Transcript Why Foresight? - Ontario Chapter

Phyllis Speser
Foresight Science & Technology
www.foresightst.com
401.273.4844, ext. 35
[email protected]
A Proud Tradition
of Intellectual
Leadership
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Technology
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The Key
Product Advantage
Market Orientation
Launch Tactics
New Product Performance
Organizational Performance
Source: F. Lanerak, E. Hultink, H. Robben, “ The Impact of Market Orientation, Product Advantage, and Launch Proficiency on New Product
performance and Organizational Performance,” Journal of the Product Development Management Association, V. 21, #2, March, 2004,
p.89
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Technology
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QFD House of Quality for Packable Camping Toaster
X
#
Heat s even ly
Per f o r m an ce To ast s b o t h sid es
Reu sab le
Easy t o car r y in p ack
Tu r n s o f f au t o m at ically
Usab ilit y
Co n t r o llab le set t in g s
Saf e
Pr ice
Un d er $40
Absolute Importance
Yo u r Nam e
Co m p et it o r 1
Technical
Co m p et it o r 2
Evaluation
Co m p et it o r 3
Targets
ForesightScience &
Technology
DSP In st r u ct io n s
Tim e t o r ech ar g e
Po w er
Avg . t em p er at u r e
Customer
Requirements
Weig h t
Customer Rating
Importance (1-5)
Direction of Improvement
Design Requirements
1
2
3
4
5
3
1
4
5
3
4
5
5
45
59
54
10
24
5 1 = low, 5 = high
4
3
2
1
1 lb
155 C 500 W10 m in 200 MIPS
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Technology
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Sell Customers Not Technology
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Technology
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Product Advantage Changes over Time
Desk Top
Replacement
Road Warrior
Notebook
Weight
PDA
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Technology
Trajectory of
End User Weight
Requirement
Time
8
Technology has to Change Too
Technology is a Tool for Doing Something
5 W’s
Who is doing it?
What is being done?
Where are they doing it
Why is it being done?
When are they doing it?
Sell intellectual assets that can provide
“a proven solution for a repetitive activity.
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Technology
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Market Forces
Distribution without Market Force
Market Force
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Technology
Distribution with
Market Force
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Ini
Pro tial S
duc ale
tO s
ne
s
ale
d S ne
g
nue
nti ct O pin
Co du am
Pro ut Sw
tho
Wi
Revenues
Pr S
od al
uc es
tT
w
o
Competition Cuts Sales
s
ale
dS
nue t O ne ng
nti
Co duc mpi
Pro Swa
th
Wi
Take-Off
And Transition
to Market Growth Phase
For Product One
ForesightScience &
Technology
Originally Anticipated Time
Transition to
Market
Maturity for Product One
Swamping Caused
By Product Two
Introduction Occurs
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Product Advantage over Time
S2b
Yield
Requirement
S1a
S2a
Trajectory
Technology 2
S1b
Time
Yield
S2
Requirement
S1
Trajectory
Technology 1
Trajectory
Technology 2
Cost
Requirementb
Yield
S2c
S
Requirementa S2b 1c
S1b
S1a S
Trajectory
Technology 1
2a
Time
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Technology
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Huh?
Lead all Players
Business
Unit
Strategy
Importance
Be in Top 5% of all Players
Lead all Direct Competitors
Be in Top Half of all Players
Crucial for Future Growth
Crucial for Survival
Capacity
Star Trek Gap Analysis
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Technology
Intellectual
Asset
(R&D)
Intellectual
Property
Technology Space Gap Evaluation
13
Consumer consumption will
ultimately decide success
“Think Supply Chain”
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Technology
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Own the Technology Space
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Technology
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“Product” Advantage
Technological Options
10
Yiel
8
8
7
6
7
6
5
4
6
4
8
7
6
8
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
2
9
8
7
6
8
7
Needs
Tech 1
Tech 2
4
Tech 3
2
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Performance, Ease-of Use, or Price
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Technology
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Intellectual Asset Portfolio
Enabling
Extension
Core
Core
Enabling
Extension
Competing
Extension
Time
Time
Clustering Assets
Bracketing Assets
Strategic
Core
Enabling
Time
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Technology
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Turf
3
Patent
License
Trade
Secret
2
Hits
1
0
Trade Mark
Mask Copyright
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Technology
1 2
3 4 5 6
7 8
0 1
0 0 0 0
0 0
R&D Projects 0 2
3 2 1 0
0 0
Patents
Unprotected
Assets
Occurances by Bohn
Knowledge Level
18
Value Chain Fit
Complete
R&D
Design
Product
Production
Engineer
Produce
10
8
6
4
De v e lo p e r
2
Pa r t n e r
Market
and Sell
0
A p p lie d En g . De v e l. Pr o d u c .
Re s .
M an u fact.
En g .
Sa le s
C u s t.
Distribute
Su p p o r t
Capabilities
• Experience
• Resources
• Skills
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Technology
Support
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Dominant Designs and Market
Orientation
• Product Innovation
Stage
Dominant Design Emerges
– Bundle of
Features
– Standard User
Interface
• Process Innovation
Stage
– Eliminate Steps
– Improve Reliability
– Improve Efficiency
of Resource Use
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Technology
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Targets
End-Users
Source: Jolly, Commercializing Technology
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Technology
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Technology
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Technology
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T im e 1
Ease-of-Use
Skills
T im e 2
Absorptive Capacity
Goals
In
pu
ts
T im e 2
Current
Skills
ty
lls
ra
i
i
s
k
S
De
w
e
ice
t
N
c
of
ra
P
In
i
bil
T im e 1
Current
Capacities
ts
u
p
t
Ou
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Technology
Dominant Design
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Finding Product Advantage: Ease of Use
• Expectations
– Habitual Skills
– Bohn Knowledge
Level (control over
use)
• Know-how
– Learned Skills
– Experience
• Education
ForesightScience &
Technology
“The eye of the master
will do more work than
the hand”
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ForesightScience &
Technology
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Arena: Travel
Practice: Passengering
Ut
il
Utility
ty
Computer
Manufacturing
i li
Ut
it y
Practice:
Lawyering
Practice:
Lawyering
Arena: Law Firm
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Technology
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Finding Product Advantage: Price
• Add-Ons
• Ceiling
– Substitutes
– Hurdle Rates (Average
Marginal Utility of Other
Investments)
– Change-Over Costs
– Avoids Sticker Shock
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Technology
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Decision
Cost
Develop
Acquire
Time
Sample Life-Cycle Cost Curves that Favor a Buy rather than
a Make Decisions
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Technology
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Skeet Shooting the Opportunity
High
Sales
Labor Skill
Low
ForesightScience &
Technology
Introduction
Growth
Maturity
Decline/
Disruption
Pioneering products
High product
innovation
Growing demand
Low volume
Proprietary focus
Many new entrants
Standards wars
Dominant design
More process
innovation
Stabilizing demand
Higher volume
Standards focus
Many failures
Acquisitions
Scale wars
Generic products
High process
innovation
Stable demand
Very high volume
Cost focus
Stable players
Consolidation
and divestitures
Supplier wars
New functionalities
High product
innovation
New demand
Market convergence
New markets
New competition
Barriers to entry drop
New business models
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Market Entry Risk
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Technology
Increm.
Rad/Adapt
Disruptive
existing
modified
Market
new
from Bacon & Bulter, Planned Innovation
Tech
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The Pitch: Ability to Capture Value is Better* with you
* More Likely
More Rapidly
More Profitably
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Technology
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Tactical Importance of Your Technology For Targets
≈ Importance For End-Users
• Offensive
– Pacing
– Emerging
– Spare
• Defensive
– Hedging
– Imitative
– Spare
Lead all Competitors
Be in Top 5% of all Competitors
Impact
from Use of
Technology
Lead all Direct Competitors
Be in Top Half of all Competitors
Crucial for Future Growth
Crucial for Take-off
Offensive
Defensive
Function
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Technology
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Cost leadership
Differentiation
Focus
Appropriate
Structure
Functional
Product-team or
Matrix
Functional
Integrating
Mechanisms
Center on
Manufacturing
Center on R&D
or marketing
Center on
Product or
Customer
Output Control
Great Use
(e.g. Cost
Control)
Some Use (e.g.
quality goals)
Some Use (e.g.
cost and
quality goals)
Bureaucratic
Control
Some Use (e.g.
budgets,
standardization)
Great Use (e.g.
rules, budgets)
Some Use (e.g.
budgets)
Organizational
Control
Little Use
(e.g. quality
control circles
Great Use (e.g.
norms and
values)
Great Use (e.g.
norms and
values)
R&D Focus
Product and
Process
Development
Rather than
Innovation
Which Riskier
(Bottom line
emphasis)
Emphasis on
innovation
and speeding
product
development
and internal
technology
transfer
Customer need
driven
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Your Ability to Address
Market Risk Increases Value
Your Technical Risk
Decreases Value
Source: McGrath & MacMillian, “Assessing Technology Projects Using Real Options Reasoning,
Research Management,July-August, 2000
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Technology
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Opportunity
Competitor
Opportunity
Price
Opportunity
Competitor
Opportunity
Performance
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Technology
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Price
Market
Force
Ea
se
Goals
T im e 2
Skills
T im e 1
Market
Force
A
t
of tra
Te
c
ch tiv
no en
e
lo
gy ss
-o
f- U
se
Capacities
e
nc
a
orm
f
r
Pe
Inputs - Outputs
Market
Force
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Technology
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Technology
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Incremental
Adaptive
Radical
Disruptive
Revenues
Type of
Innovation
Time
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Technology
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ForesightScience &
Technology
Product
Annoucement
Process
Development
Product
Development
Patents
CRADA and
R&D
Alliances
Referred
Papers
Gray
Literature
Series1
Series2
Series3
TIME
40
10
9
8
7
6
Capacity 5
4
University
3
Small Company
2
Large Firm
Contract Manufacturer
1
ForesightScience &
Technology
Sales
Production
Concurrent
Engineering
Development
Applied Research
Basic Research
0
41
Sales, OEM
Application/geography
specific licensing
How well
Technology
is Defined
Venture
CRADA, Contract R&D,
Strategic Alliance
Option or
license for all IP
How well Application is Defined
Control over
Knowledge
and
Know-How
Buy all Rights,
Venture
Acquire Developer
Capital Exclusive
General License
Joint Venture
Exclusive Limited
License. CRADA,
Strategic Alliance
Non-Exclusive
License
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Technology
Control over Use
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PRODUCT
LIFE CYCLE
Fundamental/
Exploratory
Research
Applied
Research and
Development
Concurrent
Engineering
Manufacturing, Sales,
Supports
PostIntroduction
Improvement
SBIR
PHASE
Pre-Phase I
Phase I
Phase II
Phase III (and
new PrePhase I)
Phase III (and
new Phase I)
Expected
Results
Develop a distinct
new technology
connected to a
market need
Establish
technology’s
practicability,
market potential,
and plans for
development
Embody the
technology in
production
engineered
products and/or
processes
Get the product or
process quickly
accepted in the
market
Create long-term
value by
expanding
applications of the
technology
Demonstrable
Steps and/ or
Benefits
Technical proof of
the ideas, patent,
develop vision for
the technology
Patent if relevant
or not done; ready
plans for commercialization;
prototype, test
with key targets
Beta test with key
customers, unveil
commercial
version of the
technology
Hit take-off (5% 20% penetration)
Obtain substantial
financial returns
and establish the
infrastructure for
supporting a
product family
Relevant
Stakeholders
Research partners,
technical experts
in the field
Technical experts,
potential investors
and other funding
sources, targets,
end users, opinion
leaders in key
entry niches
End-users, lead
customers, suppliers of platform
or complementary
technologies and
products, targets,
opinion leaders
Targets, endusers, customers,
opinion leaders,
others in value
network
Company
management,
others in value
network,
customers,
opinion leaders,
R&D partners
Expanding upon V. Jolly, Commercializing New
Technologies, Harvard Business School Press, 1997
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12
10
Hits
8
Basic Research
Applied Research
Engineering Development
Concurrent Engineering
Production and Sales
6
4
2
0
1
2
4
6
Year
8
9
8
7
Basic Research
Applied Research
Engineering Development
Concurrent Engineering
Production and Sales
Hits
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
4
6
8
Year
12
10
Basic Research
Applied Research
Engineering Development
Concurrent Engineering
Production and Sales
Hits
8
6
4
2
0
1
ForesightScience &
Technology
2
4
Year
6
8
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Market Familiarity and Track Record
Context Capacity
Insignificant Sales
and Sales Force
Divest or
Monitor
Strong
Goodwill and
Brand Loyalty
All
Necessary
Capacity
ForesightScience &
Technology
Partner
Control
Weak Technology
In-House Expertise
Strong R&D Team
and IP Portofolio
Domain Capacity
Technology Familiarity and Track Record
45
ForesightScience &
Technology
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Target
Advice
Target
Testing
Idea – Design – Proof – Brass – Prototype – Product – Production – Sales – Distribution – Customer
of
of
Board
Engineering
Marketing
Support
Concept Feasibility
End User Testing
End User Advice
ForesightScience &
Technology
Adapted from
R. Megantz,
How to License
Technology,
Wiley, 1996
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Research 0
12/05
12/04
12/03
12/02
540
Financing 0
Design Policy and Management
12/01
12/00
Process Schedule (in days)
257
124
138
Functional Implementation and Engineering 10 120
Test Management
Manufacturing Planning & Control
Process and Equipment
367
90
457
444
640
95
852
Logistics and Disposal
Management 0
Distribution and Customer Services
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750
1005
730
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Process Contribution to Total Project Cost
(excl. Investments)
0.4
• The substantive
process drives the
cost calculation
Cost in % of Total
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
Dist & Srvc
Management
Log & Disp
Prc & Equip
Mfg Pl & Ctrl
Test Mgt
Impl & Eng
Design
Research
Financing
0
Net Operating Income/Loss and
Cummulated Cashflows with Breakeven
Net Operating Income/(Losses)
Net Difference of Cummulated Cashflows
400000000
350000000
300000000
250000000
200000000
150000000
100000000
50000000
ForesightScience &
Technology
44561
43830
43100
42369
41639
40908
40178
39447
38717
37986
37256
36525
0
-50000000
• The cost calculation,
together with the
revenue projections,
drives the net value
49
What Needs to be Done for JIT Delivery
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Technology
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Cost vs. Delays for all Risks along Value Chain
• Market risk is a probability
distribution for outcomes
30%
Resulting Cost Increases
• Technical and firm specific risk
is the basis for the discount
rate
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Resulting Delays
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Technology
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CUMULATIVE REVENUES
J - Curve
0$
Idea
Basic
Research
Applied
Research
Product
Development
Process
Engineering
Market
Introduction
TIME
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Technology
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Corporate
AAI
Applied Design Corporation
Agilient
Air Products and Chemicals
Allied Signal
American Research Corporation of Virginia
Arthur Anderson and Co.
Boeing Management Company
BRTRC, Inc.
Charm Sciences
Chemica Technologies, Inc.
Chemonics
Conductus
Concurrent Technologies Corp
Continuum Dynamics
Consultec
Corning
Crossbow Ventures
Coyote Found Candles
Dow Chemical
Environmental Toxicology Lab
Fayette Environmental
Foster Miller
General Dynamics Advanced Information
Systems
General Dynamics Defense Systems
Goodrich Aerospace
Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance
Company
Hoechst Celanese
IBM
I Am Fine
ICET, Inc.
Illinois Superconductor
InteCap Inc.
Infectec
Infolink
Intelligent Medical Imaging
InVision Technologies
Les Echos (France)
Laser Focus World
Litton System Inc.
Lockheed Martin Missiles & Fire Control
LMITCO
Microstrain, Inc.
NanoProducts Corporation
Nanoworks
Newport Corporation
Northwest Research Associates
Northrop Grumman Newport News
The Owen Group, Inc.
Phelps Dodge
Photonic Systems
ForesightScience &
Technology
Pratt & Whitney
PraxAir
ProMet Technologies, Inc.
UTD Incorporated Procter & Gamble
Phoenix Science & Technology
Quantum Magnetics
Red Raven
Science Applications International
Corp.
Sensor Research & Develop Corp.
Sionex Corporation
Space Works, Inc.
Technology Systems, Inc.
Telstar Int'l., Ltd.
Theorex Incorporated
Unisphere, Inc.
United Technologies Optical Division
University, Non-Profit, Foundation,
and Association
Arizona State University
Atlanta University Center
Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center
Boston University
Case Western Reserve University
Central Florida Innovation Corp.
Children’s Hospital of Boston
Consortium of Social Science Societies
Florida Atlantic University
Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech)
Harvard Medical School
Indiana University
International Society for Optical Engineering
Iowa State University
Henry M. Jackson Foundation
National Coalition for Science & Technology
National Collegiate Inventors and Innovators
Association
MCNC-RDI
San Diego State University Foundation
Research Foundation of the State University of
New York
Society for American Archaeology
Southern Illinois University
Stevens Institute of Technology
Teacher Pathfinder
Tufts
University of California at Irvine
U Mass STEP Program
University of Hawaii
University of Tennessee Research Corporation
Vanderbilt University
Government
Agency for International Development
Amherst, New York EDA
Ben Franklin Technology Partnership
(Pennsylvania)
CEA Valorisation S.A. (France)
Center for Innovative Technology (Virginia)
Department of Agriculture SBIR Program
Department of Commerce
-National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
-Technology Administration
-National Institute for Standards and Technology
Department of Defense
-Army Research Laboratory
-Communications and Electronics Command
-Medical Research & Material Command
-Naval Acquisition Reform Office
-Naval Aerospace Medical Research Laboratory
-NAVAIR SBIR Program
-Naval Air Warfare Center
-Naval Dental Research Institute
-Naval Medical R&D Command
-Naval Undersea Medical Research Laboratory
-Naval Surface Warfare Center
-Naval Underwater Weapons Center
-Office of Naval Research
-ONR SBIR Program
-Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business
Department of Education SBIR Program
Department of Energy
-Idaho National Engineering Laboratory
-Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
-Oak Ridge National Laboratory
-Savannah River National Laboratory
-SBIR Program
HHS Center for Disease Control
Department of the Interior
-Geological Survey
-Bureau of Reclamation
EPA
-Office of Cooperative Environmental Management
-SBIR Program
Licentia (Finland)
National Research Council (Canada)
National Science Foundation SBIR Program
New York State Science and Technology Foundation
Maryland Department of Community and Economic
Development
Maryland Technology Development Corp.
Ministry of Defense (Canada)
National Research Council (Canada)
Ohio Edison BioTechnology Center
Patuxent Partnership (Maryland)
Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy
Subset of customers. Not included are customers
serviced through our franchises in Canada and Chile or
our alliance partner in Finland
55
• Nothing happens
without a sale.
David Speser
• If opportunity
doesn’t knock, build
a door.
Milton Berle
• A well-defined
imagination is the
source of great
deeds.
Chinese Fortune Cookie
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Technology
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