Transcript I400 No Big Data - Community Grids Laboratory Web Sites

I400/590 No more
Malls?
Geoffrey Fox
April 7 2014
Posting Assignment
• Will Big Data destroy Shopping Malls?
• Traditional stores are typically seeing declining sales. Traditional
commerce companies are only getting growth from online.
• For example in 2013 Best Buy online sales increased but instore
purchases declined 15%
• By 2020 it is projected that 65% media, 50% electronics, 30%
furniture and 25% clothes will be purchased online
• Only food and beverages sales are expected to stay dominantly in
bricks and mortar
• Further consider implications of long tail described in unit
16 (first e-commerce unit) that describes changes in what is
purchased. This implies reduction in sales of the top few
items but increases in otherwise less popular items
• What does this mean for society, real estate, IT, IT jobs.
Given it is presumably inevitable, how do we make the best
of it?
No more malls I
• Add people: A home may look very promising online but if an actual person
has better knowledge about it, then he or she trumps the online real estate
system. We should utilize and take advantage of the social media platforms
to maintain the benefits and authenticity of person-to-person information
sharing.
• Shopping Malls, which generally contain specialty stores and restaurants,
could very possibly not exist in the future. The one thing that might alter
these predictions would be holiday shopping. Many stores who offer special
deals and extremely low prices, like Black Friday and post-Christmas sales,
have sales that are continuously growing year after year.
• E-commerce is an extremely fast growing industry and I believe shopping
malls will only remain relevant for a short period of time.
• One of the biggest advantages of e-commerce is that it levels the playing
field for all retailers.
• It is not surprising to see the decline in physical shopping center traffic.
There are already clothing stores that just carry a few sizes of each article of
clothing, for customers to try on, but not buy in-house. Instead, customers
place orders and their clothes are delivered to them directly.
No more malls II
• I truly believe that traditional stores will continue to see declines in
their sales due to the growth of online shopping.
• One way to make the best of the situation is use this issue as
something to help e-commerce grow, as well as helping to enhance
online shopping websites and the experience of online shopping for
consumers.
• The next question then becomes, what will propel this e-commerce
revolution? The answer to that is in the forms of businesses already
existing - business and software consulting firms that run their own
analytical software on businesses to increase profits. This sector will
have a virtuous cycle lifestyle with all of the e-commerce, propelling it
to further popularity while e-commerce in return will provide profits
for them. It is a very interesting model to study and seeing the
limitless possibilities for businesses to succeed is exciting.
No more malls III
• Online shopping replacing physical shopping is something that isn't at
all surprising that it has reached the extent that it has. Who doesn't
enjoy being able to buy all their assorted toys and gadgets from the
comfort of their own home?
• Malls and similar stores will of course potentially remain because they
do still serve purposes, just not to the same extent that they used to.
Physical stores still allow a place for friends and/or family to gather
and have a day out without being forced into spending too much
money.
• Shopping malls are going to become less and less popular amongst
many customers simply because it is easier to shop online.
• Businesses will have to adapt to the changing internet landscape, and
will most likely take on new business models to attract customers to
maybe not purchase produces, but offer services that otherwise
would not be available online.
No more malls IV
• My friends and I all agree that going to the store is a part of the fun
experience of shopping. I think many females like looking through
racks of clothes and trying on clothes for their friend's opinion. There
are also plenty of things that are bought online that could end up not
fitting for example because the image wasn't a good representation.
• Malls must stress the social experience
• Years ago I thought that electronic books and e-readers would
eliminate the existence of the printed book. However, for whatever
reason the printed book remains in our lives. Now we see a similar
threat to shopping malls. Electronic versions of malls are threating to
replace the physical shopping mall. I do believe that the mall, as the
book did, remain in our lives. Perhaps with less shoppers than before,
but the elimination of the shopping mall is something that won’t
happen for several more generations, because there are still people
that would rather go out shopping with friends. For them it’s more
about the experience of being around other people than the great
deals they get or products they buy.
No more malls V
• The idea that malls will ever be completely taken over by the ecommerce does not seem plausible to me. I feel that there the
clothing industry has a large following of in store purchases because it
is difficult to buy clothing without trying it on. I feel that e-commerce
will continue to take over many other industries however.
• I still see malls as an important and viable option as it is about the
experience in itself of trying things on and enjoying it in person.
• I think e-commerce will continue to grow and impact industries
especially with the growing popularity of 3D printers having limitless
possibilities.
• Even though e-commerce is rapidly expanding, I don't think it will
cause shopping malls to cease to exist anytime soon. Consumers have
always enjoyed the actual shopping experience, where they can try on
clothes or view other items and see how they look in reality. However,
e-commerce has given several small businesses a chance to reach a
larger audience, while more prominent companies have the
opportunity to broaden their inventory and thus make more profit.
No more malls VI
• A lot of the time people go to the mall with their friends to have something
to do and someplace to go. Large malls can also be very big employers in
communities. Taking malls away could be detrimental to local economies
because the money that people would be spending at the mall, including
taxes, is now going directly to the companies. All in all, I think that unless
society enhances enough to create something to mimic physical experiences,
malls will still stand.
• This certainly means that IT related jobs will expand with the enhancement
of recommender systems and the increase in online purchasing, but
economic/real estate issues will probably arise if and when some physical
stores and malls are forced to close their doors.
• I noticed that there were basically two extremes to different apartment
companies. Either they had a really nice website that obviously had a web
designer involved, or the company's idea of tech savvy is email and don't
really have a website at all... I don't think it real estate will ever reach a point
where it is solely online because you should always look at a place you are
going to live and check it out, but for the initial hunting, I think it is getting
more and more important to have an online presence. During my
experience, the places I could find online were my first options.
No more malls VII
• If consumers just buy what they need at these cheap prices we will
see numerous industries go under, but if people are open to spending
because it's cheap it could bring some competition back into the
market, because businesses will need to create better products in
order to sell to more people since they can't sell at a higher price and
stay in the market
• All around the experience of shopping in a mall is just much better
because you can physically see what you are about to buy, whereas a
picture of a clothing article online could be very deceiving.
• On one hand, the long tail of ecommerce allows for a wider range of
products to be sold. This in turn allows for smaller companies that
can't get into big-box stores to survive and thrive. On the downside, it
is truly amazing to see the loss of traffic in malls. The wide use of
malls has been ingrained in America for the last 30-50 years. This
reduction in traffic has been a growing trend, but I believe it will level
off in the years to come. Finally, I think it is evident that this
ecommerce has played a big role already in commercial real estate
prices. Since the last downturn, residential real estate has come back
nicely whereas commercial real estate has lagged.
No more malls VIII
• I do not feel that malls will disappear. I know I personally like to try on
or try out certain items before I purchase them and that is not
possible with online shopping. But I did find it interesting that ecommerce has allowed the small guy an opportunity to attack the
shopping market. It will be interesting to see how this will play out in
the future as more and more shopping goes to online.
• Since purchasing the products from online is somewhat cheaper than
shopping mall, people would still like to go out to shopping mall and
look around even though they are not going to buy anything.
• I would agree with everyone that sometimes it is much better to look
at products in person as opposed to the online market. For this
reason, there will always be a need for in-store sales. I do not think
that big data will ever destroy shopping malls.
• On the other hand there are a lot of people out there that refuse to
buy things online because they prefer being able to see it in hand. I
understand it completely but I think both have a lot of benefits. This is
why I don’t think malls will be shutting down any time soon. People
like seeing and touching things for themselves. I don’t think we will
ever have an all e-commerce world.
No more malls IX
• Both methods of shopping has its perks, therefore, they will coexist in the
future. Though big data has completely changed ecommerce I believe its
effect is limited in time. As for real estate, I believe big data's effect on it is
minor in comparison.
• Shopping malls are still essential for clothing and apparel shopping and even
though e-commerce will continue to be popular there are still those that see
going to the shopping mall as a form of entertainment.
• The increase in online shopping is not surprising in any way whatsoever. I
think shopping malls will probably be completely shut down within 20-30
years. Online shopping has proven to be easier and with quick delivery
systems such as Amazon prime people are able to receive things they order
the next day.
• I agree that the number of shopping mall will be decrease in the future due
to the continuously declining sales. Shopping online allows people to save
their time and money. People can compare the price easily from one online
store to another as well as filter out irrelevant items and go straight to what
they want. In my view, one advantage of traditional clothing stores is I can try
the cloth on and see if it fits. However, with the developed technology, I can
see customers "try on cloth" with apps provide by the online store which
allow them to upload their own pictures and try on different cloths. I
No more malls X
• I think that people will always want to have the physical store but
believe that stores will have to also revolutionize the way the sell
things. No longer can items be sold how they have been for years, I
think with the use of big data, the shopping experience will be altered.
For example, the use of Bluetooth Low Energy Technology is already
transforming retail and will continue to transform and advance retail.
• Not only is it very easy to find a product when shopping online, but
buyers also get to enjoy the convenience and comfort of sitting at
home while making all sorts of purchases.
But having said that, I do not believe that shopping malls will
disappear any time soon because there are many things such as
groceries, food etc. which a person just cannot buy online. Not only
that, but sometimes people have an urgent need for different items,
and shopping at a mall is the only option for them to go with, since
getting the item shipped can take a bit of time.
No more malls XI
• There are just so many more advantages to online shopping vs. online
malls. Online products are almost always cheaper, easier to find, and
you can compare them against other products. I am sure there will be
apps developed that make online shopping even more appealing but I
do think it will be a long time before brick and mortar malls
completely disappear.
• People do not want to drive to a conventional mall and shop that
way. Of course, going to a mall or store also means you are most likely
going to pay retail. Online, online websites are competing for your
money, meaning prices are dropping. In other words, one will most
always find a better deal on any goods they desire. Also, they do it all
in the comfort of their homes, and the item is shipped to them
quickly. Therefore, eCommerce will continue to grow, allowing people
to save time from going shopping at a physical store, save gas, and
ultimately get goods for a far better price.
No more malls XII
• Throughout my experience, it is clear that the common mall is beginning to
fail as a shopping experience. Online versions of the stores (e-commerce)
and third party fashion sites that resell the projects are beginning to
succeed. The idea of driving to a mall, finding parking, and waiting in line to
purchase something doesn't appeal to people even if it creates a more social
environment. Sites like zappos allow you to return shoes for free if they don't
fit and will even overnight you an exchange. The appeal is beginning to lack
and I believe in the next few years that it will no longer provide the
"american experience" that it has before and online shopping will be
dominant.
• . Most clothing stores will continue to see traffic since it can be hard to find
the "perfect" fit for clothing articles online. In addition, stores like this will
continue to do well for the social aspect of it. On the other hand, I do see a
continual decline of traffic and sales for brick-and-mortar stores that sell
things such as electronics. The simplicity and convenience will deter people
from going to the store to buy these items. I don't think that there will be no
more malls. Instead, I see a decrease of the importance of malls. No longer is
it "I need to go to the mall to buy X" but rather, "Can I buy X online? No, ok I
guess I'll go to the mall"
No more malls XIII
• I think physical stores will never go away but I do think they will
change a lot over the next 10-15 years. I think you will go to the store
to try things on or see what they look like then from an app you will
buy the item online and it will be shipped to you. I think there is a
certain aspect of shopping that people will never give up. People like
the interaction and they like to be able to physically feel or see an item
in person.
• I think that more and more physical stores will disappear throughout
the future ahead however I believe that the big players in each
industry will keep their doors open. For example, Best Buy is thought
of to be as the 'showroom' for electronics and TV's. People like myself
my visit a local (full retail) location to demo or look at items however
we don't make the purchase there. I found a TV that I liked but then
bought it online through a distributor for a whole 1/3 off of Best Buy's
price
No more malls XIV
• To sum up I would think that eCommerce has a lot of impact on traditional
businesses but also has resulted in new job opportunities as well as helping
consumers save good amount of money on their purchases. But as a
consumer, I would still like to go into the stores, have a feel of the product
before I purchase the product. Though eCommerce might grow multi-fold,
the traditional stores who change their business models according to the
consumer requirements and eCommerce businesses will stay.
• I believe that both the shopping paradigms will co-exist in the future to
come. The only difference will be the shift of balance, from real world
shopping to online shopping. The entire world can never be an alleCommerce world. Personally, if I want to buy clothes, I prefer going to the
shop personally. It helps me to get the sense of what I am buying and that
the stuff I am buying is worth every penny. This is something that is of
essence to the common man. Online shopping portals have eased the pains
associated with shopping, it gives the consumer an awful lot of choices at
the best prices. This in turn allows the long tail of eCommerce to put in the
market a wide range of products allowing the small businesses to thrive and
run. The online portals offer a variety of offers to the consumers thus wooing
them to shop more and more.
No more malls XV
• So, even though we have all the techniques that make our lives easy, it is
always better and sometimes necessary to fall back on the old fashioned
ways to make correct decisions. The only difference now and then is that the
'then' methods have failed to maintain their dominance and the 'now'
methods have taken somewhat control of the things. However, even with
this shift, the two timelines remain as an integral part thus making both an
important way of life.
• Why Big Data WOULD NOT destroy Shopping Malls:
1) E-commerce is not for everyone:
2) Shipping cost predicament:
3) Shopaholics and Skeptics still exist:
4) Some Products can’t be sold through Customer Reviews alone:
• At this rate, many data scientists have predicted that in the future, only
through a combination of physical and online shopping retailers would be
able to retain their place in the market.
• These days it is very common for the retail shops to come with their online
websites. It is often found that the choices offered on the online portal are
lot more than the options that are available in the stores. Also most of the ecommerce websites have a very fair return policy. Inspite of these trends I
feel that people will be more comfortable buying their groceries from the
traditional stores rather than ordering them online. I feel that this trends will
be constant irrespective of the growing influence of e-commerce in the other
sectors.
No more malls XVI
• Also there are many products which user feels better to buy from malls as
compared to e-commerce. This is because they can see the product
physically by themselves in the malls or at the location before buying it. The
various products that users prefer to buy from malls compared to ecommerce are clothes, jewelry, car, bikes, flat, plot etc. The disadvantages of
e-commerce is that the products delivery is delayed, users do not experience
the product before buying them, security as it involves financial transaction.
• The simplicity and effort saving of the e-Commerce industry is what entices
me the most. But, it has its downfalls too, like delivery time required (shell a
bit more on it), return of product due to defects or unlikeness, not having
actual feel of the product especially for products like clothes, furniture, etc.
Apart from the downfalls of e-Commerce industry the supremacy of actual
shopping in the malls is something we can't deny. It's like an outing to chill,
relax with your loved ones and friends. Besides having commercial shops and
eateries, the fun of recreational activities and entertainment is prevalent in
malls. Also, not every person is able to or has the means to use digital world.
So, I feel malls are going to prevail in the coming years along with the ecommerce industry. There might come ways to subdue effect of shopping in
the malls. But, no sooner it's going to happen and malls will always stay as
entertainment hub.
No more malls XVII
• Ecommerce has without a doubt made every individual's life easier. But with
online shopping comes the element of risk of buying products without
having a look at
it physically.
• Overall, the concept of "No more malls" might soon become a reality. This is
because most people do not have the time to go to malls and arrange for
delivery of the products they buy. The people prefer to spend the money on
one source, that provides the product and takes care of the delivery.
• There is one area where online shopping loses out and that is in providing
good old fashioned tangible buying experience where you are in contact with
the actual product you are buying. So taking into aspect all the things I think
in the future there will be co-existence of both the sectors with buyers who
will want to buy products from both the markets based on the feasibility.
• E-commerce websites are coming with innovative solutions to lure the online
consumers. To state an example of the efforts of the companies to engage
the consumers is the companies working in the field of virtual reality. For
Shopping malls to exist in the near future they definitely need to come out
with some innovative and engaging experience.
No more malls XVIII
• Also, E-commerce is not feasible for anyone. Even today many people
do not have access to the basic infrastructure required for E-coomerce
and the awareness to the same. Also products like clothing and shoes
as well as fresh produce are better bought in person. Considering
these arguments it is difficult to say that malls will perish, but it also
true that e-commerce has affected the revenue of malls.
• I believe we’re seeing clear signs that the e-commerce revolution is
seriously impacting commercial real estate. Online retailers are
relentlessly gaining share in many retail categories, and offline players
are fighting for progressively smaller pieces of the retail pie. We are
getting ready for the next era in retail—one that will be characterized
by far fewer shops and smaller stores.Companies like Sears ,Macys
and J.C. Penney already closing their retail stores.
• A rapid increase in the number of smartphones, broadband
connections, and innovative payment products, has driven the growth
in online shopping, though security remains the biggest concern
No more malls XIX
• The shopping experience is compromised when completed online. We could
have all our food ingested through a tube, yet we chose to eat because it is
enjoyable. The same applies to shopping.
• E commerce will play an increasingly more important part in the distribution
of retail goods. It will not replace existing fortress malls but will likely
increasingly impact other class malls. It will also play a more significant part
in the planning for future retail space.
• A study by Ryerson University estimated that in Toronto, in 2010, “virtual” space,
representing physical retail space made redundant by the Internet,
totaled approximately 4.6 million sf, or roughly one sf per capita.14. E-commerce
currently accounts for 1.5 to 2.0 sf per capita of the established retail service ratio.
Based on the much more rapid growth in e-commerce compared to traditional
retail, this is projected to grow to 4.0 to 5.0 sf per capita within the next decade.
• I, personally, am thinking of clothes shopping. I don't want to buy clothes
without trying them on first. It's a pain. I see that there are some stores that
are trying a one size of every item strategy but I don't want to try something
on and then wait a week to receive what I just tried on. It is a nice idea but
until I can somehow receive what I just tried on automatically to my closet
then I don't think that stores will disappear so easily.
No more malls XX
• I am not ready to pronounce the death of the traditional brick and
mortar store. According to a report just released by the American
Customer Satisfaction Index (http://www.theacsi.org/news-andresources/press-releases/press-2014/press-release-february-2014),
customers are showing increased satisfaction with traditional brick
and mortar stores such as specialty retail outlets, supermarkets, drug
stores, and gasoline stations, but are showing decreased satisfaction
with online retailers.
• The trend is definitely that online stores are increasing which results in
the decrease of the offline ones. For most goods that people do not
need immediately/fresh, the online stores have many advantages with
cheaper price as the biggest. And as there is obvious increasing in
online shopping, the logistics have seen huge improvements in terms
of time. Online shopping is definitely going to take a big share from
offline malls and stores. But eventually the share of online shopping
will reach some limit because offline malls and stores will always exist
for the real experiences they provide.
No more malls XXI
• Furthermore technology is not only taking customers away from
physical spaces, but it is also augmenting the physical with the virtual
environment. This may see new ways of enhancing the physical
shopping experience that will result in the ‘come-back’ of mall sales in
ways that may not be anticipated at the moment.
• A kind of EBay or Amazon concept, utilizing both the physical and the virtual
environments could catch on. Consumers would evaluate physical products in a
physical space, have the ability to choose a supplier in an augmented virtual
space, and then have the product shipped directly to their home.
• As a consumer, I find it more convenient to shop online than in malls or
stores. Online shopping experience not only provides convenience or
flexibility but also saves time and money and provides a wide array of
options. For example, the options to choose from for a shirt online are more
than in malls. Plus, with emerging technologies where user can now try the
shirt online before purchasing it, brings the mall experience to home.
Certainly, online shopping experience will proliferate in near future driving
the decline in shopping in malls.
No more malls XXII
• This is evident in the fact that many people like to shop even when they are
on vacation. In contrast, online shopping is basically a solitary experience. It
certainly is an efficient way to learn about and buy new goods and services.
However, so long as many consumers still go shopping for more reasons than
just buying new things, online shopping won't completely eliminate
traditional stores. Still, it is possible that malls and stores will decline
noticeably before a new equilibrium is reached.
• I do not see the death of malls. Rather, I feel we may see the death of the
stand-alone Best Buy (or similar) store in favor of stores geographically colocated. Malls provide a way for niche stores to co-locate to provide an
overall breadth of coverage of goods and services. Their is also a
tremendous social aspect that appeals to some shoppers. I think the
downtrend in retail and the upswing in online sales is due to a couple of
significant factors:
1)
Online sales were predominantly tax free in the last 10 years so consumers
realized up to 11% savings by buying online.
2) The shoppers who do not enjoy the social aspect of shopping finally reached full
adoption of online sales as a viable marketplace.
• Given that most states are now enacting internet sales tax (just recently Amazon
and Newegg started taxing Indiana residents) I think we will see a leveling off of
retail decline/online sales growth.
No more malls XXIII
• The mall is a place for teenagers to "hang out". What are
they going to do now on a Friday night or Saturday? Who or
what is going to fill this social need for teenagers to have
some type of social gathering? They are too young to go to
a bar or club, and too old to go to a Chuck E Cheese.
• My personal perspective on this is that maybe we will see a
transition in culture. For too long, we Americans have related to
each other too much through conspicuous consumption, and the
mall is central to that. Maybe it causes teens to be ingrained in
this mentality of conspicuous consumption. Maybe we need to
overcome that. It could be that online consumption allows people
to express more of their personality through their purchases, and
maybe that is the start of a series of events where our purchases
are only a small factor in us expressing ourselves, and we might
relate to each other in a more human way
No
more
malls
XXIV
• My background is in User Experience. I would like to comment on this topic through that
•
•
•
•
•
lens.
Physical stores offer one large advantage over online. They allow the shopper to feel the
good. What looked like an excellent item from afar can clearly be soon to be of poor quality
on closer inspection. Also, many shoppers enjoy the experience of window shopping. They
also can make it a social event.
Contrary to physical shopping, online shopping is a very much a sensory deprived
experience. You usually have 1 to a dozen photos of the item. They may or may not be high
quality. The advantage that online has is detailed information and user reviews.
Let this be a case study.
Today I wanted to buy a book on data warehouses. Here is the series of events for buying
online.
1. Go to amazon.com
2. Search for the book title
3. Find title, check reviews
4. One click buy
5. Book instantly appears in my kindle reader.
If I were to buy it from a mall:
1. Get into my car.
2. Drive 20 minutes to the nearest mall.
3. Find parking.
4. Walk to the book store.
5. Spend 5 minutes tying to find the book.
6. Check out.
It is easy to see why online is winning out. I believe it offers a much more satisfying user
experience.
No more malls XXV
• Lately I’ve read about a couple of strategies to combat the
decline in sales at brick and mortar stores that seem
interesting. One strategy that looks interesting is for
companies to gather more data about the needs of
customers that do come into the bricks and mortar store.
Analysis of the data will better inform the retailer what the
customer wants in a brick and mortar store and what they
are not getting online (Forbes - http://onforb.es/1kDf1Uf).
• Another strategy that is being discussed is the idea of a brick
and mortar store being just one piece in a company’s “omni
channel.” When companies create an omni channel, they
create a single, unified experience for the customer across
all communication channels (http://bit.ly/1iJaSK9 Accenture). I’ve seen a good example of this in my own life.
When my wife went to Macy’s and they were out of a color
of shoe she wanted, they offered to have the shoe she
wanted sent to our house at no extra cost.
No
more
malls
XXVI
• Big data and E-commerce have significantly impacted the shopping mall culture.
With the rise of E-commerce and how it utilizes and manipulates Big data, a lot of
customers prefer online shopping as against to going to shopping malls. With
lucrative offers, availability of every product and service online, more and more
customers are utilizing the benefits of E-commerce. Big data has been a major
contributor to the success of E-commerce. The voluminous data, its analysis and
processing, its utilization to create recommendation systems and much more have
led to the success of E-commerce. Almost everyone today has an Amazon.com or an
eBay account for shopping online. Groceries, supplies, clothing, electronics, baby
products, toiletries and many more products are available online. Perks like free
shipping, expedited shipping, discounts, one free for one product offers highly
attract customers do shop online.
• Very few products like cement and steel structures need a physical quality check to be done before
they are bought. Such products are available in warehouses and in few shopping malls. But in the
future, these products will also be available for online shopping. This will greatly influence the
shopping mall culture and possible eradicate it.
• I don't think online retail will ever completely kill off in-person shopping. Like many
people, I prefer to be able to touch and interact with many products prior to
purchasing them. However, that doesn't mean I will buy it there at the store. There
was a slogan popular recently something like "Best Buy: Amazon's showroom.“
• My wife on the other hand prefers in-person shopping and purchasing. She doesn't like to wait for
shipping and views that additional time as worth a minimal "convenience fee." However, we will
almost always comparison shop to make sure we are getting a good deal and are never afraid to ask
about price matching.
• I would like to see the malls of the future be inhabited by local vendors, smaller businesses, and
provide a more social atmosphere.