Transcript Science versus pseudoscience

General Astronomy
Pseudoscience
• Crackpots, Fads and Fallacies
– There are always individuals or groups
who use what appears to be science (or
religion) to mask some very odd ideas.
– Some are actual beliefs
– Some are scams
– None are science
Some old Pseudosciences
•Flat Earth
•Spiritualism
•Hollow Earth
– Old Version
– New Version
•Astrology
•Dowsing
- Ghosts, Elves, Fairies
-The Occult
-Speaking to the Dead
•Things that go bump in the night
•Vampires
•Lycanthropy
•Zombies
•Bigfoot (Sasquatch/Yeti)
•Trolls, Goblins and the 'Monster Under the Bed'
Hollow Earth
The Old Version
The 'New' Version
And some new
•Crop Circles
•UFOs
– Alien Abduction
– Area 51
•TeleRemoteViewing
•N-Waves
•Cold Fusion
• Anti-vaccination
•Nasca
•Creationism
•Intelligent Design
• Magnetic bracelets
•Scientology
• Feng Shui
•Human/Animal Psychics
– Communicators
–Speaking to the Dead
•Homeopathy
(they’re back…)
–Magnetic water, anyone?
–HeadOn
A Closer Look: Crop Circles
They started pretty simple
Then got a bit fancier
A Closer Look: Crop Circles
And fancier
Til they don't need circles
anymore
A Closer Look: Crop Circles
Amazing…Spooky…Weird!
Alien Technology in action!
Or a guy with a rope and a
piece of 4’x4’ plywood
A Closer Look: Nasca
A Closer Look: Anti-Vaccination
• In 2000, measles was declared eliminated in the
United States.
• The anti-vaccine movement has managed
to breathe life into nearly vanquished
childhood diseases: measles, mumps,
rubella, or chickenpox, pertussis
(whooping cough)
• Let’s just look at measles
Looks itchy…
It is!
Do Vaccines help?
• You decide…
Anti-Vaccination Effects
So What started this?
In 1998, Dr. Andrew Wakefield published an article supposedly linking
the MMR vaccine and autism.
In 2010, Lancet retracted the
article. Why?
An investigation published by
the British medical journal BMJ
concluded the study's author,
Dr. Andrew Wakefield,
misrepresented or altered the
medical histories of all 12 of the
patients whose cases formed the
basis of the 1998.
Most of his co-authors withdrew
their names from the study in
2004 after learning he had been
paid by a law firm that intended
to sue vaccine makers.
Britain stripped Wakefield of his
medical license – He has moved to
Texas and has a following there.
How did anti-vax get rolling?
• Celebrity help of course. Like a lot of fads a ‘big name’
has some importance to people who forget they are not
experts in the field they are supporting.
• Jenny McCarthy, Katie Couric, Michelle Bachmann have
swallowed the nonsense and pushed it out
– All have medical degrees and are able to think critically about
detailed scientific results! (Not!)
• As a result we are losing the ‘herd immunity’
• Learn to think critically (before you give up eating
bacon try to think about the fact that the anti-bacon
spokesperson is Porky Pig).
A Closer Look: UFOs
Gort!
Klaatu barada nikto!
Close Encounters Of The Jersey Kind?
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (CBS) ― Click to enlarge Strange lights were seen
hovering over Morris County in New Jersey on Jan. 5, 2009. CBS
"Red lights in the sky over the Morristown-Morris Township area, 5 red
lights in a weird pattern over the area," one viewer wrote.
"The formation of 5 lights were first noticed over Cedar Knolls and then
as they approached the Madison/Morris Township border the rear half
of the formation slowly faded and appeared to drop from the sky and
then the front part of the formation went out one by one," wrote
another
Nothing more than a prank,
roadside flares attached to helium balloons.
A Closer Look: UFOs
Kenneth A. Arnold— a private pilot made what is generally
considered the first widely reported UFO sighting in the United
States.
On June 24, 1947, Arnold said he saw nine unusual objects flying in a
chain near Mount Rainier, Washington while he was searching for
a missing military aircraft. He described the objects as almost
blindingly bright when they reflected the sun's rays, their flight
as "erratic" ("like the tail of a Chinese kite"), and flying at
"tremendous speed".
Kenneth Arnold hadn't reported seeing flying saucers.
In a memoir of the incident for the First International UFO
Congress in 1977 Arnold revealed the flying saucer label arose
because of a "great deal of misunderstanding" on the part of the
reporter who wrote the story up for the United Press. Bill
Bequette asked him how the objects flew and Arnold answered
that, "Well, they flew erratic, like a saucer if you skip it across
the water." The intent of the metaphor was to describe the motion
of the objects not their shape. Arnold stated the objects "were
not circular."
A Closer Look: UFOs
Better protect your thoughts
A Closer Look: Fairies
The Cottingley Fairies
In 1917, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
saw photographs some young
girls took in the glen behind
their home of themselves in the
company of fairies.
He wrote to the girls and to their father
for permission to speak to the girls,
aged 10 and 14, to question them about
their experiences and for use of the
photos for a book he was writing proving
the existence of Fairies.
The Cottingley Fairies
What convinced Conan Doyle?
It wouldn't have convinced
Sherlock Holmes!
The World didn’t end December 2012!
• ‘Doomsday’ rumors had been
proliferating, fueled by recent
books, shows, and films
• Most rumors cited the ‘end’ of
the Mayan ‘long count’ calendar
in December 21, 2012
• Doomsday scenarios included:
• Collision of a rogue planet
with Earth
• Violent solar storms
• Sudden violent ‘shifting’ of
continents and poles
• Sudden reversal of Earth’s
magnetic field
• ‘Galactic’ alignment
Artist rendition of two planets undergoing a
catastrophic collision. Such collisions do happen in
planetary systems, but are highly unlikely after the
system has formed.
Prepared for the Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society by David Brain and Nick
Schneider [email protected] - http://dps.aas.org/education/dpsdisc/ - Released 5 December, 2009
No!
• The Mayan long calendar did partly ‘reset’,
but the world did not end
• Like New Year’s (when both day & month reset), 13
(of at least 20) Mayan time increments reset in 2012
• The Mayans recorded recurring astronomical events
tied to the Sun, Moon, and visible planets - but did
not predict natural disasters or undiscovered
astronomical objects
Photo of a Mayan long count calendar
• There is no known ‘Planet X’ that will impact
Earth in the near future
• A few Pluto-like dwarf planets have been discovered
in our outer solar system recently, but none have
orbits that bring them inside ~35 AU
• A planet headed toward Earth would be easily visible
• Conspiracies in astronomy are unlikely, especially
given the large number of skilled amateurs (who
regularly pioneer new discoveries)
• Other ‘doomsday’ scenarios are similarly
far-fetched, or based on poor science
Artist’s conception of dwarf planet Eris.
From NASA / ESA / A. Schaller
Prepared for the Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society by David Brain and Nick
Schneider [email protected] - http://dps.aas.org/education/dpsdisc/ - Released 5 December, 2009
The Big Picture
• Many of these doomsday scenarios are not
new, but have been recycled for many years
• Ancient (and modern) astronomers could not
predict the future, beyond repeated events
(e.g. lunar cycles, eclipses, planetary
positions) based on observations
• One advantage of studying science at any
level is that one learns how to think
critically about any topic, such as the 2012
rumors
Movie poster for ‘2012’, released in November
2009. The movie features worldwide tectonic
activity and natural disasters, triggered by
the Sun.
Prepared for the Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society by David Brain and Nick Schneider
[email protected] - http://dps.aas.org/education/dpsdisc/ - Released 5 December, 2009
For More Information…
Web Resources and Press Releases
•
Astronomy Society of the Pacific - Astronomy Beat on-line column on 2012 by David
Morrison
http://www.astrosociety.org/2012/index.html
•
NASA Lunar Science Institute - Video by David Morrison - ‘The Truth about 2012’
http://www.vimeo.com/7463829
•
NASA - 11/06/09 - ‘2012: Beginning of the End or Why the World Won't End?’
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.html
•
National Geographic News - ‘2012: Six End-of-the-World Myths Debunked’
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/11/091106-2012-end-of-world-myths.html
Images
•
Slide 1 image from NASA / JPL-Caltech
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/spitzer/multimedia/spitzer-20090810.html
•
Slide 2 Mayan calendar photo from Wikipedia user ‘Maunus’, released to public domain
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lamojarra-inscription.jpg
•
Slide 2 Eris image from NASA / ESA / A. Schaller (STScI)
http://hubblesite.org/newscenter/archive/releases/2006/16/image/a
•
Slide 3 image from Sony Pictures 2012 Official Website
http://www.whowillsurvive2012.com/
Prepared for the Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society by David Brain and Nick Schneider
[email protected] - http://dps.aas.org/education/dpsdisc/ - Released 5 December, 2009
So….
Can all this stuff be TRUE?
When pigs fly!!
This says it all…
Why do people believe this stuff?
• Anecdotal (Testimonial) evidence
– Testimonials and vivid anecdotes are one of the most popular
and convincing forms of evidence presented for beliefs in
the supernatural, paranormal, and pseudoscientific.
– Nevertheless, testimonials and anecdotes in such matters
are of little value in establishing the probability of the
claims they are put forth to support.
• Anecdotes are unreliable for various reasons. Stories are prone
to contamination by beliefs, later experiences, feedback,
selective attention to details, and so on. Most stories get
distorted in the telling and the retelling. Events get
exaggerated. Time sequences get confused. Details get
muddled.
• Stories of personal experience with paranormal or supernatural
events have little scientific value. If others cannot experience
the same thing under the same conditions, then there will be no
way to verify the experience. If there is no way to test the
claim made, then there will be no way to tell if the experience
was interpreted correctly.
Why do people believe this stuff?
• Wishful thinking
– Interpreting facts, reports, events, perceptions, etc.,
according to what one would like to be the case rather than
according to the actual evidence.
• Communal reinforcement
– The process by which a claim becomes a strong belief through
repeated assertion by members of a community.
• The process is independent of whether the claim has been
properly researched or is supported by empirical data significant
enough to warrant belief by reasonable people.
– Mass media contributes to the process by uncritically
supporting the claims.
• Often, however, the mass media provides tacit support for
untested and unsupported claims by saying nothing skeptical about
even the most outlandish of claims.
– Celebrities pushing the nonsense
• Because a person is a talented actor, singer, or just a celebrity doesn’t
mean that they are experts in the field
Why do people believe this stuff?
• Confirmation bias
– A type of selective thinking whereby one tends to
notice and to look for what confirms one's beliefs,
and to ignore, not look for, or undervalue the
relevance of what contradicts one's beliefs.
– A tendency to do this over time unjustifiably
strengthens your belief in the relationship.
• Self-deception
– The process or fact of misleading ourselves to
accept as true or valid what is false or invalid. Selfdeception, in short, is a way we justify false beliefs
to ourselves.
• Have you watched some of the first auditions on “American
Idol?”
A Guide for Identifying the Idiots
 Don't Confuse me with the facts!
 Simple answers to complex questions.
 'Scientific' buzzwords
 Playing the Underdog
 Conspiracy Theories
 Playing on fear and/or emotion
 Is the hypothesis at risk?

Do they research?

Do they publish?
Don't Confuse me with the facts!
Ignore, deny or interpret the facts in such a way
that the hypothesis seems true.
Remember our friends, the Flat Earthers?
Simple answers to complex questions
• The Universe is rather large.
• Nature is complex and wonderful.
• Therefore, trivial explanations are always
suspect.
– Creationists note that the Hubble Space
Telescope' can see to the beginnings of the
Universe.' So if there is a beginning, then it
must be the Beginning that they promote.
• Nice and simple, but not a proof
– The pseudosciences nearly always point to the
gaps in our knowledge
'Scientific' Buzzwords
Beware of ads, etc., using fancy wording such as:
–
–
–
–
–
Quantum
Vibrations
Essence
Zero-cost energy (free energy)
Aura
For example
This magnificent product will sense your personal quantum
vibration and induce a harmonic which will balance your
essence, bringing your meridianal pathways into a natural,
soothing alignment rejecting dissonance clearing your aura
and curing your hangover, athlete's foot and halitosis?
Playing the Underdog
"I'm just like Galileo, the establishment is
persecuting me for my ideas."
Yeah, right.
Conspiracy Theories
Insert from list
• The __________
is conspiring to
hide the TRUTH from the public
Government
Church
Big Business
Mysterious Cabals
Aliens
???
Conspiracy Theories
There's nothing the media and the scientific world
like better than to blow the lid off some deep,
dark secrets.
This would make the reporter or scientist world
famous.
If someone is trying to hide something, someone else
is trying to expose it!
Playing on fear and/or emotion
How many of you have hesitated – just
a bit – before throwing out that chain
letter that threatened Bad Luck if
you broke the chain?
Or did you send it to 10 friends?
Use of emotional, religious, or other beliefs
Is the hypothesis at risk?
If the hypothesis is not at risk; where you can, at
least in principle, find a way to prove it wrong,
then it is not a science.
And finally
• Do they do research?
– Are you kidding?
• Do they publish?
– Only for the public and themselves ('Preaching
to the choir')
– Heavy propaganda
– Obscure references
The Scientific Method and not so scientific
Real Science
"The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one
that heralds new discoveries, is not 'Eureka!' (I found
it!) but 'That's funny ...' "
Isaac Asimov
Revolutionary theories like the Special and General Theories of
Relativity and Quantum Theory which change our way of
thinking are few and far between. Usually these come about
by an experiment showing things which defy explanation by
the existing theories.
Even then, the old theories are not lost, they simply have their
applicable range better defined…
Classical Mechanics [Slow]  Special Relativity [Fast]
Gravitation [moderate mass]  General Relativity [Huge mass]
Classical Physics [macroscopic]  Quantum Physics [atomic]
They still work, just in their proper realm.
And Now…
Presenting …
From the far reaches of the Globe
For your entertainment, education
and amusment
Wackos On The Web
(Selected) Wackos On The Web
www.onelight.com
www.trvuniversity.com
www.zetatalk.com
www.dowsers.org
www.paoweb.com/umacexp.htm
www.marlana.org
www.synergyforlife.com
mypage.direct.ca/j/jliving/landmine.htm
www.angeltherapy.com/
www.sonyafitzpatrick.com/
www.jacquelinestallone.com
www.remedydevices.com
www.tfes.org
Antidotes to Idiocy
Debunkers and Skeptics:
www.randi.org
www.doubtfulnews.com
www.quackwatch.org
www.badastronomy.com
www.skepticreport.com/general/index.htm
www.csicop.org
www.guardian.co.uk/life/badscience/
www.skepdic.com
www.skepchick.org
www.whatstheharm.net
www.senseaboutscience.org.uk
Finding the Kooks:
www.crank.net
home.swbell.net/drt1/pseudo.html