Transcript Diapositiva 1 - Fondazione Mondo Digitale

Educazione per la Vita, Innovazione
Sociale e Problem Solving
Alfonso Molina
Direttore Scientifico, Fondazione Mondo Digitale
Professor of Technology Strategy, The University of Edinburgh
Presentazione per Workshop “Meet No Neet. Il Passaporto per le Competenze del XXI Secolo,” 12, June 2013, Roma.
Agenda
1. Education for Life
2. Innovazione Sociale
3. Problem Solving - Problem/s Definition or Analysis
Education for Life
Tecnologia
Progressi Scientifici
e Tecnologici Multipli
Multi-piattaforme
(hardware / software)
Multi-modalità
Cognitiva
Ambienti Esperienziali
Multi-livello
Phyrtuality
(Physical + Virtual)
Big, Open Data e Contenuto
Società
Processi di
Innovazione
Tecnologica e
Sociale Aperti
Reti Multi-organizzazione e
Multi-settore
Orientamento alla
Conoscenza e alle
Metodologie e Pratiche
più Efficaci
Crowdfunding –
Crowdsourcing
Apprendimento
Attivo Individuale e
Sociale
(Brain-based)
Italia – Crisi (2013)
-26.000 imprese
Disoccupati –
>38% (15-29 anni)
(2012)
Debito – 126% PIL
Evasione fiscale –
€180 miliardi
Crisi Economica,
Evasione, Corruzione
Costo di corruzione –
€60 miliardi
Conflitto di
interesse
NEET – 2 milioni
(15-29 anni)
Giovani – Precarietà,
Disoccupazione
Precari –
Neets
>3.3 millioni
Egoismo Individuale
e Corporativo
>24% over 60 (2000)
>35% over 60 (2025)
Invecchiamento della
Popolazione
Migrazioni
Stranieri in Italia –
5.4 millione (Gen 2012)
Debolezze
Istituzionali
Debolezze dell’educazione
per il 21° secolo Tagli -8 miliardi
dal 2008
Ambiente
L’Italia centra target -7%
emissioni (2008 - 2012)
480 mln di tondi CO2
(limite 483)
Italia – Crisi è Opportunità
Il settore industriale
contribuisce 25% del
PIL italiano e 30.7%
della forza di lavoro
(2010)
Crisi è Opportunità
Eccellenza nel
Disegno
€ 67 miliardi
Forte Crescita del
4.3% del PIL
Settore Sociale
650 mila addetti
4 milioni di volontari
Industria
Produttiva
Solidarietà
Intergenerazionale
Quasi 500 mila imprese
7.8% del totale (2013)
Imprenditoria
Straniera
Capacità
Scientifica e
Tecnologica
Patrimonio
Storico
Il paese con il più grande
numero di World Heritage
Sites in the world – 47
(UNESCO)
Il Più Potente Strumento
nell’Universo
La Persona – Multi-dimensionalità Dinamica
Emotion
Desolazione
Felicità
Intelligences
Emotions
Body
Amore
Odio
Rabbia
Calma
Senza Paura
Paura
Vergogna
Onore
Compassione
Crueltà
Character
Lussuria
Temperanza
Innovazione Sociale
Innovazione Sociale
L’Innovazione sociale comprende nuove strategie, concetti,
idee e organizzazioni che soddisfano bisogni sociale di tutte
classe – da condizioni di lavoro ed educazione allo sviluppo
della comunità e la salute – e questo e rinforza ed espande la
società civile (Wikipedia)
Social innovation refers to new strategies, concepts, ideas
and organizations that meet social needs of all kinds — from
working conditions and education to community
development and health — and that extend and strengthen
civil society. (Wikipedia)
Innovazione Sociale – Chi sono i beneficiari?
I beneficiari dell’Innovazione Sociale sono o
l’intera società, come nel caso
dell’educazione pubblica, o i settori più
svantaggiati della popolazione, come i poveri,
i disabili, i disoccupati, i rifugiati, etc.
In altre parole, non è un’innovazione
commerciale a beneficio esclusivo degli
individui e gruppi più privilegiati nella
società.
INCLUSIONE è una parola chiave nell’innovazione sociale
Innovazione Sociale – Che Si Innova?
Innovazione Sociale – Che Tipo di Problemi si Affrontano?
Innovazione Sociale Chi Contribuisce?
Organizzazione del
settore pubblico
Organizzazione del
settore orientato al
profitto
Organizzazione del
settore sociale
Organizzazione del
settore comunitario
Nonni su
Internet
Organizzazione del
settore pubblico
Province
Comuni
Regione Aziende
sanitarie
Strutture
assistenziali
per anziani
Scuole
Organizzazione del
settore sociale
Cooperative
di servizi
Aziende ICT
Anziani
esclusi e
Studenti
Fondazione
Mondo Digitale
Aziende ICT
per la salute
Auser
Anteas
Centri di
Anziani
Associazioni di
volontariato
locale
Organizzazione del
settore comunitario
Organizzazione del
settore orientato al
profitto
Nuovo Spectro di Organizzazioni dal Settore Sociale al
Settore Forprofit
Problem Solving
Problem/s Definition or Analysis
Some Basic Principles
The “Problem Iceberg” Metaphor
The “problem iceberg” metaphor expresses well the idea that the visible part represents only a
small part of the entire problem, while most of it remains hidden “under the surface” (i.e., the
underlying problems). Of course, the “problem iceberg” mainly draws attention to the hidden
underlying problems; it does not offer a systematic approach to think about these underlying
problems.
Visible part of the
problem - symptoms
Underlying part of the
problem – root causes
Establishing Priorities – 80/20 Rule or Pareto Principle
The 80/20 Rule or Pareto Principle states that broadly roughly 80% of the output or effects
come from 20% of the inputs or causes. The first to notice this relationship was the Italian
economist Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923) who, in the early 1990s, observed that 20% of the people
owned 80% of the wealth in his country. The rule is empirical and tends to apply to many
situations, for instance, 20% of customers create 80% of revenues. For problem solvers, the
80/20 Rule leads to prioritize the identification of the 20% of factors having 80% of impact.
80%
20%
Input
Output
20%
80%
80/20 Rule or Pareto Principle
20% of input (items) are responsible for 80% of
output (impact), while the remainder 80% of input
is responsible for the remainder 20% of output
Cause-and-Effect Trees
Trees follow two general formats. The tree on the left follows the MECE format
associated to McKinsey Consultants. MECE is the acronym for Mutually Exclusive and
Collectively Exhaustive, a principle used to organize information into categories that do
not overlap and, when added together, cover or exhaust all possible options. Mutually
exclusive means that the occurrence of one event effectively precludes the occurrence of
another. Collective exhaustion means that all possible options are listed at least once. The
MECE tree allows for a very clean structuring of information and thinking, but excludes
relationships between several root causes when these exist. The tree on the right permits
the visualization of relationships between various causes at any level.
MECE Tree
Problem
Problem
Problem
5 WHYs
5 WHYs
The “5 Whys” technique is simple. As it names says problem solvers must ask why
until they get to the root cause of problems (e.g., defects in production processes).
The number of 5 questions is not absolute, it can be less or more. The technique
comes from Toyota Motor Corp. and it is associated to Taiichi Ohno, architect of the
Toyota Production System. It is part of the quality management programmes in the
industrial work.
Advantage
Simplicity, as problem
solvers must follow a
sequence of Whys
Limitation
It does not work well
with complex, illstructured problems
having multiple causes.
Answers are only
qualitative and based on
personal knowledge and
experience
(perceptions).
5 WHYs
Organization and Instruments for 5 Whys analysis. The group must secure
the production, recording and structuring of ideas. There are many instruments
to support these activities from simple pen and paper to flipcharts, computers,
low-cost interactive whiteboards, and templates and software to produce
templates, tables and diagrams.
5 WHYs Template
Describe Problem (What):
1ST Why?
Describe 1st level cause:
2nd Why?
Describe 2nd level cause:
3rd Why?
Describe 3rd level cause:
4th Why?
Describe 4th level cause:
5th Why?
Describe 5th level cause:
ROOT CAUSE PROBLEM
Cause-and-Effect Trees
Why Tree
RCA Tools – Why Tree
The Why Tree follows the logic of the 5 Whys analysis but allows for the analysis of
problems with multiple causes.
Use of Why Tree (video)
Why Tree Example
Problem Tree
RCA Tools – Problem Tree
The problem tree is a cause-effect visualization approach that places the problem on the
tree trunk (centre ), the effects on the tree branches (top), and causes on the tree roots
(bottom). If the analysis identifies sub-levels of causes and effects, a tree diagram with
boxes is useful. The box-based diagram shown is only an example. The possible forms of
tree diagrams are infinite depending on the sub-levels and relations between factors
inside causes and effects.
Effects
Effects
Problem
Problem
Causes
Causes
Two Problem Tree Examples
The two examples of problem
trees show a MECE format. Note
that the example on the left (“lack
of sufficient clean water) has an
inverted shape with “causes” at
the top of the diagram
Found at
http://web.mit.edu/urbanupgrading/upgrading/issuestools/tools/problem-tree.html
Found at http://www.odi.org.uk/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odiassets/publications-opinion-files/6461.pdf
Problem Tree Example - Malnutrition
Application of the
problem tree to the
problem of
malnutrition (core or
focal problem). At the
top are the various sublevels of effects of
malnutrition; at the
bottom the various sublevels of causes.
Different groups of
problem solvers can
produce different trees.
Found at http://motherchildnutrition.org/info/malnutrition-problem-tree.html
From Problem Tree to Solution Tree
Once a Problem Tree is completed, it is a simple step to develop a Solution Tree. It
suffices to reverse the negative causes and effects in the problem tree into aims that
represent the solution to the problem – the result is a solution tree. Below, the
powerpoint presentation “Developing Problem and Solution Trees” and the video
“Problem Tree and Solution Tree” show how a problem tree is constructed and how its is
transformed into a solution tree.
Developing Problem & Solution Trees
Powerpoint - Problem & Solution Trees
Video - Problem Tree and Solution Tree
From Problem Tree to Solution Tree - Example
The example below show, on the left, a problem tree applied to the focal problem
“Outbreak of Cholera,” while on the right this tree has been transformed into a solution
tree with the objective “Prevention of Cholera.” Note that the content of the cause and
effect boxes has been turned into the opposite and the shape of the tree remains the same.
Problem
Tree
Solution
Tree
Found at http://www.wsscc.org/node/796
Issue Tree
Issue Trees (What and How Trees)
The Issue Trees –as well as the MECE (mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive) approachare associated with the McKinsey’s problem-solving methodology. This methodology tackles
problems or challenges by seeking to generate possible solutions (i.e., solution hypotheses) that
are then tested for their effectiveness. The Issue Trees do not search directly for the root causes
(“why?) of a problem. They rather unpack the key components of a problem and build towards a
possible solution by identifying the factors involved in the problem (what’s involved?), assessing
the current state of those factors (what’s the current situation?), identifying actions for a
possible solution (how to change or improve?), checking for the feasibility of the changes (can
it be done?), if it can be done, what is required? Problem solver must feel free to use the types
of questions that are most productive for them. All rigidities must be avoided.
Advantage
High readability of visual
representation. The
structuring of the
information is very clear.
Enables the identification of
key issues concerning the
problem (what); and allows
for the build up of possible
solutions (“how”
hypotheses)
Limitation
What?
Issue trees do not identify root
causes directly, although they
may arrive to them as they
identify potential solutions.
For complex problems, it may
be difficult to fulfil the
“collectively exhaustive”
principle. A knowledgeable
experienced team can help
here.
What Trees – Identifying the Issues in a Problem
The What Tree helps gain a deep understanding of the problem by allowing for (1) a clear
organization and visualization of all issues or aspects important to the problem (“what’s involved?”)
and (2) an assessment of the current situation. The What Tree below on the left focuses on the
problem of profitability, the one on the right focuses on the problem of increased product sales. Both
trees list key aspects or issues associated to their respective problems. These aspects are also
mutually exclusive, that is, they do not overlap or interfere with each other. Problem solvers may be
unsure about whether they have really identified all issues. The key point is to have those aspects
that enable the construction of an effective solution or answer to the problem.
Profit
“What Tree” for Profitability (Friga, 2009, p.92)
Increase
d
Product
Sales
“What Tree”
for Increased
Sales (Raisel,
1999, p.12)
What Trees – Assessing Current Situation of Issues in a
Problem
The What Tree shown below on the left assesses the current situation (“what’s the situation?”)
regarding higher than expected expenditures in street cleaning. The video on the right shows the
this construction of the tree. This “what tree” allows for a more precise identification of
where the problem may be located. It follows the identification of issues shown in the “what’s
involved?” tree of the previous slide. Problem solvers may also feel that they can construct
directly a “what’s the situation?” tree, specially if they are confident of their knowledge
regarding the issues involved in the problem. This tree enables a gradual step forward towards
identifying potential solutions to a problem (see How Tree? In next slide).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WO9DhnMubUU
WTE = Whole Time Equivalent
locum = substitute for another person
Video on Issue Tree
How Trees – Identifying potential solution/s
The How Tree deals with the “how path” towards the potential solution or solutions. It can be
called “How To Do It Tree,” or, simply, “How Tree.” The tree below on the left is concerned wit
“how to reduce expenditures;” the tree on the right with how to increase monthly money without
debt. The second tree includes the first. The next step towards the potential solution/s is to
prioritise. So far, all the issues listed in the “How Tree” have equal standing and this makes it too
complex to arrive at potential solutions. One way is to apply the “80/20 Law,” stating that 20% of
factors or issues are responsible for 80% of a problem. This step leads closer to root causes.
The other is to apply the “Can they be implemented?” question to the proposed mechanisms.
Problem
Statement
How?
How?
Less food
Buy
fewer
items
Less clothing
Less entertainment
Less travel
How could you
reduce your
expenditure
each month?
Lower quality
items
Pay less
for same
quantity
of items
“How Tree” for Expenditure Reduction
McKinsey & Company (2011), p.19.
Items at
discount/on sale
Share costs of
items (e.g., split
rent with
roommate, car
pool)
“How Tree” for Money Increase
http://www.strategyhub.net/2011/03/problem-solving-techniques.html
How Tree – Establishing Priorities through “Can It Be Done” Question
The “Can they be implemented?” or “Can It be Done?” question is a general question that can be
decomposed into several sub-question concerning, for instance, the capacity of the organization (e.g.,
skills, technology, etc.) to implement a change, or, the existing regulations in the environment where
the organization operates, or, the impact of the changes on the quality and cost of a
product/process/service. In short, the suggested mechanisms must be examined to see if they are
really possible and really lead to the desired results. Depending on the answers to the “Can It Be
Done?” question, further questions and answers may be required. For instance, if the answers to “can
it be done with the technology of the organization is “No,” then the new question will be “What is
Required?”
Problem
Statement
How?
Increase
revenue
How?
How?
Increase
price
without becoming
uncompetitive?
without increasing costs
of production
Increase
quantity
without market
saturation
How to
increase profits
Reduce
variable
costs
Reduce
costs
“How to Increase
Profit” Tree
Reduce cost /
unit
Reduce
quantity
Reduce fixed
costs
Can It Be Done?
Buildings,
machinery
by reducing labour
costs
by increasing
productivity
by reducing people
without negative impact
by improving energy
or materials
consumption
Can It Be Done?
with the skills set of the
organization
with the technology of
the organization
with the skills set of the
organization
with the technology of
the organization
through access to new
energy forms & materials
with the technology of
the organization
Cause-and-Effect Trees – Instruments
Tools for Cause-and-Effect Tree Diagrams. The group must secure the free production,
recording and grouping of ideas, leading to the generation of the tree diagram containing
the root causes of the problem. There are many instruments to support these activities from
simple pen and paper to whiteboards, flipcharts, stickers, computers, low-cost interactive
whiteboards, and software such as excel, CMap or other specialised diagram software such
as SmartDraw and several iPad apps for diagrams (e.g., Xdiagram, Shapes)
Decision Tree
(manual)
Molte Grazie!