Transcript Changes in C stocks related to land use change (i)

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Greenhouse gas emissions along
livestock supply chains and options
for mitigation
GAA, 4th MSP meeting
Ottawa, 18 October 2013
Pierre Gerber, Senior Policy Officer, FAO-AGA
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FAO-AGA’s work on GHG emissions in the
livestock sector
• Goal: identify low emission pathways for the livestock
sector
• Specific objectives:
▫ Produce disaggregated assessments of global GHG emissions
and related mitigation potential
▫ Carry out economic analyses of mitigation costs and benefits
▫ Engage in multi-stakeholder initiatives on methods and
practice change
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Preparation team
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Jeroen Dijkman
Benjamin Henderson
Alexander Hristov (PSU)
Michael MacLeod (SRUC)
Harinder Makkar
Anne Mottet
Carolyn Opio
Henning Steinfeld
Theun Vellinga (WUR)
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Global Livestock Environment Assessment
Model – GLEAM: main features
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Life Cycle Assessment based modelling
Cradle to retail, all major sources of emissions included
Computes emissions at local level (cells on a map)
Can generate averages and ranges at different scales
Developed at FAO, in collaboration with other partners
• Allows for scenario analysis
• Now used for the quantification of GHG emissions; will be expanded to
other livestock-environment interactions (e.g. land use, nutrients,
water)
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GHG emissions from global livestock supply chains
Total calculated emissions:
7.1 Gt CO2-eq, 14.5% of
anthropogenic emissions
Global feed ration
Second grade
crops
2%
Other
edible*
9%
Grains
9%
By-products**
9%
Crop residues
26%
Grass and
other
roughages
44%
Swill
1%
* Cassava, beans and soybeans
** Bran, oilseed meals, pulp, molasses and wet distiller grains
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Estimated global emission intensities (Ei)
kg CO2-eq per kg protein
500.00
450.00
400.00
350.00
80% of
Prod.
300.00
Average
50% of
prod
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
Beef
Cattle milk
Small
Small
ruminant meat ruminant milk
Pork
Chicken meat Chicken eggs
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GHG emissions are losses
• CH4 emissions are energy losses
▫ Total enteric methane emissions : equivalent to 144 Mt oil equivalent per year
▫ Total manure methane emissions: equivalent to 29 Mt oil equivalent per year
• N2O losses are N losses from manure and fertilizers
▫ Manure N2O emissions (direct and indirect) from manure application on crops and
application on pasture: 3.2 Mt of N
• CO2 emissions are related to fossil fuel use and organic matter losses
▫ Energy use efficiency can be improved in many systems
▫ Soil organic matter is key to land productivity
 There is a strong link between GHG emission intensity and natural
resource use efficiency
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Mitigation potential (i)
Approach:
1. Statistical analysis of emission intensity gaps
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Distribution of intensive broiler supply chains according to
their emission intensity in temperate zones of East and
Southeast Asia
Modeled emission intensity gap
100,000
Number of pixels (spatial units)
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
< 10
10-15
15-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-60
60-70
70-80
80-90 90-100
>100
kg CO2-eq.kg meat protein-1
20 to 30% mitigation effect if producers in a given region, farming
system and agro-ecological zone would apply the production practices
of the 10th to 25th quantiles with lowest emission intensity.
Mitigation potential (iii)
Approach:
1. Statistical analysis of emission intensity gaps
2. Modeling of potential soil C sequestration in
collaboration with Colorado State University
Results - potential soil C sequestration
• Maximum technical soil C sequestration potential for
grassland is estimated to be approx. 0.4 GtCO2-eq per
year over a 20 year period - adjustment of grazing
pressure (offtake rate).
• Additional 0.2 GtCO2-eq per year over a 20 year period
- sowing legumes in some grasslands.
• Around half of the grasslands are under-utilized and half
are over utilized.
• Optimal management increases absolute levels of forage
offtake in most areas (overall, reduction in the level of
offtake occurs in only 25% of the grassland area).
Mitigation potential (iii)
Approach:
1. Statistical analysis of emission intensity gaps
2. Modeling of potential soil C sequestration in
collaboration with Colorado State University
3. Case studies in selected regions/farming
systems
Case studies: mitigation packages
Commercial pigs
- Manure management
- Energy efficiency
-Feed quality,
- Animal health & husbandry
Mixed dairy OECD
- Fat supplementation
- Anaerobic digestion
- Energy efficiency
Mixed dairy
Small ruminants
Specialized beef
- Grazing management
- Animal health
- Feed quality
- Animal health & husbandry
- Feed quality
- Animal health & husbandry
- Grazing management
Case studies: mitigation potential
(emission intensities – constant output)
14-17%
Mixed dairy OECD
-54 to -66 Mt CO2
18-29%
Specialized beef
-190 to -310 Mt CO2
Commercial pigs
-52 to -71 Mt CO2
28-36%
38%
Mixed dairy
27-41%
-120 Mt CO2-eq
Small ruminants
-8 Mt to -12 Mt CO2
Production increases by 7 to 40 percent in all case studies, except OECD
• Overwhelming effects of feed, health and energy generation/efficiency
• Grazing management : C sequestration and productivity gains
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What are the main strategies for the
reduction of emission intensities?
• Ruminants
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animal level: feed digestibility and balancing, health, genetics
herd level: maintenance to production ratio in animal cohorts
production unit level: grazing management
supply chain level: energy use efficiency, waste minimization and
recycling
• Monogastrics
▫ animal level: feed balancing, health, genetics
▫ production unit level: source low Ei feed and energy
▫ supply chain level: energy use efficiency, waste minimization and
recycling
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Key policy areas for action
• Education, extension and agricultural support services.
• Incentives, access to capital and risk management.
• Research and development.
▫ refine existing technologies, and technical itineraries
▫ supply new mitigation technologies/practices.
• National policies, including Nationally Appropriate
Mitigation Actions (NAMAs).
• International agreements.
Emissions intensity vs net emissions
Estimated emission intensity reduction potential (30%) lower
than expected production growth (70%)
• conservative estimate of mitigation potential
• emission intensity gains will have effects on production
levels and costs
• interventions on demand side may reduce production
growth rates
Main findings
1. The livestock sector plays an important role in climate change. GHG emissions
are estimated at 7.1 GtCO2-eq per year, about 14.5 percent of all humaninduced emissions.
2. The sector’s emissions could be brought down by about 30 percent just
through the wider use of existing best practices and technologies.
3. Substantial emission reductions can be achieved across all species,
systems and regions.
4. Strong correlation between mitigation and resource use efficiency:
possible environmental co-benefits .
5. Strong correlation between mitigation and productivity gains,
especially among ruminant systems operating at low productivity.
6. Implementation will require education, awareness raising and
incentives for technology transfer.
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QVID TVM
• Support practice change (GAA)
▫ Test some of the options and related institutional
frameworks on the ground
▫ Support development of livestock NAMAs
• Investigate the economics of mitigation
• Improve, update GLEAM to reduce uncertainty and
measure progress (LEAP, GRA, CIRAD, WUR)
• Progressively include more environmental categories
in GLEAM (nutrients, land, biodiversity, water)