Transcript International Conference on Technical Vocational Education

Indiana School Counselors Association
Fall Conference - 2001
“The Quiet Dilemma”
SKILLS SHORTAGES,
HIGHER EDUCATION
&
TODAY'S YOUTH
Kenneth Gray
Penn State University
The Technical Work Force
Blue-Collar
Tech. Workers
Professional
25%
56%
19%
Technicians
Other Ways to Win
A region that does not have a
growing percentage of it
non-professional workforce
trained beyond high school
level will have increasing
difficulty in supporting the
competitiveness of highvalue business.
Building a World-Class Technical Workforce, 1996
Other Ways to Win
The Quiet Dilemma
• University Graduation Rate = 52%
• University underemployment rate = 43%
• Baccalaureate Success rate = 1 in 4.
The Nation’s Quiet Dilemma
Underemployment
of University Graduates
• 43% of grads in high school jobs two yrs later
• 43% in jobs with no career potential 4 yrs later
• 69% of arts and science majors in jobs with no
career potential 4 yrs later
Source: B&B 1st & 2nd follow-up, NCES 93/97
Employment Outlook for
University Graduates
2006
Bachelors
Supply
Demand
1,268,000
734,300
Commensurate
Employment
57%
Recommending College in Sophomore Years
for 1982 and 1992 High School Graduates
Father
Mother
1982 1992
Guidance
Counselor
1982 1992
1982 1992
Total
59.1
Test Quartile
Lowest
Second
Teachers
1982 1992
77.0
64.8
82.9
32.3
65.2
32.3
65.5
40.4
59.9
47.6
64.7
26.1
59.4
28.2
57.2
49.7
71.7
55.6
79.3
26.1
61.1
26.5
60.7
Source: HS &B base year student survey (1980) and NELS:88 first follow-up
student survey (1990), National Center for Education Statistics, U.S.
Department of Education
Other Ways to Win
Confusion Regarding the
Importance of Job Skills
Sources of Labor Market Advantage
High Skill/ High Wage
Low Skill/
Low Wage
Other Ways to Win
Effects of Skills on Productivity in
Non Clerical-N
12
10
8
6
Success in
Training
4
Productivity
2
0
Technical
Clerical
Speed
Compute
Speed
Math
Reasoning
Science
Other Ways to Win
Verbal
Sources of Labor Market Advantage
High Skill/ High Wage
Low Skill/
Low Wage
Other Ways to Win
Occupational Groups Ranked by
Earnings
Earnings
Managerial/Professional
1
Craft, Precision Metal, Repair
2
Technical Support
3
Service
4
Operative, Laborer
5
Farming, Fishing
6
Source: Compiled from Eck, (1994) & Statistical
Abstracts U.S. 1994.
Occupational Groups Ranked by
Earnings, Net Openings
Earning
Openings
Managerial/Professional
1
Technical Support
1
Craft, Precision Metal, Repair
2
Operative, Laborer
2
Technical Support
3
Craft, Precision Metal, Repair
3
Service
4
Service
4
Operative, Laborer
5
Farming, Fishing
5
Farming, Fishing
6
Managerial/Professional
6
Source: Compiled from Eck, (1994) & Statistical Abstracts U.S. 1994.
A New Goal
Stop counting the number of teens who go
to college and start counting how many are
successful.
Every student should graduate with a
postsecondary plan that has a high
probability of success.
Today
Success Requires
Academic Skills
&
Career Direction
Where High School Seniors Expect
to be Employed
Occupations
All Seniors
Males
Females
49.3
68.8
Professional
59.0
Manager
6.0
6.6
5.4
Craft/Precision
manufacturing/
Specialized repair
2.8
5.3
0.3
Technicians
6.0
8.4
3.7
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Other Ways to Win
All my life I’ve always wanted
to be somebody, but I see now
I should have been more specific.
Wagner, 1986
Other Ways to Win
Old Advice that is Now Bad Advice
• Postpone career choices as long as possible
You don’t want to close any doors.
• Don worry about career indecision you will
decide that in college. (The difference between
acceptance into college and acceptance into a major).
Career Development Basics
• Not our role to tell teens and parents what
they should or should not do. It is our role
to help them make the best decision they
can.
• Remember the difference between jobs and
careers.
• Remember fastest growing occupations may
not mean the greatest opportunity.
Student Outcomes Goals of Career
Development Programs
Help teens make the best career decision
they can based on what they know “now”
about themselves and the world of work. If
this is a good decision, the next decision
will be even better.
Student Outcomes Goals of Career
Development Programs
By the tenth grade all students will have
participated in activities designed to help
them identify several career options.
In the eleventh and twelfth grades all
students will participate in activities that
allow them to verify these choices, using
the results to develop postsecondary plans.
Four Messages for Students
and Parents
1. Focus on postsecondary success, not college
admissions.
2. Take career exploration seriously—career
direction predicts success.
.3. If one goal is economic security, then don’t
confuse education with occupational skills.
4. Consider two-year postsecondary technical
education and apprenticeship training that can
lead to a four-year college degree.
Other Ways to Win