Some bumps on the road ahead

Nils Larsson Executive Director, iiSBE, the International Initiative for a Sustainable Built Environment Dunedin November, 2007

iiSBE at a glance

        An international non-profit organization; Focus on guiding the international construction industry towards sustainable building practices; Emphasis is on research and policy, with a special emphasis on information dissemination, building performance and its assessment; Board members from 16 countries; Secretariat is in Ottawa (soon moving to Europe); Local chapters exist in Italy, Spain, Czech Republic and Portugal, others are being formed in Poland, France, Malaysia, Taiwan, and associated organizations exist in Mexico and Brazil; Andrea Moro is President, Nils Larsson is XD; No paid staff, very active network

Future context for the construction industry

         Climate change effects - temperatures, precipitation and more; Depletion of water resources in some regions; Increasing scarcity and cost of oil & gas; Scarcity and cost of some building materials, and the need to develop new alternatives; Scarcity of land for new development; Reversing the ecological damage of past development; Dealing with vagaries of government policies; Taking into account the dysfunctional structure of the construction industry; Taking into account the particular nature of buildings and their occupants;

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Future context for the construction industry

Need for more renovation activity and improved performance of renovated buildings; Achieving new energy efficiency and green performance requirements; Getting the market to accept less extravagant houses; Building new developments at densities high enough to make public transport and other services viable; Increasing the densities of

existing

suburbs; Producing large volumes of extremely low-cost housing and associated infrastructure in developing countries;

Climate change issues

Source: WRI

Per capita CO 2 emissions at the regional level in 2003

2050?

2020?

Source: IPCC

Predicted climate change impacts: from IPCC 2007

Examples of major projected impacts for industry, settlements and society

Reduced energy demand for heating; increased demand for cooling, declining air quality in cities … Reduction in quality of life for those people in warm areas without appropriate housing; impacts on the elderly, very young and poor.

Disruption of settlements, transport and societies due to flooding; pressures on urban and rural infrastructure; loss of property.

Water shortages …reduced hydro generation, potential for population migration.

Disruption by flood and high winds, loss of insurance, population migration, loss of property.

Costs of coastal protection v. relocation, loss of insurance, population migration, loss of property

Predicted climate change impacts in ANZ: from IPCC 4th Report, November, 2007

Deep-freeze pizza facility in Germany after storm of Jan. 18 CBC

Note that economic damage greatly exceeds insured coverage.

Source: IPCC 2000

We have seen some of the impacts of climate change on the building sector.

But there will also be other issues facing us.

Possible context during the next century

     Energy prices will probably be high, with most analysts predicting long-term prices above $60 per barrel for oil (currently at $90+); There may be a scarcity of affordable natural gas in some areas due to declining production from easily accessible fields; The global production of oil may be close to peak or already past it; This diminution of fossil fuel supplies will have immense effects, only some of which can be foreseen clearly; Certainly, fuel-dependent transportation will become very expensive, and so will the construction and operation of buildings;

A global forecast for all oil and gas

Demand from China, India, Brazil and SE Asia

IEA has an optimistic scenario for the growth of renewables and gains in efficiency

Primary energy - global scenario Future Buildings Forum, IEA

Resource consumption

    The construction sector is a major user of resources, including metals, wood, plastics, and the constituent materials for cement, masonry and ….

The production process for building materials require large amounts of energy and water, which feeds back into the central problem; The Club of Rome report was hasty in predicting shortages of resources, but in principle they were correct and there are clear signs that the increasing difficulty of extracting smaller amounts of some resources is now having an impact; And then consider the rate of growth in China, India and Brazil.

Growth in the construction sector of China, Brazil and India is high, and is likely to remain so for many years Davis & Langdon, World Construction Review 2005

Consumption of a range of industrial materials in Western Europe and USA is much more than in the rest of the world: what happens when India and China join the party?

Wastes

    The construction sector is responsible for 30% to 40% of municipal wastes; Materials taken to the dump means that new materials must be produced, with associated energy and emissions; Throwing things away does not work, because there is no “away”; The goal must be zero waste.

Reduction of C &D wastes in the Netherlands

Percent 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1985 Recycling Incineration Landfill 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Important elements:

    Taxes on landfill since 1996 Ban on landfill; partial since 1997, total since 2001; Obligation to sort C & D waste; Building materials decree (2001) - all materials certified regarding leaching, proper use, obligation to take back after use etc.

Info courtesy of Ronald Rovers

Issues at mid-century

Retrofit to adapt buildings and relocation to meet climate change conditions Reduced availability and higher cost of conventional fuels and materials Demand for higher service levels in developing and developed countries New construction related to inflow of climate refugees

The Construction Sector

Construction work required to replace ageing infrastructure Need to address housing and service needs in developing countries

Energy efficiency v. demand and service levels

     Energy efficiency in operations is clearly a top priority in view of its central role in reducing GHGs; However, consider the impacts of the following:  Construction undertaken for new airports and roads, future Olympics and World Expo events;   Buildings that are fully air-conditioned in even moderate climates; Second and third homes;   Single family houses that are efficient but have areas of 500 m2 or more; The proliferation of types and numbers of household appliances in even middle-class homes; In such cases, energy efficiency is not enough, and we must reduce the level of demand and expectations of service levels; But a reduction in demand or service levels is much harder to achieve than efficiency improvements, since it requires changes in values and lifestyles; This will be the main issue to address during the next decades.

Amount of space required to transport the same number of passengers by car, bus or bicycle

Source: poster in City of Muenster planning office, 2001

Conclusions

      Energy efficiency and Greenhouse gas emissions are core factors, but more than operating energy is involved; Other key issues include water and resource scarcity; There are many obstacles to rapid take-up of new ideas in the building sector; Success will require action on a broad front, taking into account varying regional needs and preferences; Great advances in environmental efficiency can be expected, but it is not so clear that we will see the changes of lifestyles and values required to reduce the production volume of buildings and equipment or to reduce service quality expectations..

If we are to successfully manage the impacts of climate change we must act immediately!

Contacts & Info

   http://www.iisbe.org

http://www.sbis.info

Nils Larsson, [email protected]