Transcript School Enrollment Projections

Wisconsin High School Graduate Projections
Presentation for the
University of Wisconsin System
March 13, 2008
Richelle Winkler & Collin Payne
State of Wisconsin: High School Graduate History and Projections, 2001-2019
75,000
73,000
71,000
69,000
67,000
65,000
63,000
61,000
59,000
57,000
20
19
20
18
20
17
20
16
20
15
20
14
20
13
20
12
20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
55,000
How do APL projections compare to WICHE?
75,000
73,000
71,000
69,000
67,000
65,000
63,000
61,000
59,000
57,000
55,000
1999
2000 2001 2002
2003 2004 2005
WICHE 1996
2006 2007 2008
WICHE 2003
2009 2010 2011
APL 2000
2012 2013 2014
APL 2008
2015 2016 2017
Observed Graduates
2018
Why are graduates projected to decline?
K-12 School Enrollment
is declining.
Between 2001-2006,
69% of school
districts declined.
Age structure of K-12
students is older.
Births in Wisconsin
were low in 1990s
and early 2000s.
Wisconsin’s K-12 School Enrollment, Fall 2006
12
76,258
11
79,630
10
78,559
9
81,588
8
75,447
Grade
7
73,922
6
71,582
5
70,902
4
69,878
3
70,020
2
70,332
1
71,713
K
40,000
71,298
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
Number of Students Enrolled
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
Births to Wisconsin Mothers, 1980-2011
78,000
76,000
74,000
72,000
70,000
68,000
66,000
64,000
62,000
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
60,000
Wisconsin Births by Race/Ethnicity, 1990-2006
74,000
72,000
70,000
68,000
66,000
64,000
62,000
60,000
58,000
56,000
54,000
52,000
50,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Non-Hispanic White Births
1999
2000
2001
Total Births
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Wisconsin Workforce
Development Areas
Projected % Change in Graduates by WDA, 2006-2012
4%
Southeast
1.8%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Fox Valley
-3.6%
-6%
Milwaukee
-4.6%
WOW
-4.5%
Southwest
-5.0%
-8%
-10%
Bay Area
-8.4%
South Central
-8.8%
North Central
-10.0%
Western
-10.5%
-12%
-14%
-16%
-18%
West Central
-8.1%
Northwest
-16.3%
Projected Change in
High School Graduates
2006-2012
High School Graduate Projections by Sex, 2001-2019
37,000
36,000
35,000
34,000
33,000
32,000
31,000
30,000
29,000
Female Graduates
Male Graduates
20
19
20
18
20
17
20
16
20
15
20
14
20
13
20
12
20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
28,000
Public High School Graduate Projections by Race/Ethnicity
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
African American
2010
2011
Hispanic
2012
2013
2014
2015
Asian/Pacific Islander
2016
2017
2018
American Indian
2019
The proportion of graduates who are persons of color is
increasing
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
91.0%
89.0%
82.3%
80.1%
77.7%
5.7%
8.4%
10.7%
6.4%
7.0%
6.7%
6.5%
2006
2011
2016
2019
85.1%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2.0%
4.0%
2.6%
4.8%
1991
2001
African American
3.9%
Hispanic
Asian/PI
AIAN
NH White
Wisconsin Age Wisconsin
Structure
by Race/Ethnicity
Age Structure, 2006
85
80
75
Male
Female
70
65
60
55
Age
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
Non-Hispanic White Persons
0.5%
1.0%
Persons of Color
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Public High School Graduation Rates by Race/Ethnicity
100%
2002
90%
2003
2004
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Public Total
African American
Hispanic
Asian/PI
AIAN
NH White
Public High School Graduation Rates by Sex and Race/Ethnicity, 2003
100%
Female
Male
89.6%
88.7%
90%
82.8%
81.7%
80%
73.2%
70%
66.3%
60%
56.3%
56.0%
50%
44.8%
40%
39.0%
30%
20%
10%
0%
African American
Hispanic
Asian
AIAN
NH White
Plans to Pursue a College Education by Race/Ethnicity
60.0%
55.0%
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1997
1998
African American
1999
2000
Hispanic
2001
2002
Asian/PI
2003
2004
AIAN
2005
NH White
2006
Plans to Pursue a College Education by WDA
70.0%
65.0%
WOW
64%
Average % planning to attend college
60.0%
55.0%
Fox Valley
51%
50.0%
South Central
50%
North Central
48%
45.0%
Northwest
42%
Bay Area
48%
Southwest South47%
east
47% West Central
45%
Western
44%
Milwaukee
47%
40.0%
35.0%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Average number planning to attend college
4,000
5,000
6,000
Summary Points
 Peak numbers 2008, then projected decline
 Similar trends for males and females overall
 Similar for different race/ethnic groups, except
Hispanics who will see substantial increase
 Changing race/ethnic make-up of population under
18 will likely introduce new challenges and
opportunities
Wisconsin’s Public School Enrollment: Past, Present, Future