The Wrinkling of Rural

Part 5

The Wrinkling of Rural

DO NOT GO GENTLY INTO THAT GOOD NIGHT.

OLD AGE SHOULD BURN AND RAVE AT THE CLOSE OF DAY; RAGE, RAGE AGAINST THE DYING OF THE LIGHT

DYLAN THOMAS

Critical Demographics Segment from 2015 to 2030

• • • • From 2015 to 2030 we will increase our total population of children by ( Estimated ) 7,352,000 [ Children are aged 14 and younger ] If the current scenario holds true, 80 percent of these children will attend school in 144 metropolitan counties and 181 amenity “hot growth” counties in rural areas.

During the same period the population of persons aged 65+ will increase 26,200,000 persons You do the math

USA TODAY 4/21/05

Rapidly Aging/Fast Growing

5 3 2 6 1 5 4 2 1 4 3 Rapidly Aging Fastest Growing

The Old In Modern Human History

Until the turn of the 19

age segments

th into the 20 th

Century, the world population maintained a constant relationship between Most ecologist and demographers agree that the most significant change to the planet in the 20 th Century is the aging of the human species.

From the beginning of the modern era until 1900 the total proportion of those over 65 to those under that age remained a constant 5% percent. During the 21 st Century – we are headed for the 35% level.

Percent of the Total Population Aged 65 and Over - 2003

And 50 Years in the Future

Proportion of Total Population Aged 65 years & older Less developed nations More developed nations United Nations Population Bulletin, 2003

Take Home Points

• • • • In 1960 there were 16 workers for every person on social security in the U.S.

By 2045 there will be 3 workers for every person on social security ( under contemporary scenario ) By 2050 the world should hit the 34 percent mark for persons 65 and over By 2999 we should reach a stable point at 38 percent of the world

Incomes Age Structure Birth Rates

KEY ISSUES

Health Care – Elderly - Incomes Decline Entitlement Retirement Pensions

An Aging World

About 795,000 persons in the world cross the line from middle age to elderly each month .

The number of elderly in the U.S. increased 12 fold from 1900 – 2000 or 3 million to 42 million. By 2030 about 70 million of our population will be old

Quick Facts

• • • Over the next 70 years the world will undergo the greatest demographic change in all its history In 2050 in the U.S. there will be 27.1 million children age 5 and under & 78.8 million aged 65 and over By 2070 there will be 106 million elderly persons in the United States out of our projected 490 million persons

Even Quicker Facts

• • • In 2030 seniors will out number school aged children in 10 states – currently no state has more seniors than children By 2030 approx. 26 states will double their population of elderly Thirty two percent of the residents in 6 states will be elderly – we want service, not no stinking schools – and we vote early and often

The Real Story

The real story of rural areas is the elderly. In U.S. deep rural communities under 5,000 – one in three persons will be aged 65+ by 2030.

Local Impact

By 2030 the elderly share of the population will rise to 32 percent of the population of U.S.’ Deep Rural areas.

In terms of the total package, we calculate that 40 percent of all public expenditures on the local level will be directed towards elderly support, medical services, and transfer payments. Currently it is 22 percent

• •

Presentation Of The Check For The Public Share For Elderly Health Care

Assisted Care Costs • 1987 - 11 billion • 1996 – 70 billion • 2002 – 400 billion • 2015 – 1.2 trillion All Health Care • 2003 – 1.67 trillion • 2015 – 2.1 trillion 2005 Health Cost – 17.1 % GNP

Why The Great Increase in Health Care Costs?

• • • The last two years of life are the most medically intense for the average American The last two years of treatment are not for life extension, but for quality of life & maintenance This type of treatment tends to be the most expensive

The Victims

• Elderly support – if it continues at the same level it will devastate the following budgets: • Education and education infrastructure • Local infrastructure • Local and some state based transfer payments for retirement • Local arts, parks, recreation and workforce development • Medicare, Social Security & Trust Fund

Most Vulnerable of the Victims

U.S. Counties that could have 30% of their population elderly

Menu of Pain

• The current deferred generational red ink equals $4.5 trillion – pick an option • Increase federal income taxes (69% change) • Increase payroll taxes (95% change) • Decrease discretional federal spending (96%) • Decrease Social Security and Medicare Benefits • Let the SS fund deplete in 2032 and pay-as you-go • Cut education spending Gokhale & Smetters, 2003

Opportunities?

In 2030 about 33 percent of all persons aged 70 and over require some form of skilled or assistant term care About 4.3 million units of new long term care housing must be supplied at an average cost of $7,570 per month (2015 dollars) for assisted care. Even more important, we must recruit 740,000 assisted care and health workers to support this elderly population

Enter the Baby Boomers

If You Don’t Recognize One of These Pictures – You Are Not Baby Boomer

Baby Boomers Were Born Between 1946 & 1964 In the U.S. Today, Someone Hits Age 50 Every 7 Seconds

1960

The Age Bulge from 1960 to 2020

2000

U.S. Census Bureau

Segments Of the Baby Boomers

Independent, will work part time until they die 25% 9% Do not plan to work at all after retirement 13% 30% 23% Totally Dependent on Soc. Sec. and Medicare Will get by no matter what. Will work part time if need.

Strugglers Enthusiasts Anxious Traditionalist Self Reliants

During the Baby Boom Cycle – 30 million people will be totally dependent on Transfer payments – Think in terms of 2.4 trillion dollars

Our Oldest Old – Percent of Population Aged 75+

United Nations 2000 - 2001

Will It Continue?

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Expected life term survival rates from 1970 - 2030

Yes, Survival Rates Will Continue to Increase at a Slow Rate

United Nations 2000 - 2001

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-09 0-04

16

Projected Population Structure For the U.S. 2050

Male Female 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

And, Poor Canada

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-09 0-04

1.6

1.4

1.2

Male Female 1 0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

1 1.2 1.4 1.6

Quick Facts

• In 2025 Europe there will be 2.8 elderly persons per child • Europe as a whole will shrink by 142 million persons (pop. of France & Italy) • Japan and New Zealand will be the oldest countries in the world – 15 percent will be over 80

The Overall Impact

•

The long gray wave of Baby Boomers retiring could lead to an all-engulfing economic crisis -- unless we balance the budget, rein in senior entitlements, raise retirement ages, and boost individual and pension savings. Yet politicians of both parties say that most of the urgently necessary reforms are "off the table."

Richard Lewis

Mobility Issues – Results of Cross National Studies

• One of the few cross-national studies of elderly migration (Rogers, 1998) identified two basic patterns.

• One is characterized by amenity or health motivated, long-distance relocation • The other by intra-community, assistance-motivated short-distance moves.

• This is important because --- next slide

Elderly & Retirement Issues

• Elderly services and retooling infrastructure will be a premier opportunity for rural areas • • Requires a complete re-thinking of local development policies Perhaps as many as 20 percent of small towns could qualify as retirement destinations

Births & Marriage

Birth Rates

• Data for 2001 birth rates are the lowest ever recorded since records began – total of 4,019,480 • One-third of all live births are to unmarried women, but teen pregnancies are finally declining • The big decline in births began in 1991

• • • •

The Fertility Rate – Number of Live Births Per 1,000 Women

We peaked in 1957 when the US produced a baby every 7 seconds – a rate of 3.68 per 1000. We freaked about rampant growth In 1970 it was 2.48 births per 1,000 and bottomed at 1.74 in 1976 The baby bust of the 70s was followed by the birth dearth of the 80s In 2004 we returned to 2.2 – this is sustainable

20

th

Century Birth Rates

1910 2000

But, Survival Rates

The Number of Infant Deaths Between 0 – 5 years of age per one thousand births

Median Age of U.S. Non Immigrants at First Marriage

Waiting for Mr. Perfect

Some Other Factors

• • • • • We consistently win the divorce Tour de France each year The best fertility years for males are age 20 – 24; the median age at first marriage for males in 26.8

Purposely childless couples have tripled in the last 20 years Women in the work place Globalized attitudes towards wealth and consumption – no fun with excess children

Good Advice

“ALWAYS BE NICE TO YOUR CHILDREN BECAUSE THEY ARE THE ONES THAT WILL CHOOSE YOUR REST HOME” Phyllis Diller

The Future For Our Children

• Big, Blue and Wrinkled All Over • How Old? How Wrinkled? – VERY • • • The world tipping point between elderly 65+ and children 0 – 18 will be reached in 2035-2045 This will is not a a simple trend – it will be forever under the current scenario with a rising life expectancy and low birth rates China will go to into decline within 45 years and be profoundly unbalanced towards males

The Opportunities of Growing Older

"Global demographic change is occurring at a rate never seen before and we will need to pay close attention to how our towns respond to the challenges and opportunities of growing older.”

Dark days are upon me, my husband is dead, I look at the future, I shudder with dread, For my young are all rearing young of their own, And I think of the years and the love that I've known; I'm an old woman now and nature is cruel - 'Tis her jest to make old age look like a fool.