Transcript Water as a Source of Cooperation: Southern Africa Tufts

Water as a Source of Conflict &
Cooperation: Southern Africa
Tufts Water Systems, Science & Society
Interdisciplinary Research & Graduate Program
24-28 February 2005
Medford, MA
Dr. Anthony Turton
Gibb-SERA Chair in Integrated Water Resource Management
[email protected]
President: Universities Partnership for Transboundary Rivers
www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu
Shared
River
Basins
Africa’s shared river
basins contain:
•
•
•
61 % of the area
77 % of the people
93 % of the water
© Pete Ashton
N
0
500
Kilometre
s
1000
Shared
Aquifer
Systems
Errachedia
Basin
Source: UNESCO (2004)
Tindouf
Aquifer
Northern
Sahara
Basin
Nubian
Sandstone
Basin
Mourzouk
Djado
Basin
C
Taoudéni
Basin
B
A
Irhazer
Iullemeden
Basin
AwashDjibouti
Basin
Chad
Basin
Upper
Nile
Basin
Ogaden - Juba
Aquifer
D
SenegaloMauritanian Cote d’Ivoire- Benin-TogoNigeria
Basin
Ghana Coastal
Coastal
Aquifer
Aquifer
E
Merti
Basin
F
G
© Pete Ashton
A
Liptako-Gourma Aquifer
B
L’Air Crystalline Aquifer
C
Tin-Séririne Aquifer
D
Rift Valley Secondary Aquifers
E
Mount Elgon Aquifer
F
Kagera Aquifer
G
Kilimanjaro Aquifer
H
Upper Rovuma Aquifer
I
Shire Valley Alluvial Aquifer
J
Nata-Gwaai Aquifer
K
Tuli-Shashe Aquifer
L
Pafuri Alluvial Aquifer
M
Ramotswa Dolomite Aquifer
N
Karoo Sedimentary Aquifer
Congo
Intra-Cratonic
Basin
Congo
Coastal
Aquifer
KenyaTanzania
Coastal
Aquifer
Cunene
Coastal
Aquifer
I
Okavango
Aquifer
J
K
Gariep
Coastal
Aquifer
Rovuma
Coastal
Aquifer
H
Kalahari
Aquifer
M
L
Incomati
Coastal
Aquifer
N
N
0
500
Kilometres
1000
PERENNIAL RIVERS AND
LAKES: SITES OF DISPUTES
Perennial
rivers
© Pete Ashton
Disputes
usually occur
in zones
where water
availability is
uncertain
MEAN
ANNUAL
RAINFALL
D. R. C.
ANGOLA
TANZANIA
ZAMBIA
MOZABIQUE
MALAWI
Mean Annual
Rainfall (mm)
ZIMBABWE
= 860 mm isohyet
NAMIBIA
BOTSWANA
= World average rainfall
SADC Average Annual
Rainfall = 948 mm
SOUTH
AFRICA
© Pete Ashton
0
250
500 km
SWAZILAND
LESOTHO
2500
2000
1500
1250
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
How Water Scarce is Southern Africa?
© O’Keeffe et al
Lake Chad
Dams and
hydraulic
inf’structure
in Southern
Africa
Nile
Congo
(DRC)
Congo
Tanzania
Angola
Rovuma
Mozambique
Zambia
Kunene
Zambezi
Zimbabwe
Cuvelai
Malawi
Pungué
Buzi
Save-Runde
Okavango/
Makgadikgadi
South Africa and Zimbabwe
are listed amongst the top
twenty countries in the
world in terms of the
numbers of dams built
(WCD 2000)
Namibi
a
Botswana
Limpopo
Incomati
Umbeluzi
Maputo
Orange
Swaziland
South
Africa
© P Ashton
N
Lesotho
0
25
0
Kilometres
50
0
Lake Chad
WATER
TRANSFERS
IN
SOUTHERN
AFRICA
Nile
Congo
(DRC)
Congo
Tanzania
Angola
Rovuma
Mozambique
Zambia
Kunene
Zambezi
Zimbabwe
Cuvelai
Malawi
Pungué
Existing water
transfer scheme
Proposed new
water transfer
scheme
© Pete Ashton
Buzi
Save-Runde
Okavango/
Makgadikgadi
Namibi
a
Botswana
Limpopo
Incomati
Umbeluzi
Maputo
Orange
Swaziland
South
Africa
N
Lesotho
0
25
0
Kilometres
50
0
WATER AVAILABLE PER
PERSON IN 2002 AND 2025
2002
2025
Water security
Adequate water
Water stress
Chronic scarcity
© Pete Ashton
Absolute scarcity
HADCM3 Climate Model Projections using IPCC SRES
A2 Scenario showing Precipitation for 2050
Source: Scholes & Biggs (2004:4)
Hydro-Political Complex
International River Basins
Pivotal States
Save-Runde
PS
PS
-
-
PS
PS
-
-
-
-
PS
PS
PS
-
-
-
IS
IS
-
-
-
IS
Mozambique
-
IS
IS
IS
IS
IS
IS
Swaziland
-
IS
IS
Lesotho
IS
Botswana
SC
PS
South Africa
PS
PS
Zimbabwe
-
Angola
-
Maputo
-
Zambia
Malawi
Tanzania
Zambezi
-
PS
Pungué
Cunene
PS
Namibia
Incomati
PS
Limpopo
PS
Orange
PS
Riparian
States
Impacted States
Impacted
Okavango
Pivotal
Legend:
PS = Pivotal State
IS = Impacted State
SC = Special case
IS
IS
© A R Turton 2004
IS
Heavily
Utilized Water
Resources in
Southern
Africa
Lake Chad
Nile
Congo
(DRC)
Congo
Tanzania
Angola
Rovuma
Water resources
approaching “closure” –
very little left to allocate
for off-channel uses
Water resources under
increased pressure –
need to ensure closer
co-operation with
neighbouring states
© Pete Ashton
Mozambique
Zambia
Cunene
Zambezi
Zimbabwe
Cuvelai
Malawi
Pungué
Buzi
Save-Runde
Okavango/
Makgadikgadi
Namibi
a
Botswana
Limpopo
Incomati
Umbeluzi
Maputo
Orange
Swaziland
South
Africa
N
Lesotho
0
25
0
Kilometres
50
0
Dependence
on
Neighbouring
States for
River Inflows
/ Water
Transfers
Degree of Dependence on
Neighbouring States
0%
0 - 10 %
11 - 24 %
25 - 49 %
© Pete Ashton
> 50 %
N
0
500
Kilometre
s
1000
Southern Africa was place where the
Cold War got hot.
This was in keeping with Kissinger’s
doctrine of limited war…
© A R Turton 1982
Strategic infrastructure was regularly
targeted for tactical reasons
© A R Turton 1982
© A R Turton 1982
© A R Turton 1982
WhileHeavy
watermetal
infrastructure
seepagebecame
from a
target of war
at dumps
different scales it
mine
was never a cause of war
© A R Turton 1982
The water transfer pipeline from
Calueque Dam in Angola to Namibia
was in the middle of a theatre of the
Cold War
© A R Turton 1982
The pipeline was attacked on occasion
for tactical reasons
Yet despite being a combat zone high
levels of cooperation in the field of
water resource management continued
throughout the war
© A R Turton 1982
© A R Turton 1982
This pump scheme is a strategic target but it
was never attacked during the war although
the delivery pipeline did become a tactical
target on occasion
At the analytical level it is important to
distinguish between the strategic and the
tactical scale
In hydropolitics scale matters….
© A R Turton 1982
Combat patrol along water and
electricity infrastructure
© A R Turton 1982
Now the Cold War guns stand silent as
Southern Africa engages in reconstruction
centered on the management of
transboundary water resources
The first regional protocol signed when
South Africa joined SADC was the protocol
on shared watercourse systems
© A R Turton 1999
© A R Turton 2004
Enabling former enemies to unite in
their desire for post-conflict
reconstruction through water resource
management
While the journey has been rough it has
always been in one direction –
ultimately towards peace and regional
integration
The mighty Zambezi is not easy to
tame
But it is an important regional resource
that is shared….
© A R Turton 1995
Water and Cooperation
• South Africa is a signatory to more than 70 treaties
relating to water (research ongoing).
• Three of the four international river basins in SA have
a comprehensive basin-wide agreement and
accompanying River Basin Commission.
• The fourth is currently under negotiation (Limpopo).
• During the Cold War these cooperative agreements
floated like islands of peace on a sea of violence and
mistrust.
• This is the foundation for regional integration and postconflict reconstruction in SADC.
The Importance of Scale
High
Many
Severe
Potential
for
dispute
to occur
Alternative
Potential
options
consequences
available
of
dispute
for adispute
resolution
Few
Mild
Low
Local
National
Geographical scale
Regional
Africa is always full of surprises
Thank You