Demographic Explanations for Israeli Hawkishness
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Transcript Demographic Explanations for Israeli Hawkishness
Demographic Explanations for Israeli
Hawkishness
Bivariate Presentation
POL 242
2008 Student
Rationale
Importance of Israeli/Palestinian conflict
Work in other courses and earlier assignments
Desire to understand effect of conflict on young people
Data Set
Israel 2003 Data Set
N = 475
Dependant Variable: Hawkishness
“Hawkishness” measures right wing views on national
security
Created Index
Creation of Palestinian State
Negotiation even if Terror Persists
Diplomacy vs. Force
Belief the conflict will end
Labour or Likud on security
Alpha = .85
Independent Variable: Age
Coded into 3 categories:
Under 30 (29.3%)
30 to 54 (46.7%)
55 and Older (24%)
Hypothesis
X = Age
Y = Hawkishness
X Y
As people get older they hold more hawkish views on
national security
Young soldiers
Optimism
Left/Right political support
Hawkishness by Age
Hawkishness
Age
Under 30
30 to 54
55 to 60
Low
26%
38%
30%
Medium
29%
30%
35.5%
High
45%
32%
35%
N
134
214
110
• TauB = -.0637
• Significance of Chi-square = .0777
Preliminary Conclusions
Extremely weak negative relationship between Age and
Hawkishness
Not statistically significant
Confirms Null Hypothesis
Explanations for negative result
Service in IDF
Separate Education
Garfinkle: Politics and Society in Modern Israel
New Independent Variable: Religion
Coded into 4 categories:
Secular (50.1%)
Traditional (33.0%)
Religious (12.1%)
Haredi (4.8%)
New Hypothesis
X = Religiosity
Y = Hawkishness
X Y
More religious Israelis will hold more Hawkish views on
National Security
Religious Connection to Land
Lack of Flexibility
Hawkishness by Religiosity
Hawkishness
Religiosity
Secular
Traditional
Religious
Haredi
Low
42.2%
30.1%
8.9%
Medium
31.9%
33.3%
30.4%
4.5%
High
25.9%
36.6%
60.7%
95.5%
N
232
153
56
22
• TauC = .28
• Significance of Chi-Square = 0.000
• One-Way ANOVA: secular and traditional distinct,
Religious and Haredi are not
Conclusions
Confirms hypothesis - moderately strong relationship
between Hawkishnes and Religiosity.
Statistically Significant
Haredi and Religious do not differ significantly, but Secular,
Traditional and Religious do
Extremely high hawkishness among Haredi
Exemption from conscription (Israel Since 1980, Ben-Porat et al)
Future Questions
Age and Hawkishness
Specific Israeli conditions or military service?
Religion and Hawkishness
Specific to Israel or generalizable?
Lebanon war vs. controlling “greater Israel”
Appendix: Syntax
*code and test index*
missing values A19 (4)
recode A12 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into PalSt
recode A14 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into Negot
recode A19 (1=0)(2=1) into TlkFrce
recode A20 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into ConfEnd
recode A48 (1=1)(2=0)(3=.5) into LabLik
recode A49
(1=1)(2=.83)(3=.66)(4=.5)(5=.33)(6=.16)(7=0) into
Right
RELIABILITY
/VARIABLES=PalSt Negot TlkFrce ConfEnd LabLik
Right
/SCALE(all) ALL
/SUMMARY=all
compute rawindex =
PalSt+Negot+TlkFrce+ConfEnd+LabLik+Right
recode rawindex (0 thru 2.32 = 1)(2.33 thru 4.31 =
2)(4.32 thru 6 = 3) into hawk
value labels hawk 1'low'2'moderate'3'high'.
*Hawkishness vs. Age*
crosstab tables=hawk by AGE
/cells=column count /statistics=BTAU chisq
oneway hawk by AGE(1,3)
/ranges=scheffe /statistics = all
*Hawkishness vs. Religiosity*
crosstab tables=hawk by B91
/cells=column count /statistics=CTAU chisq
oneway hawk by B91(1,4)
/ranges=scheffe /statistics = all