Transcript Document
November 2003 Investor Meetings New York, NY November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements. AGL Resources wishes to caution readers that the assumptions, which form the basis for the forward-looking statements, include many factors that are beyond AGL Resources’ ability to control or estimate precisely. Those factors include, but are not limited to, the following: changes in industrial, commercial, and residential growth in the service territories of AGL Resources Inc. and its subsidiaries; changes in price and demand for natural gas and related products; impact of changes in state and federal legislation and regulation, including various state public service commissions and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission orders, on the gas and electric industries and on AGL Resources, including the impact of Atlanta Gas Light Company's performance based rate plan; effects and uncertainties of deregulation and competition, particularly in markets where prices and providers historically have been regulated, unknown risks related to nonregulated businesses, and unknown issues such as the stability of certificated marketers; impact of Georgia’s Natural Gas Consumers' Relief Act of 2002; concentration of credit risk in certificated marketers and wholesale services’ counterparties; excess network capacity and demand/growth for dark fiber in metro network areas of AGL Networks’ customers; AGL Networks’ introduction and market acceptance of new technologies and products, as well as the adoption of new networking standards; ability of AGL Networks to produce sufficient capital to fund its business; ability to negotiate new contracts with telecommunications providers for the provision of AGL Networks’ dark-fiber services; industry consolidation; performance of equity and bond markets and the impact on pension fund costs; impact of acquisitions and divestitures; changes in accounting policies and practices issued periodically by accounting standard-setting bodies; direct or indirect effects on AGL Resources’ business, financial condition or liquidity resulting from a change in the company’s credit ratings or the credit ratings of its competitors or counterparties; interest rate fluctuations, financial market conditions, and general economic conditions; uncertainties about environmental issues and the related impact of such issues; impact of changes in weather upon the temperature-sensitive portions of the business; and other risks described in our documents on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. 1 November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors The ATG Value Proposition Annual Total Return 8-10+% Organic Development/ Acquisition 2-3% Base Business Growth 2-3% Dividend Yield 4-5% 2 November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors 2003 Goals 3 Strengthen the company financially Grow around existing assets Execute flawlessly in every business segment Demonstrate a compelling proposition for all our stakeholders November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors 2003 Scorecard Financial Strength $137 million equity offering $225 million debt offering Improved cash generation Increased dividend 4% Interest rate swaps Ratings affirmed and one upgrade Flawless Execution 4 Asset Development Displacing pipelines as an opportunity Formalized project development efforts (Pivotal) Macon peaking pipeline VNG propane pipeline and expansion Compelling Proposition Achieved strong YTD earnings results Zenith of regulatory and governmental relations Received favorable regulatory decisions related to asset management Community giving Increased institutional owner base Record share price Employee satisfaction Increased ownership of SouthStar Refocused dark-fiber business November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors High-Quality, Predictable Utility Operations With Regulatory Stability Georgia – 1.6 million customers Service Areas • Performance-based ratemaking (PBR) • Maintains straight-fixed variable rates (SFV) • Regulatory certainty through 2005 • Authorized return levels very favorable Norfolk Virginia – 250,000 customers Chattanooga Atlanta • Weather normalization (2-year program) • Price stability for customers • Favorable regulatory climate Tennessee – 60,000 customers • WNA adjustment offsets weather impact • Level revenue stream throughout year 5 November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors Regulatory Compact Provides Proper Incentives 16% 14% AGL Resources Utility Operations Return on Equity 12 Months Ended June 30, 2003 Percent of Return 12.00 12% 10% 10.96 11.00 11.06 9.51 10.90 10.75 8% 6% 4% AGLC Authorized (1) Actual VNG CGC Authorized Actual Authorized (1) The authorized ROE is 11.00%. The top of the earnings band is 12.00%. The company also can include 1/2 of VNG synergies in calculating the return prior to sharing – bringing authorized ROE to approximately 12.6%.. (2) Based on actual weather. 6 Actual (2) November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors Unique Features to Note ATLANTA GAS LIGHT COMPANY Environmental Recovery Cost Rider ATLANTA GAS LIGHT COMPANY $45 $40 Pipeline Replacement Program Rider $40 $100 $38 $37 $95 $94 $92 $91 $92 $90 $35 $80 $73 $70 $20 $24 $23 $25 $23 $62 $23 $22 $22 $17 $22 $22 $16 in Millions in Millions $30 $60 $50 $50 $49 $51 $50 $48 $43 $39 $40 $15 $28 $30 $10 $21 $20 $4 $5 $2 $0 $0 2002 2003 2004 Net Expenditures 2005 2006 2007 2008 $0 2009 Revenues and Third Party Recoveries $1 $10 $2 2010 $20 $13 $6 $4 $0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Total Capital 2005 2006 2007 Cash Recovery Notes: Data based on collection year. *Investment of $480 million to be recovered through base rates at end of program • Environmental recovery rider turns cash-flow positive in 2005 • Pipeline replacement program provides return on, and of, capital 7 2008 2009 2010 November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors Sequent Provides Incremental Value From Existing Asset Base IL MD Company Owned LNG Plants Cove Point VA Propane Storage Norfolk TN 8 Three business lines: producer services; transportation asset management; storage arbitrage Asset management sharing arrangements approved in all states Emerging commerce in peaking services and other origination business Chattanooga GA Atlanta TX Elba Island LA Henry Hub Henry Hub Houston Lake Charles Other LNG Terminals Accessible Storage November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors SouthStar Is Now A Stable, Annuity-Quality Business 9 ATG owns 70% but earnings distributed disproportionately 38% market share Stable, maturing business 60% of earnings from fixed charges Focus on maintaining market share; improving customer service; and continuing to implement rigorous controls around credit quality Mktr C 14.9% Others 8.5% Mktr B 14.5% GNG 38.1% Mktr A 24.0% SouthStar’s Net Income CY 2002 CY 2001 $41 million $17 million Project Development Activities November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors Pivotal Energy Development Support goal to grow around existing assets Develop or acquire projects that supplement current assets to: 11 – Reduce the cost of service to ratepayers – Create multi-level return opportunities Value through synergies between existing assets and new projects November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors Declining Regional Load Factor Southeast Pipeline Capacity Utilization 25,000 74% Load Factor 65% Load Factor 20,000 15,000 Capacity (MMcfd) 10,000 Average Throughput (MMcfd) 5,000 1990 12 2000 November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors Declining Load Factor in Georgia AGLC Load Factor 16.8% 16.6% 16.4% 16.6% 16.2% 16.3% 16.0% 15.9% 15.8% 15.6% 15.6% 15.4% 15.3% 15.2% 15.0% 14.8% 14.6% 2000 13 2001 2002 2003 2004 November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors Regional Opportunities JOINT USE PIPELINE OPPORTUNITY VIRGINIA HUB APPALACHIAN PRODUCTION EAST TENNESSEE INTERCONNECT VNG PROPANE PEAKING DIRECT TO ATLANTA PIPELINE ATLANTA HUB MACON LNG SALT DOME STORAGE 14 ELBA ISLAND LNG IMPORT TERMINAL November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors Near-Term Development Plans 15 Macon Peaking Pipeline – Peaking needs continue to grow in Atlanta despite declining load factor – Currently LNG facility is limited to 50% capability by constrained take-away capacity VNG Propane-Air Facility Expansion – Additional peaking capacity needed at VNG – Modest propane injection has been used to manage peak needs – Improves duration and reliability of propane injection peaking November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities Everett Cove Point 4 2 1 3 Elba Island Lake Charles AGL Resources LNG Facilities 1 2 3 4 Location Riverdale Cherokee Macon* Chattanooga Propane Air-VNG (North) Propane Air – VNG (South) Propane Air – Valdosta Storage (bcf) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.07 Capacity Liquefaction (Mcfd) 10,000 10,000 10,000 8,000 Storage with liquefaction (57) Storage without liquefaction (39) Vaporization (Mcfd) 400,000 400,000 150,000 90,000 14,400 28,800 3,600 *Pipeline system currently can only accommodate a delivery of 70,000 Mcf/day. 16 Source: EIA, Office of Oil and Gas, September 2002 November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors What Makes ATG Different? 17 Location … Location … Location Management is all over the details Always searching for opportunities to create value No surprises Only promise what we know we can deliver November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors We Keep Our Promises $1.91$1.94 $1.96 CY EPS $2.00 2000 – 2002 CAGR = 16% $1.84 $1.75 $1.80 $1.51 $1.54 $1.60 $1.40 $1.20 $1.33 $1.36 2000 2001 2002 Consensus Estimate 18 2003E Actual Revised guidance upward following 3Q earnings November 2003 InvestorConference Meetings Investors Upcoming Events ATG Analyst/Investor Conference – November 17-19 in Savannah, Georgia 4th Quarter/Year-End 2003 Earnings Released – January 29, 2004 Contact: Steve Cave Director, Investor Relations (404) 584-3801 E-mail: [email protected] 19