Transcript Communications: NREL PowerPoint Presentation Template with

Wind Energy: Status and Future
Tom Williams
NREL
FLC Mid-Continent Regional Meeting
September 2005
Topics
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NREL
Market Drivers for Renewable Energy
Wind Energy Markets Today
R&D and Future Prospects for Wind
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
 Only national laboratory dedicated to
renewable energy and energy efficiency R&D
 Research spans fundamental science to
technology solutions
 Collaboration with industry and university
partners is a hallmark
 Research programs linked to market
opportunities
Major NREL Program Areas
Supply Side
Demand Side
Wind Energy
Transportation
Solar Energy
Buildings Technology
Biomass/Biofuels
Energy Systems
Industry
Geothermal
Technology
Hydrogen Research
Electric Energy
Systems and
Storage
Federal Energy
Management
Cross Cutting
Office of Science
Analytical Studies
International
Resource Assessment
National Wind Technology Center
Built in 1981 as the Small Wind Test
Center on 280 acres
Dedicated as the National Wind
Technology Center in 1994
Today the NWTC is a world
class state-of-the-art research
facility on 305 acres testing
advanced wind turbine
technologies
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NREL
Market Drivers for Renewable Energy
Wind Energy Markets Today
R&D and Future Prospects for Wind
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration (PPMV)
Atmospheric Concentration of CO2
Year
Source: Adapted from W.M. Post, T.H. Peng, W.R. Emanuel, A.W. King, V.H. Dale, and D. DeAngelis.
American Scientist, 1990. “The Global Carbon Cycle.”
U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil
Have Oil
Saudi Arabia
Iraq
Kuwait
Iran
UAE
Venezuela
Russia
Mexico
Libya
China
Nigeria
U.S.
26%
11%
10%
9%
8%
6%
5%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
Use Oil
U.S.
Japan
China
Germany
Russia
S. Korea
France
Italy
Mexico
Brazil
Canada
India
26%
7%
6%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest
consuming nations combined.
Updated August 2002
Source: International Energy Annual 1999 (EIA), Tables 1.2 and 8.1.
World Population Growth, 1750-2100
10
Billions
8
6
4
Developing Countries
2
Industrial Countries
1750
1800
1850
1900
Source: Population Reference Bureau
1950
2000
2050
2100
The World Needs Clean, Low-Cost
Energy
GDP Per Capita
($000/person)
100
Affluence
Japan
France
United Kingdom
United States
10
Mexico
South Korea
El Salvador
Russia
Poland
1
Poverty
China
Bangladesh
Ethiopia
0.1
0.1
1
10
100
1000
Energy Consumption Per Capita (MMBTU/person)
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 1998 Tables E1, B1, B2; Mike Grillot, 5/17/00
Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 1997 in 1990 dollars. Energy Consumption per capita is 1997.
Long-Term Drivers for Renewable
Energy
• Environmental
– Greenhouse gas emissions
– Other environmental impacts (air quality, acid rain, land use,
water use)
• National Energy Security
– Reduce dependency on imported oil (political and economic
risk)
• Social and Political
– Energy necessary to reduce gap between developed and
developing world
– World political pressure
• Economic
– Least-cost energy solution
– Reduced price uncertainty
– Grid optimization
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NREL
Market Drivers for Renewable Energy
Wind Energy Markets Today
R&D and Future Prospects for Wind
U.S. Energy Consumption
by source - 1850-1999
120
Quadrillion BTUs
100
Non-hydro
Renewables
Nuclear
80
Natural
Gas
60
Hydro
40
Crude Oil
20
Wood
Coal
0
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
Source: 1850-1949, Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1975;
1950-1996, Annual Energy Review 1996, Table 1.3. Note: Between 1950 and 1990, there was no reporting of non-utility use of renewables.
1997-1999, Annual Energy Review 1999, Table F1b.
Growth of Wind Energy Capacity
Worldwide
Actual
70000
60000
Projected
Jan 2005 Cumulative MW =46,048
Rest of World
Rest of World
Rest of World = 5,147
North America
North America
North America =
Europe
Europe
Europe
7,241
= 33,660
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2003
Windpower Monthly, January 2005
*NREL Estimate for 2005
Sizes and Applications
Small (10 kW)
• Homes (Grid
connected)
• Farms
• Remote Applications
(e.g. battery changing,
water pumping,
telecom sites,
icemaking)
Intermediate
(10-500 kW)
• Village Power
• Hybrid Systems
• Distributed Power
Large (500 kW – 6 MW)
• Central Station Wind Farms
• Distributed Power
• Offshore Wind Generation
Stations
United States Wind Power Capacity (MW)
Washington
244
Montana
2
Oregon
259
Idaho
0.2
Wyoming
285
North
Dakota
66
Minnesota
615
Utah
0.2
Colorado
229
California
2,096
New Mexico
267
Michigan
2
South
Dakota
44
Nebraska
20
Kansas
114
Oklahoma
176
Vermont
6
Wisconsin
53
New Hampshire
0.1
Massachusetts
1
New York
48
Iowa
632
Illinois
81
Ohio
7
Pennsylvania
129
West Virginia
66
Arkansas
0.1
Tennessee
29
Texas
1,293
Alaska
1
Hawaii
9
Maine
0.1
6,770 MW as of 12/31/04
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NREL
Market Drivers for Renewable Energy
Wind Energy Markets Today
R&D and Future Prospects for Wind
Reducing the Cost of Energy
DOE Goal for Utility Scale Wind Systems
• Develop wind turbines
capable of 3 cents/kWh
on land and 5 cents
offshore in Class 4 (13
mph) wind sites by
2012:
• Making more wind sites
available close to load
centers
• Increases the area for
wind development by a
factor of 20+
• Developing advanced
wind technology for
opening the U.S.
offshore regions for
wind development
Trent Mesa, Texas
Offshore GE Wind Energy
3.6 MW Prototype
Boeing 747-400
•Offshore GE 3.6 MW
104 meter rotor diameter
•Offshore design requirements
considered from the outset:
–Crane system for all
components
–Simplified installation
–Helicopter platform
Clipper LWST Prototype
2.5 MW with 93 m Rotor
Offshore Wind Potential for New England
Preliminary Data
Evolution To Deep Water Wind Turbines
Avian Interactions Research
 Data suggest the most significant avian
wind-turbine interaction problem in the U.S.
is in the Altamont WRA.
 There is no reason that avian issues should
be a concern for future wind farm
development; any potential problem should
be identified and dealt with before
micrositing occurs.
 Two guidance documents have been
adopted by the NWCC: (1) Permitting of
Wind Energy Facilities, and (2) Metrics and
Methods for Avian Studies. These two
documents serve as guidance for siting and
development of new wind farms in the U.S.
 Facilities developed following these
guidelines have not experienced significant
avian impact issues.
NREL Avian Library Available at: www.nrel.gov/wind/avian_lit.html
Collaborative Wildlife Research
• National Wind Coordinating Committee
• Bat & Wind Energy Collaborative
Infrared Image of a Bat Flying Through a Wind
Turbine Rotor Taken by Jason Horn, Boston University
A Future Vision for Wind Energy
2004
Land Based Electricity Path
Land Based LWST
Large-Scale
2–5 MW
Bulk Power
Generator
4-6¢ at 15mph
• Land Based
• Bulk Electricity
• Wind Farms
Future
LWST Turbines:
• 3¢/kWh at 13mph
• Electricity Market
2012
Cost & Regulatory
Barriers
Offshore LWST Turbine:
• 5 cents/kWh
Offshore Turbines
• Shallow/Deep water
5 MW and Larger
• Electricity Market
• Higher wind Sites
2012 and Beyond
Offshore Electricity Path
Advanced Applications
Path
Potential 20% of
Electricity Market
Transmission
Barriers
Cost & Infrastructure
Barriers
Land or Sea Based:
• Hydrogen
• Clean Water
Custom Turbines:
• Electricity
• H2 production
• Desalinate water
• Storage
• Multi-Market
2030 and Beyond