Transcript Slide 1

IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
Acute Food Insecurity Analysis
IPC
Current situation April 2012
Projection April to July 2012
Presented to Livelihoods Cluster Meeting
26 April 2012
Regency Hotel, Juba
IPC Global Partners
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
Methods and Key issues
-The unit of analysis is the livelihoods zones and five persons per group
from the very livelihood zone are involved in the analysis.
-The group consensus is reached through convergence of evidence,the
data used in the analysis is from Central and State Governments, WFP,
FEWSNET, FAO and NGOs located in the livelihood zone.
-The IPC analytical framework and acute food insecurity reference tables
are used; this provides reference outcomes and general response
objectives for five phases of acute food insecurity.
-The challenge is the availability of data especially the pre harvest and
post harvest nutrition data
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
Past IPC analysis
December 2011
17 Dec. 2010
Projection Jan – March 2012
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
Seasonal Calendar
Mar
Unimodal
rainfall
zone
Rainfall
Apr
May
Dry season
Main crop
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Wet season
Dry
season
First crop
Land preparation Growing season
and planting
Dec
Jan
Dry season
Harvest
Growing season
Rainfall
Second
crop
July
Land preparation Growing season
and planting
Long-cycle
cops
Bimodal
rainfall
zone
June
Harvest
Wet season
Dry season
Harvest
Land preparation Growing season
and planting
Harvest
Feb
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
Key points
Food security conditions are slightly lower than normal for this time of the
year with pockets that are worst than others with overall situation
comparable with 2009
- Low crop production
- High market food prices
- Other seasonal factors
2012 additional high concern:
Civil security - conflict escalation at border
Inflation (market food prices)
Projection based on most likely scenario – situation highly volatile and
difficult to predict evolution of RSS-N Sudan (conflict? Scale?) and
related impact on food security for population (especially at border).
Worst case scenario (conflicts escalation): fs situation deteriorate
dramatically
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
Projection April-July 2012
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
1. Green Belt LZ
Current situation April 2012
Overall phase 2 (low levels of food insecurity) Stressed)
Food availability (Fair harvest 2011 – some stocks)
- No LRA activity in 2012
- Inflation of the SS Pound  food prices raising
- Still IDPs / refugees (2011 LRA activities)
- Poor access to safe water affecting food utilization and
hygiene practices
- High HIV-AIDS prevalence
- Significant post-harvest losses
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
1. Green Belt LZ
Projection April to July 2012
Overall Phase 2
- Good rain forecasted – land preparation/planting ongoing
as usual
- Food stocks expected to last up to June (lean season as
usual but root crops will be available)
- LRA is currently not a problem but situation to be monitored
across the border (active in 2012 DRC and CAR)
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
2. Iron Stone Plateau
Current situation April 2012
Overall Phase 3
- Food Access: prices on the market increased significantly
(devaluation of SSP and cost of fuel increasing)
- Raga county areas bordering Sudan – security situation
volatile
- Poor access to safe water sources in several areas
- Overall favorable food availability especially productive
area of Raja but less favorable in Wau (2011 production and
current stocks)
- Pressure on Wau urban settings due to returnees
concentration
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
2. Iron Stone Plateau
Projection April – July 2012
Overall Phase 3
Lean season will last up to next harvest (August) – more
people foreseen to experience food insecurity
- Food Access: prices on the market report to increase
significantly (devaluation SSP and cost fuel increasing)
- Pressure on Wau urban settings due to returnees
concentration will continue and might increase for new
arrival
- To monitor closely security situation at the border (possible
displacement- disruption of agricultural season- no access to
markets etc.) Additional pressure to Wau urban settings
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
3. Hills and Mountain
Current April 2012
Overall Phase 2
- Food Access: prices on the market report to increase
significantly (devaluation SSP and cost fuel increasing)
- Good harvest 2011 (good stock levels at HH and market) –
supplied by Uganda
- Zone with the lowest % of HH with poor food consumption
- Land preparation/planting period ongoing as usual
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
3. Hills and Mountains
Projected April – July 2012
Overall Phase 2
- Good rains forecasted
- Normal seasonal pattern with hunger period in
June
- Monitor closely prices on the market (inflation due
to devaluation SSP and cost of fuel increasing)
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
4. Pastoral Zone
Current April 2012
Overall Phase 3
Food utilization limiting factor to food security (very poor handling and
food storage practices)
- Food availability: stocks are running low as we enter the seasonal
hunger gap.
- ToT unfavorable for livestock owners (cereal prices increased)
- With hunger season population relying more on markets for food
(prices are high and increasing due to SPP devaluation)
- Rains started and vegetation improving (pastures for animals available)
- Insecurity especially in Pibor area due to cattle rustling practices
(displaced population) -
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
4. Pastoral Zone
Projection April – July 2012
Overall Phase 3
- Overall favorable rains forecasted for the season anticipating normal
pastures conditions and water sources available.
- Food prices increase might lead to further deterioration of ToT limiting
access to cereal for pastoralists
- Hunger season ongoing with seasonal food insecurity related pattern
(increase number of food insecure population)
- Government actions to limit insecurity due to cattle rustling on –going
(situation expected to improve)
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
5. Eastern Flood Plains
Current April 2012
Overall Phase 3 (! Situation could be worse without
humanitarian interventions )
- Conflict on-going at the border with Sudan (both Unity and Upper Nile)
– security contingency mode in place
- Bombardment are causing internal displacements
- Insecurity Jonglei (cattle rustling) is also causing displacements
- Food harvest 2011 in deficit
-Population dependent on markets (prices high and increasing –
devaluation SSP)
- Chronically high level of poor food consumption at HH level
- Acute nutrition indicators “chronically high”
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
5. Eastern Flood Plains
Projection April to July 2012
Overall Phase 3
- Conflicts at the border with Sudan are likely to intensify, expected high
displacements, disruption of agricultural activities, disruption of trade and
higher food prices in the market(both Unity and Upper Nile) –
- Aggregation of displaced people over a short period is likely to trigger
disease outbreak and poor food utilization
- Inflation and increasing fuel prices expect to negatively impact on food
prices in the market
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
6. Nile Sobat corridor
Current April 2012
Overall Phase 3 (border area 4)
- Unimodal agricultural area with fishing all over the year.
- Big deficit in 2011 crop production (stocks at low levels)
- Food availability is a limiting factor to food security at this moment
- Food supply from North blocked (important source) since last year
- Prices high and increasing due to devaluation of SSP, low food
availability
- Area bordering Sudan is highly volatile with high risk of deterioration
and intensification of conflicts.
-During last two weeks incidents have been reported (with causalities
and displacement)
-
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
6. Nile Sobat corridor
Projection April – July 2012
Overall Phase 3 (border area in 4 expanding)
- Due to conflicts high probability of disruption of agricultural season
(areas near the border)
- Population displaced might increase (pressure on food security of incountry urban settings)
- June is the pick of the lean season and with food stocks already low it
might be early
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
7. Western flood plains
Current April - June
Overall Phase 3 (! Situation could be worst without humanitarian
interventions – in particular Twic and Aweil Centre and West) and
bordering area already in 4
- Unimodal agricultural area (land preparation period) .
- Big deficit in 2011 crop production (stocks low levels) - Food
availability is a limiting factor to food security in this moment
- Food supply from North blocked (important source) since last year
- Prices high and increasing due to devaluation of SSP, low food
availability and blockage of border
- Area bordering Sudan is highly volatile with high risk of deterioration
and intensification of conflicts.
- High presence of displaced from Abyie (mostly concentrated Twic)
- Concentration of returnees not settled yet (especially in Aweil)
IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
7. Western Flood Plains
Projection April – July 2012
Overall Phase 3 (! Areas) and bordering Sudan already in
4 will expand
- Situation might deteriorate at border causing disruption of agricultural
production – displacement – limited access to markets
- June is the pick of the lean season and with food stocks already low it
might come even earlier
- Prices will continue to increase due to devaluation of SSP, low food
availability and blockage of border
- More people are expected to face food insecurity