Transcript Demographic Explanations for Israeli Hawkishness

Demographic Explanations for Israeli
Hawkishness
Bivariate Presentation
POL 242
2008 Student
Rationale
 Importance of Israeli/Palestinian conflict
 Work in other courses and earlier assignments
 Desire to understand effect of conflict on young people
Data Set
 Israel 2003 Data Set
 N = 475
Dependant Variable: Hawkishness
 “Hawkishness” measures right wing views on national
security
 Created Index
 Creation of Palestinian State
 Negotiation even if Terror Persists
 Diplomacy vs. Force
 Belief the conflict will end
 Labour or Likud on security
 Alpha = .85
Independent Variable: Age
 Coded into 3 categories:
 Under 30 (29.3%)
 30 to 54 (46.7%)
 55 and Older (24%)
Hypothesis
 X = Age
 Y = Hawkishness
 X Y
 As people get older they hold more hawkish views on
national security
 Young soldiers
 Optimism
 Left/Right political support
Hawkishness by Age
Hawkishness
Age
Under 30
30 to 54
55 to 60
Low
26%
38%
30%
Medium
29%
30%
35.5%
High
45%
32%
35%
N
134
214
110
• TauB = -.0637
• Significance of Chi-square = .0777
Preliminary Conclusions
 Extremely weak negative relationship between Age and
Hawkishness
 Not statistically significant
 Confirms Null Hypothesis
 Explanations for negative result
 Service in IDF
 Separate Education
 Garfinkle: Politics and Society in Modern Israel
New Independent Variable: Religion
 Coded into 4 categories:
 Secular (50.1%)
 Traditional (33.0%)
 Religious (12.1%)
 Haredi (4.8%)
New Hypothesis
 X = Religiosity
 Y = Hawkishness
 X Y
 More religious Israelis will hold more Hawkish views on
National Security
 Religious Connection to Land
 Lack of Flexibility
Hawkishness by Religiosity
Hawkishness
Religiosity
Secular
Traditional
Religious
Haredi
Low
42.2%
30.1%
8.9%
Medium
31.9%
33.3%
30.4%
4.5%
High
25.9%
36.6%
60.7%
95.5%
N
232
153
56
22
• TauC = .28
• Significance of Chi-Square = 0.000
• One-Way ANOVA: secular and traditional distinct,
Religious and Haredi are not
Conclusions
 Confirms hypothesis - moderately strong relationship
between Hawkishnes and Religiosity.
 Statistically Significant
 Haredi and Religious do not differ significantly, but Secular,
Traditional and Religious do
 Extremely high hawkishness among Haredi
 Exemption from conscription (Israel Since 1980, Ben-Porat et al)
Future Questions
 Age and Hawkishness
 Specific Israeli conditions or military service?
 Religion and Hawkishness
 Specific to Israel or generalizable?
 Lebanon war vs. controlling “greater Israel”
Appendix: Syntax
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*code and test index*
missing values A19 (4)
recode A12 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into PalSt
recode A14 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into Negot
recode A19 (1=0)(2=1) into TlkFrce
recode A20 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into ConfEnd
recode A48 (1=1)(2=0)(3=.5) into LabLik
recode A49
(1=1)(2=.83)(3=.66)(4=.5)(5=.33)(6=.16)(7=0) into
Right
RELIABILITY
/VARIABLES=PalSt Negot TlkFrce ConfEnd LabLik
Right
/SCALE(all) ALL
/SUMMARY=all
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compute rawindex =
PalSt+Negot+TlkFrce+ConfEnd+LabLik+Right
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recode rawindex (0 thru 2.32 = 1)(2.33 thru 4.31 =
2)(4.32 thru 6 = 3) into hawk
value labels hawk 1'low'2'moderate'3'high'.
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*Hawkishness vs. Age*
crosstab tables=hawk by AGE
/cells=column count /statistics=BTAU chisq
oneway hawk by AGE(1,3)
/ranges=scheffe /statistics = all
*Hawkishness vs. Religiosity*
crosstab tables=hawk by B91
/cells=column count /statistics=CTAU chisq
oneway hawk by B91(1,4)
/ranges=scheffe /statistics = all