Transcript Novato’s PPT Template

Update on Results of FY11-12 Work Plan
Activities
Presentation to the NETAC
Policy and Technical Committees
Sue Kemball-Cook and Greg Yarwood
June 13, 2013
[email protected]
Template
HRVOC Study in Sabine Industrial District
• Solar Occultation Flux (SOF) method used to
– Measure emission fluxes of ethene and propene (kg/hr)
– Show HRVOC plume locations and suggest source locations
• May 1-11, 2012
• ENVIRON reported on study at June, 2012 NETAC meetings
Ethene Emissions
Propene Emissions
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Study Follow-up
• Eastman, Westlake and Flint Hills reviewed
operations for May 1-11
– No upsets for Westlake and Flint Hills
– May 7 at 11 pm until 2 am on May 8: Eastman flaring
upset released 588 lbs of ethene
 Event began after the completion of the SOF traverse that
recorded the high values of ethene
– May 9 at 10:30 am to May 11 at 7 am: Eastman plant
shutdown flaring event released 2,624 lbs propene
 Successful measurement of this episode of high propene
emissions confirms that the SOF method is able to detect HRVOC
emissions due to upset events
• Eastman provided NETAC with interim 2011 emission
estimates to be superseded by 2011 data officially
submitted to TCEQ
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Estimates of Ethene and Propene Emissions
• Typical day Eastman Complex emissions of ethene are underestimated in current
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emission inventories
Propene emissions estimates in current inventories are greatly underestimated
There are episodes of emissions of ethene and propene that are higher by a factor of two
than the typical day emissions
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Haynesville Shale Emission Inventory Update
• >3,000 Haynesville
wells currently
producing
– Exceeds the most
aggressive projection
• Sharp decline in
development since
2010
– Current drilling activity
below lowest
projection
• Expanded geographic
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area
NETAC inventory,
developed in 2009,
required an update
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Emission Inventory Development
• Sent survey to
Haynesville producers
– Chesapeake, Penn
Virginia and XTO
responded
• 2011 base year
• Projected rig and well
counts to for 2012-2020
for three scenarios
• Estimated production
using well decline curves
derived from TRRC and
LDNR data
• Estimated emissions
accounting for on-thebooks emission controls
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Moderate Scenario Emissions
NOx Emissions (tpd)
VOC Emissions (tpd)
• Estimates of 2012 NOx emissions ranged from 32-50 tpd
• Estimates of 2020 NOx emissions ranged from 25-149 tpd
• Even at a slow pace of development, the Haynesville Shale continues to
be a significant source of emissions that can affect ozone in Northeast
Texas
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Heavy-Duty Truck Idling Study
• During layovers, long-haul HDDV truck drivers park their truck
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with the engine on (idling)
Extended idling releases ozone precursor emissions from diesel
fuel combustion
TCEQ requested that the Near Non-Attainment Areas provide
data on extended truck idling activity in their areas
– Extended idling restriction is one of the few remaining on-road
emission reduction strategies that can be enacted at the local level
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Method
• Identified major extended idling sites in 5-county
area
– Longitude and latitude, heavy-truck parking capacity
• Conducted on-site observations of idling trucks
during late August 2012
– Parking spot occupancy and idling rates at various times of
the day
– Site samples at various times of day during midday and
overnight periods
• Developed profiles of extended idling activity for
inclusion in the TCEQ’s on-road mobile source
inventory
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Results
• Visited 14 extended idling
sites multiple times from
August 23-26, 2012
• Magnitude of idling hours for
Gregg and Harrison is larger
in the current TCEQ 2012
inventory than was observed
during August 2012
– Truck stop closures since 2004
study on which the TCEQ
inventory is based
– Lower idling rates per parking
space observed by ENVIRON
than in 2004 study
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Ozone Modeling
• Developed 2006 ozone model from inputs provided by the
•
TCEQ to the NNAs
Model has an overall high bias in Northeast Texas during
transport episodes and stagnant periods
– Texas border monitors consistently overestimate ozone
 Suggests transport in Texas is generally overestimated
• Test sensitivity to model updates aimed at improving model
performance
– The TCEQ provided two new WRF meteorological runs aimed at
improving performance over Northeast Texas
– CAMx model version v5.40->v5.41
– Updated chemical mechanism from CB6 to CB6r1
– Revised emission inventory from TCEQ
 More detailed emissions source categories for source apportionment
modeling
– Day-specific wildfire emissions
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Summary of June 2006 Model Performance
Evaluation
Tyler
• Tests with largest impact were Cb6r1 and new TCEQ
emission inventory
• Both generally increased the model’s high bias. Further
work is required to understand the causes of the high bias
in both the revised 2005 and 2006 model.
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2006 Ozone Source Apportionment Modeling
• For all three monitors,
Contribution of Local Emissions to Longview Ozone
transport exceeds
local contribution
• Contribution from
sources outside the
U.S. and from the
stratosphere ~20 ppb
• The local contribution
ranges from 8.5 ppb
(Karnack) to 17 ppb
(Longview)
• EGUs, on-road mobile
and oil and gas are
largest components of
local contribution
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May-June 2005 Ozone Model
1-hour Average Ozone at the Longview Monitor
• Adapted NETAC’s existing 2005 ozone model to use the new
TCEQ June 2006 modeling platform
– Take advantage of updates to the ozone model and its inputs
– Retain day-specific emissions and 2005 meteorology and make rest
of inputs consistent with 2006 model
• Move to new modeling platform increased the high bias in the
2005 model.
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Gas Compressor Engine Study
• Update NETAC’s existing emission inventory for
gas compressor engines within the 5-county area
of Northeast Texas and Panola County
• Available engine data were reviewed in order to
revise the engine horsepower distribution in the
NETAC inventory that was based on 2005 and
2007 survey data gathered by Pollution Solutions
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Method
• Reviewed engine test reports collected by TCEQ’s Tyler
office
– Compressor engines in Northeast Texas subject to the East
Texas Combustion Rule and New Source Performance
Standards (NSPS) Subpart JJJJ
• Researched other available data to characterize the
population of Northeast Texas compressor engines
• Reviewed gas compressor engine data from TCEQ’s Special
Inventory of oil and gas production sources in the Barnett
Shale
• Sensitivity testing to evaluate the effect of assumptions on
horsepower and well count distribution on the Northeast
Texas gas compressor engine population
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Sensitivity Test Results
• Findings suggest that the number of engine tests of ≥240
HP reported to TCEQ in 2011 under the East Texas
Combustion Rule is smaller than expected
• Possible shift in the engine population towards lower
horsepower (< 240 HP) or to lean burn engines
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Current Status of Gas Compressor Engine Emission
Inventory
• Pollutions Solution inventory for gas compressor engines in
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Northeast Texas was developed before recent emissions
regulations (East Texas Combustion, NSPS JJJJ)
The TCEQ is currently developing an emission inventory for the
year 2011
– Accounts for the East Texas Combustion Rule
– Applies engine population data for the Barnett Shale to all 33 East
Texas counties affected by the East Texas Combustion Rule
– Not known if current Northeast Texas engine population is similar to
that of the Barnett Shale
• The review of engine data showed that there is no publicly
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available source of engine population data for Northeast Texas
Comprehensive, recent data on engine population is critical for
the development of an accurate emission inventory
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Other Reports
• Conceptual Model Update through 2011
– SOF Study plume location and emission inventory
comparison
– Emission trends
– Ambient data analysis, high ozone day discussion
– Modeling results
• Development of day-specific fire emissions for
2005 and 2006 ozone models
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