Transcript Slide 1

Presentation of Survey Results for the
Jurupa Unified School District
July 28, 2014
July 2014
Survey Methodology
• Jurupa Unified School District Survey among 300 Likely
November 2014 Voters;
• Fielding conducted July 15-22, 2014, using live telephone
interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones.
o Interviews conducted in English and Spanish
• Overall Margin of Error is ± 5.6%.
Slide 2
July 2014
Language of Bond Measure Tested
Local Schools 21st Century Readiness Job Training, Upgrade and Repair
Measure: Shall Jurupa Unified School District upgrade career training and
instructional technology, repair aging classrooms, roofs, restrooms, electrical
systems, improve school safety and security, construct vocational facilities and
science and computer labs to meet current academic standards, by issuing
$144 million of bonds, at legal interest rates, with annual financial audits, and an
independent Citizen’s Oversight Committee, with all funds staying local and no
money for administrators’ salaries or pensions?
Slide 3
July 2014
Solid Majority Supports Bonds to Improve Local Schools
31%
Definitely yes
62%
31%
Probably yes
4%
Lean yes
1%%
Lean no
8%
Probably no
24%
16%
Definitely no
9%
Don't Know/NA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Slide 4
July 2014
Lower Bond Amount Increases Chances for Success
$98/Year or $8/Month ($176,300 Median AV)
$56/Year ($100K PV)
Definitely yes
40%
37%
Probably yes
Lean yes
$55/Year or $4.5/Month ($176,300 Median AV)
$31/Year ($100K PV)
22%
0%
Lean no
2%
Probably no
7%
23%
Total
Yes:
59%
1%
Total
No:
33%
Total
No:
30%
1%
3%
26%
Definitely no
27%
5%
7%
Undecided
0%
10%
Total
Yes:
63%
20%
30%
40%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Slide 5
July 2014
Top Priorities for a Bond – Train Students for Good-Paying Jobs Dominates
Now I am going to read you some elements that may be included in a bond measure for the Jurupa Unified School District.
On a scale of ONE to TEN, please tell me how important the element is, with a TEN being VERY important and a ONE
being NOT AT ALL important. You can use any number from ONE to TEN. (READ AND RANDOMIZE)
%10
Make sure schools have the
facilities to train students for
careers in good-paying jobs of the
future.
8.26
Construct vocational labs and
technology to train students in
skilled trades.
7.80
Improve security and safety in every
school, including upgrading fire
systems, lighting, fencing and
alarms and adding cameras.
35%
7.65
Update science labs and improve
classroom instructional technology.
41%
7.55
6.50
7.00
7.50
50%
34%
8.00
Slide 6
July 2014
Preparation for the Future, Keeping Funds Local and
Accountability Messages Resonate with Voters
Now, I’d like to read you some statements made by SUPPORTERS of the proposed bond measure in the Jurupa Unified
School District. After you hear each one, please tell me how convincing each statement is as a reason to vote for the
measure. Do you find the reason to be very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or not at all a convincing
reason to vote for the measure?
(PREPARE) We need to give our students the resources they need to make
sure they graduate high school and are prepared for college and good-paying
jobs. This measure will invest in science, technology and other areas to ensure
our students can compete for 21st century jobs.
(LOCAL FUNDS) This measure makes sure that our tax dollars will go directly
to helping local schools. Every penny from this measure will stay local and
benefit local students. And all spending decisions will be made by our local
community and Sacramento will have no say in how our money is spent.
50%
(GET WORSE) It will be less expensive to upgrade and repair aging school
buildings and classrooms now than in the future. If we don’t do something now,
the problems will only get worse and the repairs will be even more expensive to
complete.
76%
76%
45%
(ACCOUNTABILITY) This measure has tough accountability requirements. By
law, no money from this measure can be used for administrator salaries. And
mandatory independent audits and a citizens’ oversight committee will ensure
the money is spent as intended.
74%
41%
10%
Very Convincing
79%
49%
30%
50%
Somewhat Convincing
70%
90%
Slide 7
July 2014
Initial Vote to Final Vote Comparison After Information
Suggests Opposition Can Have Impact
Final Vote
($144 Million Bond)
Initial Vote
($144 Million Bond)
31%
Definitely yes
33%
57%
62%
31%
Probably yes
Lean yes
24%
4%
3%
1%
Lean no
1%
8%
Probably no
10%
24%
Definitely no
16%
Don't know/NA
9%
0%
10%
22%
32%
7%
20%
30%
40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Slide 8
July 2014
Support For School Bond by
Gender & Age
Age
Gender
+30
+45
+69
+23
+36
+38
80%
80%
70%
65%
60%
55%
59%
60%
57%
50%
55%
40%
34%
30%
29%
31%
20%
22%
20%
10%
11%
0%
Men
Women
18-39
Yes
40-49
No
50-64
65+
Slide 9
July 2014
Support For School Bond by Party & Ethnicity
Party
+63
70%
+8
Ethnicity
+45
+28
+57
77%
73%
60%
61%
55%
56%
50%
47%
40%
39%
30%
28%
20%
10%
14%
16%
16%
0%
Democrats Republicans
White
Ind.
Yes
No
Latino
Slide 10
July 2014
Support for School Bond by Parents and Homeownership
Parents of
Children Under 18
+47
Homeownership
+34
+28
+57
80%
74%
70%
69%
60%
59%
55%
56%
50%
40%
30%
20%
22%
28%
25%
17%
10%
0%
Parents
Non-parents
Own
Yes
No
Rent
Slide 11
July 2014
Recommendations and Next Steps
• Recommendation: Move forward with a school bond for the
November 2014 ballot
o A 55% supermajority needed to pass, bond measure currently
polling at 62%.
o Good support at $144 million dollar amount, but a lower dollar
amount (i.e. $85 million bond) increases chance of success,
especially if there is opposition to a measure.
• Finish remaining focus group presentations to key
stakeholders and leaders to ensure all concerns and
questions related to the bond measure are addressed
• Finalize project list, authorization amount, tax rate and 75
word ballot statement
• Board votes to place measure on the ballot prior to August
8th deadline.
Slide 12
July 2014
For More Information About This Poll,
Contact:
Ben Tulchin and Corey O’Neil
(415) 874-7441
[email protected]
[email protected]
www.tulchinresearch.com
182 Second Street, Suite 400
San Francisco, CA 94105
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter
www.twitter.com/TulchinResearch
www.facebook.com/TulchinR
Slide 13