Transcript Jasmine Revolution - time4education.com

An Arab Spring
Or
Lost Revolutions
Nyayapati Gautam
Triumphant Institute of
Management Education P Ltd
www.time4education.com
Revolutions
If poverty is the cause of revolutions, there
would be revolutions all the time. What is
needed to turn a million people's grumbling
discontent into a crowd on the streets is a
spark to electrify them.
Leon Trotsky
Revolutions past
Iran: Achieved (Jan 1978 - Apr 1979)
Days: 448
Deaths: 3,000+
Goal: To overthrow the Shah. Democrats started
the popular uprising, but the clergy took over.
Tiananmen : Not Achieved (April 1989)
Days: 51
Deaths: ~3,000
Goal: To establish democracy, abolish one-party
rule and put an end to corruption.
Revolutions past
Indonesia: Goal Achieved (12-21 May 1998)
Days: 10
Deaths: ~1,000
Goal: To overthrow the oppressive regime of
Suharto and abolish political cronyism.
Ukraine: Goal partially achieved (Nov-Dec 2004)
Days: 37
Deaths: 0
Goal: To annul a falsified election, ensure a new
vote, and put an end to corruption and
censorship.
Progress of Revolutions
• Violent death serves as a powerful catalyst.
• When insiders turn outsiders – The regime
collapses.
• External pressure sometimes plays a role in
completing regime-change.
• Longevity of a regime and especially the old
age of a ruler can result in a fatal incapacity
to react to events quickly.
• Revolutions are 24/7 events.
• Inflexibility of the incumbent also contributes
to the crisis.
The First Hours of Egypt's Revolution
By ADEL ABDEL GHAFAR
I was reminded of something Ryszard Kapuscinski wrote in "The
Shah of Shahs," about the Iranian revolution: "The policeman
shouts, but the man doesn't run. He just stands there; looking
at the policeman.... He doesn't budge. He glances around and
sees the same look on other faces.... Nobody runs though the
policeman has gone on shouting. At last he stops. There is a
moment of silence. We don't know whether the policeman and
the man on the edge of the crowd already realizes what has
happened. The man has stopped being afraid -- and this is
precisely the beginning of the revolution.“
As the riot police neared us with their batons raised high, they
noticed that we were not moving. They started to slow down
until they abruptly stopped in front of us. For a moment, both
crowds stared at each other, polar opposites on an urban
battlefield. That moment will be etched in my memory
forever; time almost stood still.
Then, incredibly, the riot police turned back, and started running
for their lives, psychologically broken.
Middle East
• The Middle East is full of autocrats of various
kinds:
– Monarchies
– Dictatorships
– Religious republics
Most have been supported by outside powers.
• A potent combination of issues have helped
ignite the masses:
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The global financial crisis
Rising food prices
Increasing unemployment
Leaks of official documents (Wikileaks)
Middle East…
• For many decades, some of these regimes
were able to placate the vast majority of
their populations via massive fossil fuel based
revenues. Now, it seems, that is not enough.
• Some of the Arab countries are also artificial;
boundaries created by colonial powers to
divide and conquer the Arab people also
pitting clashing sub-cultures
Straight Lines…
Middle East…
• During the Cold War, the West (and Soviet
Union) actively tolerated, even encouraged,
authoritarian regimes for various geopolitical
reasons
• Iran’s brutal dictatorial regime governed by
the Shah was friendly to the West. It was
overthrown by a religiously extreme and antiUS regime and so the US supported Iraq’s
Saddam Hussein
Middle East…
• Another interest the West has in the region is
military: not just geopolitically as alluded to
above, but also selling vast amounts of arms
and/or military training.
Development Indicators
Current Scenario - Tunisia
• The suicide of a young, unemployed man,
Mohamed Bouazizi, who immolated himself on
17 December 2010 after officials had
blocked his attempts to make a living selling
vegetables triggered off protests that led to
the downfall of President Zine al-Abidine Ben
Ali. He was in power for 23 years.
• Around 300 people died during the unrest.
• He went into exile in Saudi Arabia.
• Ben Ali and his wife were sentenced in
absentia to 35 years in jail by a court in Tunis.
• Political police & state security apparatus
disbanded.
Current Scenario - Tunisia
• In October, the moderate Islamist Ennahda
party won the country's first democratic
elections.
• Ennahda, which was banned under the former
regime, says it has modelled itself on the
governing AK party in Turkey, another
Muslim-majority country which has remained a
secular state.
• Congress for the Republic (CPR) - the country's
biggest secularist party - was the runner-up
with nearly 14%, winning 30 seats in
parliament.
Current Scenario - Egypt
• President Hosni Mubarak resigned on 11
February 2011. He left office after 18 days
of protests in the capital, Cairo, and other
cities.
• He was in power for 30 years.
• At least 846 people were killed during the
uprising that toppled Mr Mubarak and more
than 6,400 people were injured, according to
an Egyptian government fact-finding panel.
• Hosni Mubarak has been put on trial, accused
of ordering the killings of protesters during
the uprising against him in January and
February - a charge he denies.
Current Scenario - Egypt
• Mubarak's sons and several former ministers
and officials are also facing charges.
• The army is in charge of overseeing Egypt's
transition to democracy.
• Parliamentary elections held in NovemberDecember.
• The new assembly met for the first time on 23
January. It is dominated by Islamists, who won
73% of seats.
• There is dissatisfaction against the military too
as they did not give a firm date for
presidential elections.
Current Scenario - Egypt
• There was anger about a draft document
produced by the military, containing the
principles for a new constitution, under which
the armed forces would be exempt from
civilian oversight.
• Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi
promised presidential elections by the end of
June 2012 after a fresh wave of violence.
• The cabinet has resigned to be replaced by a
"national salvation government“.
• Many activists say this is not enough and want
to see the immediate resignation of Field
Marshal Tantawi.
Current Scenario - Libya
• Libya's uprising began in mid-February when,
inspired by the revolutions in Tunisia and
Egypt, hundreds came out onto the streets of
several towns and cities demanding the end
of Col Gaddafi's rule.
• The authorities responded with violence,
opening fire on protesters, as the rallies grew
and spread across the country.
• The revolt soon evolved into an armed conflict
pitting forces loyal to Col Gaddafi - based in
Tripoli in the west - against rebel forces
based in the eastern port city of Benghazi.
Current Scenario - libya
• In March, the UN Security Council passed a
resolution which authorised "all necessary
measures" - except troops on the ground - to
protect civilians.
• Coalition operations were largely confined to
air attacks, initially aimed at imposing a nofly zone and later widened to include
government targets.
• Following six months of fighting, rebel forces
took Tripoli in late August, after gaining
pockets of territory in the west.
• On 31 October Col Muammar Gaddafi was
captured and killed on the outskirts of Sirte.
Current Scenario - Libya
• That brought to an end 42 years of rule by
the “Mad Dog”.
• Three weeks later, his son Saif al-Islam
Gaddafi and Libya's intelligence chief,
Abdullah al-Sanussi, were captured trying to
flee the country and now face trial in Libya.
• The National Transitional Council (NTC) which
led the revolt is now recognised by the UN as
Libya's legitimate ruling body.
• The UN believes at least 335,000 people
have fled Libya since the beginning of the
conflict, including at least 200,000 foreign
nationals.
Current Scenario - Syria
• Since the first protests in March 2011 in the
city of Deraa, at least 5,000 Syrians have
been killed, according to the UN.
• Demonstrators are calling for political
freedom, an end to corruption, action on
poverty and the lifting of an emergency law
imposed in 1963.
• The government in Damascus says it is fighting
"terrorists and armed gangs" and that some
2,000 members of the security forces have
been killed.
• It also says it is facing an international
conspiracy seeking to destabilise the country.
Current Scenario - Syria
• It has deployed the military in protest hotspots
around the country.
• Some 250 deaths were reported by human
rights campaigners in 3 days alone (19-21
Dec). In some areas protest has given way to
armed rebellion led by army deserters.
• The Arab League suspended Syria from its
ranks on 12 November and imposed
sanctions.
• Syria finally agreed to allow an observer
mission in.
• But its monitors have been criticised for failing
to stop the violence.
Current Scenario - Syria
• Assad has dismissed the League's plan modelled on the settlement reached in Yemen,
whereby the president relinquished power to
a deputy and left the country.
• Events in Syria, one of Israel's most bitter
enemies and a strong ally of Lebanon's
Hezbollah militants, could have a major
impact on the wider Middle East.
• Mr Assad has promised reform since 2000,
when he inherited power from his father
Hafez, but little has changed.
Current Scenario - Yemen
• Beginning in February 2011, hundreds of
people were killed in violence between
security forces and demonstrators calling for
an end to the 33-year rule of President Ali
Abdullah Saleh.
• In response to the protests he repeatedly held
out the promise that he would step down, only
to back out of deals paving the way for his
departure.
• On 21 Oct the UNSC called on the president
to sign a deal brokered by Gulf states, under
which he would step down in return for
immunity from prosecution - and his immunity
Current Scenario - Yemen
• But after stalling for months, Mr Saleh finally
signed an agreement on 23 November to
begin the transfer of power to his deputy.
• The deal should eventually clear the path for
elections to take place, but many protesters
are angry that Mr Saleh will be not face
justice for the suppression of the protests.
• Yemen is the Arab world's most impoverished
nation and even before the current protests, it
was becoming increasingly chaotic, with both
al-Qaeda and separatist challenges to the
government's authority.
Current Scenario - Yemen
• In January 2012, he left the country,
travelling to the US where he says he will
receive medical treatment.
Current Scenario - Iran
• Long-simmering unrest over the disputed 2009
presidential election boiled over again on 14
February 2011.
• Thousands of people heeded calls by the two
main opposition leaders to rally in the capital
Tehran in solidarity with pro-democracy
protests across the Middle East.
• Security forces cracked down on the protest.
Two people were killed and many more
injured.
• since then, the authorities have succeeded in
preventing any more large demonstrations
from taking place.
Current Scenario - Iran
• The opposition leaders Mehdi Karroubi and
Mir Hossein Mousavi were placed under house
arrest in February and have not been seen in
public since. Supporters of the government
have been calling for them to be executed.
• Iran's complex and unusual political system
combines elements of a modern Islamic
theocracy with democracy. Ahmadinejad has
said he will put down any protests.
• Speculation about the internal dynamics of the
regime – an apparent increase in tensions
between President and the Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Tunisia - Background
• Home of the ancient city of Carthage, Tunisia
has long been an important player in the
Mediterranean, placed as it is in the centre of
North Africa, close to vital shipping routes.
• French colonial rule ended in 1956, and
Tunisia was led for three decades by Habib
Bourguiba.
• He advanced secular ideas:
– Emancipation for women - women's rights in Tunisia
are among the most advanced in the Arab world.
– The abolition of polygamy
– Compulsory free education.
Ben Ali…
• Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali became prime minister
in 1987, shortly before ousting Tunisia's first
post-independence ruler, Habib Bourguiba, in
a bloodless palace coup.
• President Bourguiba was declared mentally
unfit to rule.
• Ben Ali promised a gradual transition towards
democracy, though in his first two presidential
polls - in 1989 and 1994 - he was elected
unopposed.
• Multi-party presidential elections were
introduced in 1999. They were one-sided
affairs, with Ben Ali winning huge majorities.
Crisis
• Self immolation by a young unemployed man
(Mohamed Bouazizi) on 17 December.
• Officials in his town prevented him from
selling vegetables on the streets of Sidi
Bouzid without permission.
• This triggered a much wider series of protests
and clashes with the police.
• Were the protests expected? No, the unrest
appears to have taken almost everyone by
surprise, including the government.
• The reason: Tunisia has seen fairly good
economic growth and has been a safe place
for foreign investors.
Response to crisis
• Ben Ali promised:
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to tackle rising food prices
allow freedom of the press and internet
to "deepen democracy and to revitalise pluralism".
he would not amend the constitution to enable him
to stand for office again in 2014.
End game
• The following day, Ben Ali announced that he
had dismissed his government and called for
new parliamentary elections within six months,
before declaring a state of emergency.
• A dusk-to-dawn curfew was imposed across
the whole country
• Public gatherings of more than three people
were banned
• The security forces given powers to shoot
anyone who disobeys their orders.
• Ben Ali finally announced on 14 January he
was stepping down "temporarily".
• He then fled to Saudi Arabia with his family.
Reasons
• It is widely believed that the Tunisian army's
chief of staff played a key role in
undermining Mr Ben Ali in the days before he
fled Tunisia.
• Internet access.
Political Sphere
• Under President Ben Ali, Tunisia was
effectively under one-party rule.
• But several other parties exist. They include:
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The Movement of Socialist Democrats
Party of People's Unity
Unionist Democratic Union
Renewal Movement (Ettajdid)
Democratic Initiative Movement
Social Liberal Party
Green Party for Progress.
Al-Nahda (a banned Islamist party)
The Congress for the Republic (a banned secular
party)
Egypt – A chronology
• 25 January: Protests begin in Egypt
• 28 January: Unrest spreads. The protests in
Egypt continue and gather momentum.
President Mubarak declares a curfew in
Cairo, Alexandria and Suez and the army is
deployed
• 29 January: Suleiman appointed vicepresident
• 31 January: Army rules out force
• 1 February: 'March of a million‘
• 2 February: Army calls for protests to end.
Brutal clashes break out between pro- and
anti-Mubarak groups
Egypt – A chronology
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3 February: Cairo clashes continue
4 February: 'Day of departure'
5 February: Ruling party resignations
10 February: Mubarak 'may step down'
11 February: Mubarak resigns
Reasons
• Egypt has long been known as a centre of
stability in a volatile region, but that masked
malignant problems which erupted in popular
demonstrations against the 30-year rule of
Hosni Mubarak on 25 and 28 January.
• The National Democratic Party (NDP)
monopolised political power through a
mixture of:
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Constitutional manipulation
Repression and rigged elections
Cronyism
The backing of powerful foreign allies.
Reasons…
• The main drivers of the unrest have been:
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Poverty
Rising prices
Social exclusion
Anger over corruption and personal enrichment
among the political elite
– A demographic bulge of young people unable to
find work. They have been at the forefront.
– It also helped that they were all extremely net
savvy.
– Tunisia as a catalyst.
So what?
• Egypt is most populous Arab country and
events there will impact the Middle East.
• Peace treaty with Israel.
• Economic implications:
– The tourism sector has been paralysed
– Oil prices have risen amid fears of unrest affecting
traffic through the Suez Canal
Yemen
• The poorest Arab country.
• Yemen suffers from:
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High unemployment
Overpopulation,
Dwindling oil reserves,
Dwindling water tables,
A Shia rebellion in the north,
A separatist movement in the south,
A resurgent al-Qaeda in the east,
A wasteful national preoccupation with the narcotic
qat leaf
Yemen
• Sizeable protests continue on and off against
the rule of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, in
power now for 33 years.
• The protesters want:
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More job opportunities
An end to corruption
More even distribution of wealth
An end to the president's rule.
• He has agreed not to stand again when his
term expires in 2013
Bahrain
• The clashes that erupted on 14 February
quickly turned violent.
• Police fired on protesters, seven people were
killed.
• Outsiders have been quick to point to a
sectarian split, the so-called "Sunni-Shia
divide", focusing on the fact that the ruling alKhalifa family come from the Sunni minority
while 70% of Bahrainis are Shia.
Bahrain…
• The protestors want:
– The 2002 constitution abolished in favour of free
elections for a parliament with genuine lawmaking
powers.
– They want political prisoners released
– An end to corruption and cronyism,
– The removal of PM Sheikh Khalifa al-Khalifa, who
has been in the post for 40 years.
– Some have gone further to call for the ousting of
King Hamad
– Some want an end to the two-century rule of the alKhalifa dynasty altogether.
Oman
• Oman does not have a huge oil industry and
many of the population work in agriculture
and fishing.
• Oman has been a peaceful country since the
popular ruler, Sultan Qaboos, overthrew his
backward father in 1970.
• He then defeated a communist insurgency in
the south.
• The recent unrest was sparked by a
government measure that led to several
workers getting laid off.
• An over-reaction by the security forces led to
an escalation in which two people died.
Any Losers?
• The autocrats.
• Israel.
– It supported Mubarak who was anti Hamas.
– Camp David peace agreement in the late 1970s
consolidated Israel's superiority in the region
• The US.
Q&A
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