Transcript Document

ESKOM UNIVERSAL
ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY
BUSINESS PLAN
AMEU Convention
Durban
16 October 2007
Anton Theron
Peter Sebola
1. CONTENTS
Introduction
UAP Context
Methodology
Results
Critical Success Factors
Conclusion
2. INTRODUCTION
Our state president, in his state of the nation address
in May 2004, set a target for all South Africans to have
access to electricity by 2012.
Universal Access is not a new concept, been on
government’s agenda since the 90’s.
However, in 2004 a committed timetable was officially
extended to the nation.
3. UAP CONTEXT
2005 DME contracted Eskom for approach.
2006 statistics presented:
- Current:
3 million
- By 2012:
5 million
Workshop identified need for plan to manage
“Universal Access”.
DME contracted Eskom to undertake the work.
3. UAP CONTEXT - Programme
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
PHASE 3
Integrated Network Plan
Composed of 2 Stages
• Short Term
• Medium Term
• High Level
• Planning Proposal
UAP Planning
Proposal
Per Municipality
Long Term
STAGE 1
STAGE 2
Electrification
Integrated
Network Plan
3 months
In line with
Government
Objectives
3-year MTEF cycle
Universal
Access
Business Plan
Master Plans For
Accelerated
Growth
3. UAP CONTEXT – Phase 3 Stage 1
Verify with
the Regions
Gather &
Analyse Data
Input to
Bus. Case
Handover to Electrification and
Network Planning
Electrification and
Network Planning
Analysis & Workshop
with Regions
Compile plans, Input to
Bus. Case
agree with
regions on
plans
Handover to Electrification and
Network Planning
Strategic Studies
Determine best guess growth
figures based on econometric and
demographic modeling
Input to
Bus. Case
PMO
Finalise Business Case
Data Management
4. METHODOLOGY
• Definition of Universal Access
- Grid electrification option of choice with alternate technologies
as interim solution
- Alternate technologies replaced through process of continuous
improvement
• Determining Backlog
- All existing authorised housing units with no access
- Brownfields (Infills) & Greenfields
- Exact locality of backlog
- Census 2001official source for backlog statistics
BACKLOG PROCESS:
• Combination of HELP, DWAF &
Census data
• GIS buffer around all
electrification transformers;
• Count homesteads inside and
outside this buffer;
• Brownfields (Infills) = Inside
count - Prepaid customers
• Greenfields = Outside count existing land rate customers
• Strategic Studies Team
adjusted results for growth and
Census alignment
4. METHODOLOGY Continued…
• Planning Process (3 months)
– Qualitative planning approach
– Workshops (Demand side & Supply side plan)
– Iterative process
• Load & Energy Estimates
– Past load research data
– Function of income
• GIS Platform
4. METHODOLOGY Continued…
Has Capacity
Limited Capacity
No Capacity
5. RESULTS - Backlog per province
600,000
2 million households
500,000
in Eskom supply area
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Backlog
% of Backlog
Eastern Cape
Free State
Northern
Cape
Western
Cape
Kwa-Zulu
Natal
Limpopo
Mpumalanga
Gauteng
North West
548,192
110,679
24,764
28,632
528,060
312,364
124,847
147,094
164,589
28%
6%
1%
1%
27%
16%
6%
7%
8%
5. RESULTS - Accelerated Plan: No constraints
Accelerated Plan
2.5 million connections
by 2012 with growth
500,000
450,000
400,000
Connections
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
7/8
8/9
9/10
Allocated Backlog
10/11
Unallocated backlog
11/12
Growth
12/13
5. RESULTS – Pragmatic Plan with 07/08 Funding
Accelerated Plan
2.5 million connections
by 2012 with growth
600,000
500,000
Connections
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
7/8
8/9
9/10
Allocated Backlog
10/11
Unallocated backlog
11/12
Growth
12/13
5. RESULTS – Total Forecasted Demand
ANTICIPATED DEMAND GROWTH DUE TO UAP
4500.0
4000.0
3500.0
3000.0
MVA
2500.0
2000.0
1500.0
1000.0
500.0
0.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Years
Allocated Backlog
Unallocated Backlog
Growth
Municipal Backlog
TOTALS (incl Munics)
TOTALS (excl Munics)
5. RESULTS - Summary
SCOPE:
HV Substations
HV Lines (km)
19,071
MV Lines (km)
70,528
Trfrs (Units)
20,849
LV Lines (km)
COST:
154
141,381
Wood Poles
6,181,371
Meters
2,540,712
R 24.7 bn
6. CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS
• Inclusion of municipal backlog areas
• Data update (satellite imagery)
• Maintain geospatial planning platform
• Stage 2 to proceed
• Detailed Industry supplier capacity assessment
• Understanding of REDS impact
• Operational expansion
7. CONCLUSION
• UAP shows that although great strides have already
been made, much work still lies ahead to provide
universal access to electricity
• Task is not limited to electrification projects only as we
remember it in the 90’s but also requires substantial
upstream network expansion & strengthening
Thank You
Q’s ?