Transcript Dia 1

Step By Step
Final Conference Stepping
Stones
Cracow,
ERA-NET Transport III
Stepping Stones Program
Wim Korver
18 July 2015
IBDiM: Road and
Bridge Research
Institute (Poland)
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Content
• Background
• Research questions
• Can cities be grouped based on their transport
characteristics?
• Our cases: an overview
• Our approach to “measure” success
• Analysis based on success ratings
• Policy Recommendations based on case analysis
• Conclusions
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Background
• Transport will become in
Europe the major producer of CO2 emissions
• Technology will help, but on a local/regional scale more
is needed: behavioural changes are needed to reach
objectives (a sustainable mobility system)
• A lot of national initiatives: e.g. CIVITAS, Better
Benutten (NL) and Forschungsprogramm Stadtverkehr
(GE)
• What can we learn from existing behavioural
interventions (case analysis)
Research Questions
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Main Objective
• Stepping Stones:
1.To understand the successful (policy) measures aimed at
making mobility patterns more sustainable and the underlying
mechanisms (the how) including social & psychological
factors.
2.The research results should be of common interest across
Europe or in several regions.
• Step By Step:
•
Identifying potential successful policy measures for changing
the transport behaviour of people based on structural
differences between cities and cultures
What we know
after the project is
completed
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CASES & CITIES
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Base Research Approach
A. Empirical based: the use of (urban) cases
B. Structural versus behavioural factors
City Type
Type of measure
Theory of Cialdini
Persuasion strategies
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Can European cities be clustered into homogeneous
groups?
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Approach: two datasets
• Urban Audit (Eurostat):
•
•
•
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785 cities
Mainly demographical, geographical and economical data
Base year 2009
Limited information on transport use
• TEMS-EPOMM dataset:
•
•
•
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165 cities
Different base years
Shares of different transport modes (modal split)
No information on total transport volumes
• New dataset is created and will be available for others
(via ERA-NET Transport website)
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Analysis: combining all kind of variables
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Analysis: 6 major explanatory factors for mobility
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Total population of a city
Average household income (not a person!)
Surface: total area of the city
Population density
Total number of private cars registered
Cars per inhabitant of that city
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European cities can be clustered into three major
groups. But some overlaps occur, European cities are
not that easy to cluster
Cat. 4
Cat. 1
Car
Cat. 3
Multimodal
Cat. 7
Cat. 6
Cat. 5
Cat. 8
Cat. 2
Public transport
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31 CASES
15 CITIES
O1 O2
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Structural Factors: Typology of cities
Type
N
Within Step By Step
Car Oriented
4
Rotterdam, Tubingen, Gothenburg,
Manchester
Public Transport
Oriented
6
Dresden, Berlin, Warsaw, Cracow,
Wroclaw, Stockholm
Multimodal oriented 5
Amsterdam, Breda, Munich,
Freiburg, Malmo/Lund
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Empirical work based on 31 cases
Distribution among countries
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10
8
6
4
2
0
NL
GE
SW
PL
UK
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Empirical work based on 31 cases
Case Characteristics
Transport concept
Demand
Attitude
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
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Within report one page
descriptions with:
• description of the
project
• project objective(s)
• results and
• lessons learned
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Step By Step Approach
Measures
taken in
our cases
Structural
factors
Cities/
Regions
Typology
of cities
based on
”structural”
factors
A
Assess
successfulness C
Classification
of type of
”behavioural”
influence in
the cases
B
(indications of)
Success as a
function of
C=f(A & B)
Other
factors not
measured
Other measures
taken in the city at
the same time or
before
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What is success?
• Depends on whom you ask
•
Project leader, politician, interest groups, user, all will have
different views
• Success on what? Success can be divided in several
aspects
•
Less car use, different opinions, budget spent, etc.
• There are grades of success
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Rating every case based on Five Steps Approach
1.
Was the process well performed?
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2.
Barriers for implementation and how they were handled
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3.
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All effects were evaluated according to initial formulation of targets and/or goals
Some effects were evaluated
No evaluation was made
Were the goals reached? Or (if no targets) were the effects "large"?
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5.
There were barriers for implementation but they were overcome and the implementation was fully performed
There were barriers for implementation which were only partly overcome and the implementation process had to be
adjusted.
There were non, or only small, barriers and the implementation could be performed according to plan
Were the effects evaluated?
•
4.
identification of problem/problems to be solved/reduced?
choice of measure that were "appropriate" to solve the problem/problems?
formulation of targets or goals?
"enough" communication and dialogue with stakeholders and/or the public?
Yes/ partly/ no
Is the work being continued to maintain or increase effects?
•
yes to large extent/ partly / no
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Success rate between 3 and 9
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Mix of successfull & unsuccessfull cases. Rating
per type of measure is more or less the same
Attitude
Demand
Transport
concept
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Rating
per city
type is
more or
less the
same,
however
car
oriented
cities
rate
lowest
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Lower success rates as a result of less
evaluation and lower goal fulfillment
N=31
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Behavioral aspects “The power of persuasion”
CIALDINI:
• Social Proof - People do things they see other people doing
• Authority - People will obey authority figures
• Liking - People are persuaded by others they like (“Facebook”)
• Scarcity - Perceived scarcity will generate demand
• Reciprocity – Tit for tat. Fairness
• Commitment and Consistency - If committed, continue
Use of Cialidini persuasion principles
Not used
N=31
Scaricity
Authority
Reciprocity
Liking
Commitment & consistency
Social proof
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
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Behavioural Aspects
• No relation between kind of persuasion strategy and
success
• If no persuasion strategy could be found (29%), success
rates are lower. Think at before hand about the kind of
persuasive strategies
•
Do not communicate in terms like objective elements like the
bus/bicycle is quicker, cheaper or things like that, but try to relate
to the actual behavioural motives
• Adaptive approach: Successful cases show different kind
of persuasion strategies
• In most cases behavioural persuasion strategies are
implicitly included, not explicitly
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General policy recommendations
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Process
Implementation
Evaluation
Goal Fulfilment
Continuation
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1. Process oriented
• In order to influence travel behavior, there needs to
be a person who is responsible. Meaning:
•
This person (or group of persons) plays the role of a
spider in the network function and preferably this person
can be found within city administration, sometimes
outside city administration
• In most successful cases, the person/group was
able to create a special local network of key
institutions and players supporting the strategy
• Focus on positive aspects (benefits, such as
health or better accessibility) and not negative
aspects (higher costs)
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2. Implementation
• A sound problem analysis is needed
•
What is the problem/challenge & what are the options
• “Window of opportunity” needs to be identified
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Coming from a specific national or European funding scheme, special event (National
Road Construction Plan, Dresden flood 2002, Extra funding from car parking fees in
Amsterdam, etc.)
If there is no obvious window, use an experiment project or a temporary project first
As each city with its players, its culture, its level of discussion etc. at one time is
different from another city with other specific conditions, all windows of opportunity are
somehow different from each other (e.g. German reunification)
Use experimental opportunities like European week of mobility/car free Sunday for the
first steps
• City administration always is a central player and
needs to act:
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In most all cases, support by a highly visible mayor/politician is essential
City administrations needs both the will and the resources to do something
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3. Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E): After
implementing, M&E are absolutely essential for
identification of positive/negative effects
a. M&E for identifying the positive and expected effects, which is needed to promote the
result that the measure was successful
b. M&E are essential to identify any negative effects so that these could be corrected in
the next round
c. M&E is essential to be able to identify changed conditions which require changed
objectives for the next round
d. M&E is essential to maintain the process, to keep the momentum and to establish a
SUMP – tradition in the city
e. M&E should be constructed in such a way that not only regular aspects like accessibility
and environmental effects are measured, but more soft impacts like “Quality of Life”
f. Measure that influence land use patterns are most important in the long run, they should
be included in all long term strategies. However, from an M&E viewpoint, they are
difficult to monitor. If possible include them.
g. M&E is only possible if the target groups are defined properly even in the early stages
of the process
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4. Goal Fulfilment
• Set realistic goals
•
Behavioural changes take time
• Push & pull packages are more efficient and
superior to other packages of measures
• Every type of measure can be successful or
unsuccessful
• Economic incentives seem to be slightly more
effective than other measures
• Size doesn’t matter: small projects can be
effective and large ineffective and visa versa
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5. Continuation
• There is a life after the project
• Maintain, improve and develop
• Ideally, aspects of continuation are
already included by setting up the project
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Conclusions
•
All policy measures can be successful (or unsuccessful), though:
• Economic incentives measures seem to be more successful
•
Cities do differ (structural factors) but this has a small impact on
successfulness of policy measures
• Measures in car oriented cities are slightly less successful (more
resistance?)
•
How measures are implemented and defined has a major impact on
successfulness. Successful measures have a sound problem
definition, realistic targets, use a specific window of opportunity,
have an elaborate M&E program and have thought at before hand
on the life after the project
•
Behavioural methodologies/strategies are mostly used implicitly