limited using the contact details below.
Invesco Global Investment Funds Limited
30 Finsbury Square, London, EC2A 1AG UK.
Website: www.Invescointernational.co.uk
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority
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42101 GR/SS 24/07/09