Transcript 2012 Transit Elections: Results & Trends

Transit Election Trends:
a look back at Election 2013 +
ahead to 2014
November 12, 2013
Washington, DC
Today’s Speakers
• Jason Jordan, Director, Center for
Transportation Excellence
• Matt Leow, Senior Consultant, M+R
Strategic Services
• Kate Whiting, Field Director,
Transportation Choices Coalition
• Andrew Austin, Director, Americans for
Transit
2013 Results:
15 Measures
10 Wins – 4 Losses – 1 Pending
71.1% Approval Rate
Transit Ballot Measures
Main Cycle 2000-2012
70
62
60
50
57
56
Avg = 47
49
48
2006
2008
41
40
32
30
20
10
Transit Ballot Measures
Off Cycle 2001 - 2013
0
2000
2002
2004
2010
2012
30
28
24
25
20
15
Avg = 18
18
17
15
14
11
10
5
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Ballot Measure Success Rate 2000 - 2013 (YTD)
90%
82%
83%
77%
80%
79%
79%
73%
71%
70%
77%
68%
65%
66%
71%
60%
51%
50%
46%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Series1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
YTD
68%
46%
51%
71%
82%
83%
65%
66%
77%
73%
77%
79%
79%
71%
Transit Ballot Measure Approval Rate
Recession & Recovery (2008 - 2013 YTD)
80%
78%
79%
77%
79%
77%
76%
74%
73%
72%
71%
2008 – 2013 Avg. Win Rate: 76%
2013 Win % w/ Tulsa Victory: 73.3%
70%
68%
66%
Series1
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 YTD
77%
73%
77%
79%
79%
71%
Types of Ballot Measures
Advisory
3%
Vehicle
Fee
3%
Other
2%
Other
RTA 6%
6%
Bond
11%
Sales Tax
42%
Property
Tax
39%
2000 - 2012
Sales Tax
23%
Bond
18%
Property
Tax
47%
2013
Election Day isn’t Over
‘Improve Our Tulsa’ Ballot Measure
$919 million capital improvement package
Extends existing 1.1% sales tax and $355 million bond package
$30 million for transit
$24 million for bike / ped
Tulsa County to vote in Spring ‘14
Center for Transportation Excellence
2013 CAMPAIGN SUMMARIES
Michigan
4 Elections in 2013
Kalamazoo County – Property Tax Renewal
Escanaba Township – Property Tax
Wells Township – Property Tax
Schoolcraft County – Property Tax Increase
Wins in Kalamazoo Co., Schoolcraft Co.
Losses in Wells and Escanaba Townships
Washington
Grays Harbor
YES: 71%
NO: 29%
Okanogan
YES: 56%
NO: 44%
0.1% Sales tax increase in Grays Harbor County Passes; Restores
significant service cuts
0.4% Sales tax established to create the Okanogan County Transit
Authority
Ohio
Lake County approves a dedicated, permanent
sales tax set aside (.25%) for LakeTran
Lorain County defeats .04 mill property tax
increase for local transit service (41% - 59%)
Perrysburg approves .08 mill, 5-year property
tax. Voted in 2012 to leave the regional transit
authority. Second measure to fund local
service; first (larger) measure defeated. (72% 28%)
Spencer Township votes again on TARTA.
Narrowly votes to leave the system. Similar
measure defeated in ‘12.
North Carolina
Raleigh, NC approves $75 million bond initiative for
transportation projects.
Spotlight remains on Wake County in 2014 with a potential
sales tax initiative for transit joining neighboring Orange
and Durham Counties.
YES: 70%
NO: 30%
Montana
YES: 57%
NO:43%
Property tax increases passes in
Missoula for
the Mountain Line.
Colorado
Nederland, CO passes property
tax measure to create Nederland
Eco Pass improvement district
with free transit service.
YES: 55%
NO: 45%
Statewide school reform and tax
measure fails.
Transit advocates ponder
options, including a statewide
transportation measure, for
2014.
Maine
Statewide $100 million transportation
bond package
One of five bond measures approved
by voters; won with the largest
margin
Multimodal initiative
YES: 72%
NO: 28%
Center for Transportation Excellence
CASE STUDY: FRIENDS OF
MOUNTAIN LINE (MISSOULA, MT)
Background on the Missoula Urban
Transportation District (MUTD)
Operates Mountain Line, Missoula’s community bus
service – 12 fixed routes, para-transit service, senior
van, vanpool.
Created by voters in 1976. Nov. 2013 was the first time
MUTD has placed a mill levy request before voters
since then.
New improvements: wi-fi, 3-bike racks, phone app.
Setting ridership records the last several years, nearly 1
million rides.
MUTD Budget
Planning for Expanded Service
• 2011-2012 Comprehensive Operational
Analysis and development of 5 phase plan.
• Focused on increasing ridership by creating:
– Higher-frequency service on key routes
– Late evening service
– Senior van and paratransit approaching capacity.
• Phases 2 through 5 would require new money
The Campaign – Stage 1:
Assessing the Community
• 60 one-on-one community interviews
• Public opinion research/community survey
FINDINGS:
• Mountain Line is a trusted community partner.
• Broad (but not intense) support for a levy:
– 61% support (27% strong, 34% weak)
– 36% against (19% strong, 17% weak)
The Campaign – Stage 2:
Positioning for Success
• 35th Anniversary in 2013 – begun year-long
promotion of Mountain Line’s 35 years of
community bus service to build goodwill.
• Strategic communications throughout 2013:
– Outreach at community events, earned and paid
media
– Partnerships, prizes, etc.
The Campaign – Stage 3:
Vote FOR Our Bus and Missoula’s Future
• Friends of Mountain Line ballot committee.
• Treasurer and steering committee.
• Strategy – direct voter contact for voter ID &
GOTV using traditional and new online tools.
• Key partners – MontPIRG, Montana
Conservation Voters.
Community Endorsements
BUSINESSES AND ORGANIZATIONS
ASUM Office of Transportation
American Public Transportation Association
Bike/Walk Alliance for Missoula
Community Medical Center
Draught Works Brewery
GCS
Homeword
Missoula Area Central Labor Council
Missoula Area Chamber of Commerce
Missoula Community Food Co-op
Missoula County Democrats
Missoula Downtown Association
Montana Chapter of the Sierra Club
Montana Conservation Voters
Montana Public Interest Research Group (MontPIRG)
Montana Women Vote
M+R Strategic Services
North-Missoula Community Development Corporation
Opportunity Resources, Inc.
pLAND Land Use Consulting
Providence St. Patrick Hospital
Southgate Mall
Teamsters Local Union No. 2
Western Montana Mental Health Center
INDIVIDUALS
John Engen, Mayor
Congressman Pat Williams (ret.)
Asa Hohman, President, Associated Students of the University
of Montana
Rep. Bryce Bennett
Rep. Jen Gursky
Rep. Ellie Hill
Rep. Nancy Wilson
Rep. Carolyn Squires
Sen. Carol Williams (ret.)
Sen. Sue Malek
Jason Wiener, City Council, Ward 1
Dave Strohmaier, City Council, Ward 1
Cynthia Wolken, City Council, Ward 2
Alex Taft, City Council, Ward 3
Caitlin Copple, City Council, Ward 4
Jordan Hess, City Council candidate
Bryan von Lossberg, City Council candidate
Emily Bentley, City Council candidate
Andrea Davis
Anne M. Breum D.M.D., P.C
Daniel Kemmis (former Mayor)
Elaine Hawk
Ellen Buchanan
Jack Chambers
Key Media Coverage
“Reward Mountain Line service, support mill
levy” – Missoulian Editorial
“Business leaders support Mountain Line mill
levy request” -- by Todd Frank (MDA) and Tim
Winger (Mall)
“Endorsement: Vote “Yes” on Mountain Line
Mill Levy” – Missoula Independent
Get Out the Vote!
•
•
•
•
Mail Ballot – Two Weeks
Urban Core Voters
ID List of 14,000 +
GOTV focused on ID’ed voters, Model Voters,
Pledges and MCV Lists (members)
• Tracking of ID’ed daily. Our voter outperformed
average voters by nearly 10 percentage points
• Phone Calls carried the day.
Election Results—Nov. 5
•
•
•
•
Mill Levy passes with 57% of the vote
Wins in 5 out of 6 City Wards
Strong support in the urban core
Overall voter turnout 42% = avg. of municipal
vote-by-mail elections
Center for Transportation Excellence
CASE STUDY: WASHINGTON
CAMPAIGNS
Center for Transportation Excellence
PREVIEW OF ELECTION 2014
Upcoming Webinars
January 14, 2014
Getting Ready for the Ballot
February 18, 2014
Funding Your Campaign
March 25, 2014
Making Friends for Transit Investment
Register at www.cfte.org/six-stops
Questions?
Jason Jordan
Director, CFTE
[email protected]
@jasonljordan
www.cfte.org
Thanks to our cosponsor