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The Impacts of The Food, Conservation and Energy Act of 2008 Policies on Southern Agriculture The Trade Title & The FCEA Linkage to U.S. WTO Commitments Mechel S. Paggi Director, Center for Agricultural Business College of Agricultural Sciences and Technology California Agricultural Technology Institute California State University, Fresno Kansas City, Missouri July 8-9, 2008 TRADE -- Establishes a consultative group to combat child and labor in the production of U.S. commodity imports. -- Establishes Softwood Lumber Importer Declaration Program to require importers of softwood lumber to "declare" they are importing lumber consistent with international agreements, primarily the Softwood Lumber Agreement between the U.S. and Canada. Applies civil penalties to importers for knowingly violating the law. -- Repeals the Export Enhancement Program. -- Repeals the GSM-103 export credit guarantee program as well as the 1 percent fee cap on the GSM-102 program. Funding for GSM-102 set at $40 million in mandatory spending and authorized to make at least $4 billion in credit guarantees available each year. -- Market Access Program funding is kept at $200 million in mandatory spending per year. -- Technical assistance for specialty crop funding is ramped up to $9 million in 2012 (total funding: $37 million over 5 years). -- Makes a minor change to the "buy American" provision in the Emerging Markets and Facilities Loan Guarantee Program to allow a waiver of that provision if such goods are not available. -- Authorizes $60 million in appropriations for Germplasm Conservation. Trade : Prepared by the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee • REFORMS FOOD AID OPERATION AND OVERSIGHT: The bill addresses many of the shortcomings of U.S. international food aid programs identified in an April 2007 Government Accountability Office report, such as lack of attention to food aid quality and inadequate assessment of development in recipient countries. • SPEEDS EMERGENCY FOOD RESPONSE: Changes made will increase the ability of the U.S. government to pre-position U.S. commodities in overseas warehouses, thus allowing expedited food donations to countries facing dire emergencies. • PROMOTES DEVELOPMENT BY MODIFYING THE BILL EMERSON HUMANITARIAN TRUST: P.L.480 title II funds are intended for both emergency and agricultural development assistance. The bill reforms operation of the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust and clarifies that the Trust should be used as a source of funding in humanitarian emergencies in order to maintain more funding under Title II for development. Trade : Prepared by the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee • ESTABLISHES A LOCAL AND REGIONAL PROCUREMENT PILOT PROGRAM: The bill includes a pilot program funded at $60 million over four years for the purpose of evaluating the effectiveness of local or regional procurement of food for humanitarian assistance. The Secretary of Agriculture is required to establish projects using locally purchased food in a variety of regions and situations, and to arrange for independent evaluation of the projects’ efficacy in a report to the House and Senate Agriculture Committees prior to the expiration of this bill in 2012. • REFORMS AND EXTENDS EXPORT PROGRAMS: The bill modifies export credit guarantee programs to make them consistent with the ruling in the World Trade Organization cotton case and reauthorizes the Market Access Program, Foreign Market Development Program, and the Emerging Markets and Facilities Loan Guarantee program. • EXPANDS TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE FOR SPECIALTY CROPS: This program provides financial assistance to producers and exporters of specialty crops in addressing technical and sanitary and phyto-sanitary barriers against their products in overseas markets. Funding for the program is increased from the current level of $2 million annually to $9 million annually by 2012. A Trade Title Written in a Time of Plenty Fiscal Year Trade Forecasts for U.S. Agricultural Products Changes in 2008 Forecast Since February Ag Exports rise $7.5 billion to record $108.5 billion AgImports rise $2 billion to record $78.5 billion Ag Surplus reaches record $30.0 billion U.S. Agricultural Trade Higher prices for grains & soybeans and larger grain volumes drive half of the export gain in 2008. Import growth continues at faster pace. T rade Value ($Billion) $110 $100 108.5 $90 Record $80 81.9 $70 59.8 $60 Exports $50 78.5 70.0 49.1 Imports $40 $30 Trade Surplus 27.3 $20 30 11.9 $10 $0 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 Cheaper Dollar Influence Doesn’t Hurt '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 FY’08 Exports Revised Since February $7.5 Billion to Record $108.5 Billion Volume Up 2.6 mmt to Record 138.4 mmt AgExports Up Major Bulk Commodity Grains & Feeds $2.6 billion to record $35.3 billion wheat (+) $500 million – higher prices offsets some vol reduction animal feeds: corn (+) $500 million – (+) 1 mmt with no competition and (+) prices anticipating tighter US mkt; feeds/fodders – (+) $ 650 mil on (+) vol for DDGs rice (+) $600 – export unit value jumps to $590/ton and some vol increase Animal Products $2.5 billion to record $20.5 billion dairy prods (+) $1.1 bil – (+) vols, esp. NFDM, on strong demand & NZ drought pork (+) $475 mil – (+) 200,000 mt mainly on strong China demand Oilseeds and Products $1.8 billion to record $20.7 billion soybeans (+) $1.3 bil – (+) 2.3 mmt and unit values on extended late-season sales Horticultural Products $800 million to record $20.5 billion fruits/vegs/tree nuts (+) 600 million – good supplies, strong demand, weak dollar Cotton $500 million but still a record 5.1 billion volume lowered 300,000 mt on technical adjustment to China stocks and import demand Major Bulk Commodity Export Vol 2.6 mil. tons to record 138.4 mil. tons volume is up 13.7 mmt from 2007 and 2 mmt above previous record set in 1980 largest annual increases: corn +8.9 mmt, sorghum +2.6 mmt, wheat +1.8 mmt Ag Imports Continue Four Decades of Expansion Demand & supply factors at work in a relatively open market Demand: consumer preferences (variety, luxury, ethnic foods); population growth (2.7 million/year); high disposable income Supply: capital flows build foreign capacity; technology transfer; supply chains increasingly global; production costs (lower wages favor labor-intensive crops) FY 2008 import values for products driving most long-term growth Horticultural products $34.8 billion (fruit & vegs $17.5 bil, wine & beer $8.5 bil) Snack foods $5.2 bil, beef & pork $4.2 bil, vegoils $4.5 bil, dairy products $3.2 bil Key observations for FY 2008 – imports rise $6 bil to record $76 bil Import volume growth slows slightly with weaker dollar and consumer spending, but higher prices keep value growing near the faster pace seen in the past 5 years Grains, oilseeds & products add $4 billion in 2008, mostly due to higher prices, but some vol increase too Tropical products (natural rubber, coffee & other products) continue to grow above trend with strong global demand and record to near-record prices Top Ag Markets and Ag Suppliers (NAFTA) Top Ag Markets… Top Ag Suppliers… Canada Canada Mexico EU EU Mexico 2008f 2007 2002 Japan China 0 2 4 6 8 10 Billion Dollars 12 14 2008f 2007 2003 China Brazil 16 0 2 4 6 8 10 Billion Dollars 12 14 16 18 Agriculture & The WTO Objectives and Obligations Increase Market Access Eliminate Export Subsidies Reduce Trade Distorting Domestic Support 2002 – 2005 * $10.2 billion ( $6.9 - $12.9) Dairy: $ 4.9 billion Sugar: $1.1 billion $19.1 billion U.S. NA Without Acreage Controls Direct Payments Food Stamps Etc. * Important that CCP’s and Crop Ins are in non-product specific category 2002 – 2005 $58.3 - $71.8 How Much are Trade-Distorting Crop Supports The Issue for the Future? As Reported 10/4/07 Prior to this notice, the U.S. last Notified the WTO of its domestic support levels in March 2004 for the years 2000-2001. The Key for Future Compliance U.S. Sugarcane & Sugar Beet U.S. Dairy Production 2002 Description of basic products including non?product-specific (AMS) Calculated AMS Mil. dol. 1 2 Value of production 5 per cent of Amount1 value Mil. dol. Mil. dol. 3 4 Current Total AMS Mil. dol. 5 Apples and pears Barley 3.577 3.932 1,827.81 605.635 91.39 30.282 2 Blueberries, wild 0.208 17.86 0.893 2 Cattle and calves 136 27,097.53 1,354.88 2 0.002 187.083 1,186.79 6,304.76 0.018 0.039 2.374 1,109.61 0.912 20,882.45 4,393.48 20,720.48 36.842 228.338 36.822 29,428.53 0.046 1,044.12 219.674 1,036.02 1.842 11.417 1.841 1,471.43 2 Chickpeas Corn Cotton Dairy Dry peas Honey Lentils Livestock 3 Minor Oil Seed: Canola Crambe Safflower Sunflower Mohair Oats Peanuts Rice Sheep and lamb Sorghum Soybeans Sugar Tobacco Wheat Wool Total 2 1,186.79 6,304.76 2 2 2.374 2 2 0.091 0.114 162.719 1.867 8.136 0.093 0.114 2.241 32.373 1.619 2.241 0.006 4.84 0.065 65.995 711.572 294.595 3.432 212.078 599.714 979.628 14.73 0.172 10.604 29.986 48.981 2 23 3.908 52.479 1,327.80 70.408 22.448 7.818 313.946 855.14 15,252.69 2,104.47 1,686.81 5,637.42 21.689 15.697 42.757 762.635 105.224 84.34 281.871 1.084 11,227.17 194,572.22 Non-product-specific AMS 5,100.54 (from Supporting Table DS:9 below) Total:Current AMS 2 4.84 2 65.995 711.572 23 2 2 1,327.80 2 2 7.818 9,637.30 9,728.61 2 Total 9,637.30 79% 2003 Description of basic products including non?productspecific (AMS) Calculated AMS Mil. dol. 1 Barley Chickpeas Corn Cotton Dairy Dry peas Grapes Honey Lentils Livestock Lychee Minor Oil Seed: Canola Crambe Sunflower Mohair Oats Olives Peanuts Potatoes Rice Sorghum Soybeans Sugar Tobacco Wheat Wool Total 2 Value of production 5 per cent of Amount1 value Mil. dol. Mil. dol. 3 4 Current Total AMS 5 2 1.051 0.113 232.619 434.914 4,736.81 14.07 0.122 0.031 0.007 0.8 0.075 755.14 0.912 24,476.80 6,295.76 21,381.32 39.352 2,609.29 255.791 41.407 34,572.92 5.603 37.757 0.046 1,223.84 314.788 1,069.07 1.968 130.464 12.79 2.07 1,728.65 0.28 7.186 0.056 159.849 1.168 7.992 0.058 2 0.346 4.231 3.408 0.622 21.037 0.65 503.036 17.118 24.592 1,249.84 19.022 107.421 7.012 316.214 3.435 224.91 48.289 799.428 2,685.82 1,628.95 964.978 18,013.75 2,268.30 1,576.44 7,929.04 28.126 15.811 0.172 11.246 2.414 39.971 134.291 81.447 48.249 900.688 113.415 78.822 396.452 1.406 2 7,386.19 2,800.69 216,478.10 Non-product-specific AMS (from Supporting Table 10,823.91 DS:9 below) Total: Current Total AMS Mil. dol. 0.113 2 434.914 4,736.81 14.07 2 2 2 2 2 2 4.231 2 2 2 2 503.036 2 2 1,249.84 2 2 7.012 6,950.03 2 6,950.03 86% 2005 Description of basic products including non?product-specific (AMS) Calculated AMS Mil. dol. 1 2 Avocados Barley Chickpeas Corn Cotton Dairy Dry peas Grapes Honey Lentils Livestock Minor Oil Seed: Canola Sunflower Mohair Oats Orchards and vineyards Peanuts Rice Sorghum Soybeans Sugar Wheat Wool Total Value of production Amount1 5 per cent of value Mil. dol. Mil. dol. 3 4 Mil. dol. 5 2 0.007 46.196 0.304 4,490.00 1,620.70 5,149.25 37.431 0.811 0.174 11.375 0.3 353.808 527.633 2.262 22,198.47 5,695.22 26,873.95 66.046 3,489.12 157.795 53.64 39,237.67 17.69 26.382 0.113 1,109.92 284.761 1,343.70 3.302 174.456 7.89 2.682 1,961.88 13.518 18.214 1.542 0.043 152.033 487.654 4.851 195.15 7.602 24.383 0.243 9.758 13.518 0.127 89.185 132.509 139.751 69.168 1,199.21 28.924 6.624 16,432.87 843.435 1,741.72 737.038 17,269.14 1,947.68 7,171.44 26.272 821.644 42.172 87.086 36.852 863.457 97.384 358.572 1.314 2 13,055.37 5,862.29 236,001.01 11,800.05 Non-product-specific AMS (from Supporting Table DS:9 below) Total: Total AMS Current Total AMS 46.196 0.304 4,490.00 1,620.70 5,149.25 37.431 2 2 11.375 2 2 1.542 2 89.185 132.509 139.751 2 1,199.21 2 6.624 12,937.60 2 Current 12,937.60 48% Revised draft modalities for agriculture Ambassador Crawford Falconer Chairman Committee on Agriculture, Special Session B. Final Bound Total Ams: A Tiered Formula 1. Tiered reduction formula (a) Reductions in Final Bound Total AMS 11. The Final Bound Total AMS shall be reduced in accordance with the following tiered formula: (a) where the Final Bound Total AMS is greater than US$40 billion, or the equivalent in the monetary terms in which the binding is expressed, the reduction shall be [70] per cent; (b) where the Final Bound Total AMS is greater than US$15 billion and less than or equal to US$40 billion, or the equivalents in the monetary terms in which the binding is expressed, the reduction shall be [60] per cent; (c) where the Final Bound Total AMS is less than or equal to US$15 billion, or the equivalent in the monetary terms in which the binding is expressed, the rate of reduction shall be [45] per cent. Problems for the Future? Current Limit: $19.1 Billion With Reduction of 60%: $7.64 Sugar and Dairy AMS Estimates Using USDA Baseline Projections Table 16 U.S. sugar projections 1/ ------------------ -------------------- ------------- ------------------ --------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------Item Units 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ------------------ -------------------- ------------- ------------------ --------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------Sugarbeets Production Sugarcane Production Mil. s. tons 4,444 4,901 4,453 4,114 4,282 4,307 4,400 4,483 4,553 4,612 4,669 4,726 Mil. s. tons 2,955 3,617 3,949 3,739 3,923 3,947 3,989 4,022 4,055 4,085 4,116 4,149 7399.0 8518.0 8402.0 7853.0 8205.0 8254.0 8389.0 8505.0 8608.0 8697.0 8785.0 8875.0 Total Avg Support $ per metric ton 374.79 374.79 374.79 374.79 374.79 374.79 374.79 374.79 374.79 374.79 374.79 374.79 Reference Price 230.82 230.82 230.82 230.82 230.82 230.82 230.82 230.82 230.82 230.82 230.82 230.82 AMS Margin 143.97 143.97 143.97 143.97 143.97 143.97 143.97 143.97 143.97 143.97 143.97 143.97 0.966 1.112 1.097 1.025 1.071 1.078 1.095 1.111 1.124 1.136 1.147 1.159 2009 183.8 9.90 7.26 2.64 4.85232 2010 184.5 9.90 7.26 2.64 4.8708 AMS Billion US $ 1986-88 Average Carribean Price Transportation $202.16 28.66 $230.82 mt USDA Baseline Production Based AMS Estimate 2007 2008 Milk production Bil. lbs. 183.0 183.9 U.S. Support Price 9.90 9.90 WTO Reference Price 7.26 7.26 AMS per unit (cwt) 2.64 2.64 Milk AMS? 4.8312 4.85496 2011 185.9 9.90 7.26 2.64 4.90776 2012 188.0 9.90 7.26 2.64 4.9632 2013 189.2 9.90 7.26 2.64 4.99488 2014 191.1 9.90 7.26 2.64 5.04504 2015 193.2 9.90 7.26 2.64 5.10048 2016 195.7 9.90 7.26 2.64 5.16648 Revised AMS Calculations for Dairy U.S. Dairy AMS, revised version Unit 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Butter AMS Reference price 1/ Purchase price 2/ Production 3/ 1,000 $ $/lb $/lb 1,000 lb 25,121 172,457 325,235 422,402 423,871 458,057 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.73 0.85 0.95 1.05 1.05 1.05 1,256,032 1,231,838 1,355,147 1,242,360 1,246,678 1,347,227 NFDM AMS Reference price 1/ Purchase price 2/ Production 3/ 1,000 $ $/lb $/lb 1,000 lb 464,511 353,444 392,248 238,356 211,857 177,916 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.97 0.90 0.90 0.80 0.80 0.80 1,451,597 1,413,777 1,568,991 1,589,041 1,412,381 1,186,104 Cheese AMS Reference price 4/ Purchase price Production 3/ 1,000 $ $/lb $/lb 1,000 lb 1,446,362 1,404,658 1,443,221 1,406,013 1,536,490 1,561,005 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 2,828,240 2,746,691 2,822,099 2,749,342 3,004,477 3,052,415 Cheese AMS Reference price 5/ 1,000 $ $/lb Revised AMS 4/ Revised AMS 5/ 1,000 $ 1,000 $ 1,935,994 1,930,559 2,160,704 2,066,772 2,172,217 2,196,978 1,313,781 1,326,287 1,539,843 1,461,917 1,511,232 1,525,447 Old AMS (MPS only) 1,000 $ 4,377,477 4,483,202 4,479,776 4,509,388 4,647,660 4,715,000 824,149 0.84 800,386 0.84 822,360 0.84 801,158 0.84 875,505 0.84 889,474 0.84 1/ From original U.S. AMS dairy calculations. Average for 1986/87-1988/89 marketing years, CIF. 2/ Estimated calendar year. 3/ Cheddar, calendar year from NASS. 4/ Northern Europe fob price, cheddar, low spring price, from FAS dairy circulars. Adjusted by average freight and handling charge (12.5 cents per pound) from ITC report on tariff equivalents, April 1990. 5/ Northern Europe fob price, cheddar, high fall price, from FAS dairy circulars. Adjusted by average freight and handling charge (12.5 cents per pound) from ITC report on tariff equivalents, April 1990. Dairy and Sugar Components of AMS With Alternative Dairy Calculation 6 Billion Dollars 5 4 3 Revised Dairy 2 1 Sugar 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 FAPRI3/08 U.S. Amber Box AMS Projections 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 UR AMS Limit $19.1 Billion 17 16 15 14 13 Counter Cyclical Marketing Loan Alt Dairy Sugar $12.9 Billion 2005 12 11 10 9 8 $9.6 Billion 2002 New Doha Limit $7.64 Billion 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $7.6 billion Marketing Loan Benefits About $5 billion The Box for Counter Cyclical Payments With F&V Restrictions (Currently CCP’s Are reported as Non-product specific Amber, exempt under de’minis 5% of total Production Value Trigger) Unlimited? – Place for Direct Payments Non Product Specific Amber Support Subject to De Minimis Exemptions Crop Insurance Has Been in this Categroy De minimis exemption cuts non-binding (2.5% of value of production from 5%) ? 2007 $300 Billion $7.5 Billion $15 Billion Crop Insurance May Be a Problem Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Could Be a Real Problem “Agriculture Deputy Secretary Chuck Conner says that since Congress approved the legislation last week, department analysts have delved deeply into ACRE’s provisions and were troubled by what they found. Assuming a high rate of participation in the program and national corn, wheat and soybean prices at $3.25, $5 and $7 per bushel, respectively, USDA could pay out around $16 billion to ACRE participants who produce those three crops in 2009 alone, says USDA.” What about other Doha Round Changes? Other Issues • Product Specific Limits WORKING DOCUMENT No. 6 FINAL BOUND TOTAL AMS: A TIERED FORMULA For the United States only, the product-specific AMS limits specified in the schedule shall be the resultant of applying proportionately the average actual product-specific AMS support in the [1995-2004] period to the average actual total AMS for the Uruguay Round implementation period (1995-2000). WORKING DOCUMENT No. 8 BLUE BOX For the United States, the limits to the value of support that may be provided to specific products under paragraph 1(b) above shall be [110] [120] per cent of the average product-specific amounts that would result from applying proportionately the legislated maximum permissible expenditure under the 2002 Farm Bill for specific products to the overall Blue Box limit of 2.5 per cent of the average total value of agricultural production. FAPRI3/08 FAPRI3/08 FAPRI3/08 FAPRI3/08 If the Future is Certain High Prices make government commodity supports $0.00 to below $1.0 billion, well within new commitments. Dairy and Sugar can be accommodated. ACRE Program just a safety net. Direct Payments must remain in green box, $5.2 billion, even if planting restrictions have to go (cotton case). Countercyclical payments notified as blue box, within commitments. De minimis exemption cuts non-binding (2.5% of value of production from 5%) if Crop Insurance payments do go through the Roof. What Will The Future Bring? What Will The Future Bring? Ta b le 3 5 — CCC Ne t Ou t la y s b y Co m m o d it y a n d Fu n ct io n 2000 2001 2002 Fi scal y e ar 2003 2004 3,369 3,189 4,456 4,306 5,057 0 0 11,046 1 0 6,419 460 446 461 0 1,476 215 4,105 0 0 5,455 -1 0 5,293 921 237 820 0 1,625 229 3,968 0 0 -1 -2 0 5,345 0 182 7 0 1,785 249 38 25,619 64 18,748 1,913 1,251 328 668 1999 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 1,246 5,801 5,959 4,172 3,018 -294 4,151 1,743 167 -1 1,795 693 0 455 1,323 0 1,785 159 -11 5,289 809 -3 -2 221 461 0 363 20 0 1,786 96 1 5,235 2,772 2 0 9 3,856 0 582 9 939 1,788 22 181 11,714 237 12,214 124 9,153 110 15,325 -1 4,962 4,356 0 0 352 4,630 0 372 12 967 1,830 22 0 66 17,568 -1 4,081 2,818 0 0 200 189 0 0 15 960 1,890 28 18 154 10,352 0 5,202 1,091 0 0 0 150 0 0 0 960 1,926 0 22 325 9,676 1,848 230 1,867 804 2,395 178 880 784 201 120 478 -1,310 17 -1,006 251 -2,248 132 -258 73 -4,269 205 -3,948 615 -3,362 619 -2,508 62 81 122 119 167 143 125 103 114 13 323 4 210 165 234 370 60 736 216 242 362 5 428 -2,047 282 302 55 218 -96 -329 388 81 49 367 -17 -121 6 88 65 -683 46 10 71 -1,443 2,053 39 14 366 -629 356 53 4 426 227 304 52 0 195 236 1,106 19,223 32,265 22,105 15,680 17,425 10,575 20,187 20,211 13,785 13,190 Fu n ct io n Pr i ce su p p o r t lo an s (n e t ) 1,455 3 Cash d i r e ct p ay m e n t s: Pr o d u ct i o n f le xi b i li t y co n t r act 5,476 Di r e ct p ay m e n t 0 Co u n t e r -cy cli cal p ay m e n t 0 Mar ke t lo ss assi st an ce 3,011 De f i ci e n cy -3 Dai r y m ar ke t i n co m e lo ss 0 Lo an d e f i ci e n cy 3,360 Oi lse e d 0 Co t t o n Use r m ar ke t i n g 280 Ot h e r 1 To b acco Bu y -Ou t Pay m e n t s 0 Co n se r v at i o n Re se r v e Pr o g r am 1,435 Ot h e r co n se r v at i o n p r o g r am s 247 Em e r g e n cy Fo r e st r y Co n sr v at . Re sr v . No n i n su r e d Assi st an ce (NAP) 54 To t al d i r e ct p ay m e n t s 13,861 1988-2005 cr o p d i sast e r Em e r g e n cy li v e st o ck/t r e e /DRAP li v e st o ck i n d e m n ./f o r ag e assi st . Pu r ch ase s (n e t ) Pr o ce ssi n g , st o r ag e , an d t r an sp o r t at i o n Exp o r t d o n at i o n s o ce an t r an sp o r t at i o n Op e r at i n g e xp e n se 1 In t e r e st e xp e n d i t u r e Exp o r t p r o g r am s 2 Ot h e r To t al $ m illio n 1. Does not include CCC Transfers to General Sales Manager. 2. Includes Export Guarantee Program, Direct Export Credit Program, CCC Transfers to the General Sales Manager, Market Access (Promotion) Program, starting in FY 1991 and starting in FY 1992 the Export Guarantee Program - Credit Reform, Export Enhancement Program, Dairy Export Incentive Program, and Technical Assistance to Emerging Markets, starting in FY 2000 Foreign Market Development Cooperative Program and Quality Samples Program, starting in FY 2003 Specialty Crops. 3. Includes cash payments only. Excludes generic certificates in FY 8696. E = Estimated in FY 2008 President's Budget based on 'November 2006' supply and demand estimates. The CCC outlays shown for 2002-2008 include the impact of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002, which was enacted on May 13, 2002. Minus (-) indicates a net receipt (excess of repayments or other receipts over gross outlays of funds). FY 2004-FY 2005 includes revised dairy outlays. Information contact: Richard Pazdalski Farm Service Agency-Budget at (202) 720-3674 or [email protected]. The Questions Is Do You Believe The Future is Certain?