Transcript Document

HAMA
2 October 2009
Bobby Bowers
Smith Travel Research /
STR Global
Presentation Outline
• Global / U.S. Overview
• Chain Scales
• Markets
• Pipeline
• 2009 / 2010 Forecast
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Global RevPAR
% Change
August 2009 YTD
Europe €
UK £
H1 08
2.5%
H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD
-0.4% -5.1% -19.4%
YE 08 09 YTD
-0.4% -11.1%
Asia Pacific $
H1 08
12.5%
United States $
H1 08
1.6%
YE 08
-1.9%
09 YTD
-18.3%
ME & A $
H1 08
25.7%
YE 08
17%
09 YTD
-15.9%
YE 08
1.8%
09 YTD
-28.4%
Total United States
Key Performance Indicators Percent Change
Full Year 2008 / August 2009 YTD
10
5
2008
YTD 2009
2.6 3.2
2.5
0
-1.8
-1.8
-5
-4.2
-7.4
-10
-9.0
-10.3
-15
-20
-18.3
-25
Supply
Demand
Occ
ADR
RevPAR
Total United States
Weekday / Weekend Percent Change
August 2009 YTD
10
Weekday
Weekend
5
0
-5
-6.3
-10
-15
-8.9
-8.8
-12.0
-14.5
-20
-19.9
-25
Occ
Weekends = Friday / Saturday
ADR
RevPAR
Total United States
Quarterly RevPar Percent Change / 2007 - 2Q 09
10
5.3
5
5.6
6.2
6.0
2.0
1.4
0
-1.1
-5
-10
-9.8
-15
-20
-17.3
-17.7
-19.5
-25
1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 7/8 09
Total United States
Room Supply/Demand Percent Change
Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2009
6
4
3.1%
2
0
-2
-4
-1.1%
Supply % Change
-6
- 4.8%
Demand % Change
-6.6%
-8
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
Total United States
Occupancy/ADR Percent Change
Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2009
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
1989
Occ % Chg
ADR % Chg
0.1%
-3.4%
-4.7%
-6.8%
-6.3%
-9.5%
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Total United States
RevPAR Percent Change
Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2009
15
10
5
0
-5
-2.7%
-10
-15
RevPAR % Chg
-10.5%
- 15.1%
-20
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
Chain Scales
STR Chain Scales
Selected Brands by Category
• Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont
• Upper Upscale – Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Sheraton
• Upscale – Courtyard, Springhill Suites, Crowne Plaza
• Midscale with F&B – Holiday Inn, Best Western, Quality
• Midscale no F&B – Hampton, TownePlace, H.I. Express
• Economy – Days Inn, Red Roof, Econolodge
Chain Scales
Supply/Demand Percent Change
August 2009 YTD
15
10
9.1
8.9
7.2
4.9
5
1.3
0
-5
-2.1
-4.9
-1.5
-4.7
-5.2
-10
-15
-8.6
Supply
Demand
-12.8
-20
Luxury
Upper
Upscale
Upscale
Mid w F&B
Mid wo F&B
Economy
Chain Scales
Occupancy/ADR Percent Change
August 2009 YTD
0
-5
-5.0
-5.8
-10
-9.7
-5.9
-9.9
-10.2 -9.9
-11.6
-11.4
-11.2
-12.6
-15
Occupancy
ADR
-16.8
-20
Luxury
Upper
Upscale
Upscale
Mid w F&B
Mid wo F&B
Economy
Chain Scale
Occupancy Percent
August 2009 YTD
70
65
64.6
61.7
62.5
60
58.0
55
51.9
51.0
50
45
40
35
30
Luxury
Upper
Upscale
Upscale
Midscale
W/FB
Midscale
w/o FB
Economy
Chain Scales
Average Daily Rate
August 2009 YTD
275
$241.44
225
175
$142.31
125
$108.73
$84.22
$86.42
75
$51.88
25
Luxury
Upper
Upscale
Upscale
Midscale
W/FB
Midscale w/o
FB
Economy
United States – Upper Tier Hotels
28 Day Moving Average
Group & Transient Demand % Change
Jan 31, 2008 – September 26th, 2009
20
Group Demand
Transient Demand
10
0
-10
-20
-30
1/31/08
9/26/09
United States – Upper Tier Hotels
28 Day Moving Average
Group & Transient ADR % Change
Jan 31, 2008 – September 26th, 2009
10
0
-10
Group ADR
Transient ADR
-20
1/31/08
9/26/09
Total U.S.
RevPAR - Monthly Percent Change
January 2008 – September 2009
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
2008
September based on reporting through 9.26
F
M
A
M
J
2009
J
A
S
Total U.S.
Average Daily Rate - Monthly Percent Change
January 2008 – September 2009
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
2008
September based on reporting through 9.26
M
A
M
J
2009
J
A
S
Total U.S.
Occupancy - Monthly Percent Change
January 2008 – September 2009
5
0
-5
-10
-15
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
2008
September based on reporting through 9.26
F
M
A
M
J
2009
J
A
S
Market Performance
Top 25 Markets versus rest of U.S.
Key Performance Indicators Percent Change
August 2009 YTD
10
5
Top 25
Rest of U.S.
3.1 3.2
0
-5
-6.8
-7.7 -7.2
-10
-10.5 -10.2
-11.9
-15
-13.6
-18.7
-20
-25
Supply
Demand
Occ
ADR
RevPAR
Key 15 Markets
RevPar Percent Change
August YTD 2009
DC
-7.1
HOUSTON
-16.0
U.S.
-18.3
HONOLULU
-18.4
BOSTON
-18.7
DALLAS
-19.5
ATLANTA
-19.7
ANAHEIM
-19.9
ORLANDO
-20.6
SAN FRANCISCO
-22.4
LOS ANGELES
-22.4
-22.8
MIAMI
SAN DIEGO
-23.1
CHICAGO
-26.0
PHOENIX
NEW YORK
-27.4
-32.4
-35
-30
Excludes Las Vegas
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
15 Markets outside the Top 25
RevPar Percent Change
August YTD 2009
Bismarck, ND
7.9
4.9
Orangeburg/Sumter, SC
3.4
Fargo, ND
3.1
2.6
Evansville-Henderson, IL
Gallup/Grants, NM
1.9
Lynchburg, VA
0.6
Rapid City, SD
-0.2
Pensacola, FL
Charleston, WV
-1.0
Shreveport, LA
-1.0
-1.2
Lubbock, TX
Branson, MO
-1.8
Georgetown/Richmond, KY
-1.8
-2.0
Tacoma/Olympia, WA
-2.2
Corbin/London, KY
-5
0
5
10
Pipeline
Total United States
Active Development Pipeline - Rooms
Change From Prior Year
Aug 2009
Aug 2008
Change
% Chg
In Construction
130,471
195,947
-65,476
-33.4%
“Planned” Pipeline
345,050
463,843
-118,793
-25.6%
Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases
Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
Total U.S.
Hotel Rooms Under Construction and Percent Change
January 2003 –August 2009
UC Rooms
% Change
250
80
60
200
40
150
20
0
100
-20
50
-40
0
2003/01
-60
2004/01
2005/01
2006/01
2007/01
2008/01
2009/01
Under Construction room percentage change measured against same month, prior year.
Total United States
Rooms Under Construction by Scale – In Thousands
August 2009
60
50
43.0
40
34.7
30
20.3
20
12.8
10
9.0
5.7
5.0
0
Luxury
Upper Upscale
Upscale
Mid w F&B
Source: STR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
Mid w/o F&B
Economy
Unaffiliated
Top Brands – Rooms Under Construction
August 2009 – in Thousands
Hampton Inn
11.4
H.I. Express
8.6
Holiday Inn
5.6
Hilton G.I.
5.3
5.1
Springhill
Comfort
5.0
Marriott
4.9
Fairfield
4.4
Courtyard
4.3
4.1
Candlewood
0
5
10
Top 10 brands = 45% U.S. under construction rooms
15
Top 10 MSAs – Rooms Under Construction
August 2009 – in Thousands
New York
13.1
Las Vegas
7.0
Houston
5.7
San Antonio
4.4
4.1
DC
Dallas
3.7
Orlando
3.5
Phoenix
3.3
Atlanta
3.3
2.9
Los Angeles
0
5
39% of all under construction rooms
10
15
Top 10 MSAs
Rooms Under Construction - % Existing Supply
August 2009
San Antonio
10.7
New York
8.1
Tulsa
8.1
Raleigh
7.9
7.4
Houston
Indianapolis
6.5
Phoenix
5.6
Oklahoma City
5.6
Austin
5.5
5.3
Richmond, VA
0
5
10
15
Projections
U.S. Economic Outlook
Blue Chip Economic Indicators – September 2009
2008
2009F
2010F
Real GDP
+0.4%
-2.6%
+2.4%
CPI
+3.8%
-0.5%
+1.8%
Corporate Profits
-11.8%
-8.1%
+9.8%
Disp Personal Income
+0.5%
+0.8%
+1.7%
5.8%
9.2%
9.8%
Unemployment Rate
Total U.S.
Hotel Rooms Sold vs. Real GDP Change
Quarterly Change – 1988 to 2009 2Q
GDP % Chg
Demand % Chg
6
8
5
6
4
4
3
2
2
1
0
0
-2
-1
-4
-2
-6
-3
-4
-8
-5
-10
1988q1
1991q1
1994q1
1997q1
2000q1
2003q1
2006q1
Real GDP and Lodging Demand measured against same quarter, prior year.
Real GDP left scale / Rooms sold right scale.
20091Q
Real GDP Growth Forecast
Quarterly Percent Change vs. Same Quarter Prior Year
5
4
3
2.6
2.6
2.7
2Q 10
3Q 10
4Q 10
1.7
2
1
0
0.0
-1
-0.6
-2
-1.9
-3
-2.5
-3.3
-4
-3.9
-5
3Q 08
4Q 08
1Q 09
2Q 09
3Q 09
4Q 09
1Q 10
Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators – 10 September 2009
Total United States
Key Performance Indicators Percent Change
Full Year 2009 & 2010 Forecast
10
5
2009 F
3.0
1.8
2010 F
1.3
0
-0.6
-3.4
-5
-4.0
-5.5
-8.4
-10
-9.7
-15
-17.1
-20
Supply
Demand
Occ
ADR
RevPAR
Total US Industry
Consecutive Quarterly Declines
Key Indicators
1990/
1991
2001/
2002
Current
(Q2-09)
Estimate
2008/09
Demand
3
5
6
9
Occupancy
7
6
7
11
ADR
0
5
3
9
RevPAR
5
5
4
9
Room Revenue
2
5
4
7
Total United States
Supply, Demand & Occupancy Forecast
Q3 2009 – Q4 2010
5
3.0
2.7
2.4 2.0
2.6
1.7
3.0
1.7
1.3
0.9
0.2
0
-0.8
-1.0
-1.8
-3.4 -3.3
-5
-4.5
-7.3
-10
Supply
Demand
Occupancy
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
Total United States
ADR, RevPar and Room Revenue Forecast
Q3 2009 – Q4 2010
5
1.5
0.4
0.2
0
-2.2
-5
-1.3
-1.5
-4.2
-4.4
-5.6
-6.1
-6.5
-8.7
-10
-9.9
-10.6
-11.0
-13.0
-15
-15.0
-17.5
-20
ADR
RevPar
Revenue
Total United States
Occupancy Percent
2003 – 2010P
70
63.1
63.3
63.1
61.4
60.4
60
59.2
55.4
55.1
2009P
2010P
50
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Total United States
Average Daily Rate
2003 – 2010P
$125
$106.78
$104.07
$97.99
$100
$96.43
$91.16
$93.16
$86.40
$82.95
$75
$50
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009P
2010P
Total US Room Rates
Actual vs. Inflation Adjusted
2000 – 2010E
110
$106.65
If year 2000 ADR had
increased by CPI each year…
$105.90
$107.81
$102.71
$99.86
100
$96.74
Nominal ADR
Yr 2000, Grown by CPI
$93.57
$91.15
$89.11
90
$87.73
$85.30
106.78
96.43
93.16
20
08
20
09
E
20
10
E
104.07
20
07
97.99
20
06
91.16
20
05
86.40
20
04
82.95
20
03
82.82
20
02
84.06
20
01
20
00
80
85.29
STR Chain Scale Forecast
Segment
2009
RevPar Chg
2010
RevPar Chg
Luxury
-25.0 / -28.0
-7.0 / -10.0
Upper Upscale
-18.0 / -21.0
-1.0 / -4.0
Upscale
-16.0 / -19.0
-5.0 / -8.0
Midscale with F&B
-12.5 / -15.5
-3.0 / -6.0
Midscale without F&B
-10.5 / -13.5
+1.0 / -2.0
Economy
-13.0 / -16.0
Flat / -3.0
Forecast produced August 2009
Takeaways
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Decline is global
Supply growth still an issue
Demand declines may be near bottom
ADR weakness continues
“Less Worse” 2H 2009
Moderate improvement 2010
Meaningful growth anticipated 2011