Presentation USC ETTC

Hawaii’s Hi-Tech Summit 2001

Workshop on Promoting Business Development in Technology

Ken Dozier NASA Far West RTTC 9/12/01

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The Future “When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight”

Jack Welch, Chairmen General Electric USC ETTC 2

Velocity

“ According to Silicon Valley CEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech items they manufacture today did not exist 10 months ago” Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency USC ETTC “Startups are now expected to go public within 6 18 months after venture investment” Donna Jensen, Founder and CEO of startups.com

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1

st

Perspective

•

Knowledge is a New Kind of Asset

– The foundation of industrialized economy is shifting from natural resources to intellectual assets (Hansen 99) (Davis 98) – Knowledge assets are viewed as factors of production that may be more important than traditional resources of capital, labor and land. (Davis 98) – Converging technologies and rapid innovations can transform markets Overnight . Administrative systems no longer provide the underpinnings of value creation. (Teece 98) – Reward goes to those who are good a sensing and seizing opportunities. Dynamic capabilities are most likely to be resident in firms that are

highly entrepreneurial

. (Teece 98) 4 USC ETTC

USC ETTC

Global Competition

• 3 Finland • 4 Luxembourg •5 Netherlands •6 Hong Kong •7 Ireland •8 Sweden •9 Canada •10 Switzerland

Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International

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What is Knowledge ?

Truth

Universal No Debate Effect

Knowledge

Social

Belief

Personal Converge on debate Diverge on debate Cause Cause 10 Philosophical Mistakes (Adler 85) 6 USC ETTC

The Future

“Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all future scientific advances” Lee De Forest, Radio Pioneer, 1957 “where ... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons” - Popular Mechanics, 1949 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home” - Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 “This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us” - Western Union, Internal memo, 1876 “The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it” - New York Times, 1949 “I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ” - Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995 7 USC ETTC

Business Taxonomy •

Knowledge Taxonomies (Teece 98)

– Tacit (Social) / Codified (Explicit) – Observable[product] / Not Observable[process] – Positive (Failures)/ Negative (Successes) – Autonomous (Stand Alone)/ Systematic (Part of a System) – Protected (Patent, TM, CW) /Not Protected (Trade Secret) 8 USC ETTC

Industry Clusters

(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995) USC ETTC 9

The Evolution of Industry

(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)

Motion Pictures Aviation Electronics Defense Aviation Automobile Manufacturing Food Processing Agriculture Theme Parks Motion Pictures Television Computer Peripherals Defense Instruments Defense Aerospace Commercial Aviation Metal Products General Manufacturing Information Processing Theme Parks/ Tourism Visual Media Production Professional Services Multimedia Technology Engineering Services Technology-Based Manufacturing General Manufacturing Information Processing Business Services

10 USC ETTC

2nd Perspective

•

Entrepreneurship Super Normal Wealth Creator

– Business Environments Have Become Hypercompetitive because of the High Magnitude and Velocity of Interfirm Rivalries (D’Aveni, 94) – Innovations in Products, Services, Business Processes, and Organizational Designs are Creating Dramatic Discontinuities in Product- Market Spaces and Disrupting the Traditional Approaches to Competitive Strategies and Business Conduct (Christensen, 97) – In the Short Run, Entrepreneurial Firms Reaps Supernormal Returns (Create Wealth) as Established Incumbents and Rivals Seek to Understand the Competitive Disruptions in their Market Space.(Christensen 97) – Thus Competition Occurs in the Form of a Series of Market Disruption Moves by New Entrants or Entrepreneurial Firms and Efforts by Incumbents and Rivals to Shape Their Response Actions (Young et al 96) 11 USC ETTC

Make & Sell vs Sense & Respond

Chabol

(large companies) hierarchy, products based, (push)

Federal Agencies, SBIR

: Mission Based, Linear (push)

Universities

: Curiosity Based, emerging, (push) USC ETTC Incubators and Science Parks created to bridge gap between development and commercialization

Venture

: Niche markets, public trading (pull) Chart Source: Corporate Information Systems, Applegate 12

Traditional Entrepreneurship Sung USC ETTC Typical Waterfall model Six Stages basic research, development research, product and process ideas, prototype, production, diffusion Criticisms Too much focus on the solution “push” basic research not the only initiator stage relationship between research and commercialization is too complex to be linear Users are the key “pull” to the problems and markets 13

New Non-Linear Model

2001 study of startup companies across:

Software telecom (35%), Bio-med (19%), Computers (16%), and Semi-conductors (10.8%)

Most innovation at

application stage (55%), development ( 22%), research (12%) production (9%)

Age:

Linear older ( 35-45), non linear (25-35)

Education:

Linear more (28%P,42%M,30%B), Non Linear (7.5%P, 22%M,67%B)

Experience:

Linear narrower (59% research, 35% commerce), Nonlinear (37% research, 29% commerce, 17% education)

Both groups agreed on success factors:

business plan , leadership, technical skills, management skills, and location 14 USC ETTC

The Non-Linear

Drivers Gates “

Microsoft”

Jobs “

Apple”

Clark Clark “

SGI”

“

Netscape”

Developers Xerox Xerox E&S, Stanford University of Illinois

15 USC ETTC

Market Redefinition:Radical Change

USC ETTC Seven Organizational Change Propositions, Venkatraman 1994 16

RTTC Focus:Discovery

USC ETTC Zmud 2001 17

3rd

Perspective

• • • • • • Entrepreneurial Firms Represent a New Online Community Network computing, supported by advanced communications infrastructure, can facilitate collaborative entrepreneuralism (Teece 98) Successful business models set themselves apart in their communication design leading to a deconstruction of traditional value chains and the emergence of value Webs. (Lechner 01) The most critical factor for a venture business success is how to implement and commercialize lab-based technology/knowledge/ideas into actual products and/or services (Sung 01) Entrepreneurial firms use knowledge to reshape clusters of assets in distinctive and unique combinations to serve ever changing customer needs. (Teece 98) The key sources of wealth creation at the dawn of the new millennium will lie with new enterprise formation. (Teece 98) 18 USC ETTC

Online Community

Community = Set of Agents + Medium Agents = user groups Medium = Internet Subscribers Netiquette Self Organized Non-Commercial Culture Communities - Business Models and System Architectures: The Blueprint of MP3.com, Napster and Gnutella Revisited, Lechner 19 USC ETTC

Components of a Medium

Knowledge Intention Communities - Business Models and System Architectures: The Blueprint of MP3.com, Napster and Gnutella Revisited, Lechner 20 USC ETTC

Evidence from Practice

• Secondary Market Research as practiced by expert communities may be not be producing market knowledge fast enough or broad enough for modern high velocity markets – Market analysis of existing markets was not encouraging • A KMS that uses IT to gather primary market information rapidly, facilitates the complex transformation between basic research (IP) and commercialization (Wealth) – – Online research for potential markets has changed the lens MOB/WOB community is rich with profitable SMEs 21 USC ETTC

MULTI-CHANNEL SPATIALIZATION SYSTEM FOR AUDIO SIGNALS U.S. patent 5,438,623 (August 1, 1995) PROBLEM ADDRESSED

separation of auditory inputs by simulation of different source locations

TECHNICAL APPROACH

(1) use of synthetic auditory head related transfer function (HRTF) to simulate different virtual spatial source locations for up to five auditory signals; (2) analog-to-digital conversion for noise-free processing with HRTF, and subsequent digital-to-analog conversion for presentation of modified signals to right and left ears

POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS

games, command and control teleconferencing, aeronautical communications, virtual reality video

BENEFITS

(1) binaural hearing advantages: substantial improvement (6-8 dB)in signal to noise; faster reaction times, less listening fatigue, increased perception and immersion; (2) less expensive than general purpose 3D audio displays; (3) customizable; (4) user-friendly, not requiring computer interface 22 USC ETTC

Secondary Market Research: MAP

USC ETTC 23

The Radar

USC ETTC 24

CAP Tools (Explicit)

In the CAP, say you need to build a Technology Status Report.

Clicking on the link, brings up more information about what is a Technology Status Report (TSR), including an example.

USC ETTC Clicking on the details button reveals more information about the TSR.

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Market Research Repository

You can sort or filter you selection Each technology list the available primary marker research we have done.

26 USC ETTC

Market Wanted Innovations • Real time • General Solution (360 sphere) • Low Cost • Head Orientation Sensitive • Set Top Box • Sound Card Add in • Listener Location Independence

USC ETTC 27

INC. Magazine May 1999

Images courtesy of INC. magazine •

Michael Porter

- Harvard University just formed ICIC (Institute for a Competitive Inner City) Recently completed a 5 year study of 100 inner city growth companies: –

46%

compound annual growth rate – Generated on average

50 jobs/year

per company for five years – Annual hourly wage

$13/hour

high wage jobs at $

26/hr

• Ride the Information Technology and Telecommunications wave • Location, Location, Location 28 USC ETTC

MOB/WOB Firm

• Breakaway – On going profitable south central MOB IT Service Business – Strong Private and Public Network – No Products – Access to Capital Financing • Far West – Assisted with Business Plan – We located Physicist – Located Chip Designers – Located Short Run Factory for prototype chips – Located an Incubator – Assisting with SBIR and STTR to ensure dual use USC ETTC 29

Leveraging Existing Network Breakaway will take lead on SBIR Phase I and Phase II (hopefully) Far West RTTC will support USC School of Engineering will support STTR work.

Large Chip manufacturer is monitoring process Large Set Top Box manufacturer is monitoring process VC is monitoring process Investment Bank is monitoring process DoD is monitoring process Time to Market 24 to 36 months 30 USC ETTC